In this trial, we showed that the likelihood of a SARS-CoV-2 infection can be enforced through standard laboratory blood findings to a high degree. Several studies including meta-analyses recently focused on prediction of the severity of the disease derived from blood results.8,9,16 Our consideration to find a certain blood pattern to diagnose SARS-CoV-2 infection with standard blood parameters has been less studied.
To our knowledge, only three other trials comparing standard blood parameters between positive and negative cases are published to date.11,12,17 Similar to those studies, our study showed that leukopenia, eosinopenia, elevated erythrocytes and hemoglobin, and ferritin were detected to be among the best standard laboratory parameters to distinguish between COVID-19 positive from negative tested patients. Accordingly, similar patterns have been detected in positive COVID-19 patients with a severe compared to a mild form of the disease.8,9,16 The major differences of the three studies, which compared COVID-19 positive and negative patients, opposed to the reviews, which reported only on positive tested patients, were documented regarding leucocytes, neutrophils, and hemoglobin (Table 4).
In conformity with other publications 11,12,17, leucocytes were lower in COVID-19 positive than negative patients at the time of PCR testing, and so were neutrophils and lymphocytes; while severe compared to mild forms of COVID-19 tend to have higher leucocytes and neutrophils. As opposed to our findings, which showed a weak ability of NLR to discriminate between positive and negative (AUC=0.443); a raised NLR, which evolved from a raised neutrophil count as well as a lowered lymphocyte count, was already shown previously to be a prognostic value for endotracheal intubation and mortality predictor.13,14 A cut-off of 4.94 was used in the publication by Tatum et al. 14; above this value, the risk of being artificially ventilated or to die was increased. Notably, 89% of those patients were African Americans. A lower cut-off (2.33) was established in our study, which might be because only 15% of patients had a neutrophil count higher than 7.7x109/L. We are however unaware of any study using NLR as a pure discriminator between positive and negative COVID-19 diagnosis.
However, severity of illness appears to be less important regarding the other parameters, especially regarding eosinophils and CRP (Table 4). Like in other publications 12,17, our data also showed that eosinopenia was one of the significant predictive biomarkers for COVID-19 with a sensitivity of 47% and a specificity of 87%.
Li et al. 12 and our study showed an increased hemoglobin in COVID-19 positive patients, which is not in accordance with a lowered hemoglobin in patients with severe COVID-19 disease reported by two meta-analyses.8,16 In our data, the median hemoglobin was 13.5 g/dL, which did not much differ from Li’s data.12 In several other trials assessing the severity of disease and blood patterns, hemoglobin was shown to be below normal ranges.8,9,16 It can only be hypothesized why our cohort presented with a comparably high level of hemoglobin. Possibly, a degree of dehydration played a role at the time of presentation in the emergency department. Indeed, an average temperature of 38.0±0.9°C on presentation in 99 COVID-19 positive and 37.1±1.4°C in 103 COVID-19 negative patients, which was a significant difference, was detected in a subgroup analysis of 202 of our patients.
Not surprisingly, CRP was significantly elevated in all studies.11,12,17 In our patients, we set a new cut-off at 22 mg/dL, since the vast majority of patients had increased CRP values.
Similar blood patterns were also detected regarding ALT, AST, and LDH.8,9,12,16,17
Brinati et al. included 279 patients and developed a score for SARS-Cov-2 detection with an accuracy between 82% and 86%, and sensitivity between 92% and 95%.18 Applying our data including age, gender, leucocytes, neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, eosinophils, basophils, thrombocytes, CRP, AST, ALT, GGT, and LDH to Brinati’s tool, a quite high AUC (AUC=0.709, 95%CI 0.646-0.771; p<0.001), sensitivity (70.4%), specificity (71.3%), and NPV (79.9%), but less promising PPV (59.8 %) could be obtained. However, our model including 14 standard laboratory blood parameters reached better diagnostic performances in all areas (AUC=0.915, 95%CI 0.876-0.955); sensitivity (78.4%); specificity (87.3%), PPV (79.5%), and NNP (86.6%)), although, the most prominent parameters were leucocytes, eosinophils, hemoglobin, and CRP.
The following limitations of the study should be noted. The retrospective design with missing blood parameters are amongst the major limiting factors. Additionally, with the single time point evaluation, we were not able to retrieve information regarding progression of the disease. Furthermore, cytokines, especially interleukin-6, were not routinely measured, which may be better predictors, especially regarding the so-called ‚COVID-19 cytokine storm‘, to elucidate COVID-19 positive from negative patients. Another fact to consider is the heterogeneity of underlying diseases, which may also contribute to variations in our findings. On the other hand, such a heterogeneity may reflect reality during a pandemic situation best. Eventually, all test quality crucially depends on the quality of the manual specimen acquisition.19,20 PCR results tend to be more positive in patients with an increased viral load and with a shorter duration of the disease.21
Generally, as laboratory equipment supply develops, more PCR point-of-care diagnostics become available. It is nonetheless doubtful that - neither in the near, nor in the far future – PCR will entirely replace standard laboratory testing. Therefore, the question of a blood laboratory pattern, as specific as possible for COVID-19, remains relevant. Our investigation showed that especially leukopenia, eosinopenia, as well as elevated erythrocytes, hemoglobin, and ferritin are among the best markers to distinguish between COVID-19 positive and negative patients. Therefore, such biomarkers could be useful to facilitate rapid triage of potential COVID-19 patients.