After the analysis of the environmental factors involved in the pathology of CKD in Costa Rica, a scenario of exposure to toxins in the population was determined and is expressed in Figure 1. This figure highlights the pathways in which the sources of environmental toxicants in this region can lead to CKD. The Figure 1 was developed after obtaining results from multivariate regression statistical analysis. It was determined that for the specific area of the country that has the highest rates of the CKD, this population is exposed to geogenic sources of nephrotoxins. Mesoamerica belongs to an area of high volcanic influence in the world called the Pacific Ring of Fire (Figure 1 of the Supplementary Text). In Costa Rica, the population that has the highest incidence of CKD is the county called Can˜as, which is an area surrounded by volcanoes (5 active volcanoes, and 3 inactive), in addition is the area with the most wind-intense area to the country (Figure 2 of the Supplementary Text). The subsequent internal behavior of toxins in people was addressed in the theoretical approach of discussed below.
2.1 Correlation and regression analysis between environmental variables
This study was carried out between 2014 and 2022, and it utilizes data from state institutions. These data were used in statistical correlation and regression analysis and to create visual aids of statistical results, such as maps. Quantifi- cation of elements and metals in the soil was carried out in the Environmental Soil Chemistry laboratory at Texas Tech University. While the Statistical Unit of the CCSS (Costa Rican Social Security) did not maintain a (CKD) registry, the number of cases was estimated via annual hospital discharges of patients associated with CKD retrospectively by county between 2007 and 2014. The average rate of CKD between those years was used as a dependent variable and was calculated per 100,000 inhabitants. For the county population during that time period, the national census data from the INEC (National Institute of Statistics and Census) was used.
To evaluate the correlation between one or more explanatory variables, a Pearson Correlation test was carried out using the Minitab software. The test was carried using the following variables: (1) maximum average temper- ature, (2) altitude, (3) average relative humidity, (4) rate of planted acreage (hectares) of sugarcane, and (5) rate of burned hectares of sugarcane. The resulting values with respect to the rate of CKD are shown in Table 1. A correlation and regression analysis of the data for the environmental factors is presented in the Supplementary Text 4, in which the relationship of the variables is expressed under equation 1.
Table 1 Pearson Correlation test values using Minitab 18 with respect to the rate of CKD. All variables had a p-value of <0.05.
2.2 Analysis of environmental factors: disease rates
CKD presents marked geographic differences not only in Costa Rica but in other countries as well. One of the problems faced during this research was the lack of statistical data concerning the incidence and prevalence of CKD at a national level, and one of the most important statistical databases compiled was from the Ministry of Health for the cumulative mortality incidence rate for 2000-2016, which is expressed in Figure 2A. The county with the highest mortality rate is indicated with the darkest color, corresponding to the county of Can˜as. Figure 2B shows the location of the sugar cane crops according to the National Agriculture League of Sugar Cane, and Guanacaste province contains 45% of the country’s sugar cane production. It should also be noted that 55% of the sugarcane crops in the rest of the country are not related in any way to CKD. Figures 2C and 2D show the distribution of the districts in the county of Can˜as and the relationship between the percent of patients affected in Can˜as at different altitudes, respectively. Data concerning patients was provided by the CAIS for 2018, and the rates of CKD are compiled in Table 2.
Table 2 Rates of CKD distributed among districts of county Can˜as with respect to altitude.
According to Figure 2D, and specifically the county of Can˜as, the statistical correlation between altitude and affected populations corresponds to an R2 value of 0.52. If Porozal, which has a 0.27% affected population and is located at 35 masl, is removed from the correlation, the R2 value increases to 0.96. This implies that Porozal has conditions that make the population less vulnerable to CKD, such as its proximity to the Gulf of Nicoya or the Gulf of Colorado, as determined visually, the predominant soil in this area is a clayey soil. The data in Figure 2D indicate that there is a significant correlation between masl and CKD.
2.3 Agriculture
Figure 3 shows the relationship that sugarcane crops have with the areas with the highest incidence of CKD, especially the hectares of sugarcane that are burned during harvest. The statistical model indicated that sugarcane pro- duction and burning of sugarcane were the most important environmental variables related to CKD that for this model was run, but noticing that vari- ables are missing to be included in that model. The number of farms dedicated exclusively to agriculture in the country is shown in Figure 3, where in Can˜as, there are 50 – 300 parcels dedicated to sugarcane harvest. In Figure 3A, the number of hectares of sugarcane cultivation are shown, indicating that sug- arcane is a major crop in this area and throughout the country. Figure 3B shows the number of hectares of sugarcane that are burned in the country for every 10,000 hectares of land. These values are according to data issued by the MAG (Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock). The Figure 3 of the Sup- plementary Text shows variation in the rate of CKD due to variation in the rate of hectares burned and temperature.
2.4 Temperature
The Figure 4-A of the Supplementary Text shows the distribution of the max- imum annual average temperature by counties in Costa Rica according to Digital Atlas of Costa Rica. The Figure 4- B of the Supplementary Text shows relationship between the maximum annual average temperatures for the year 2020 in the meteorological stations (IMN - National Meteorological Institute) of the county of Can˜as and the height (masl) in the location stations. The Figure 5 of the Supplementary Text shows the temperature variation in degrees Celsius from 2003 to 2017 in the province of Guanacaste cause by the effects of El Nin˜o and La Nin˜a, this information is adapted from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA 2018) and IMN. In Supplementary Text 5 other issues about environmental temperature are considered.
2.5 Altitude
Altitude represents one of the most important factors that determines the growth of sugarcane in agricultural regions, where growth is better at lower altitudes. Additionally, it is one of the factors related to CKD in the world (Crowe et al. 2019). Contour lines were made on a map of the Can˜as district with altitudes of 0 (masl) in the lowest parts of the Bebedero district (the district with the highest number of CKD cases in the country) to a maximum height of 2020 masl in the mountainous part, which is all presented in Figure 6 of the Supplementary Text, there is almost a direct relationship between the elevation of a district and the percentage of cases reported by CAIS.
2.6 Topography of the mountainous region
The location of the mountains according to the population is of critical impor- tance because this relationship affects the dispersion of particles by wind action. In the case of Can˜as, its location is in the middle of a pass between mountains and their slopes. In addition to this, the Can˜as and Bebedero dis- tricts are located in very low areas, less than 30 masl, between the volcanic mountain range of Guanacaste and the mountain range of Tilaran (Figure 2 of the Supplementary Text). This area is immediately below an important wind corridor in the country, mainly for Guanacaste province. In addition to specific considerations of topography, an analysis of the impact that environ- mental temperature, precipitation, and wind models of the research area have on CKD are considered in the Supplementary Text 4 and 5.
2.7 Analysis of heavy metals in the soil
Two soil sampling sets were carried out to complete the exposure scenario for the high rate of CKD in the population of Guanacaste province. Can˜as is the largest district with respect to the number of CKD cases, and Bebedero is the district with the highest proportion of patients with the disease. Thus, soil samples were collected from Bebedero, and another set was collected from the control area of El Guarco from the province of Cartago. Both places are influenced by volcanic activity, this geographical situation is shown in the Figure 7 of the Supplementary Text. In the case of county of Can˜as, there are five active volcanos, including Orosi, Miravalles, Tenorio, Rinc´on de la Vieja, and Arenal. For Cartago, the volcanos include Irazu´ and Turrialba. In total, 30 samples were taken from the Can˜as district and 15 samples from El Guarco district in Cartago. Results of the quantification of metals in soils are presented in Figure 4 of this article and Figure 8 of the Supplementary Text.
In order to evaluate the amounts of metals found in the soils of Can˜as, relate them to the exposure scenario, and compare them to important international regulatory limits for heavy metals in soils, Table 3 is presented. Table 3 also includes values from the 2019 Geochemical Atlas of Costa Rica, a comparison of the European regulation of heavy metals (Toth et al. 2016) and a comparison to US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) regulation values given by (He et al. 2015). According to T´oeth (T´oeth et al. 2016), in European countries there are different approaches to define the risk levels associated with heavy metal and metalloid concentrations in soils. The values in Table 3 correspond to those of the Ministry of the Environment of Finland, and the guideline values for soils in Europe are considered to be a risk for producing negative effects on plants and animals.
A determination of X-ray diffraction (XRD) patters for silica in the soil of sugar cane crop area was also carried out in order to determine if the difference between amorphous silica and crystalline silica was evident, this result is shown in Figure 9 of the Supplementary Text, a XRD spectra from samples from the sugar mill and Bebedero are shown. In both areas, silica has a crystalline pattern. Crystalline silica represents increased health risk than amorphous silica as a carcinogen and an immunogen (IARC 2020). Due to this finding, the risk scenario for the population in Bebedero is more relevant. The sample was taken from a sugar mill area and collected one week after sugar cane was burned. As can be seen in Table 3, the silica content of the soil in this area is very high, which is why this site is relevant to the positive exposure scenario of CKD in the local population.
Figure 10 of the Supplementary Text shows the values of the heavy metal concentrations in one of the soil cuts from Cerro Pelado in the mountain range of Tilaran. This region influences the wind patterns in Can˜as, and this was the place that had the highest concentration of heavy metals from the sam- ple areas in Guanacaste. This location and these values are important because they are relevant to the amount of metals that can be accidentally or inciden- tally ingested by populations affected by CKD in a process called involuntary geophagy or dust inhalation.
The hair stores metals that the normal human metabolism cannot elimi- nate, this is recognized as an environmental chronic marker of contact toxic metals in people. Three hair samples from people living in two areas with the highest number of cases of the disease were provided to the research group for preliminary analysis, (informed consents were filled out), however, only one of them was processed because the patients chronically consumed a large amounts of medications, which alters the result of this test. The sample was sent to the Wisconsin State Laboratory of Hygiene, Environmental Health Division
Table 3 Comparison of values of heavy metals, metalloids, and metals with toxicological significance in soils.
of the University of Wisconsin-Madison; requesting an analysis of the follow- ing metals to be carried out on the samples: Al, As, Cd, Pb, Hg, U, Ni, Sb, Ti, Cu, Zn, Cr, V, Sr, Rb and Co, using the SF-ICP-MS (Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry), with oven digestion.
More information and results regarding hair analysis are shown in the 1.7 Supplementary Text 7: ”Analysis of heavy metals in hair as markers of chronic exposure in environmental toxicity and its effect of low doses”.
2.8 Wind effect
Monthly variation in a typical year (2018) of precipitation with respect to wind speed was measured and it show by Figure 11 of the Supplementary Text. The precipitation was measured at the La Pacifica meteorological station, Can˜as; wind speed was measured at the Mojica Station in Can˜as, Guanacaste about IMN data.
With respect to effect of wind on the area with the highest disease rate - Can˜as-, these winds reach high speeds in the area where the greatest number of cases of the disease occur. In addition, the wind, sugarcane burning during harvest occurs at the same time of the year. The wind and sugarcane burning were variables determined from the beginning of the model to be of significant importance. They gave the highest percentage rate of CKD in the country.
According to the geographical location of the study area and the effect of the wind on Can˜as, there are two wind-related components: one that crosses the mountain range between the Guanacaste range and the Tilaran range, whose effect is shown in Figure 12 of the Supplementary Text, and another horizontal component from the reanalysis model of North America Regional Reanalysis (NAAR), shown in Figure 13 of the Supplementary Text, both wind events occur in the same time period.