Although severe metabolic acidosis and acute kidney injury are major causes of death from severe malaria, diagnosing them is challenging in low resource settings. In this study, we identified clinical features of severe metabolic acidosis and acute kidney injury in children with severe malaria at admission. The models we describe can be used to predict a group of children with a high chance of having severe metabolic acidosis or acute kidney injury, which could then be selected for further laboratory work-up. Diagnosing these complications is important for the clinical management, monitoring, and, in the case of AKI, deciding on potential renal replacement therapy.
Severe Metabolic Acidosis
We found that the clinical features associated with severe metabolic acidosis in children with severe falciparum malaria at admission in this study were young age and prostration at admission. Clinical features that contribute to severe metabolic acidosis were severe anaemia, hypoglycaemia, acute kidney injury and black water fever. Features occurring because of severe metabolic acidosis were respiratory distress, deep breathing and coma at admission. All signs can be used to identify the group with a high probability of having severe metabolic acidosis.
Similar findings were identified in a prognostic study in the Gambia with comparable discriminative performance (ROC: 0.83) (17). This study identified; low Blantyre Coma Score (BCS: 0–2), high parasitaemia, high respiratory rate for age and deep breathing as clinical features associated with hyperlactataemia in children with severe malaria (17). Hyperparasitaemia was not associated with severe metabolic acidosis in our study and this may be attributed to the study in the Gambia occurring in a low transmission setting.
Signs of respiratory distress are commonly associated with Severe Metabolic Acidosis, as is the finding in this study and studies in the Gambia, Malawi and Kenya (19, 23, 25, 30). Despite the potential overlap between respiratory distress from severe malaria and severe pneumonia, we argue, in agreement with other studies, that respiratory distress is a major independent predictor of severe metabolic acidosis (31–33).
Our study suggests that deep breathing is a strong independent predictor of severe metabolic acidosis as it is an important element of respiratory compensation as a consequence of metabolic acidosis (34). In this study, children with severe malaria presenting with deep breathing were 8 times more likely to have severe metabolic acidosis upon univariable analysis (OR: 8.74, CI: 7.11–10.74) and 5 times more likely (OR: 5.41, CI: 4.26–6.89) upon multivariable analysis. Although inter-observer variability may affect the use of this sign as a surrogate marker for Severe Metabolic Acidosis, it may be a reliable starting point for screening for children who require specialised management upon admission (35).
Our study found that younger children were more likely to have Severe Metabolic Acidosis upon admission with severe malaria. Although a study in South East Asia found that metabolic acidosis did not vary with age, our study findings are consistent with clinical trials in Tanzania (36, 37). This may suggest that the higher transmission rates of Malaria in Africa increase the odds of severe metabolic acidosis in children.
Mtove et al found that severe anaemia and hypoglycaemia were significantly associated with hyperlactataemia upon univariable logistic regression, as was the case in our findings (36). Severe anaemia is a known complication of malaria and contributes to fluid depletion and hypoxia in children with severe malaria and hypoglycaemia is a major cause of mortality in children with Malaria (9). These are complications of malaria that contribute to causing severe metabolic acidosis.
In contrast with our findings, Newton et al found deep breathing, coma, and hypoglycaemia to be highly specific for hyperlactatemia in three different countries (20). Their study concluded that these were not reliable surrogate markers of severe metabolic acidosis (20).
Our model performed well (AUC: 81) and, upon internal validation, deep breathing, hypoglycaemia, and coma were reliable prognostic predictors of severe metabolic acidosis. We recommend prospective, external validation studies to explore the generalisability of this model. To contribute to the improvement of the clinical management of these complications, further studies should study the effect of blood transfusions, fluid management and oxygen support to children identified as severe metabolic acidosis.
Acute Kidney Injury
We found that older children, and children who presented with coma, jaundice and hypoglycaemia were more likely to have AKI upon admission with severe malaria. Children who presented with decompensated shock, blackwater fever and anaemia (mild and severe) were more likely to have AKI as these are causes of AKI. Features associated with AKI as clinical consequences of AKI were, anuria, hypernatremia, hyperkalaemia and severe metabolic acidosis.
AKI is often underdiagnosed in children, and our observed prevalence of 24.3% among all admissions and 49.2% among all children who died is alarming. A study in the Gambia found that 25% of children with cerebral malaria had a glomerulo-tubular pattern of renal pathology (38). Although that study lacked the power to suggest a significant association between mortality and AKI in severe malaria, it is consistent with the strong significance of coma as an associated feature to AKI in our study (38).
Our analysis suggests that oliguria is not a reliable indicator of AKI in children with severe falciparum malaria. Only 7 of 5426 children had oliguria and although it was a significant sign at univariable analysis, it was not significant upon multivariable analysis. This may suggest that this is an inconsistent, or late sign of AKI as has been suggested in sub-Saharan Africa and India (22, 39).
While Black water fever was significantly associated with AKI, it was present in only 237 of 5426 children (4.4%) (4). Children with severe falciparum malaria in India had an AKI incidence of 19% though none had black water fever (39). It remains an important feature, as it was the leading cause of AKI among children in a nephrology unit in the Democratic Republic of Congo (12).
Our findings of anaemia (mild and severe), decompensated shock, hypernatremia and hyperkalaemia being significantly associated with AKI are consistent with studies that identify the role of dehydration in the development of AKI in severe Malaria(12, 38, 39). Further study is needed to understand appropriate fluid management in children as fluid bolus resuscitation was associated with increased mortality in a large trial (40).
Our analysis suggests that severe metabolic acidosis and AKI are interrelated. Hypoglycaemia, coma and severe anaemia are features common to these two outcomes. This could reinforce these as major targets for clinical interventions
Increasing age being significantly associated with AKI in this study alludes to the changing epidemiology of severe malaria. An observational study in Kenya found a larger increase in mean age of severe malarial anaemia and cerebral anaemia between 1989 and 2016, when compared to children that did not have malaria (31). A higher mean age of renal involvement in children with severe malaria was seen in the DRC (6.7 years), India (7.7 years) and south-east Asia (2, 12, 39). This is attributed to a delay of acquired immunity and increase of severe malaria in older children as malaria prevention efforts intensified for younger children over the years.
Our model performed well in distinguishing AKI by its presenting features. However, because of the high mortality among children with AKI and significance of late signs, it may be important to invest in biomarker diagnoses for AKI in African hospitals. This would allow for clinical staging of AKI which we were not able to do in this study.