Our study provides a baseline of the exticntion risk of the world’s fish, against which to track trends in the conservation status of fish in future. Overall, we show that 15% of fish species in our sample are estimated to be threatened with extinction and that threat is higher in freshwaters compared to marine systems. Our results confirm previous findings on the truly alarming conservation status of freshwater fishes57,58; in the same way that other freshwater biodiversity is highly threatened with extinction13,20,48.
The overall sRLI for fishes is similar to the Red List Index for birds12, and dragonflies and damselflies 18, and higher than for the remaining evaluated taxonomic groups (Fig. 1). Overall, the sRLI for marine fishes is the highest of the Red List indices calculated so far (bar the historical index estimated for reef-building corals pre-199824). Our estimate of 4.7% of marine fish threatened with extinction is lower than threat levels found in other studies on extinction risk of marine fishes: regional shorefishes (5-9.4%41,46), sharks and rays (17.4%34), hagfishes (12%30), groupers (12%33), tarpons, ladyfishes and bonefishes (12.5%35), porgies (8.6%37), and pufferfishes (7.9%38). But we are not surprised as threat tends to be greatest in shallower waters and a random sample of marine fishes will have disproportionately greater deepwater species than the shallowwater taxa that have dominated early assessment priorities. The sRLI calculated for freshwater fishes is much lower and similar to the RLI for mammals and plants19. It is slightly higher than RLIs for other freshwater groups, with a lower estimated threat level (crayfishes48, freshwater crabs47 and shrimps59). However, note that the sRLI protocol was not developed to accurately estimate threat levels in a species group, but to accurately detect extinction risk trends in a species group over time11. Thus, any threat estimates from our sample should be treated with caution and may only be broadly indicative of overall levels of threat within fishes. However, work is ongoing to test the accuracy of threat estimates from sRLI samples.
The level of data deficiency in our Sampled List of fishes is comparable to that found in other species groups such as crayfish48 and reptiles17, and lower than that observed in freshwater crabs47 and freshwater molluscs20. While Data Deficient species should be considered as potentially threatened until their status can be assessed8, they cannot contribute to the Red List Index10 unless their status can be predicted using trait-based methods. Reducing data deficiency is thus important to produce more robust knowledge on extinction risk patterns and RLI values in future60. With data deficiency in our sample highest in parts of Southeast Asia, this region would make a logical place to target to reduce DD, specifically for marine fish for which DD currently produces wide margins of uncertainty around estimated threat levels.
Population trends were lacking for many marine fishes beyond coastal areas, as most of our knowledge on the marine realm comes from coastal, intertidal or neritic habitats: for example, 73% of marine fish species assessed on the IUCN Red List occur in these habitats9. This is especially problematic since marine fishes were predominantly assessed as threatened under criterion A (Fig. 1B), i.e. because of a population reduction over ten years or three generations. Results offered by the Living Planet Index, a measure of the trends of global biodiversity based on population trends of vertebrate species from around the world61, showed an average decline of around 52% for monitored marine vertebrate populations since 197062, compared to 84% for freshwater vertebrate populations5. This suggests that the risk of population declines for those species with unknown populations trends in our sample should not be underestimated, and that we need to push efforts towards better monitoring and estimating populations.
Fishes are among the most diverse classes of vertebrates with significant differences between marine and freshwater environmental realms. Despite differences between realms, our results consistently show exploitation and pollution are the main threats to both marine and freshwater fishes (Fig. 2). In the marine realm, overexploitation is overwhelmingly prominent in assessments of nearshore and epipelagic fishes30,34,38. Despite low overall threat levels of marine fishes in our study, in 2015 only 7% of globally assessed stocks were underfished according to the FAO63, and increases in exploitation pressure in future may lead to further declines in species. Safeguarding marine fish diversity needs the urgent engagement of different stakeholders to ensure the sustainability of this resource while also addressing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, e.g. such as SDG2 on combatting hunger and malnutrition.
The impact of human settlements and cities around aquatic ecosystems and increasing water demand have led to the degradation of freshwater biodiversity57,58, especially through water pollution, dams and water exploitation, river fragmentation, habitat loss, and establishment of non-native species58, all threats which were prominently recorded in the sRLI assessments. Rivers are highly connected linear structures64: they are collectors of terrestrial impacts of the landscapes they drain, conducting them downstream. Management plans therefore need to consider the unique characteristics of freshwater systems and their high connectivity64,65.
Our study provides the first in-depth test of representativeness of the sRLI -including the separate disaggregated indices obtained for marine and freshwater fishes- in terms of geographic, ecological and trait diversity. This is particularly important since the sRLI method at present randomly draws species from the species list; stratification of the sample was originally considered, but was rejected as a workable strategy due to the general lack of knowledge on any of these factors prior to the assessment process11. Thus far, tests have only been carried out to show that the recommended sRLI sample sizes are large enough to accurately reflect species group attributes regarding biogeographic realm, ecosystem types and taxonomy11,16. Representativeness is important since, for example, marine fishes that are restricted to the continental shelf, and especially those that occupy shallow habitats of less than 50 m depth, have a significantly higher proportion of threatened species compared to marine fishes that occur in waters deeper than 300 m45, while on the other hand, deep sea fishes are often assumed to be Least Concern because of a lack of intense fishing pressure on these fishes, although low growth rates, late maturity, low fecundity and long lifespans of many deep sea fishes make them particularly vulnerable to any level of exploitation66. Here, we again showed that there were no significant differences in the proportions among taxonomic groups, geographic regions and habitat types between the Sampled and Global List of fishes, while also showing representativeness of other biological traits (life span, generation time, trophic level and vulnerability index). The Sampled List seems to not only be sufficiently large to accurately detect trend direction in the extinction risk of the world’s fishes11,16, but also to be representative of the world’s fish taxonomic, trait and ecological diversity.
Recent work has shown that where assessments occur every ten years, samples of 400 non-DD species may be sufficient to accurately show direction of RLI trend of a group16. According to this, our study confirms the suitability and representativeness of calculated sRLIs for fishes, including the separate disaggregated indices obtained for marine (598 non-DD species) and freshwater fishes (610 non-DD species). Once completed, the data generated by the global freshwater assessment (carried out through the IUCN-Toyota Red List Partnership) can be uses to re-evaluate the representativeness of our sRLI sample of fishes, especially to see whether the spatial representativeness of our freshwater sample is broadly representative of overall freshwater fish species richness patterns (Fig. 3).
In this study, we calculated the baseline sRLI for 2010, the year in which the assessments of the selected 1,500 species was concluded. The index results published here provide the baseline towards monitoring global extinction risk in this highly species-rich group, allowing us to track future changes and trends in the conservation status of the world’s fishes. Specifically, with the addition of subsequent assessments this index lets us track improvements or deteriorations in the status of the world’s fishes, considering separately freshwater and marine species. A current reassessment would allow us to check how fishes fared against Aichi Target 12, and provide a starting point for better conservation action and management for these vital aquatic resources. Many of the original assessments have already undergone (20,878 species) or are in the process of reassessment of their IUCN Red List status. As such, a first step for reassessment of the sRLI is to collate recent assessments and update the status of those species which have undergone non-genuine changes in their assessment status in recent years (i.e. changes because of improved data rather than actual improvements or deteriorations in extinction risk status). Secondly, we need to prioritise reassessments of those species which were in threatened or Near Threatened categories in 2010, to allow in depth reassessment. As in other assessment processes, Least Concern species may be fast-tracked more rapidly through the assessment process67. Thirdly, in the absence of a reassessment for 2020, application of retrospective assessments to assess past extinction risk status from a present perspective68–70 should be considered to derive long-term trends in extinction risk over time.
Aichi Target 12 for biodiversity has not been met2. Considering the existing priorities and limited conservation resources to establish an efficient reassessment of larger samples, the selected subset of species can inform current and future policy targets about trends on fish species conservation and help to allocate efforts and resources. Given that to date, fishes have been largely neglected in large-scale conservation analyses, likely due to an apathetic public perception of these animals71,72 and a comparatively low level of research compared to other vertebrate groups, not only in non-commercial73, but also charismatic species of fish74, development and upkeep of an effective tool to communicate fish trends is urgently required. Current and updated assessments are necessary in the scenario of a changing world where threats and conservation status of biodiversity are constantly being modified4,75. For example, climate change is an emerging threat of freshwater ecosystems57,75, though still features less prominently in IUCN Red List assessments. Other freshwater assessments have already noted climate change as a major future threat20 and it is likely to become a more important threat in future reassessments of our sample.