In order to solve the problem of low accuracy about the autogenous risk assessment in minded-out area, which caused several kinds of risk factors like ambiguity, arbitrament, uncertainty, variability and diversity, a combination weighting set pair analysis (SPA) coupling evaluation should be put forward. Firstly, based on the mechanism and occurrence conditions of coal spontaneous combustion, There are 11 influencing factors identified and extracted from the three aspects, which are named as coal spontaneous combustion tendency, extraction conditions, air leakage and heat storage conditions; Then, euclidean measure should be introduced to make sure the degree in difference between the subjective and objective weights and compromising modulus, so the combined weights of each index were obtained. Based on SPA theory, a combined weighting spa coupling mining model was constructed; Finally, Setting three minded-out areas affected by gas drainage conditions in Ping Dingshan No.10 Coal Mine as an example, the set pair association degree expression of evaluation index and corresponding standard is obtained, and finally the risk level was determined. The results show that the prediction results of spontaneous combustion risk in No.1, No.2 and No.3 minded-out areas are consistent with the measured results, and the prediction accuracy of the model is high.