Scheme and Outcomes
The subjects were two groups of hypothetical 1,000 patients each, who had suffered from acute stroke in Japan. One patient group conventionally used rehabilitation services five or six days a week, and the other, for seven days a week, for 30 days after the onset of stroke in acute hospitals (five-/six-day group and seven-day group, respectively). The two groups were compared in the cost utility analysis, for which effectiveness of the seven-days-per-week rehabilitation was based on the study by Kinoshita et al [10]. The characteristic of patients were according to that study. The analysis period was five years after onset. The design of this study was shown in Fig. 1. In Japan, it was common for acute stroke patients to be admitted in an acute hospital, and after being discharged, in a convalescent hospital, for treatments such as rehabilitation. In the National fee schedule in Japan, additional fee for acute stroke rehabilitation can be charged for 30 days after onset [13]. Based on the information in the National fee schedule, it was assumed that the duration of stay in acute hospitals in this study is 30 days, and that in convalescent hospitals is up to 90 days (i.e.3 months) [14]. It was also assumed that the two groups differed in the frequency of rehabilitation services utilized in the acute stage, though there was no such difference in medical services they received in the convalescent stage [11] From the 4th month, the patients utilized long-term care services according to their severity, which was described later section (“Long-term care cost estimate” section).
The primary outcome for the cost utility analysis was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), which is commonly used for health technology assessment in many countries such as UK [15] and Japan [12]. ICER was estimated as incremental costs brought by a new treatment or medical service divided by incremental clinical outcomes. The ICER for this study was calculated using the Equation below. Quality-adjusted life years (QALY), a standard measure in health technology assessment, was used as a measure of clinical outcome [12]. Calculated ICERs were evaluated with the threshold of 5,000,000 yen/QALY (approximately US$43,055), in accordance with the one used in the cost-effectiveness evaluations in Japan [16].
\(ICER=\frac{Costs in 7-day group-Costs in 5-or 6-day group}{QALY gained in 7-day group-QALY gained in 5-or 6- day group}\) Equation
In the Japanese medical system, universal rates are decided for each medical service, treatment, or drug in the national fee schedule [17]. The rate of co-payment differs depending on patient groups (e.g., 30% for most patients, 10% for patients aged 75 years or older, and no charge for welfare recipients), and the rest is paid by insurers and the government. In total, only 11% of the national medical expenditure is covered by patient co-payments. A large part is covered by the public budget, and the Guideline for Preparing Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation in Japan recommends that health technology assessment be conducted from the public health payer’s perspective, which basically includes medical costs including patient co-payments and payments by insurers and the government [11]. However, the guideline also states that long-term care costs can be included when the effect of public long-term care costs is important. Since this was the case with acute stroke, by which patients had severe sequela, our analysis was based both on the public health payer’s perspective, and public healthcare and long-term care payerʼs perspective. The latest national fee schedule, which was published in 2020 [13], was used. The costs and QALYs were discounted by 2% per year, according to the Japanese guideline [11]. After the analysis, the results were converted to US$ using the currency exchange rate as of March 10, 2022 (US$1 = 116.133 yen). The entire process was repeated 1000 times.
Patient severity estimate
Patient severity from the fourth to the 60th month was estimated using Markov modeling. The Markov model was a simulation model in which transition states and transition probabilities, as well as patients’ moves between the transition states at a Markov cycle (i.e., the frequency at which patients move), are defined. The Markov model has been applied to simulations of patients with various diseases [18, 19] and with stroke patients [20, 21]. In this study, three states—mRS0-2 (functionally independent), mRS3-5 (disabled), and mRS6 (death)—were defined. The Markov cycle was set as one month, and the model structure and the transition probabilities obtained in a previous study by Health Quality Ontario [22]
Data on patient severity at three month after the onset of stroke (initial probability) was obtained from a previous study by Kinoshita et al., which compared the two groups using the Japanese Rehabilitation Database (modified Rankin Scale (mRS) 012:mRS345:mRS6 = 43.3: 54.5: 2.2 for the seven-day group and mRS012:mRS345:mRS6 = 37.6:58.5:3.9 for the five-/six-day group) [10]. The study showed that patient severity was significantly lower in the group with seven-days-per-week schedule even after adjustment by related parameters. Patient severity was based on the modified Rankin Scale. Considering uncertainty in patient severity, two other scenarios were also set, changing the rate of patients with mRS0-2 severity. The rate of patients with mRS0-2 severity was set by calculating the risk ratio for mRS0-2 severity from the previous study [10], and by using the upper and lower edge of 95CI to determine the patient severity at three months (best scenario and worst scenario, respectively). The mRS stage distributions for the seven-day group were mRS0-2: mRS3-5: mRS6 = 47.4:50.4:2.2 in the best scenario, and mRS0-2: mRS3-5: mRS6 = 39.7:56.4:3.9 in the worst scenario. The patient severity at 90 days was randomly decided for each patient according to those initial probabilities. R ver. 3.5.2 was used for the simulation. After the simulation using the Markov model, patients were divided into finer mRS stages (from mRS 0 to 6) at each time cycle because differences could exist even in functionally independent patients or disabled patients. Patients at each mRS stage were divided into finer mRS grades with the proportion of mRS grades by Hattori et al. (mRS0:1:2 = 47:46:61, mRS3:4:5 = 66:65:45) [23]. Based on the estimated patient severity, QALYs and cost estimates were analyzed, as explained later. This entire process of estimating the severity were repeated 1000 times.
Medical cost
In this study, it was assumed that there was no difference in medical services provided to the seven-day and five-six-day groups, except for the number of rehabilitation services in the acute stage. No significant difference was found between the two groups in length of stay and treatments provided in the acute stage, such as administration of recombinant tissue plasminogen activator in the study by Kinoshita [10]. It was also assumed that medical costs after discharge from acute hospitals were not included in the analysis.
In the medical cost analysis, patients utilized rehabilitation services for 30 days after onset. The day of onset was randomly assigned to patients, from Sunday to Saturday, because the number of rehabilitation days were affected by what day of the week the stroke occurred.
In the Japanese medical system, the time required for rehabilitation services is 20 minutes per unit [11]. It was assumed that the number of rehabilitation units a patient utilizes per day was 4.3 [11], and was changed between 3 to 6, as sensitivity analysis. The national fee for per-unit rehabilitation service is $21.1. An additional fee of $2.58 per unit was charged for rehabilitation during the first 30 days, and there is another fee of $3.88 per unit during the first 14 days [11], which is charged when a full-time (or equivalent) rehabilitation physician is engaged. Since there were no data on proportion of hospitals that provide rehabilitation for acute stroke patients five to six days a week, it was assumed that all the patients in the five-/six-day group utilized rehabilitation services five days a week for a conservative cost estimate.
Long-term-care cost
It was assumed that long-term-care costs differed depending on patient severity. The Japanese long-term care system divides patients with care needs into seven levels based on their severity: Support level 1–2 and Care Needs level 1–5 [24]. The higher the level, the severer a patient is. Patients with Support level needs are less severe than those with Care Needs level. First, the estimated patient severity in the form of mRS stages was transformed into severity in the form of long-term-care needs (the seven levels), according to a previous study [25] (Table 1). For example, to estimate long-term-care costs, patients with mRS1 disability were assigned to Support level 1. Patients with mRS4 were assigned to Care Needs level 2 or 3, and patients with mRS5 were assigned to Care Needs level 4 or 5, according to the proportion of the patients in each Care Needs level in the previous survey by the Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare [26] (i.e.Care level 2:3 = 3,578:2,300, Care level 4:5 = 1,932:1,873). The rate of service utilization was defined by patient severity under the premise that, the severer a patient, the more care services she/he is likely to be utilized (Table 1) [24]. Data on long-term-care costs were calculated according to a previous study by Yamaga and Ikeda, in which the costs were estimated based on a survey by the Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare by dividing the amount of total long-term expenditure at each Care Needs level by the number of patients in each Care Needs level [27] (Table 1).
Table 1
QOL utility, care needs level, utilization rate of long-term care services, and long-term care costs used in the simulation
|
mRS0
|
mRS1
|
mRS2
|
mRS3
|
mRS4
|
mRS5
|
mRS6
|
QOL utility (SD) [30]
|
0.89 (0.114)
|
0.797 (0.084)
|
0.65 (0.074)
|
0.588 (0.067)
|
0.363 (0.073)
|
0.092 (0.08)
|
0 (0)
|
Care needs level [32]
|
|
Support level 1
|
Support level 2
|
Care level1
|
Care level
2 or 3*
|
Care level 4 or 5*
|
|
Utilization rate of long-term care services [30]
|
0
|
0.216
|
0.915
|
0.985
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
Long-term care costs based on care needs level ($/month) [32]
|
|
249
|
427
|
915
|
Level 2
1238
Level 3
1812
|
Level 4 2174
Level 5
2504
|
|
*Patients are assigned to the either of the 2 Care Level according to the proportion of the patients shown in Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions [33] (Care level 2:3 = 3,578:2,300, Care level 4:5 = 1,932:1,873) |
mRS: modified Rankin Scale, QOL: Quality of life
Table legend: Table 1 shows the parameter inputs for each mRS grade used in the analysis.
QALY estimation
The patients were assigned quality of life (QOL) utility according to their mRS grades. Data on QOL utility for each mRS stage was obtained from the study by Hattori, which was conducted on Japanese subjects [23]. The QOL utility was randomly generated under the assumption that the values were normally distributed, and utility values were generated for each patient, with the average and standard deviation as shown in Table 1.
Sensitivity Analysis
To consider the uncertainty of cost-effectiveness, sensitivity analysis was conducted. The number of rehabilitation units per day was changed from 3 to 6. Medical costs and long-term care costs were respectively changed from 0.9 time to 1.1 times since these costs were universal, and the revision rates are approximately 1% overall every 2 years. Therefore, drastic changes in medical costs and long-term care costs were not expected. The discount rate was changed from 0–4%, according to the Japanese guideline [12]. Finally, the patient severity at the third month was changed according to the study by Kinoshita et al [9], as it was stated in the previous section (i.e.best scenario and worst scenario).