We evaluated the frailty status assessed using the KCL and found that in community-dwelling older adults aged 65–70 years, the status of 75.5% could be categorized as robustness, 16.5% as prefrailty, and 8.0% as frailty. The age of 65–70 years has recently been regarded as the start of old age. In this age range, people usually begin to experience major life events, such as retirement, which generally has a strong effect on physical activity and behavior.12,13 Therefore, people aged 65–70 years could be an important age group for preventing transitions towards frailty, and focusing on older adults within this 5-year age range should reveal predictors for early interventions.
Regarding the previously reported prevalence of frailty among community-dwelling older adults, Choi et al. reviewed 6 national population-based surveys and reported that the prevalence of frailty defined by Fried’s criteria demonstrated significant differences among countries, ranging from 5.8–27.3%.14 In the previous systematic review, age-stratified prevalence of frailty was approximately 4% among people aged 65–69 years.15 Among the older adults in Japan, the prevalence of frailty defined by Fried’s criteria reportedly ranged from 1.5–11.6%,9,16−19 while that defined using the KCL ranged from 4–17.2%.10,16,20 On the other hand, the age-stratified prevalence of frailty defined by Fried’s criteria was reported to be 1.9%-5.4% for Japanese people aged 65–69 years,18,19 and 4.0% for those aged 65–74 years.17 Considering that the prevalence of frailty evaluated with the KCL was reported to be slightly higher than that using Fried’s criteria,16 we believe that the baseline frailty status of the current study was similar to that of previously reported cohorts. Therefore, our longitudinal data can represent the natural course of frailty status defined with the KCL in 65-70-year old adults living in Japan.
Recently, the KCL has been reported to be a predictor of long-term care risk,9 healthy life expectancy,21 and cognitive function.22 Therefore, in Japan, with its rapidly aging population, the KCL could be a useful tool to monitor and evaluate frailty status at a low cost because the survey using the KCL is performed with a self-reporting questionnaire through the mail. On the other hand, to design appropriate frailty interventions and identify optimal target populations to prevent or delay progression, it is imperative to understand the progressive course of frailty and to predict how the frailty status of older people evolves over time. However, little is known about the natural course of frailty status defined using the KCL.
In the current study, we found that the total score of the KCL significantly increased from the baseline to the 5-year follow-up and the prevalence of frailty defined using the KCL significantly increased from 8.0–12.3%. These results are comparable with previous studies, which reported that advanced age is a strong risk factor for frailty status.19,20 Regarding transitions in frailty status defined by Fried’s criteria, Kojima et al. reviewed 16 studies and reported that 13.7% of older adults improved, 29.1% worsened, and 56.5% remained unchanged over a mean of 3.9 years.24 Our study evaluated frailty status as assessed with the KCL and demonstrated that 11.6% of older adults improved, 19.6% worsened, and 68.8% maintained the same frailty status in 5 years, in which the rate of worsened transition was slightly lower than that reported in the previous meta-analysis.24 It might be due to the difference in criteria for defining frailty status, which could affect the prevalence of frailty.16 Moreover, it might also be due to the younger age of our participants (mean age 67.3 years, range 65–70 years) than that in the previous meta-analysis, in which most studies had participants with a mean age older than 70 years.24 Indeed, previous studies showed that older people’s frailty status is likely to worsen.25−27 On the other hand, it should be noted that frailty is not an irreversible status, but a reversible and dynamic status involving improvement as well as progression. Actually, in our study, 45.5% of frail elderly individuals improved their status to prefrailty or robustness. This reversibility of frailty status indicates that it is worth the effort to attempt to establish appropriate interventions for frailty. To this end, it is necessary to clarify the risk factors of a transition towards frailty, and thus, we performed comparisons of the baseline data between the older adults who experienced a transition towards frailty (Group B) and those who did not (Group A). BMI was significantly higher in Group B (mean, 24.5 kg/m2) than in Group A (mean, 22.9 kg/m2). This is in line with the results of the review article in which obesity and high waist circumference demonstrated highly convincing results for an association with frailty.28 Additionally, the physical activity score of the KCL was significantly higher in Group B (median, 1) than in Group A (median, 0), indicating that those in Group B had a significantly worsened status in the physical activity category than those in Group A. In the multivariate analysis, we demonstrated that the physical activity score of the KCL independently predicted a transition towards frailty in 5 years. A systematic review demonstrated that exercise can potentially prevent, delay or reverse frailty. 29 Moreover, Macdonald et al. performed a meta-analysis and reported that frailty can be improved, mainly through resistance-based exercise.30 Therefore, we believe that to prevent frailty, maintaining or improving physical activity should be recommended to older adults with a physical activity score of 1 or higher.
Limitations exist in the current study. First, this is a retrospective analysis of the questionnaire surveys conducted by the government; therefore, we could analyze 5-year follow-up data only in older adults aged 65–70 years due to the method of selecting participants of the postal KCL survey conducted by the government. However, we believe that it reduced heterogeneity with age, which is one of the strongest factors for frailty. Second, we had no data on medical history, physical and social activity, and lifestyle. Finally, the “optimal” exercise regimen and BMI to prevent frailty are still unclear. To address these limitations, further prospective, comprehensive studies that include older adults aged over 70 years is necessary for future research.
In conclusion, to our knowledge, this study is the first to evaluate frailty status and its longitudinal transitions using the KCL, which is a promising tool to easily and cost-effectively evaluate frailty status. We demonstrated that 8.0% of community-dwelling older adults aged 65–70 years were frail. Regarding transitions in frailty status, 11.6% of older adults improved, 19.6% worsened, and 68.8% maintained their status over the course of 5 years. The 5-year incidence of frailty status was 8.7%. To prevent a transition towards frailty, maintaining optimal levels of physical activity and normal body weight should be recommended.