A meticulous review of the consulted secondary archival data sources enabled us to discover a spectrum of hazardous events their spatial extent, magnitude, cause, and impact in Kashmir throughout the selected timeline. With the aid of an exhaustive research, comparative analysis, and data presented in the form of catalogues, graphs, and maps, an incisive insight into the disaster and hazard scenario across the valley of Kashmir in the entire twentieth century and early twenty-first century has been achieved. The period under review has experienced repeated natural hazard events of different types, several of which have turned into devastating disasters. In our analysis, basic trends concerning 1854 natural hazards witnessed by the Kashmir valley consisting of 1693 earthquakes, 39 floods, 65 landslides and 57 snow avalanches have been represented. Out of the total hazard events, 91.31% comprised of earthquakes, 2.10% floods, 3.50 landslides and 3.07 snow avalanches. Some of the entries in the table concern more than one phenomenon occurring concurrently, as cascading disasters amplifying the intensity (damage and loss) of the primary disasters, like the Kashmir Basin flood of 1900 which was succeeded by a Cholera epidemic killing 4225 people; the magnitude 7.8 earthquake of 4th April, 1905 (having epicentre in Kangra Valley, H.P.) that triggered landslides and caused large number of casualties and damage to buildings and hillside aqueduct networks; the flood of 1957 (August-September) which almost submerged the entire valley causing colossal damage to crops that in turn led to a famine; the September flood of 1992 which took place in the NW border districts of Kashmir and parts of PoK, was unprecedented in terms of fury and most devastating in terms of casualties, caused land sliding as an associated secondary disaster; 19th February, 2005 Waltengu snow avalanche triggered multiple landslides across the affected area adding to the damage and loss; 8th October, 2005 largest instrumented earthquake with epicenter in Muzzafarabad, PoK (Mw 7.6) lead to extensive land sliding causing large scale damage and loss in N-W border districts; 2006 (August-September) floods in J&K lead to associated disasters in the form of land and mud slides; 24th January, 2012 snow avalanche in Kupwara triggered landslides; 2nd September, 2014 floods land and mud slides; 26th July, 2015 cloud burst triggered landslides along the Baltal route to Amarnath; 20th March, 2017 flooding in Chadoora, Budgam induced mud slides; 6th April, 2017 snow avalanches along higher reaches in Kashmir and Ladakh caused landslides; and 14th January, 2020 snow avalanches in Ganderbal and Kupwara triggered land sliding events but no damage and loss was witnessed.
4.1.1. Extreme events and their impacts
The study discusses in detail disaster events witnessed within the timeline for which damage and loss have been reported in the form of fatalities, injuries, loss of cattle, damage to structures and crops, population affected, and other associated impacts. These comprise 121 events out of the total 1854, including 7 earthquakes, 17 floods, 49 landslides and 47 snow avalanches, which constitute 5.78%, 14.04%, 40.49% and 38.84% of the total severe events, respectively. This shows that even though the total number of earthquake events (1693) is very high only a small number (7) of these events actually turn into disasters i.e., 0.41% of the total occurrences. In case of floods out of the total 39 events 17 have turned into disasters which is about 43.58% of the total occurrences. Whereas, for landslide hazard, 49 events i.e., 75.38% of the total 65 occurrences and for snow avalanches, 47 events i.e., 82.45% of the total 57 occurrences show impacts. Although, a larger portion of the total landslide and snow avalanche events have impacts recorded but the magnitude of these impacts is far lesser than that of both earthquakes and floods individually, as can be established from the tables discussed in the following sections. This could be because landslides and snow avalanches are small scale and localized events with limited extent and impact as compared to earthquakes and floods thus, proving an inverse relationship between the magnitude and frequency of the hazard events. Standing true for the generalization, that the magnitude of a natural hazard event varies in its frequency of occurrence over time in an inverse power relationship (Jackson, 2013).
Earthquakes
History shows earthquakes don’t occur randomly but follow a general pattern and are distributed along geological faults across the globe (Bolt, 2003). The NEIC (National Earthquake Information Centre) locates about 20,000 earthquakes in the world each year and approximately 55 per day. According to records (since 1900), 16 major earthquakes are expected in a year, 15 in the magnitude 7 range and 1 magnitude 8.0 or greater (Bolt, 2003; USGS, 2020) which have been responsible for millions of deaths and an incalculable amount of damage to property over centuries. India has a long history of disastrous earthquakes, majorly documented from 1800’s (Iyenger et al., 1999) and about 59% of its total land area is prone to seismic hazards (BMTPC, 2006; MHA Report, 2015). The Himalayas originated due to continental collision between the Indian and the Eurasian plates (Searle et al., 1987, Le Fort, 1989, Searle, 1991, Thakur, 1992, 1998) and this orogenic process continues till date, as is indicated by significant small to moderate earthquakes and neo-tectonic movements along several thrusts and faults located in the region (Valdiya, 1998, 2001; Bilham, 2001). A major risk lies for more than 50 million people living near the seismically active Himalayan region (Bilham, 2001). The Himalayan zone is divided into three seismic gaps – Kashmir gap, Central gap and Assam gap. The Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand fall under Kashmir gap which is the highest earthquake prone zone (Gupta, 2012; Sharma, 2013).
Jammu and Kashmir, the western most extension of the Himalayan Mountain range in India, lies atop a web of active geological faults and thrusts on the boundary of the two colliding tectonic plates (Gavillot, et al., 2016; Shah, 2016), many of which have and are capable of producing earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or greater (Seeber and Armbruster 1981; Ni and Barazangi 1984; Thakur and Kumar 2002; Kayal, 2007). As a result of active participation of some faults in the ongoing collisional deformity the region shows active seismicity through small to moderate magnitude earthquakes at a continuous rate and occasionally large magnitude ones (Burbank and Johnson, 1983; Ambraseys and Bilham, 2000; Yin, 2006; Shah, 2018). According to seismic zonation map of India, the entire region has been classified as very high damage risk zone V (MSK IX or more) and high damage risk zone IV (MSK-VIII) (BIS Map, 2002; SDMP, 2017; Mahajan et al., 2010).
A major portion of the districts in Jammu and Kashmir fall under seismic zone V. Kathua, Leh, Ladakh and Tribal Territory districts lie in Zone IV, the districts Anantnag, Budgam, Bandipora, Baramulla, Ganderbal, Kishtwar, Kulgam, Kupwara, Pulwama, Ramban, Shopian and Srinagar occupy seismic V zone and the remaining under seismic IV zone (SDMP, 2017). Kashmir region is very important in relation to seismic activity in the Great Himalayas. Earthquakes in the Himalaya, in general, and in Kashmir, in particular, pose serious challenges. Historical records of the past centuries show that several big earthquakes have destroyed parts of the Himalayan settlements (and many earthquakes have possibly gone unrecorded). The history of earthquakes dates back to 1505 in this region (Ghaffar and Abbas, 2010) and the record of the past decades shows that the Kashmir region has been hit at least by one earthquake of magnitude 5 or larger every year or two (Sorkhabi, 2006). Among the most notable earthquake occurrences of the region are the N-W Kashmir earthquake of 2005 (Mw 7.6); 2002 Astore, PoK (Mw 6.4), Pattan earthquake of 1974 (Mw 7.4), Kangra earthquake of 1905 (Mw 7.8), 1885 (Magnitude 7.5), 1842 (Magnitude 7.5), 1555 (magnitude more than 8), 1505 (Magnitude 7.6) etc., (Sharma, 2013).
Earthquakes, if strong enough, are extensive events, with far-reaching impacts which cannot be contained by political and geographical boundaries, therefore, earthquakes with epicentres in and around the valley have been considered for this study while events with their epicentres within the Valley numbered 58 for the selected timeline (e.g., 1963 and 1967). In the present study of 120 years, the region witnessed intensive seismic activity where earthquakes were felt across the entire valley (Table 2), including 1693 events of magnitude 2.0 to 8.0, out of which 34 were strong earthquakes with magnitude greater than Mw 6.0 and 7 events have been reported with severe impacts (Table 3). The highest magnitude episode recorded for the time period is the earthquake of 4th April, 1905 with its epicentre in Kangra Valley, Himachal Pradesh and magnitude Mw 8.0. The record also shows some incidents of magnitude 7 and above viz., 1974 Pattan earthquake with 7.4 magnitude, 1975/19/01 Kinnaur District, HP (M 7.0), 19th January, 1996 Aksai Chin (M 7.1), 8th October, 2005 Muzzafarbad, Pakistan (M 7.6) and 26th October, 2015 Hindukush Mountain region, Afghanistan (M 7.5).
Table 3
Major earthquake events located in and around Jammu & Kashmir for which damage and loss were reported.
Date of occurrence
|
Location
|
Places affected
|
Magnitude (Mw)
|
Casualties
|
Associated impacts
|
Year
|
DD/MM
|
Place of occurrence
|
Long
|
Lat
|
Fatalities
|
Injuries
|
1905
|
04/04
|
Kangra Valley
|
76.16
|
34.04
|
J&K and Himachal Pradesh. Shocks felt in Leh, Kargil, Drass and Muzafarabad
|
8.0
|
20,000
|
-
|
53,000 domestic animals killed. 100,000 buildings damaged. Damage to hillside aqueducts networks.
|
1963
|
02/09
|
Budgam, Kashmir
|
74.64
|
33.93
|
Budgam, Kashmir
|
5.2
|
100
|
-
|
-
|
1975
|
19/01
|
Kinnaur District
|
78.43
|
32.45
|
J&K and Himachal Pradesh
|
7.0
|
47
|
-
|
-
|
1981
|
12/09
|
Gilgit Wazarat (Pakistan occupied Kashmir).
|
73.59
|
35.69
|
Shocks were felt in Srinagar (J&K, India) and in Peshawar and Rawalpindi (Pakistan)
|
6.3
|
220
|
2500
|
Unconfirmed reports of surface faulting.
|
2002
|
20/11
|
Astore Valley, Pakistan occupied Kashmir
|
74.60
|
35.00
|
Astore Valley, Pakistan occupied Kashmir
|
6.3
|
23
|
-
|
Damage to property.
|
2005
|
08/10
|
Muzzafarabad Kashmir-Kohistan,
|
73.58
|
34.53
|
Indo-Pak Border Region. Strongly felt in much of Pakistan, North-India, East-Afghanistan.
Tremors felt as far as Delhi and Punjab in India.
|
7.6
|
80,000
1350 (J&K)
|
70,000
6266 (J&K)
|
Largest instrumented in the area. 4 million homeless. Secondary disasters: landslides, fires. 32, 000 buildings completely or partially damaged, blocked roads. Series of hundreds of aftershocks. [Homeless=150000; Affected=156622 (J&K)]
|
2015
|
26/10
|
Hindukush mountain region of Afghanistan.
|
78.15E
|
37.45
|
Afghanistan, India and Pakistan. Tremors felt in J&K, Delhi, Lucknow and parts of Pakistan, Afghanistan and China.
|
7.5
|
399;
4 (J&K)
|
2536;
20 (J&K)
|
Damage to property. Cracks appeared in most multi-storied buildings. (53 houses damaged in J&K.)
|
Floods
Floods with natural and anthropogenic triggers are among the most common and devastating natural disasters and the leading cause of deaths, responsible for 6.8 million deaths in the 20th Century worldwide, impacting about two-thirds of the total population affected by natural disasters (1991-2000) (UNISDR, 2001, 2015; Doocey, et al., 2013; CRED Report, 2018, 2020). In agreement with the global pattern, the disasters with the largest human impact in Asia were floods during the year 2015 (Guha-Sapir et al., 2015). The occurrences and impacts of flooding are expected to rise due to increase in population, unscientific development and climate change (Tanoue et al., 2016; Bhat et al., 2019). 12% of the total land area of India faces the threat of flooding (MHA Report, 2015).
Kashmir, a highly populated, Himalayan intermontane basin flanked by mountains, drained by major rivers such as Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus, and mainly divided into three physiographic units: floodplains, karewas and mountains, (SDMP, 2017), is prone to floods, widely established through historical records. The structure of the Valley, hydrographic features and drainage characteristics of its river systems viz., bowl shape (elongated trough), variation in altitudes with consequent reduced lag time and sudden peak flows in rivers along low-lying areas during heavy rainfalls make the region specifically prone to floods and congenial for inundation (Bhat et al., 2019). Pertinently, most of the population and socio-economic activity is hosted by the area prone to floods and is one of the major urban centres of the region, Srinagar, where the number of wetlands that act as natural sponges, have come down severely, resulting in frequent flooding (Gupta, 2014; Meraj, 2015; Bhat et al., 2017, 2019). In terms of impact, frequency and economic loss, floods are the largest of all the natural hazards to which the Kashmir Valley is prone (Bhat et al., 2017).
Historical reports reveal that flooding is a recurrent phenomenon and owing to River Jhelum, the valley has witnessed a series of floods, dating back to 635 A.D., many among which were disastrous with widespread socio-economic and environmental impacts (Lawrence, 1895; Uppal, 1956; Bhat et al., 2017). Research indicates two major reasons responsible for the flood vulnerability in the Kashmir valley – inadequate carrying capacity of the River Jhelum from Sangam (Anantnag) to Khandanyar (Baramulla) and naturally flat topography of the Jhelum Basin (Meraj, 2015; Bhat et al., 2017).
Maximum topography of the valley is precipitous, exposing low-lying areas to frequent inundation especially during extended hours of precipitation (seasonally) however, some intensifying factors such as enormous population growth and the resultant expansion of human settlements, ill-planned urban sprawl, modification of floodplain, including, encroachment of waterways, landfilling, and road/railway construction in the floodplain, changes in river morphology and reduced water holding capacity of rivers, erosion and subsequent alluvial deposition in water bodies leading to degradation and extinction of wetlands and waterways have amplified the existing flood risk (Alam et al., 2018; Meraj, 2015). It has also been observed that as a result of climate variability, the frequency of floods in Kashmir Valley is likely to increase in future (Bhat et al., 2019).
Although, most of the flood events in Kashmir have meteorological origin, historical records bear instances where flooding has been associated to a primary disaster event like floods triggered by damming of the Jhelum caused by landslides or earthquake-triggered landslides and dam failures (856 AD and 635 AD) (Kalhana, 1149; Chaudora, 1620; Khanyari, 1857; Khoihami, 1885; Stein, 1891; Bamzai, 1962; Ahmad & Bano, 1984; Bilham and Bali, 2014; Meraj, 2015).
A total of 17 severe flood incidents which show a substantial impact on society were compiled in detail (Table 4). For certain events no figures were available to record impacts but the severity of the situation was described as “the entire valley being completely submerged in water” or “resembling a vast lake” (1903 and 1957) which gives us the idea that major portions of the valley are susceptible to floods and how wide spread can flooding be in Kashmir. Few notable flood events of the recent past recorded in the study were 1903, 1950, 1957, 1959, 1963, 1992, 1994, 1996, 2004, 2006, and 2014 (Raza et al., 1978; Koul, 1993; Meraj et al., 2015; Kumar, 2016; Bhatt et al., 2017; Rather et al., 2017; Alam et al., 2018).
Table 4
Major flood events witnessed by the Kashmir Valley for which damage and loss were reported
Date of occurrence
|
Location/Area affected
|
Cause/ trigger
|
Casualties
|
Magnitude (water levels)
|
Associated impacts
|
Year
|
DD/MM
|
Fatalities
|
Injuries
|
1900
|
-
|
Kashmir Basin
|
Continuous rains caused floods.
|
-
|
-
|
Water level was 9 feet lower at Munshibagh than previous flood (1893- R.L. 5197.0).
|
Breaches in right bank above Sherghari.
Succeeded by cholera killing 4,225 people
|
1903
|
23 July
|
Srinagar City, Kashmir valley
|
5″ of rainfall recorded between 11-17 July and 8″ between 21-23 July.
|
Large number of deaths
|
-
|
River rose to max R.L. 5200.37 on 24 July (three points higher than 1893 flood).
|
Whole valley converted to one great expanse of water. 7,000 dwellings marooned in city.
83 villages affected; 26 villages lost entire kharif harvest. 421 houses completely destroyed.
|
1905
|
-
|
Kashmir Valley
|
-
|
6
|
-
|
-
|
74 villages affected, heavy loss to government records. Extensive loss to crops.
|
1909
|
-
|
Kashmir Valley
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Disastrous for crops. Total estimated loss: Rs. 98,393.
|
1912
|
May
|
Kashmir Valley
|
-
|
21
|
-
|
-
|
Spill channel minimized extent of damage. Many bridges from Baramulla to Chakoti (across LoC) were washed away.
|
1928
|
-
|
Kashmir Valley
|
-
|
76
|
-
|
-
|
Total 1,750 houses partially damaged and 282 houses fully damaged.
Loss of 2,228 domestic animals.
Agricultural sector affected badly.
|
1950
|
01-17 Sep
|
Jhelum Basin, J&K
|
-
|
100
|
-
|
Water of Jhelum was flowing at 10-15 feet over the banks in Srinagar.
|
More than 15,000 houses collapsed or heavily damaged.
River bank breached at multiple places posing threat to civil lines of city. About 70 miles of the area of valley was under water.
|
1957
|
Aug-Sep
|
Kashmir Valley
|
Natural Hydrological Flood
|
92
|
-
|
Highest water level ever recorded (till that time) in state (roughly 90,000 cusecs to 1,20,000 cusecs) at Sangam.
|
Almost submerged entire valley.
Jhelum overflowed right bank in uptown Srinagar, submerging low-lying areas. Colossal damage to crops and property. Led to famine.
600 villages inundated. Estimated damage: 4.2 crores.
|
1959
|
July
|
Kashmir Valley
|
Natural Hydrological Flood.
Four days of incessant rains in valley.
|
104
|
-
|
Flood water level touched 30.25 feet on July 5 in Jhelum.
Jhelum was assumed to be 80,000 to 1,00,000 cusecs.
|
Damage to public utility services: 20 million; damage to crops: 15.6 million.
|
1973
|
6–10 Aug
|
J&K
|
-
|
70
(50 in Jammu and 20 in Kashmir)
|
-
|
-
|
Flooded 40 villages impacting 20% of population. Damages amounted to Rs. 12.18 crore.
|
1992
|
September
|
N-W border districts
Kashmir
|
Recording highest rainfall (of that time)
|
200 (IoK)
2000 (PoK)
|
-
|
-
|
Unprecedented in terms of fury and most devastating in terms of casualties.
Over 60,000 people were affected in several NW border districts.
Parts of POK bore the brunt.
Secondary disaster: landslides
|
1996
|
23, Aug
|
Kashmir Valley
29600 Km2 (Dis. Mag. Value).
|
Natural Hydrological Flood
|
23
|
226
|
-
|
Homeless:70,000; Affected: 70,000.
Water level in Jhelum not as high as earlier floods but water didn’t recede for long period after rains stopped causing heavy damage to houses. In Srinagar city and outskirts, about 10,000 houses were flooded for over a fortnight.
|
2006
|
24 Jul-22 Aug
|
Jhelum-Chenab basins, J&K Provinces
Lat/Long: 34.61-73.20
|
Natural Hydrological Flood; Riverine flood; Monsoonal rains
|
15
|
800
|
-
|
Affected: 800;
|
2006
|
31 Aug-11 Sep
|
J&K Provinces; Jhelum, Sutlej, Lidder, Chenab, Tavi basins
|
Natural Hydrological Flood; Flash Flood; Monsoonal rains;
|
19
|
-
|
-
|
Homeless:15000
Affected:15000
Secondary disasters: Slides (land, mud, snow, rock).
|
2014
|
02 Sep
|
Kashmir region, India-Pakistan
Worst affected districts: Srinagar, Anantnag, Baramulla, Pulwama, Ganderbal, Kulgam, Budgam, Rajouri, Poonch and Reasi.
|
Natural Hydrological Flood; Riverine flood, Monsoonal Rains
Caused by torrential rainfall.
|
557 (277 India, 280 Pakistan)
(190 Jammu, 78 Kashmir)
|
--
|
-
|
Affected:275000; Homeless: 275000;
Damage:16000000.
60 major and minor roads were cut off and 30 bridges washed away, hampering relief and rescue.
80,000 people evacuated. 390 villages in Kashmir completely submerged. 1225 villages affected partially and 1000 villages affected in Jammu.
Secondary Disasters: Slides (land, mud, snow, rock)
|
2015
|
25 July
|
Amarnath, Pahalgam, South Kashmir
|
Flash floods; Cloudburst
|
2
|
9
|
-
|
Yatra suspended, tents washed away. Secondary disaster: land and mud slides
|
2015
|
04 Sep
|
Various parts of the Kashmir Valley
|
-
|
55
|
25
|
-
|
862 cattle killed, and 12565 structures damaged. 211 camps set up to house 2907 evacuated families.
|
2017
|
20-31 March
|
Chadoora village Budgam district;
Jhelum river basin; Lat/Long: 33.1767-76.41;
Disaster magnitude value: 70288 Km2.
|
Natural Hydrological Flood; Flash flood; Heavy rains
|
44
16 in mudslides
|
25
|
-
|
Homeless: 2097;
Affected: 2122;
Damage: 76000
Secondary disasters: Slides (land, mud, snow, rock). Deaths in mudslides and house collapse. Hundreds moved to safety. Flood alert issued. Schools closed. Relief camps set up.
|
Some major flood events have been of regional scale spreading across international borders like flooding in the years 1912, 1992 and 2014. The Kashmir Flood of September, 2014 has been declared the highest magnitude flood recorded instrumentally on Jhelum with a discharge of 72585 cusecs (recorded by the Department of Irrigation and Flood control) and inundated maximum part of the floodplain, resulting in colossal loss of life and property but could still not reach the highest flood levels (HFLs) as documented for events of years 1144, 1360, 1462, 1747, 1903 and 1929 (Alam et al., 2018). However, the event recorded with the maximum number of casualties i.e., 200 deaths in IoK and 2000 deaths in PoK, was the 1992 flood. Floods, as we can make out from the data, have shown some episodes of domino effect by being a cause to secondary disasters, like, epidemics, landslides, famines, etc., (Table 4) viz., 1900 (Cholera epidemic), 1893, 1929,1957 (famines) and 1992, 2006, 2014, 2017 (landslides) (Mehran, 2015).
Consequently, the Valley was affected in a very passive way, exhausting the stores and destroying the assets of the dwelling population (Ahmad et al., 2021) in the past century, through impacts like deaths and injuries (1950, 1957, 1959, 1973, 1992, 2014, 2015), long periods of inundation (1957, 1996, 2014), marooned settlements and entire villages (1973), partial or total damage to infrastructure and washing away of structures (1912, 1928, 1950, 1959, 2014), devastating crops and agricultural sector (1903,1909, 1928, 1959), loss of domestic animals and cattle (1928, 2015), causing health (1900) and food insecurities (1957), and damage and loss of government records (1905).
From the developed catalogue we establish the fact that flooding is a prominent recurring phenomenon of the Kashmir Valley and floods generally occur in the summer months (June to September) when heavy rain is followed by the bright sun, which melts the snow cover and occasionally in springtime (March, April and May).
Landslides
Landslides, more widespread than any other geological event, are localized in nature often with small to medium scale impacts, and can either occur as an individual primary disaster, as a result of a wide array of processes and therefore, be a geological, hydro-meteorological and an anthropogenic hazard, or happen to be an associated secondary disaster to some major disasters like earthquakes, floods, droughts, volcanic eruptions, etc. and thus, worsen their impacts (Chingkhei, et al., 2013; Parkash, 2011). It is apparent from prior research that in recent years the abundance, activity, frequency, socio-economic consequences of, and vulnerability to landslides have increased (Guzzetti, 2000; Gariano & Guzzetti, 2016; Haque et al., 2019) and landslides have been ranked as the 4th deadliest among natural disasters, after floods, storms, and earthquakes (Lacasse et al., 2005).
In India about 12.6% of the total land area is prone to landslides, consisting of the Himalayas and the Western Ghats, in which many slopes also fall in high seismically active zones, including Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and the entire North-East (NIDM, 2011; MHA, 2015). Located in the N-W Himalayas, a major portion of Kashmir is mountainous, the complex, young and continuously changing topography along with the prevalent climate and various anthropogenic drivers interfering in the fragile ecosystem make it vulnerable to landslide hazard (Shah et al., 2018; SDMP, 2017), varying in magnitude from soil creep to landslides and solifluction (mass movement) common in higher snow-covered ranges of the region.
Almost every year the region is affected by one or more major landslide events affecting the society in many ways like loss of life, damage to settlements, roads, means of communication, agricultural land, and floods. Heavy rainfall, cloudburst and consequent flash floods particularly in narrow river gorges are one of the main causes of major landslides in Kashmir (SDMP, 2017). Doda, Udhampur, Kathua, Kishtwar, Gulmarg, Dawar, Gurez, Tangdhar, Rajouri and Kargil are some areas of the erstwhile state highly prone to landslide hazard, also areas along major highways particularly Ramban, Panthal, Banihal, Qazigund (NH 44), and Baltal, Sonmarg, Zogila (NH 1) are vulnerable (Chingkhei et al., 2013).
The rugged topography of the region makes it highly susceptible to major landslides triggered by flash floods along narrow river gorges eventually jeopardizing the whole hill systems. The geologically young, unstable and fragile rocks of the region have witnessed an increase in vulnerability by manifolds in the recent past due to various unscientific developmental activities like deforestation, road cutting, settlement construction and terracing, quarrying practices, indiscriminate encroachment on steep hill slopes, etc., increasing the frequency and intensity of landslides which is also evident from the events recorded from the data (Table 5 and Fig. 3(c)) (SDMP, 2017). The Jammu-Srinagar national highway gets blocked at number of places during the monsoon and winter seasons, due to landslides of which the Ramban-Banihal stretch has become one of the most affected portions (Chingkhei et al., 2013).
Table 5
Major Landslide events witnessed by the Kashmir Valley for which damage and loss were reported.
Date of occurrence
|
Location
Place of occurrence
Long/
Lat
|
Cause/ trigger
|
Casualties
|
Associated impacts
|
Year
|
DD/MM
|
Fatalities
|
Injuries
|
1905
|
04/04
|
J&K and HP
|
Earthquake induced
|
-
|
-
|
Damage to structures and network of hillside aqueducts feeding water to affected areas.
|
1992
|
Sept
|
NW border districts of valley
Kupwara and Baramulla
|
Flood induced
|
-
|
-
|
Huge loss to life and property at the hands of floods and associated landslides
|
2005
|
19/02
|
Waltengu, kund and nar villages Kulgam and Anantnag
|
snow- avalanche induced
|
-
|
-
|
Large scale loss of life and damage to property, loss of connectivity and hindrance in rescue and relief
|
2005
|
08/10
|
Multiple locations of NW districts, J&k
(Tangdhar, Uri)
Kupwara and Baramulla
|
earthquake induced
|
-
|
-
|
Splitting of earth, landslides, rockfalls, complete and partial damage to roads, and hillside structures.
|
2007
|
25/06
|
Ganderbal and Srinagar
|
-
|
3
|
-
|
-
|
2007
|
17/12
|
Srinagar and Ganderbal
|
-
|
2
|
6
|
Temple, bridge and army bunker damaged
|
2008
|
09/01
|
Banihal-Ramban HW 44
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
200 vehicles stranded
|
2008
|
08/02
|
Ramban-Banihal HW 44
|
-
|
3
|
15
|
Vehicles stranded
|
2008
|
18/02
|
Uri Baramulla
|
-
|
1
|
1
|
-
|
2008
|
31/03
|
Qazigund Anantnag
|
-
|
2
|
1
|
-
|
2008
|
26/10
|
Srinagar
|
-
|
2
|
-
|
32 cattle lost
|
2008
|
20/11
|
Gurez Bandipora
|
-
|
6
|
-
|
-
|
2009
|
06/02
|
Srinagar
|
-
|
4
|
4
|
-
|
2009
|
17/06
|
Amarnath Anantnag
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
4000 pilgrims stranded
|
2009
|
29/07
|
Srinagar-Ladakh HW 1 and Baltal road Ganderbal
|
-
|
3-4
|
-
|
Pilgrims buried, tourism
affected
|
2009
|
29/07
|
Kupwara
|
-
|
3 pilgrims
|
-
|
Tourism affected
|
2009
|
02/08
|
Amarnath Anantnag
|
-
|
2
|
-
|
-
|
2009
|
12/12
|
Keran Sector Kupwara
|
-
|
1 BRO porter
|
-
|
-
|
2009
|
17/06
|
Gurez, Bandipora
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
-
|
2009
|
17/06
|
Railpathri, Baltal base camp Ganderbal
|
-
|
1 porter
|
1
|
-
|
2010
|
09/01
|
Kupwara District
|
-
|
4
|
-
|
-
|
2010
|
08/02
|
Uri, near LoC Baramulla
|
-
|
1
|
7
|
5 Houses collapsed, cattle affected (7 cows, 30 goats killed)
|
2010
|
08/02
|
Uri, Gharkote Baramulla
|
-
|
-
|
1 army man
|
Shooting stones
|
2010
|
10/02
|
Gulmarg Baramulla
|
-
|
3
|
-
|
-
|
2010
|
22/02
|
Chairvani village, Ganderbal, Srinagar
|
-
|
6
|
6
|
-
|
2010
|
22/02
|
Uri Baramulla
|
-
|
1
|
6
|
-
|
2010
|
20/04
|
Zojila HW 1
|
Heavy rains
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2010
|
28/04
|
Ganderbal, Srinagar
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
Srinagar-Leh highway closed
|
2010
|
28/04
|
Srg-Leh HW 1
|
-
|
1 BRO laborer
|
-
|
Highway closed
|
2010
|
20/05
|
Srinagar
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
-
|
2010
|
04/06
|
Baramulla
|
-
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
2010
|
06/06
|
Uri Baramulla
|
-
|
6
|
-
|
Traffic disrupted for several days
|
2010
|
10/10
|
Uri Baramulla
|
-
|
1
|
7
|
-
|
2010
|
23/10
|
Uri Baramulla
|
-
|
3 (Army men)
|
-
|
Hampered traffic movement
|
2011
|
04/03
|
Uri Baramulla
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
4 houses damaged
|
2011
|
18/04
|
Phimram, Shangus Anantnag
|
-
|
5 family members
|
1
|
-
|
2011
|
09/12
|
Gurez Bandipora
|
-
|
3
|
-
|
8 shops and 10 kiosks destroyed, dozen vehicles damaged
|
2014
|
02/09
|
Multiple sites in J&K
|
Flood induced
|
-
|
-
|
Colossal damage to life and property. Blocked river channels and caused flash floods, aggravated flood situation.
|
2014
|
12/03
|
Kulgam district
|
Avalanche induced
|
13
|
-
|
houses collapsed
|
2014
|
12/03
|
Balsaran Danaukandimarg village, Kulgam district
|
-
|
4
|
-
|
-
|
2014
|
12/03
|
Qazigund (Anantnag), Kulgam
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
House collapsed
|
2014
|
12/03
|
Shopian district
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
House collapsed
|
2015
|
06/03
|
Sunergund, Awantipora, Pulwama, Anantnag
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
-
|
2017
|
20/03
|
Chadoora, Budgam
|
flood induced and heavy rains
|
16
|
-
|
mudslides and house collapse
|
2018
|
05/01
|
Sadna pass, Kupwara
|
-
|
10
|
-
|
Avalanche and landslides hit camp
|
2018
|
18/01
|
Happat Koal, Happat nar Anantnag
|
-
|
1 Swedish skier
|
-
|
-
|
2018
|
31/03
|
Ladden Chadoora Budgam
|
-
|
16
|
-
|
Traffic disrupted for more than 10 days
|
2018
|
04/07
|
Railpathri and Brarimarg Ganderbal
|
-
|
10 (4 pilgrims)
|
-
|
Amarnath yatra was suspended
|
2020
|
11/06
|
Salar Pahalgham, Anantnag District
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
-
|
Table 6 Major Snow avalanches witnessed by the Kashmir Valley for which damage and loss were reported.
Date of occurrence
|
Location
|
Casualties
|
Associated impacts
|
Year
|
DD/MM
|
Place of occurrence
|
Fatalities
|
Injuries/ missing/rescued
|
1986
|
January
|
Zojila, Srg-Leh National HW
|
60
|
-
|
-
|
1994
|
February
|
Jawahar tunnel, Banihal HW
|
98
|
-
|
Passengers trapped and perished on both sides of the tunnel
|
1997
|
28/03
|
Monang Post, Uri Baramulla
|
4 soldiers
|
-
|
A patrol party of 4 was swept and later bodies recovered
|
1998
|
25/02
|
Mou Mangat, Banihal HW
|
11 civilians
|
-
|
House buried located far from the main village
|
2005
|
10/02
|
Kund and Waltengu Nar villages, Qazigund Anantnag Kulgam
|
175
|
60 civilians rescued
|
Hundreds trapped
|
2008
|
10/01
|
Uri Baramulla
|
15
|
-
|
-
|
2008
|
08/02
|
Qazigund Anantnag
|
3
|
15 injured
|
500 trucks stranded
|
2008
|
08/02
|
Jammu -Srinagar HW
|
25
|
-
|
-
|
2008
|
08/02
|
Ramban-Banihal, HW
|
3
|
-
|
400-500 trucks stranded
|
2008
|
18/02
|
Uri Baramulla
|
1
|
-
|
-
|
2009
|
13/01
|
Kashmir valley
|
2
|
-
|
-
|
2009
|
06/02
|
Kupwara
|
4
|
-
|
-
|
2009
|
06/02
|
Srinagar
|
4
|
-
|
-
|
2009
|
14/04
|
Kupwara
|
7
|
-
|
-
|
2010
|
09/01
|
Kupwara
|
4
|
-
|
-
|
2010
|
08/02
|
Gulmarg Baramulla
|
17 Soldiers
|
17 soldiers injured
|
-
|
2010
|
09/02
|
Kupwara
|
2
|
-
|
-
|
2010
|
10/02
|
Gulmarg Baramulla
|
3
|
-
|
-
|
2011
|
12/02
|
Phiram Shangus, Anantnag
|
2
|
1 injured
|
-
|
2012
|
24/01
|
Kupwara
|
7 (army and BSF)
|
-
|
Associated slides
|
2012
|
23/02
|
Ganderbal & Bandipora
|
16 Army personnel
|
Many injured
|
-
|
2012
|
24/02
|
Gurez Bandipora
|
13 army personnel
|
-
|
-
|
2012
|
21/03
|
Gurez Bandipora
|
2
|
3 people rescued.
1 person missing.
|
Civilian vehicle caught in the avalanche.
|
2013
|
23/12
|
Gurez Bandipora
|
2
|
-
|
-
|
2014
|
13/03
|
Batalik
|
3 soldiers
|
2 rescued
|
-
|
2016
|
14/03
|
Kupwara
|
10
|
73 civilians rescued.
|
People stranded in vehicles.
|
2017
|
25/01
|
Gurez Bandipora
|
24 (4 civilians; 20 soldiers)
|
-
|
Series of 3 avalanches.
Army camp and patrol party was hit.
|
2017
|
25/01
|
Sonmarg
Ganderbal
|
4 civilians
|
-
|
-
|
2017
|
26/01
|
Gurez
Bandipora
|
10 soldiers
|
-
|
-
|
2017
|
26/01
|
Sonmarg Ganderbal
|
|
4 soldiers injured
|
-
|
2017
|
28/01
|
Machil, Kupwara
|
|
5 soldiers rescued
|
-
|
2017
|
06/04
|
J&k, higher reaches of Kashmir and Ladakh.
Batalik, Kargil, Kupwara, Kokernag, (Anantnag) Rajori, etc.
|
9 (6 civilians, 3 army men)
|
-
|
Avalanches, minor flooding, landslides, rise in water levels in Jhelum and tributaries.
|
2017
|
13/12
|
Gurez (Bandipora) & Naugam, (Kupwara)
|
5 soldiers
|
-
|
Trapped after snow track caved in.
|
2018
|
06/01
|
Sadhna top, Tangdhar Sector (C-T), karnah, Kupwara (khooni nallah)
|
11 (civilians)
|
-
|
2 avalanches. Vehicle hit by avalanche.
|
2018
|
25/01
|
Sonmarg (Ganderbal), Gurez (Bandipora) & Kupwara
|
6 (5 civilians, 1 army major)
|
4 soldiers missing, 6 soldiers rescued alive
|
Camp hit, House collapsed, family of four died.
|
2018
|
26/01
|
Bandipora
|
11 (7 soldiers, 4 civilians)
|
Several missing
|
A camp and patrol party got hit.
|
2018
|
02/02
|
Kupwara
|
2 soldiers
|
1 injured
|
Avalanche struck army post
|
2018
|
16/02
|
Gulmarg
Baramulla
|
5(tourists- 1 international, 4 national)
|
-
|
-
|
2018
|
24/02
|
Guchibal Behak, Kupwara
|
3 civilians
|
2 missing
|
-
|
2018
|
01/03
|
Tulail Bandipora
|
|
1 injured
|
-
|
2018
|
09/09
|
Kolahoi
|
2 local trekkers
|
-
|
-
|
2019
|
04/12
|
Tangdhar Kupwara
|
3 soldiers
|
-
|
Army post hit
|
2019
|
04/12
|
Dawar, Gurez, Bandipora
|
1
|
1 injured
|
Foot patrol of army was hit
|
2020
|
14/01
|
Kulan, Sonmarg
Ganderbal
|
5
|
-
|
Several houses damaged when village was hit by avalanche
|
2020
|
14/01
|
Machil sector, Kupwara
|
4 soldiers
|
5 trapped
|
Army post hit
|
2020
|
14/01
|
Naugam sector, along LoC Kupwara
|
1 soldier
|
6 rescued alive
|
-
|
2020
|
18/11
|
Roshan post, Tangdhar Kupwara
|
1
|
2 injured
|
-
|
For landslide hazard out of the total 65 events collected, 49 events with substantial damage and loss were discussed in detail (Table 5). The events with highest number of deaths in the databset are the landslide event of 20th March, 2007 Chdoora budgam and 31st March, 2018 Ladden, Chadoora, Budgam with a death toll of 16 persons each. Land sliding can have varied triggers, heavy rains appear to be the most frequent cause of landslides and therefore, many a times landslides coincide with floods and flash floods (1992, 20th April, 20th March, 2007 and 2010, 2nd September, 2014), earthquakes (4th April, 1905, 8th October, 2005) and snow avalanches (19th February, 2005 and 12th March, 2014) are also a common cause for land sliding. Landslides frequently lead to road blockade, disrupted traffic movement (of people and goods) as can be seen from the data, along with other impacts like deaths and injuries, loss of cattle, damage to hillside settlements, infrastructures, roads and bridges causing loss of connectivity, hamper pilgrimage activities, accidents and damage to vehicles, affect tourism, and daming of rivers causing flash floods. National hihgway is the main link of the valley to the rest of the country which gets blocked ever so frequently during rainy and winter seasons leaving the valley without accessibility for days at a strech having impacts like shortage in supplies, availability of goods, inflation, hampered movement of people, etc (Prakash, 2011). From the data we can establish a pattern in the seasonal variability of landslide occurrences, with maximum number of events (9 each) in the months of February and March, which account for 34.04% of the total occurrences, and minimum (1 each) in May and November, rest occassional slides occur throughout the year. 53.19% of the total land sliding activity occures in the months of January, February, March and April, but a substantial number of occurrences have also been recorded for the month of June, which accounts for 14.89% of the total incidents recorded.
Snow Avalanches
An endemic feature of snow-covered mountain ranges (Spencer, 2011; Bruno, 2013), avalanches are both widespread and one among the most destructive natural hazards (Keylock, 1997), causing fewer casualties globally, on an average several hundred people per year (Birkeland, 2021), than many other natural hazards, but overall fatalities have been on the rise over the past several decades (Bruno, 2013). The overwhelming expansion of tourism and increasing popularity of winter sports and climate warming has escalated the number of people exposed to avalanches by influencing the behaviour, uncertainty and increasing frequency of snow avalanches (Martin et al., 2001; Bruno, 2013; Castebrunet et al., 2014).
The Himalayas (Indian Himalayas) are highly vulnerable to snow avalanches (Sethi, 2000; Ganju, 2002; Mc Clung, 2016) and with increased communication to isolated mountain villages, the number of incidents and casualties recorded has enhanced substantially in the last few decades (Sethi, 2000). Snow-covered regions of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal and Western Uttar Pradesh are significantly susceptible (Sethi, 2000; Ganju, 2002) while eastern states witness occasional incidents. In erstwhile, Jammu and Kashmir higher reaches of Kashmir division (Kashmir valley, Gurez valleys, Kargil and Ladakh), areas of Jammu region (Doda, Ramban, Udhampur, Reasi, Kishtwar, Banihal), some of the major roads (long stretches of national highway connecting J&K to the rest of the country, from Ladakh through Srinagar to Jammu, Mughal Road, etc.) (Kelman, 2018; RMSI Report, 2018) and famous pilgrim centres (Amarnath, Phalgham and Baltal, and Vaishnu Devi, Katra) (Sethi, 2000) are highly vulnerable to snow avalanches (SDMP, 2017).
J&K, as compared to the other vulnerable regions of the country has taken the major brunt of avalanche accidents in the past (Ganju, 2002) with both civilians and the army being severely impacted as can be established from the recorded events (Gusain et al., 2018). Table 6 discusses 47 incidents in detail most of which have been recorded for the period 2000-2020. An evident increase in the number of avalanche occurrences and subsequent casualties can be seen in the past three decades which can be primarily attributed to insufficient knowledge about the terrain, lack of forecasting mechanism, and ill-equipped adventures taken-up by army as well civilians like construction of roads, enhancement in tourism and increased patrolling activity in the region post 1990’s (Ganju, 2002). Snow avalanches have substantial adverse impact on human activity (Keylock, 1997) threatening human life directly by causing death or injury, or by detaining them and indirectly by obstructing the overall development, disrupting ecosystems, damaging built structures and landscapes in mountainous regions (Ganju, 2002; Choubin, 2019).
A considerable portion of the total fatalities seem to occur when people are in movement, as opposed to when they are static (like in their houses, barns etc.,), and majority of the accidents take place during snowfall or immediately after cessation of snow storm, as can also be confirmed from the reported events in this study (Table 6) (Sethi, 2000; Ganju et al., 2002). The incident showing highest number of casualties is the avalanche of 10th February, 2005 in Kund and Waltengu Nar Villages killing a total of 175 people while 60 were rescued alive. The record shows a few more severe incidents with large number of casualties like 1986 Zojila (60 deaths), 1994 Jawahar Tunnel (98 deaths), 8th February, 2008 Jammu-Srinagar National HW (25 deaths), 8th February, 2010 Gulmarg (17 deaths and 17 injuries), and 25th January, 2017 Gurez (24 deaths). Recorded casualties show a greater number of army personnel than civilians which is due to the proximity of the region to the international border that mostly stretches across avalanche-prone snow-covered slopes, therefore, the presence of army posts along the LoC makes them highly susceptible to snow avalanches (Gusain et al., 2018). The data reveals that areas like Tangdhar, Drass, Gurez, Keran, Machhal, Gulmarg, Naugam and Banihal are highly avalanche prone sites in the valley (Table 6) (Kelman, 2018; Gusain et al., 2018).
The major roads of the region, winding up on some of the prominent passes on the Pir Panjal and the Greater Himalayan Range, are often closed due to landslides and avalanches during the winter and early spring seasons, with a number of casualties every year, frequent suspension of vehicular movement and confinement of pedestrian movement to only village level for long periods creating various socio-economic problems, but with no systematic compilation of incidents or casualties (Kelman, 2018). The important road axes susceptible to avalanche activity include: Jammu-Srinagar, Naugam-Kaiyan, Chowkibal-Tangdhar, Srinagar-Leh and Bandipora-Gurez. Tangdhar is one of the regions studied well for avalanches and many researchers have reported various prediction techniques for this road axis in the past (Gusain et al., 2018).
The avalanche activity for major portions of mountain areas of Kashmir is most pronounced in the months of January to March, but may stretch over the months of November to April (Sethi, 2000), while in the high alpine areas the avalanche season continues all year-round (9th September, Kolahoi) (Ganju, 2002). In Kashmir 72.34% of the total avalanches occur in January and February followed by the months of March and April accounting for about 17.02% of the total.