Background The transition to an energy mix with lower carbon emissions is hampered by the existence of the so-called energy trilemma. The primary consequence is a trade-off between various objectives of energy policy, e.g., equity and sustainability. This paper proposes a framework and methodology to manage the trilemma by applying methods related to multi-criteria decision making in order to assign weights to the various components of the trilemma.
Results Following the International Energy Agency (IEA), an expanded concept of energy security is adopted and translates to a version of the trilemma different from that of the World Energy Council. This study takes into account autarky, price, supply, and carbon emissions. The values of these variables are generated by a software called PLEXOS and are incorporated in a welfare function. Trade-offs and complementarities among the four variables are taken into account by the equations in the PLEXOS model. Meanwhile, weights for each of the components of the trilemma are obtained using the Analytical Hierarchy Process. The experts interviewed for this exercise are considered hypothetical heads of the Philippine Department of Energy (DOE).
Conclusion Two scenarios were compared: a market-based simulation and one where a carbon-tax was imposed. The ranking clearly depended on the preferences of the hypothetical heads of the DOE. Policy options can, therefore, be ranked using the values generated by the welfare function. In this manner, trade-offs are measured and the trilemma can be managed even if it is not resolved.