General data and outcomes
From October 2017 to April 2019, a total of 136 patients were screened and 73 patients were enrolled in the study (Figure 1). Baseline characteristics of the included patients are listed in Table 1. Admission diagnoses of the patients are summarized in Table 1. There are no differences regarding TIMP-2*IGFBP7 levels at enrollment and at CRRT discontinuation between the patients of different pathogeny. 45 patients were successfully weaned from CRRT (61.6%), and 34 patients had renal recovery (46.6%) (Figure 1). 20.5% of cohort died during their ICU stay.
Identification of successful CRRT discontinuation
There were no differences regarding different clinical and laboratory variables, including mean arterial blood pressure, PCT, and lactate, between the successful and unsuccessful CRRT discontinuation groups (Table 2). However, the TIMP-2*IGFBP7 levels at enrollment and at CRRT discontinuation were significantly lower in patients in which CRRT discontinuation was successful, and urine output was significantly increased in this patient group compared to patients in which CRRT discontinuation failed (Table 2). The CRRT treatment duration was significantly longer in patients who had a TIMP-2*IGFBP7 concentration > 2 (ng/ml)2/1000 at enrollment (9.93±1.59 days versus 5.43±0.66 days, P=0.013).
The successful CRRT discontinuation more likely in patients with a negative TIMP-2*IGFBP7 at enrollment (82.4%) compared to TIMP-2*IGFBP7-positive patients (52.9%; P=0.057) (Table 3). The successful discontinuation (p=0.001) and renal recovery rate (p=0.009) was significantly higher in TIMP-2*IGFBP7-negative patients at CRRT discontinuation compared to TIMP-2*IGFBP7-positive patients at this time point (Table 3). Patients with a TIMP-2*IGFBP7 level <2 (ng/ml)2/1000 at enrollment had a significantly higher successful CRRT discontinuation rate compared to patients with TIMP-2*IGFBP7 levels >2(ng/ml)2/1000 at enrollment (72.5% versus 42.9%; p=0.027) (Table 3). The CRRT treatment time was significant longer in patients with a TIMP-2*IGFBP7 concentration >2(ng/ml)2/1000 at enrollment than patients with a TIMP-2*IGFBP7 level <2 (ng/ml)2/1000 at enrollment (9.93±1.59 days VS. 5.43±0.66 days, P=0.013).
In univariate regression analysis, we found a significant association between successful discontinuation of CRRT and TIMP-2*IGFBP7-negative at CRRT stop, and TIMP-2*IGFBP7 concentration <2 (ng/ml)2/1000 at enrollment.
When biomarker levels were measured at CRRT discontinuation, the risk of unsuccessful CRRT discontinuation was nearly 5 times higher in TIMP-2*IGFBP7-positive patients compared to TIMP-2*IGFBP7-negative patients (OR 4.879, 95% CI 1.055-22.565, P=0.043), whereas the unsuccessful CRRT discontinuation was 3.5 times higher in patients with a TIMP-2*IGFBP7 concentration >2 (ng/ml)2/1000 compared to patients with a TIMP-2*IGFBP7 concentration <2 (ng/ml)2/1000 patients (OR 3.515, 95% CI 1.267-9.755, P=0.016) when measured at enrollment.
When we substituted TIMP-2*IGFBP7-negative at CRRT stop and TIMP-2*IGFBP7 concentration <2 (ng/ml)2/1000 at enrollment into the multivariate Cox regression formula, we found a significant association between successful discontinuation of CRRT and TIMP-2*IGFBP7-negative at CRRT stop (RR 0.436, 95% CI 0.202-0.939, P=0.034).
There was no multiple collinearity in our model by calculating the variance inflation factor (VIF) cut-off below 10.
Among the 29 patients, who had an urine output less than 400ml at the moment when CRRT was stopped, successful CRRT discontinuation rate increased form 0% in biomarker-positive at CRRT discontinuation to 88.9% in biomarker-negative patients (P=0.000).
The AUC of the ROC curves for the TIMP-2*IGFBP7 concentrations at enrollment and discontinuation of CRRT for successful discontinuation of CRRT were 0.828 (95% CI 0.670-0.986; p=0.003) and 0.814 (95% CI 0.658-0.969; p=0.005) (Figure 2), with an optimal cut-off of 1.73 (ng/ml)2/1000 and 0.90 (ng/ml)2/1000, sensitivity 0.89 and 0.56, specificity 0.68 and 0.97, positive predictive value of 80.0% and 89.2%, and negative predictive value of 60.6% and 85.7%, respectively. The AUC of the ROC curve of the final model, including TIMP-2*IGFBP7 concentrations at enrollment and discontinuation of CRRT, was 0.882 (95% CI 0.720-0.998, p=0.001).
Identification of renal recovery
Patients in the renal recovery group had significantly lower TIMP-2*IGFBP7 levels at enrollment and at CRRT discontinuation as well as a significantly increased urine output compared to the patients in the non-recovery groups (Table 4). There were no differences regarding the other parameters between the recovery and non-recovery group (Table 4).
A non-statistically significant trend towards greater renal recovery in TIMP-2*IGFBP7 negative patients at enrolment. Renal recovery rate significantly increased from 21.4% in patients with a TIMP-2*IGFBP7 concentration >2(ng/ml)2/1000 at enrollment to 62.5% in patients with a TIMP-2*IGFBP7 concentration <2(ng/ml)2/1000 (P=0.003), and from 44.4% in biomarker-positive patients at CRRT discontinuation to 69.2% in biomarker-negative patients (P=0.009) (Table 3).
TIMP-2*IGFBP7 values were significantly higher in non-renal recovery patients compared to patients with renal recovery at enrollment and at the discontinuation of CRRT (Table 4).
The risk of non-renal recovery was 6 times higher when TIMP-2*IGFBP7 concentrations were >2 (ng/ml)2/1000 at enrollment compared to TIMP-2*IGFBP7 concentrations <2 (ng/ml)2/1000 patients (OR 6.111, 95% CI 2.021-18.481, P=0.001). By calculating the VIF cut-off below 10, there was no multiple collinearity between TIMP-2*IGFBP7 concentration at enrollment and at discontinuation of CRRT.
Kaplan-Meier curves revealed that TIMP-2*IGFBP7 concentration <2 (ng/ml)2/1000 at enrollment and TIMP-2*IGFBP7 turning negative were positively related to high renal recovery rate (Figure 3).