Overall technology (installed capacity) mix
Overall, to fully electrify Sub-Saharan Africa and meet the future energy needs of the continent, the total installed capacity in the continent needs to increase from 178GW in 2015 to 389GW (NPLs), 473GW (NPHs), 403GW (RDLs) and 492GW (RDHs) in 2030 depending on the scenario. This capacity growth is primarily due to changes in electricity demand levels and renewable technology costs. Specifically, the capacity of fossil fuel technologies increased from 143GW in 2015 to 195GW (50%) in NPLs, 212GW (45%) in NPHs, 198GW (49%) in RDLs and 214GW (43%) in RDHs, in 2030. Natural gas constitutes most of the fossil-fuel installed capacity. In the opposite case, most of the renewable capacity in the continent is based on hydropower, although the capacity of solar technologies grows very fast. As the costs of renewables decrease further by 2040, the share of fossil fuels in the power system of Africa decreases even more in the Renewable Development scenarios than in the New Policies ones. Also, as the electricity demand increases between the scenarios (Low to High), higher investments in fossil fuel technologies are required to satisfy the final electricity demand levels since renewables are not always available to generate electricity.
Solar off-grid and solar hybrid mini-grid technologies are expected to gradually penetrate the power system in Sub-Saharan Africa and play an essential role in its future energy transition. The current un-electrified settlements will start getting electricity in 2020. This growth in electricity levels results in 2030 in an increase of the installed capacity of primarily solar off-grid technologies of 56GW (14%) in NPLs, 78GW (16%) in NPHs, 72GW (18%) in RDLs and 101GW (21%) in RDHs and solar hybrid mini-grid technologies of 12GW (3%) in NPLs, 40GW (8%) in NPHs, 15GW (4%) in RDLs and 44GW (9%) in RDHs.
Most of the total installed capacity in the continent was located in SAPP of 61GW (34%) in 2015. Nevertheless, to achieve SDG7 in Africa by 2030, the EAPP is estimated to represent most of the continent´s installed capacity, around 37% in all scenarios due to currently low electricity access levels and high population increase. This energy transformation in EAPP is led by hydropower investments in Ethiopia, Sudan, Tanzania, and Egypt's fossil fuel and solar technologies growth. Also, CAPP is expected to have the higher share of renewables in the continent, mainly due to hydropower and solar potential. The overall technology mix in Africa among the scenarios from 2015 to 2030 is presented in Figure 3 and for each power pool in Supplementary Material B.
Energy supply mix – Electrification mix
To fully electrify Africa and cover the continent's future energy needs, the total primary energy supply in the continent from 674 Mtoe in 2015 increased to a range of 1,312Mtoe (RDLs) to 1,374Mtoe (NPHs) in 2030, depending on the scenario (Figure 4). In the Renewable Development scenarios, less supply of fossil fuels is needed as in the New Policies scenarios (Supplementary Material B). Although by 2030, the penetration of renewables in the electricity mix of the continent does not significantly change, as their cost decreases in the Renewable Development scenarios than the New Policies scenarios by 2040, this transition is more evident.
The total electricity generation in Africa increased from 2,704PJ in 2015 to 6,221PJ (NPLs), 7,527PJ (NPHs), 6,188PJ (RDLs) and 7,487PJ (RDHs) in 2030, depending on the scenario. Out of the total electricity generation, the fossil fuels share constituted 81% in 2015, decreases to 63% (NPLs), 60% (NPHs), 63% (RDLs) and 60% (RDHs) in 2030. Natural gas is estimated to be the primary fossil fuel in the continent in the next decade. In the opposite case, hydropower was the dominant renewable power source in 2015. It remains by 2030 in the low demand scenarios (NPLs, RDLs), while in the high demand scenarios (NPHs, RDHs), solar power is the dominant power source. Specifically, solar off-grid and solar hybrid mini-grid are expected to play an essential role in the electrification of the current un-electrified settlements in residential areas. Depending on the scenario, grid-connected technologies are estimated to supply approximately 85%-90% of the total electricity generated in Africa in 2030, mini-grid technologies approximately 1%-6%, and stand-alone technologies 8%-11%. As the costs of renewables decrease in the Renewable Development scenarios, higher penetration of stand-alone solar technologies is expected by 2030 (Supplementary Material B).
Specifically, on a power pool level, NAPP is expected to increase its electricity generation from almost 590PJ in 2015 to 1,282PJ (NPLs), 1,301PJ (NPHs), 1,283PJ (RDLs) and 1,292PJ (RDHs) in 2030. The fossil fuel share is expected to decrease from almost 94% in 2015 to approximately 66% in all scenarios by 2030. The nations will continue to base their power generation in gas power plants in the next decade while solar gradually penetrates the power mix in Algeria, Morocco and Libya. In most scenarios (NPLs, RDLs, RDHs), stand-alone solar technologies will represent 13% of the electricity mix while in NPHs 17% in 2030.
In SAPP, the electricity generation increases from 989PJ in 2015 to 1,642PJ (NPLs), 1,939PJ (NPHs), 1,637 (RDLs), 1,930 (RDHs) in 2030. The fossil fuel share decreased from approximately 81% in 2015 to 74% in NPLs, 75% in NPHs scenarios and 73% in RDLs, RDHs scenarios in 2030. Most electricity generation is based on coal power plants, while hydro and solar gradually increase their share in the electricity mix. Solar stand-alone technologies are estimated to supply the electricity in the power pool of 74PJ (in NPLs), 102PJ (in NPHs), and 116PJ (in RDLs), 156PJ (in RDHs) in 2030.
In CAPP, the electricity generation increases from 91PJ in 2015 to 209PJ (NPLs), 388PJ (NPHs), 201 (RDLs) and 380PJ (RDHs) in 2030. Most of the electricity supplied in the power pool was based on hydropower, almost 62% in 2015. Nevertheless, achieving universal access in the power pool increases fossil fuel share from 38% in 2015 to 45% (NPLs), 34% (NPHs), 45% (RDLs) and 41% (RDHs) in 2030. High electricity consumption levels (NPHs, RDHs) lead solar power to generate most of the electricity instead of hydro. The current low electricity access levels and the high population in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon and Chad have collective implications. In all scenarios, oil-based generation declines in the power pool throughout the years. However, it is replaced by coal which starts supplying electricity from 2023 onwards primarily due to investments in the Democratic Republic of Congo and gas-based generation in Cameroon. In this power pool, the role of electricity interconnectors is highlighted to achieve universal access. Specifically, the gas-based generation is higher in the Renewable Development scenarios than in the New Policies ones, under respective electricity demand levels . This energy transition is due to the increase in the electricity supplied by gas power plants in Cameroon to satisfy part of its domestic consumption while its electricity imports from Chad decline by a significant margin. As electricity demand levels increase between the scenarios, DRC, except for covering part of its domestic electricity consumption from coal-based power plants and solar hybrid mini-grid systems, imports more electricity from Angola, Congo, Rwanda, and Zambia to also maintain its electricity exports at similar levels(cumulatively around 108PJ).
In EAPP, the electricity generation increases from 786PJ in 2015 to 2,241PJ (NPLs), 2,640PJ (NPHs), 2,224PJ (RDLs) and 2,633PJ (RDHs) in 2030. The fossil fuel share decreases from 79% in 2015 to 58% (NPLs), 52% (NPHs), 58% (RDLs) and 53% (RDHS) in each of the scenarios in 2030. Gas is expected to be the dominant fuel in the region in the next decade as in 2015, mostly of the gas-based electricity generation in Egypt, while coal from 2023 onwards increases its share in the electricity mix by a big margin due to coal investments in Egypt. Egypt needs to import coal in the future to generate electricity due to its limited availability of identified domestic coal reserves, affecting its import dependency. However, the government could use its natural gas reserves instead to strengthen the reliability of the power system and not be affected by the fluctuation of fossil fuel prices. Except for fossil fuel investments in Egypt, the RET-based generation in the country is expected to increase by almost seven times. As electricity demand increases, Egypt decreases its imports cumulatively from 2015-2030 while it increases its natural-gas-based electricity generation. In Ethiopia, although the RET share increases significantly, specifically hydropower, solar and geothermal, among the scenarios relatively as electricity demand increases, in the NPHs and RDHs scenarios, the country also starts producing electricity from natural gas power plants from 2028 onwards. To cover the increased fuel needs in the future (NPHs, RDHs), the country also reduces its electricity net exports to neighboring countries to even higher levels than the current onesin the NPLs, RDLs. The country also assists Kenya in achieving universal access. Hydropower and solar are the dominant fuels in Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda by 2030. , Tanzania is another country where as electricity demand increases (NPHs, RDHs) the country further exploits its domestic coal reserves to increase its coal-based electricity generation from 2022 onwards and decrease its net imports cumulatively almost by 30% (2015-2030). In the opposite case, under higher electricity demand levels (NPHs, RDHs), Rwanda increased their electricity generation by increasing their gas-based electrity generation from 2021 to increase its electricity exports primarily to Tanzania and Uganda. . However, this energy transition comes at the cost of increasing its carbon dioxide emissions.
WAPP presents the highest increase in its electricity generation between 2015 and 2030 in Africa. The electricity generation increases from 247PJ in 2015 to 847PJ (NPLs), 1262PJ (NPHs), 842PJ (RDLs), 1253PJ ( RDHs) in 2030. The fossil fuels share decreased from 72% in 2015 to 56% in NPLs, NPHs and 58% in RDLs and 56% in RDHs in 2030. Gas is the dominant fuel in the region primarily due to investments in Cote D Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria and Ghana by 2030 with an increased share of hydropower in Nigeria, Cote D Ivoire and Guinea, and solar off-grid and mini-grid technologies. As electricity demand rises among the scenarios, Nigeria is estimated to increase its coal-based power generation in 2022. However, the country decreases its net exports between 2015-2030 to satisfy the high increase in its domestic electricity consumption leading the electricity importers Benin and Niger to increase their gas-based and hydropower generation in the future.
The energy balances on a continental level for the different scenarios the period 2015-2030 are presented in Supplementary Material B.
Investment needs for achieving universal access in Africa
The total system costs of an energy system consist of the capital investments, operating and maintance and operating fuel costs for all grid-connected, mini-grid and off-grid technologies and the transmission and distribution (T&D) infrastructure. Thus, the minimum total system costs required to fully electrify Africa and cover the future electricity needs in the continent in the period 2020-2030 amount to 2,973 billion USD at the Renewable Development Low scenario (lowest electrification level). In the opposite case, the maximum total system costs correspond to 3,489 billion USD at the Renewable Development High scenario at the same period. At the New Policies Low and High scenarios, the total system costs are 3,002 billion USD and 3,447 billion USD accordingly the period 2020-2030. Most of the overall system costs are constituted by the operating fuel ranging from 58%-66% depending on the scenario, as the share of fossil fuels decreases between the Renewable Development and the New Policies scenarios. The operation and maintance costs account for approximately 5% of the total system costs, while the capital costs for transmission and distribution on an average of 9% the period 2020-2030. The higher penetration of off-grid technologies in the Renewable Development scenarios leads to lower investments in the T&D network than in the New Policies scenarios. Higher electricity demand levels and lower renewable technology costs lead to higher capital investments in off-grid technologies during 2020-2030. However, higher capital investments on grid-connected technologies are needed in the Renewable Development High scenario. On average, roughly 61,696 (RDLs)179 – 82,338 (NPHs) billion USD annually are needed on capital investments in the power sector (technologies, T&D) during 2020-2030. The relatively high costs of the gradual penetration of off-grid systems in the power system of Africa in the Renewable Development scenarios are offset by the lower operating fuel costs and the lower T&D costs (lead by high losses in the T&D network). The economic dimension of the evolution of the power system in Africa across the scenarios during 2020-2030 is presented in Figure 5.
The average cost of generating electricity per kWh each year in each African country's scenarios is presented in Table 4, over the periods 2015 - 2020, 2020 - 2030. The costs in each country may vary among the scenarios since there are cases (as presented in Section 3.2) a nation to increase its generation costs in assisting another country in satisfying its future electricity needs. The total system costs in this study are minimized on a continental scale and not on a country level. The average cost of generating electricity is the yearly ratio between the expenses incurred during that period (investment, operation, carbon tax) and the electricity generated. Higher average costs of generating electricity are primarily in the New Policies scenarios than the Renewable Development scenarios primarily due to higher penetration of fossil fuel technologies resulting in higher fuel operating costs. On the other hand, higher upfront capital investments are required for renewable technologies in the Renewable Development scenarios.
Table 4. The average cost of generating electricity per kWh over the periods (2015-2030,) (cent USD/kWh). The costs are discounted assuming an average discount rate of 8%; they include the power supply grid-connected technologies.
Country/scenario
|
2015-2020
|
2020-2030
|
USD/kWh
|
NPLs
|
NPHs
|
RDLs
|
RDHs
|
NPLs
|
NPHs
|
RDLs
|
RDHs
|
Algeria
|
6.9
|
6.9
|
7.0
|
7.0
|
7.3
|
7.2
|
7.4
|
7.4
|
Angola
|
8.3
|
8.2
|
8.3
|
8.2
|
7.1
|
7.3
|
7.1
|
7.2
|
Benin
|
9.7
|
9.5
|
9.7
|
9.5
|
11.6
|
8.9
|
17.7
|
10.4
|
Botswana
|
5.4
|
5.4
|
5.4
|
5.4
|
5.8
|
5.7
|
5.0
|
4.8
|
Burkina Faso
|
15.4
|
15.4
|
16.1
|
16.1
|
16.2
|
15.7
|
17.3
|
17.3
|
Burundi
|
6.0
|
6.0
|
6.0
|
6.0
|
6.7
|
6.0
|
6.6
|
10.3
|
Cameroon
|
5.2
|
5.2
|
5.2
|
5.2
|
5.1
|
5.4
|
5.3
|
5.5
|
Central African Rep.
|
8.2
|
8.2
|
8.2
|
8.2
|
7.2
|
7.3
|
7.1
|
7.2
|
Chad
|
11.5
|
11.0
|
11.0
|
11.2
|
23.0
|
22.4
|
8.7
|
13.2
|
Republic of Congo
|
5.3
|
5.3
|
5.2
|
5.3
|
5.6
|
5.9
|
5.6
|
5.9
|
Democratic Republic of Congo
|
1.9
|
1.9
|
1.9
|
1.9
|
2.7
|
3.3
|
2.6
|
3.3
|
Cote d Ivoire
|
5.9
|
5.9
|
5.8
|
5.8
|
7.0
|
7.5
|
6.5
|
7.6
|
Djibouti
|
11.3
|
11.3
|
11.3
|
11.3
|
8.0
|
8.1
|
8.0
|
8.1
|
Egypt
|
6.2
|
6.2
|
6.2
|
6.2
|
7.2
|
7.2
|
7.1
|
7.2
|
Equatorial Guinea
|
5.6
|
5.5
|
5.7
|
5.7
|
4.9
|
4.8
|
5.5
|
5.5
|
Eritrea
|
9.7
|
9.7
|
9.8
|
9.7
|
8.2
|
7.2
|
8.3
|
7.2
|
Ethiopia
|
6.3
|
6.1
|
6.3
|
6.1
|
10.4
|
7.8
|
10.4
|
7.8
|
Gabon
|
5.4
|
5.4
|
5.4
|
5.4
|
5.3
|
5.4
|
5.3
|
5.4
|
Gambia
|
7.7
|
7.5
|
7.5
|
7.6
|
8.1
|
8.0
|
8.1
|
8.0
|
Ghana
|
6.2
|
6.2
|
6.2
|
6.2
|
6.6
|
6.6
|
6.5
|
6.6
|
Guinea
|
9.5
|
9.4
|
9.5
|
9.1
|
13.9
|
12.1
|
14.0
|
11.7
|
Guinea Bissau
|
12.4
|
12.5
|
12.5
|
12.5
|
11.8
|
10.5
|
11.6
|
10.6
|
Kenya
|
6.4
|
6.4
|
6.5
|
6.5
|
9.4
|
8.2
|
9.6
|
8.4
|
Lesotho
|
1.3
|
1.3
|
1.3
|
1.3
|
2.5
|
3.5
|
1.9
|
3.1
|
Liberia
|
8.8
|
8.4
|
10.4
|
8.6
|
9.1
|
8.9
|
7.6
|
8.9
|
Libya
|
8.1
|
8.1
|
8.1
|
8.1
|
7.5
|
7.5
|
7.6
|
7.6
|
Malawi
|
3.7
|
3.7
|
3.7
|
3.7
|
6.1
|
6.4
|
6.1
|
6.2
|
Mali
|
10.7
|
10.7
|
10.7
|
10.7
|
7.0
|
7.0
|
7.0
|
7.0
|
Mauritania
|
8.7
|
8.6
|
8.8
|
8.8
|
9.9
|
9.6
|
9.9
|
9.7
|
Morocco
|
7.2
|
7.3
|
7.1
|
7.3
|
9.8
|
9.0
|
9.9
|
9.9
|
Mozambique
|
2.1
|
2.1
|
2.1
|
2.1
|
4.6
|
5.4
|
4.0
|
5.2
|
Namibia
|
2.5
|
2.5
|
2.6
|
2.6
|
4.5
|
4.7
|
4.3
|
4.6
|
Niger
|
9.2
|
9.1
|
9.2
|
9.2
|
26.7
|
8.0
|
9.3
|
9.1
|
Nigeria
|
5.9
|
5.9
|
5.9
|
5.9
|
6.2
|
6.4
|
6.2
|
6.4
|
Rwanda
|
5.1
|
5.1
|
5.2
|
5.2
|
8.9
|
10.2
|
8.3
|
10.6
|
Senegal
|
7.5
|
7.5
|
7.5
|
7.5
|
7.7
|
7.6
|
7.7
|
7.6
|
Sierra Leone
|
8.6
|
8.6
|
8.6
|
8.6
|
6.3
|
6.4
|
6.2
|
6.4
|
Somalia
|
10.1
|
10.1
|
10.1
|
10.1
|
6.6
|
6.6
|
6.6
|
6.6
|
South Africa
|
5.1
|
5.1
|
5.2
|
5.2
|
4.7
|
4.8
|
4.7
|
4.8
|
Sudan
|
4.9
|
4.9
|
4.9
|
4.9
|
7.4
|
7.5
|
8.0
|
7.9
|
South Sudan
|
9.9
|
9.9
|
9.9
|
9.9
|
6.4
|
6.4
|
6.4
|
6.4
|
Swaziland
|
1.9
|
1.9
|
1.9
|
1.9
|
3.9
|
4.4
|
3.9
|
4.3
|
Tanzania
|
5.4
|
5.4
|
5.4
|
5.4
|
6.0
|
6.0
|
6.1
|
6.0
|
Togo
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
5.9
|
6.7
|
5.8
|
6.6
|
Tunisia
|
6.7
|
6.7
|
6.8
|
6.7
|
6.9
|
6.8
|
7.0
|
7.0
|
Uganda
|
4.9
|
4.7
|
4.9
|
4.7
|
5.4
|
5.7
|
5.2
|
5.8
|
Zambia
|
2.8
|
2.7
|
2.8
|
2.7
|
3.9
|
3.9
|
3.8
|
3.9
|
Zimbabwe
|
5.0
|
5.1
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
8.6
|
8.5
|
8.1
|
7.7
|
Sustainability insights for achieving SDG7 in each African nation
Achieving SDG7 in each African nation by 2030 will have different implications for the targets and sub-targets associated with SDG7 and each nation´s energy transition. The modelling results below can assist each country in understanding the conflicting objectives among the evolution of the power system with the energy indicators mentioned above. Specifically, although Benin, Cote D Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea and Ghana will increase their renewable energy targets by 2030, this energy transition consumes most of their respective fossil fuel reserves to cover their future energy needs, negatively affecting their net import dependency in the future. As a result of this analysis, the evolution of some indicators: the share of renewables, CO2 emissions, energy intensity (energy production/GDP), the lifetime of fossil fuel resources and import dependency calculated for each African country is presented in Table 5.
Table 5. Tracking SDG7 targets, sub-targets and indicators for each African country among the scenarios in 2030.
Country/
Scenario
|
Renewables electricity share out of final electricity generated (%)1
|
CO2 emissions (Mt)
|
Energy Intensity (Energy production/GDP) (MJ/2010 USD) 2
|
Consumption of fossil fuel reserves (%)3
|
Net import dependency of the energy system (%)2
|
|
NPLs
|
NPHs
|
RDLs
|
RDHs
|
NPLs
|
NPHs
|
RDLs
|
RDHs
|
NPLs
|
NPHs
|
RDLs
|
RDHs
|
NPLs
|
NPHs
|
RDLs
|
RDHs
|
NPLs
|
NPHs
|
RDLs
|
RDHs
|
Angola
|
66%
|
57%
|
72%
|
64%
|
37
|
40
|
36
|
38
|
3.8
|
4.2
|
3.7
|
4.0
|
85%
|
85%
|
84%
|
85%
|
-366%
|
-321%
|
-367%
|
-345%
|
Benin
|
70%
|
76%
|
69%
|
78%
|
14
|
15
|
14
|
15
|
9.2
|
10.1
|
9.2
|
10.0
|
63%
|
100%
|
63%
|
100%
|
95%
|
91%
|
94%
|
92%
|
Botswana
|
35%
|
36%
|
35%
|
37%
|
11
|
13
|
10
|
10
|
4.3
|
4.9
|
4.1
|
4.2
|
2%
|
2%
|
2%
|
2%
|
60%
|
53%
|
63%
|
61%
|
Burkina Faso
|
90%
|
93%
|
90%
|
95%
|
12
|
14
|
12
|
12
|
4.2
|
5.0
|
4.2
|
4.4
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
95%
|
97%
|
95%
|
91%
|
Burundi
|
100%
|
99%
|
99%
|
99%
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
3
|
2.5
|
5.3
|
2.5
|
4.9
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
84%
|
85%
|
85%
|
90%
|
Cameroon
|
33%
|
31%
|
38%
|
29%
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
12
|
2.3
|
2.7
|
2.3
|
2.8
|
28%
|
31%
|
30%
|
34%
|
39%
|
34%
|
40%
|
32%
|
Central African Rep.
|
83%
|
95%
|
76%
|
95%
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
1.7
|
3.9
|
1.5
|
3.3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
87%
|
95%
|
80%
|
94%
|
Chad
|
98%
|
99%
|
96%
|
99%
|
1
|
5
|
1
|
3
|
1.1
|
3.2
|
0.8
|
1.7
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
50%
|
-981%
|
-263%
|
-1369%
|
-588%
|
Congo
|
32%
|
27%
|
31%
|
24%
|
9
|
10
|
9
|
10
|
3.8
|
4.2
|
3.8
|
4.2
|
46%
|
47%
|
46%
|
47%
|
-374%
|
-331%
|
-374%
|
-331%
|
DRC
|
50%
|
66%
|
59%
|
65%
|
18
|
38
|
16
|
34
|
3.7
|
7.4
|
3.5
|
6.6
|
41%
|
50%
|
38%
|
50%
|
40%
|
59%
|
49%
|
54%
|
Cote d Ivoire
|
39%
|
34%
|
42%
|
33%
|
28
|
32
|
28
|
33
|
5.1
|
5.7
|
5.0
|
5.8
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
97%
|
Djibouti
|
54%
|
94%
|
57%
|
93%
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
4.3
|
4.4
|
4.3
|
4.0
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
77%
|
74%
|
79%
|
79%
|
Equatorial Guinea
|
81%
|
81%
|
66%
|
66%
|
50
|
50
|
50
|
51
|
39.1
|
39.1
|
39.2
|
39.2
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
98%
|
99%
|
99%
|
Eritrea
|
88%
|
94%
|
87%
|
94%
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
4.5
|
5.8
|
4.4
|
5.2
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
88%
|
75%
|
89%
|
76%
|
Ethiopia
|
100%
|
98%
|
100%
|
98%
|
31
|
35
|
31
|
32
|
3.2
|
3.9
|
3.2
|
3.6
|
1%
|
1%
|
1%
|
1%
|
74%
|
68%
|
74%
|
66%
|
Gabon
|
66%
|
69%
|
66%
|
67%
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
2.6
|
2.7
|
2.7
|
2.8
|
65%
|
65%
|
65%
|
65%
|
-645%
|
-639%
|
-641%
|
-616%
|
Gambia
|
63%
|
79%
|
61%
|
78%
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
2.5
|
2.8
|
2.5
|
2.6
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
93%
|
91%
|
93%
|
89%
|
Ghana
|
46%
|
37%
|
47%
|
38%
|
32
|
43
|
32
|
42
|
5.5
|
6.7
|
5.5
|
6.6
|
91%
|
92%
|
91%
|
92%
|
81%
|
94%
|
82%
|
93%
|
Guinea
|
88%
|
92%
|
88%
|
91%
|
11
|
11
|
11
|
11
|
4.0
|
4.4
|
4.0
|
4.3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
93%
|
89%
|
93%
|
88%
|
Guinea Bissau
|
92%
|
97%
|
91%
|
93%
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
4.1
|
5.0
|
4.1
|
4.6
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
92%
|
Kenya
|
55%
|
82%
|
60%
|
82%
|
42
|
42
|
42
|
42
|
5.6
|
6.3
|
5.5
|
6.1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
89%
|
80%
|
91%
|
82%
|
Lesotho
|
100%
|
99%
|
100%
|
100%
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
12.0
|
12.8
|
12.0
|
12.5
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
86%
|
86%
|
86%
|
83%
|
Liberia
|
70%
|
84%
|
25%
|
84%
|
3
|
4
|
4
|
3
|
6.6
|
7.8
|
8.3
|
7.2
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
89%
|
90%
|
102%
|
89%
|
Malawi
|
76%
|
85%
|
78%
|
85%
|
5
|
7
|
5
|
6
|
3.9
|
5.4
|
3.9
|
4.5
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
68%
|
71%
|
70%
|
63%
|
Mali
|
97%
|
97%
|
97%
|
98%
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
5.1
|
5.6
|
4.8
|
5.2
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
69%
|
66%
|
73%
|
68%
|
Mauritania
|
38%
|
39%
|
35%
|
37%
|
14
|
15
|
14
|
15
|
8.3
|
8.8
|
8.4
|
9.0
|
11%
|
11%
|
11%
|
11%
|
-54%
|
-49%
|
-51%
|
-45%
|
Mozambique
|
26%
|
20%
|
31%
|
25%
|
40
|
55
|
39
|
52
|
8.8
|
11.7
|
8.6
|
11.1
|
5%
|
6%
|
5%
|
6%
|
-45%
|
-33%
|
-45%
|
-36%
|
Namibia
|
70%
|
71%
|
69%
|
71%
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
9.4
|
9.2
|
9.4
|
9.3
|
18%
|
20%
|
18%
|
20%
|
52%
|
53%
|
53%
|
52%
|
Niger
|
60%
|
76%
|
60%
|
70%
|
6
|
10
|
6
|
7
|
4.1
|
6.1
|
4.0
|
4.6
|
82%
|
93%
|
82%
|
83%
|
-6%
|
88%
|
-6%
|
3%
|
Nigeria
|
36%
|
35%
|
30%
|
34%
|
385
|
394
|
383
|
393
|
5.7
|
6.1
|
5.7
|
6.0
|
29%
|
30%
|
29%
|
30%
|
-126%
|
-119%
|
-128%
|
-121%
|
Rwanda
|
97%
|
63%
|
97%
|
68%
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
4
|
1.3
|
2.2
|
1.3
|
2.0
|
0%
|
5%
|
0%
|
5%
|
83%
|
64%
|
86%
|
66%
|
Senegal
|
57%
|
53%
|
67%
|
54%
|
10
|
12
|
9
|
12
|
3.6
|
4.2
|
3.3
|
4.0
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
93%
|
93%
|
90%
|
93%
|
Sierra Leone
|
81%
|
93%
|
72%
|
94%
|
3
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
4.0
|
5.0
|
4.1
|
5.1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
95%
|
93%
|
93%
|
95%
|
Somalia
|
98%
|
98%
|
93%
|
98%
|
6
|
6
|
2
|
6
|
133.5
|
133.7
|
52.4
|
133.6
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
98%
|
98%
|
95%
|
98%
|
South Africa
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
10%
|
443
|
464
|
448
|
474
|
8.7
|
9.1
|
8.7
|
9.2
|
9%
|
9%
|
9%
|
9%
|
38%
|
37%
|
38%
|
36%
|
South Sudan
|
78%
|
94%
|
91%
|
94%
|
3
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
19%
|
19%
|
19%
|
19%
|
90%
|
95%
|
95%
|
95%
|
Sudan
|
34%
|
38%
|
37%
|
41%
|
52
|
55
|
54
|
55
|
4.5
|
4.9
|
4.5
|
4.7
|
63%
|
67%
|
63%
|
66%
|
59%
|
60%
|
64%
|
63%
|
Tanzania
|
73%
|
61%
|
81%
|
58%
|
32
|
49
|
31
|
45
|
3.5
|
5.0
|
3.4
|
4.5
|
18%
|
28%
|
17%
|
28%
|
46%
|
45%
|
50%
|
38%
|
Togo
|
43%
|
37%
|
70%
|
41%
|
5
|
8
|
4
|
8
|
7.6
|
10.9
|
6.8
|
10.1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
93%
|
96%
|
86%
|
96%
|
Uganda
|
79%
|
89%
|
97%
|
80%
|
7
|
12
|
6
|
8
|
1.4
|
2.4
|
1.3
|
2.0
|
1%
|
1%
|
0%
|
2%
|
68%
|
68%
|
72%
|
53%
|
Zambia
|
66%
|
68%
|
68%
|
73%
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
12
|
5.2
|
5.5
|
4.9
|
5.1
|
43%
|
44%
|
37%
|
49%
|
41%
|
38%
|
40%
|
39%
|
Zimbabwe
|
26%
|
21%
|
30%
|
28%
|
19
|
26
|
16
|
22
|
26.8
|
34.7
|
23.9
|
30.1
|
12%
|
15%
|
12%
|
13%
|
41%
|
32%
|
44%
|
34%
|
Note: 1 Solar hybrid technologies included in renewables, 2 Total primary energy supply per GDP [59], 3 Production of fossil fuel reserves during 2015-2030 per each country´s total amount of identified fossil fuel reserves, 4 Total net imports (imports minus exports) of coal, crude oil, oil products and natural gas as a share of total primary energy supply in 2030. Negative values correspond to net exporters. The differences in the RET share may occur since the electricity generation is not always the same among the scenarios and the supply mix differs since the electricity trading scheme changes among the scenarios
Environmental implications
The total carbon dioxide emissions of the evolution of the energy system in Africa increased from 1,213Mton in 2015 to 2,797Mton (NPLs), 2,9431Mton (NPHs), 2,793 (RDLs) and 2,919Mton (RDHs) depending on the scenario in 2030. NAPP is estimated to represent most of the continent´s carbon dioxide emissions in the future, although the share of renewable energy technologies increases followed by EAPP, SAPP, WAPP and CAPP (Supplementary Material B). Higher electricity consumption levels lead to higher carbon dioxide emissions. However, lower carbon dioxide emissions are emitted as the renewable technology costs decrease (RDLs, RDHs). Thus, a decreased cost of renewables could further assist an African nation in evolving its power sector to achieve universal access and achieve part of the National Determined Contribution greenhouse gas emissions targets.
Socio-economic implications: Job creation
Previous sections show that Africa needs energy to grow, which has environmental implications and is cost expensive. However, this energy transition and electricity access can create several jobs than lost. Different levels of jobs can be created associated with the construction and installation of the power generation technologies to the fuel use and specifically to the use of power generation technologies. In Africa, approximately 6.9 million direct jobs can be created by expanding power generation capacity and T&D network in the NPLs scenario, 8.7 million jobs in the NPHs scenario, 7.0 million jobs in the RDLs scenario and 9.6. million jobs in the RDHs scenario during 2020-2030 across the supply chain of the evolution of the power sector (Figure 6). Of this total number of jobs in each scenario, 6.4 million jobs in NPLs, 7.8 million jobs in the NPHs, 6.5 million jobs in the RDLs and 8.7 million in the RDHs scenarios accordingly are associated with the future installation and operation of specific power generation technologies. Solar power is expected to be the dominant technology in creating new employment opportunities (Figure 7). It is assumed that the manufacturing happens only locally and is not created from exports to other countries. In the Renewable Deployment scenarios, more jobs are created in the manufacturing (local) sector, construction&installation, and operation and maintenance but lower jobs on transmission since the future installed capacity is less due to higher penetration of off-grid renewable technologies. However, higher fuel jobs are created in the RDLs and RDHs scenarios than in the New Policies scenarios, primarily due to the fuel used in coal power plants until 2030. Increasing the share of renewables can boost employment in Africa, while fossil fuel development can support jobs in different ways. Further increasing the electricity consumption levels in Africa (NPHs, RDHs) is estimated to create more jobs. Solar hybrid mini-grid systems are not included in the analysis of job creation potential.