The activity of ERS is significantly different between tumor and normal samples in HNSCC
In this study, the datasets of 500 HNSCC samples and 44 normal samples were obtained from the TCGA database. To estimate the ERS activity of normal and tumor samples, we employed ssGSEA algorithm using a list of ERS-related genes. The results showed that there was a significant difference of ERS activity between tumor and control samples in HNSCC (P < 0.0001, Fig. 1A). Moreover, tumor samples displayed higher ERS activity compared to normal samples. Then, we further analyzed the expression levels of 98 ERS-related genes in normal and tumor samples, and found that there were 28 genes differently expressed between normal and tumor samples (P < 0.05, Fig. 1B, Table 2). These results suggest that ERS may be associated with the prognosis of HNSCC.
Table 2
The difference of the expression levels of 98 ERS-related genes between normal and tumor samples.
Gene | F | Sig. | t |
EXTL1 | 206.4991 | 6.61E-40 | 8.527505 |
ERN2 | 57.63663 | 1.39E-13 | 4.229211 |
AGR2 | 34.11768 | 8.95E-09 | 3.008987 |
ASNS | 22.37632 | 2.86E-06 | -7.36346 |
EXOSC2 | 14.43803 | 0.000161 | -10.301 |
EXOSC5 | 13.56296 | 0.000254 | -6.68298 |
COPS5 | 11.267 | 0.000844 | -9.21954 |
FKBP14 | 10.47791 | 0.001282 | -9.31252 |
EXOSC7 | 10.3245 | 0.001391 | -4.44995 |
EXOSC8 | 10.08104 | 0.001583 | -7.10474 |
YIF1A | 8.614596 | 0.003476 | -10.7409 |
DCTN1 | 7.942363 | 0.005005 | -6.27158 |
PREB | 6.80378 | 0.009347 | -5.40872 |
DDX11 | 6.671145 | 0.01006 | -10.5792 |
MBTPS2 | 6.455352 | 0.01134 | -4.76203 |
BAX | 6.293956 | 0.012406 | -12.9178 |
ACADVL | 6.286436 | 0.012458 | 5.685526 |
EXOSC9 | 6.209892 | 0.013002 | -9.35448 |
LMNA | 6.02593 | 0.01441 | -6.60223 |
TLN1 | 5.935988 | 0.015156 | -4.26637 |
CALR | 4.945716 | 0.026567 | -13.6833 |
DNAJB11 | 4.72582 | 0.030145 | -12.7162 |
ZBTB17 | 4.717604 | 0.030288 | -10.4849 |
KDELR3 | 4.685712 | 0.03085 | -8.57213 |
VAPB | 4.466379 | 0.035025 | -5.47148 |
PARP16 | 4.282694 | 0.038976 | -3.28037 |
DDIT3 | 4.050781 | 0.044645 | -7.9171 |
PLA2G4B | 3.964372 | 0.046974 | -5.0994 |
Identification Of An Ers-related Prognostic Signature For Hnscc Patients
To exploit the prognosis-related genes from the 98 ERS-related genes in HNSCC, we firstly utilized univariate Cox regression analysis. Thus, 19 genes related to OS of HNSCC were obtained (P < 0.05, Fig. 2A, Table 3). Finally, as a result of multivariate Cox regression analysis, a six-mRNA (ASNS, EXOSC6, BAK1, TPP1, EXOSC8 and TATDN2) prognostic model was developed to predict prognosis of HNSCC. Among these six genes, the expression of ASNS and EXOSC8 has marked difference between normal and tumor samples in HNSCC (P < 0.05, Figure S1). Hence, based on these six genes, the HNSCC risk score system was established as follows: risk score= (0.6624 × expression value of ASNS) + (1.2499× expression value of EXOSC6) + (0.9704 × expression value of BAK1) + (1.1852 × expression value of TPP1) + (0.7885 × expression value of EXOSC8) + (-2.0666 × expression value of TATDN2).
Table 3
The list of 19 genes related to OS of HNSCC in univariate Cox regression analysis.
Gene | HR | z | pvalue | Gene |
HSPA5 | 13.13133 | 3.071866 | 0.002127 | HSPA5 |
ASNS | 2.034367 | 2.82672 | 0.004703 | ASNS |
FKBP14 | 2.1636 | 2.720435 | 0.00652 | FKBP14 |
BFAR | 4.181218 | 2.653028 | 0.007977 | BFAR |
EXOSC6 | 3.941341 | 2.618536 | 0.008831 | EXOSC6 |
EXOSC1 | 5.030502 | 2.612301 | 0.008994 | EXOSC1 |
PARN | 4.922551 | 2.566099 | 0.010285 | PARN |
BAK1 | 3.388038 | 2.535093 | 0.011242 | BAK1 |
TPP1 | 3.490236 | 2.491723 | 0.012713 | TPP1 |
SRPRB | 4.030575 | 2.40236 | 0.01629 | SRPRB |
HSP90B1 | 7.324101 | 2.384999 | 0.017079 | HSP90B1 |
ATF6 | 3.50853 | 2.354241 | 0.018561 | ATF6 |
PDIA6 | 3.346957 | 2.275343 | 0.022885 | PDIA6 |
EXOSC8 | 2.794459 | 2.255136 | 0.024125 | EXOSC8 |
DNAJB11 | 3.05514 | 2.249003 | 0.024512 | DNAJB11 |
SHC1 | 3.536891 | 2.206326 | 0.027361 | SHC1 |
TATDN2 | 0.377418 | -2.1082 | 0.035014 | TATDN2 |
YIF1A | 3.461627 | 2.054721 | 0.039906 | YIF1A |
According to this formula, each patient was endowed a risk score. Then, 500 patients in the TCGA dataset were classified into high-risk and low-risk groups by the cut-off value of 1.058 as the median value of risk score. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curves showed that patients in high-risk groups tended to have poorer clinical outcomes compared to those in low-risk groups (Log-rank P = 0.0002, Fig. 2B). The distribution of gene risk scores and patients’ survival status of 500 HNSCC patients showed that patients’ mortality rate was augmented in the high-risk group compared to thoes in the low-risk group in (Fig. 2C). Furthermore, AUC value of 5-year OS was 0.687, which illustrated a medium accuracy of the ERS-related signature in OS prediction in HNSCC (Fig. 2D).
In view of predictive value of the signature for OS, we curious that whether the signature can also predict RFS, DFS and PFS in HNSCC. Surprisingly, K-M curves illustrated that patients in high-risk groups had significantly shorter RFS, DFS and PFS when compared with those in low-risk groups (RFS: Log-rank P = 0.0160, DFS: Log-rank P = 0.0001, PFS: Log-rank P = 0.0007, Fig. 2E). In addition, AUC values of 5-year RFS, DFS and PFS was 0.623, 0.711 and 0.678, respectively, implying medium prediction performance of our signature for RFS, DFS and PFS of HNSCC patients (Fig. 2F).
The Correlation Of The Ers-related Signature With Clinical Characteristics Of Hnscc Patients
Correlation analysis indicated that survival status, T, cancer status, perineural invasion present and treatment response were significantly associated with the risk score based on the ERS-related signature (P < 0.05, Fig. 3A, Table 4). The strip chart showed that the risk of patient mortality rate obviously elevated, while the T staging gradually rose and the treatment response rate markedly decreased as the risk score ascended (Fig. 3A). The chi-squared test demonstrated that the high-risk group significantly tended to high probability of death (P < 0.0001, Fig. 3B), older (P < 0.0001, Fig. 3B), survival with tumor (P = 0.0404, Fig. 3B) and no response to treatment (P = 0.0014, Fig. 3B) compared to the low-risk group of HNSCC. These results suggested that highly malignant HNSCC were associated with high-risk scores, and our risk score system based on the ERS-related signature had tremendous potential to predict prognosis for HNSCC patients.
Table 4
The correlation of the ERS-related signature with clinical characteristics of HNSCC.
Riskscore | R | P-value |
Survival status | 0.25990694 | 3.66E-09 |
Sex | 0.009203876 | 0.837342 |
Age | 0.068091548 | 0.128378 |
T | 0.090 | 0.043778 |
N | -0.072036059 | 0.107653 |
M | 0.056610167 | 0.206342 |
Stage | -0.007970425 | 0.858895 |
Grade | 0.001420781 | 0.974719 |
Cancer_Status | 0.207 | 3.1E-06 |
Alcohol_history_documented | 0.053185789 | 0.235175 |
Ethnicity | 0.023258122 | 0.603875 |
Treatment_response | -0.119 | 0.007556 |
Lymphnode_neck_dissection | 0.086962586 | 0.052209 |
Perineural_invasion_present | 0.126 | 0.00483 |
The Ers-related Signature Is Robust For Predicting Os Of Hnscc Patients
To validate predictive ability of the ERS-related signature, we applied the signature to the GSE65858 dataset. In this set, we used the same risk score model to calculate each patient’s risk score. Then, 270 patients were divided into high- and low- risk groups using the median of the risk scores value of 3.053. K-M curves implied that higher risk score was associated with poorer prognosis in HNSCC, which was consistent with our previous findings (P = 0.0266, Fig. 4A). Moreover, the distributions of risk scores and patients’ survival status of 270 HNSCC patients showed that patients’ mortality rate was increased as the risk score elevated in HNSCC patients (Fig. 4B). AUC value of 5-year OS was 0.684, implying a medium power of the signature in OS prediction of HNSCC (Fig. 4C).
The Ers-related Signature Is An Independently Prognostic Biomarker For Hnscc Patients
In order to investigate the independence of the prognostic signature, Cox regression analysis was carried out combined clinical characteristics with our ERS-related signature in TCGA dataset. Firstly, univariate Cox regression analysis indicated that the risk score, age, N, M, stage, grade, cancer status and perineural invasion present were prognostic factors for OS of HNSCC patients (P < 0.05, Fig. 5A). Moreover, multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the ERS-related signature, cancer status and perineural invasion present were independently predictors for OS, after adjusting to other four clinical factors (P < 0.05, Fig. 5B). Taken together, above results suggest that the ERS-related signature is an independently adverse prognostic factor for OS of HNSCC patients, which relates to poor clinical outcomes.
Furthermore, stratified analyses based on these clinical characteristics were carried out to identify the suitable patient groups for prediction of the risk score system. The results showed that the risk score remained an independent prognostic factor for the subgroups of female, younger than 61, not Hispanic or Latino, T3 and T4, stage Ⅲ and Ⅳ, grade 1 and 2, tumor free and lymphnode neck dissection (P < 0.05, Fig. 5C). Moreover, the results of stratification analysis showed that high-risk patients in each stratum of those clinical parameters had significantly shorter OS than low-risk patients.
The ERS-related signature is associated with tumor immunity in HNSCC.
To illustrate the potential biological functions of the ERS-related signature in HNSCC, we conducted GSEA analysis based on the curated gene sets c5.go.bp.v7.4.symbols. We found that negative regulation of ubiquitin dependent protein catabolic process was upregulated in low-risk score groups, which validated that our signature was ERS-associated (Fig. 6A). Moreover, some immune-associated pathways that upregulated in low-risk score groups in HNSCC, such as response to interleukin 4 and B cell receptor signaling pathway, implying our ERS-associated signature might be associated with immune surveillance against cancer cells.
A large body of researches has proved that ERS usually affected many physiological processes, including immune function 15. Our results also show that the ERS-related signature is associated with immune surveillance against cancer cells in HNSCC. Therefore, to further illustrate the potential mechanism of the correlation between the ERS-related signature and immune surveillance against cancer cells, we applied CIBERSORT algorithm to TCGA dataset. Excluding samples which CIBERSORT P-value > 0.05, 410 samples from TCGA dataset were enrolled, including 201 low-risk samples and 209 high-risk samples. The analysis of immune cells infiltrations between low-risk and high-risk groups showed that the infiltrations of naive B cells, CD8+ T cells, follicular helper T cells, and plasma cells was significantly higher in low-risk groups than in high-risk groups (P < 0.05, Fig. 6B). However, macrophages and activated mast cells were remarkably enhanced in high-risk groups compared to thoes in low-risk groups (P < 0.05, Fig. 6B).
The ERS-related signature has the potential to predict immunotherapy response
Given the association between the ERS-related signature and immune surveillance against cancer cells, we investigated whether the ERS-related signature also correlated with immunotherapy response. Therefore, we firstly calculated immune check-point scores using the expression levels of immune check-point genes (the list of genes showed in Table 1) for each patient by ssGSEA algorithm and measured the association between the risk score and immune check-point score. Strikingly, we observed that the risk score was significantly negatively correlated with immune check-point score in HNSCC (P < 0.0001, R=-0.2034, Fig. 7A). The expression patterns of immune check-point genes were further compared between the high- and low- risk groups stratified by the ERS-related signature. And the results revealed that patients with high-risk scores exhibited significantly lower expression levels of immune check-point genes than those with low-risk scores exhibited (P = 0.0002, Fig. 7B).