Trend of fertility from 2000 to 2016 in Ethiopia
The fertility rate has been slightly declined in Ethiopia over time. The fertility rate in Ethiopia for the period of 2000, 2005, 20011 and 2016 were 5.5, 5.4, 4.8 and 4.6 children per woman, respectively. The trends show an encouraging progress with fertility rate being reduced from 5.5 children per women in 2000 to about 4.6 children per women in 2016. This is equivalent to the reduction rate of 0.9 children per women for the period of 16 years (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Fertility rate per woman in Ethiopia (2000-2016)
A total of 9602 married women were included and 907 (9.4%) of the mothers have not born a child in their life time and only 307 (3.2%) of them have born 10 and more children (Table 1).
Table 1: Frequency distribution of number of children ever born per mothers
Number of children ever born
|
Frequency
|
Percentage (%)
|
0
|
907
|
9.4
|
1
|
1454
|
15.1
|
2
|
1408
|
14.7
|
3
|
1241
|
12.9
|
4
|
1077
|
11.2
|
5
|
952
|
9.9
|
6
|
778
|
8.1
|
7
|
699
|
7.3
|
8
|
476
|
5.0
|
9
|
303
|
3.2
|
10+
|
307
|
3.2
|
Total
|
9602
|
100.0
|
Demographic and socio-economic characteristics of fertility
The average children ever born in Ethiopia were 3.79 with standard deviation of 2.77. The highest average children ever born were occurred in Somali (4.77) and the lowest were, in Addis Ababa (1.99). The average children ever born for uneducated husbands (4.61) were two times higher than husbands with secondary and above education (2.28). The average children ever born in rural area (4.55) were higher than in urban (2.50). Women’s were from poor households (4.30) have the highest average children ever born as compared to rich households (3.13). In addition, working women (3.59) have lower average children ever born as compared to housewife women (3.89).
Farther more, the average children ever born from mothers whose age at first marriage greater than 17 (2.96) is lower as compared to mothers whose age at first birth is less than or equal to 17(4.25). The average children ever born were higher for mothers with no education (4.80) and not contraceptive use (4.04) among their respective groups (Table 2).
Table 2: Summary statistics of predictor variables related to fertility in Ethiopia.
Variables
|
Categories
|
Frequency (%)
|
Average per woman
|
Std. Dev.
|
Number of children
|
-
|
9602
|
3.79
|
2.77
|
Region
|
Tigray
|
935 (9.74)
|
3.86
|
2.81
|
Afar
|
858 (8.94)
|
3.77
|
3.02
|
Amhara
|
1114(11.60)
|
3.73
|
2.68
|
Oromia
|
1286(13.39)
|
4.23
|
2.79
|
Somali
|
973(10.13)
|
4.77
|
3.05
|
Benishangul
|
791(8.24)
|
4.11
|
2.77
|
SNNPR
|
1198(12.48)
|
4.27
|
2.71
|
Gambela
|
686(7.14)
|
3.12
|
2.20
|
Harari
|
568(5.92)
|
3.14
|
2.44
|
Addis Ababa
|
625(6.51)
|
1.99
|
1.49
|
Dire Dawa
|
568(5.92)
|
3.20
|
2.67
|
Residence
|
Urban
|
2369(24.67)
|
2.50
|
2.16
|
Rural
|
7233(75.33)
|
4.22
|
2.81
|
Women’s occupation
|
Housewife
|
6542(68.13)
|
3.89
|
2.79
|
Working
|
3060(31.87)
|
3.59
|
2.70
|
Have a dead child
|
No
|
7051(73.43)
|
2.95
|
2.32
|
Yes
|
2551(26.57)
|
6.12
|
2.55
|
Women’s education
|
No education
|
5625(58.58)
|
4.80
|
2.74
|
Primary
|
2621(27.30)
|
2.71
|
2.29
|
Secondary+
|
1356(14.12)
|
1.73
|
1.52
|
Household size
|
Less or equal to 4
|
3519(36.65)
|
1.78
|
1.68
|
Greater than 4
|
6083(63.35)
|
4.96
|
2.60
|
Wealth index
|
Poor
|
4354(45.34)
|
4.30
|
2.85
|
Middle
|
1342(13.98)
|
4.08
|
2.72
|
Rich
|
3906(40.68)
|
3.13
|
2.55
|
Contraceptive use
|
No
|
6715(69.93)
|
4.04
|
2.89
|
Yes
|
2887(30.07)
|
3.22
|
2.35
|
Age at first marriage
|
<=17 years
|
6231(64.89)
|
4.25
|
2.79
|
>17 years
|
3371(35.11)
|
2.96
|
2.52
|
Husband’s education
|
No education
|
4454(46.39)
|
4.61
|
2.84
|
Primary
|
3002(31.26)
|
3.66
|
2.62
|
Secondary+
|
2146(22.35)
|
2.28
|
2.04
|
Factors associated with Fertility in Ethiopia
Here under factor associated with fertility were presented using Poisson regression model. Region was significantly associated with fertility. The fertility rate of mothers live in Affar regions was 0.853 times (IRR =0.583; 95%CI: 0.805, 0.903) less likely as compared to mothers in Tigray. Similarly, the fertility rate of mothers live in Gambela regions was 0.895 times (IRR =0.895; 95%CI: 0.841, 0.952) less likely as compared to mothers in Tigray. Women live in rural had 1.058 times (IRR =1.058; 95%CI: 1.018, 1.100) more children compared to those lived in the urban area.
The result indicated that family size and experience of child death were significant factor of fertility. Mothers who were members of a larger family size (five plus) had about 2.23 times (IRR =2.23.; 95%CI: 2.168, 2.294) higher fertility compared to those who belonged to smaller family size. Similarly, mothers who had lost at least one of their children had about 63.6 percent (IRR =1.636; 95%CI: 1.601, 1.672) higher fertility compared to mothers who never had an experience of child death.
The result also showed that wealth index and mother’s education level were significant associated factor of fertility. The rich women had about 0.794 times (IRR =0.794; 95%CI: 0.685, 0.920) lower fertility as compared to the poor women. In addition, women who had primary education were 0.759 times (IRR =0.759; 95%CI: 0.737, 0.782) lower fertility than women who have no education. Women who had secondary and above education were 0.602 times (IRR =0.602; 95%CI: 0.570, 0.635) lower fertility than women who have no education.
Moreover, the fertility rate of mothers who have husbands attended primary education was decreased by 6.7% (IRR =0.933; 95%CI: 0.909, 0.957) as compared to husband’s who have no education. Similarity, the fertility rate of mothers who have husband attended secondary and above education was decreased by 8.3% (IRR =0.917; 95%CI: 0.880, 0.955) as compared to husband’s who have no education. Women married before the age of 18 had more children than those who marry later. Women who use contraceptives have significantly lower fertility rates than women who do not use (Table 3).
Table 3: Parameter estimates of Poisson regression model
Variables
|
IRR
|
95% CI of IRR
|
p-value
|
Intercept
|
2.064
|
1.944, 2.190
|
<.0001*
|
Region
|
|
|
|
Tigray (ref)
|
|
|
|
Afar
|
0.853
|
0.805, 0.903
|
<.0001*
|
Amhara
|
0.895
|
0.855, 0.937
|
<.0001*
|
Oromia
|
0.982
|
0.935, 1.031
|
0.4665
|
Somali
|
1.053
|
0.996, 1.113
|
0.068
|
Benishangul
|
0.999
|
0.948, 1.053
|
0.9832
|
SNNPR
|
1.009
|
0.959, 1.063
|
0.7207
|
Gambela
|
0.895
|
0.841, 0.952
|
0.0005*
|
Harari
|
0.959
|
0.899, 1.023
|
0.2044
|
Addis Ababa
|
0.934
|
0.869, 1.004
|
0.0659
|
Dire Dawa
|
0.930
|
0.872, 0.993
|
0.0297*
|
Residence
|
|
|
|
Urban (ref)
|
|
|
|
Rural
|
1.058
|
1.018, 1.100
|
0.0041*
|
Mother occupation
|
|
|
|
House wife (ref)
|
|
|
|
Working
|
1.019
|
0.995. 1.043
|
0.1183
|
Have a dead child
|
|
|
|
No (ref)
|
|
|
|
Yes
|
1.636
|
1.601, 1.672
|
<.0001*
|
Mother’s education
|
|
|
|
No education (ref)
|
|
|
|
Primary
|
0.759
|
0.737, 0.782
|
<.0001*
|
Secondary and above
|
0.602
|
0.570, 0.635
|
<.0001*
|
Household size
|
|
|
|
Less or equal to 4 (ref)
|
|
|
|
Greater than 4
|
2.230
|
2.168, 2.294
|
<.0001*
|
Wealth index
|
|
|
|
Poor (ref)
|
|
|
|
Middle
|
0.999
|
0.968, 1.031
|
0.9663
|
Rich
|
0.794
|
0.685, 0.920
|
0.0020*
|
Contraceptive use
|
|
|
|
No (ref)
|
|
|
|
Yes
|
0.973
|
0.948, 0.998
|
0.0362*
|
Age at first Marriage in years
|
|
|
|
<=17 years (ref)
|
|
|
|
>17 years
|
0.853
|
0.832, 0.873
|
<.0001*
|
Husband’s education
|
|
|
|
No education (ref)
|
|
|
|
Primary
|
0.933
|
0.909, 0.957
|
<.0001*
|
Secondary and above
|
0.917
|
0.880, 0.955
|
<.0001*
|
Note: ref: reference category of the categorical variable;
* Significant at 5% level of significance