To increase the resilience of agroecosystems, and allow for sustainable economic reactivation, it is vital that the introduction of sustainable measures - particularly in agriculture – is advanced via an integrated management approach such as the Resource Nexus. An essential aspect of this approach is to optimise the efficiency of ecosystems and resources in conjunction with environmentally friendly economic growth. Colombia has experienced the impact of armed conflict over many years, while geographic regions have been shaped by environmental conflicts; resulting in vulnerable areas suffering from land and population inequalities that also translate into wicked planning for resilient food systems. This paper addresses a double challenge: the improvement of natural resources management and reducing the population's vulnerability in line with the principles of inclusion and gender equity. The paper developed a methodology to identify those productive regions that require improved management at the landscape level, which could benefit under the main framework of the water-energy-food Nexus. It also provides evidence of the value of the science-policy interface to ensure increased social equity, economic growth, and the conservation of resources. A geographic information system approach has been utilised to spatially evaluate the effects of land-use change, ecosystem services provision, and the impacts of climate change at the municipality scale of productive agricultural regions. The objectives of this research were to: (i) evaluate the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on natural resources, (ii) assess productive landscape fragmentation due to the overuse of resources, and (iii) consider ecosystem services planning as an operational methodology for municipality ecosystem-based management. The study results show a decrease in the natural Andean Forest, coupled with an increase in agricultural fields over the past 35 years, and a decrease in freshwater availability in the last decade. The expansion trend of the agricultural frontier into the protected areas is also highlighted.
Research Article
Vulnerability reduction in post-conflict areas through a Nexus approach to sustainable food production systems: a case study in Colombia
https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2183999/v2
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License
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Climate change
ecosystem services
post-conflict
productive landscape management
Nexus.
The rural regions of Colombia have suffered through more than 50 years of war-related atrocities, with nine million people classified as 'direct' victims, 7.5 million of whom being forcibly displaced. Between 2014 and 2016, mediation processes between the government and the rebel group "Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia" (FARC) has resulted at the end of the last armed conflict with the country's biggest illegal group (Navarrete et al. 2020), however, the nature of this conflict is deeply rooted in the social problems left behind by destabilised social and geosocial structures, and a subsequent "expansion of the agricultural border" over the last five years at the expense of the country's protected natural regions. Indeed, these post-conflict areas are the sites of Colombia's most significant losses of native forests (Nationally Determined Contributions [NDC 2020]), while drastic changes in land use caused by deforestation and unsustainable farming activities have translated into significant CO2 emissions; 51% of national greenhouse gasses (GHG) belong to agriculture (IDEAM-PNUD 2016; González et al. 2021). Consequently, the analysis and mitigation of such areas is currently a top priority of the Colombian government.
An additional and extremely pertinent concern for Colombia is the country's economic recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, with negative economic growth of -15% and -9% in the second and third trimesters of 2020 (NDC 2020) being reported in the National Plan Update. The national government intends to reduce inequalities by supporting family farms via financial contributions to projects that encourage economic reactivation through the recovery of ecosystems, and the investments of farming families in agriculture systems. This reactive strategy was announced at the Summit 2030 (October 2021), and on the National Climate Change Action Plan (PNACC 2020), as the crisis has further accentuated the negative impact of climate change (CC)-related environmental problems pertaining to agricultural systems.
Despite these plans, disputes over land ownership have persisted due to the intense forced displacement experienced years ago as a consequence of the armed conflict (Negret 2017). The achievement of land restitution and the reintegration of farm workers in rural areas requires a multidisciplinary approach and the appropriate instruments to ensure economic reactivation and sustainable development planning (Suarez et al. 2018). The successful implementation of these measures remains scattered, however, as the development of efficient and inclusive agri-food systems requires a comprehensive approach to include both economic and environmental sustainability perspectives. To that end, these projects must be linked to socioeconomic and environmental planning, for which the administration of natural resources in post-conflict areas can be correctly formulated (Negret et al. 2017).
At the technical level, the application of the Resource Nexus approach is much-needed; 60% of global ecosystem services (ES) are either reduced or used unsustainably. Moreover, Climate Change and Land use/cover (LULC) change are significant drivers of degradation for Ecosystem services (ES), and their impacts at the landscape scale should be mitigated (Gong et al. 2021). ES degradation is projected to have worsened significantly by 2040 (MA 2005), while an expanding agricultural sector transforms ecosystems as the demand for supply keeps growing - causing regional erosion and water scarcity (Montgomery 2007; Hettiarachchi 2017). In Colombia, 70% of fresh water is used for agricultural purposes (Hettiarachchi 2017), with the resulting LULC change contributing to the annual decrease of 80.000 to 120.000 ha, and fostering transitional vegetation at the expense of endemic species (Toro and Roldan 2018).
Ecosystem services are essential for sustainable land-use planning and ecosystem management (Daily et al. 2009; Wang et al. 2017), however, despite considerable evidence of this phenomena, gaps in LULC change at the landscape scale are yet to be addressed (Goldstein et al. 2012; Lawler et al. 2014; Wang et al. 2017), especially in the context of post-conflict and peacebuilding. Several authors agree upon one of the main reasons for this lack of data and research in these areas being the difficulties in accessing the region due to security conditions (Navarrete 2020). Indeed, these security issues pose many barriers to the proper assessment of ES on a high-resolution scale, as there are no reliable data and monitoring assets in such areas. Most accessible knowledge relies instead on global data (Naidoo et al. 2008) and fails to address ES at the local level, regardless of its value to those regional decision-makers that have the mandate to further downscale the implementation of the 2030 Agenda.
Sustainable agricultural development must be supported without excluding Colombia, and socioeconomic and environmental conditions must be addressed (Malago et al. 2021; Bustamante, 2019). This is especially true for territories in economic reactivation - such as post-conflict zones – which require the wise allocation of natural resources (Negret 2017). As part of the strategies to increase the resilience of agroecosystems, and to allow for sustainable economic reactivation, the introduction of sustainable measures planned through an integrated approach must be advanced; an approach that considers the synergies and trade-offs of such solutions. The WEF-E Nexus outlines the interaction of the water, energy, and food systems and describes their interdependence and potential to impact ecosystems (Markantonies et al. 2019; Malago et al. 2021). The interrelationships among Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEF-E Nexus) involve four critical components to achieving human development, extreme poverty reduction, and sustainable socioeconomic activation (Malago et al. 2021).
In Colombia, agriculture is one of the most important sources of employment and household income (CODER 2014). In Planadas-Tolima, for instance, which has 25,000 inhabitants, 75% of farms and food production systems are less than 10 ha (Navarrete et al. 2020). Most of these families live in unfavourable conditions, despite their importance to food security for the municipality and beyond. Indeed, the management of natural resources by this single rural population impacts the well-being of the entire region. Hence, environmental data assessment can be used to analyse the state of natural resource management at the landscape level and facilitate the interface with decision-making processes in accordance with the necessities of a region.
The hypothesis posed in this case is one that recognises the progressive degradation of natural resources as a result of human activity and/or climate change, and the need for resource management to be sustainably improved. Based on this hypothesis, our research questions are "Have the small-scale agriculture actors been impacted in habitats and ESs in Colombia during post-conflict?” and "Have the agricultural frontier expanded due to environmental conflicts and lack of natural resource management?" In this paper, the productive areas requiring improved management at the landscape level under the main framework of the Resource Nexus approach were identified for the purpose of supporting the government in aligning national policy on productive landscapes with appropriate management strategies at the family farm level. It will contribute to the downscaling efforts for the application of the NDC measures toward eradicating hunger and consolidating sustainable and inclusive food production.
The landscape scale was used to assess human well-being, risk prevention, landscape fragmentation, and food security in the context of post-conflict in the Department of Tolima, Colombia. The Resource Nexus approach is discussed in conjunction with evaluating the trade-offs and synergies for freshwater provisioning and land extension for food production. Energy as a resource is addressed as an interconnected component between freshwater provisioning for hydropower in the basin of the Rio Saldaña, and the ongoing agricultural practices in the Tolima Department, i.e., whether or not to use organic-inorganic fertilisers and irrigation.
Based on the results, the research could (i) Evaluate the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on natural resources, (ii) Assess productive landscape fragmentation due to overuse of resources, and (iii) Promote ecosystem services assessment as an operational methodology for municipality ecosystem-based management and policy implementation.
2.1 Study area
The study area encompasses the municipality of Planadas, in the Department of Tolima, Colombia. The municipality of Planadas is 20 km away from the National Natural Park, "Nevado del Huila" (PNNNH), which was declared by UNESCO to be a Biosphere Reserve. The study area was selected because Planadas is a region currently adapting to a post-conflict period (Navarrete et al. 2020) and belongs to one of the regions that the government delegated a recipient of greater support through special socioeconomic and environmental projects to improve governance. Additionally, Planadas shares political borders with the National Natural Park (PNNNH); thus, conservation strategies and agricultural practices must co-exist. Ongoing conflicts may potentially stem from the recent expansion of agricultural land units (mainly coffee, avocado, and sugar cane) and relevant biologic corridors for biodiversity conservation in the regional context.
Planadas develops at an altitude of between 1200 and 2800 m.a.s.l and hosts several springs and water bodies responsible for water provision to millions of people and agricultural fields in the country's centre. The region's water converges in Colombia's largest river (the Magdalena River), and endemic vegetations include the High Andean Natural Forests, Andean Forests and Sub–Andean Forests within the Super Paramo and paramo (Moorland's ecosystems), Agroecosystems, Forest, Fragmented Forest, and transitional Andean vegetation ecosystems (IDEAM 2007).
2.2 Methods
For this approach, homogeneous analysis units were generated according to climatological, physiographic, technological, land use and producer-type criteria based on the system dynamics methodology (Redondo et al. 2019), characterised by spatial estimates, creating quantitative values for each area in Planadas (2.2.1 section). Once the landscape units were generated, a prioritisation process was carried out to analyse the characteristics of the landscapes of most significant interest according to their representativeness in the area. From this group, areas were selected that overlap with areas of importance for the conservation of biodiversity in terms of natural resource management, resource use and the restoration and preservation of nature, then the areas that intersect with areas under threat of deforestation and the expansion of the agricultural frontier were filtered out (2.2.2 section). A land use/land cover (LULC) mapping was carried out between 1985 and 2020 to determine the changes in the study area's LULC. The ecosystem services evaluation is further processed with an evaluation matrix for the prioritised areas, which are explained in the following sections (2.2.3 section). From the areas identified as priorities for our analysis, a valuation of the potential supply of ecosystem services of food provision, erosion control, and water supply was generated (2.2.4 section). For conducting a landscape analysis using the Nexus of resources and sustainability of landscapes assessment, the research developed by the Humboldt Institute Colombia (Bustamante et al. 2019) and the Landscape sustainability analysis (Redondo et al. 2019) were taken as a reference framework.
2.2.1 Landscape Units: definition
For the study of landscape sustainability, homogeneous units were generated (Landscape Units) based on climatological, technological, geographic, land use, and producer type factor criteria (Table 1), as recommended by Bustamante et al. (2019). Maps for individual criteria were prepared in ArcGIS. Layers were intersected to generate the landscape units. Individual landscape units were assigned with a unique number. Table 1 shows the criteria used to define the landscape units and their sources.
Table 1. Criteria for Landscape Units definition with their sources
|
Criterion |
Characteristic |
Source |
|
Climate |
Geographical distribution of climate types Caldas-Lang index |
Caldas-Lang Climate Classification (IDEAM 2019) |
|
Physiography |
Relief type Edaphogenetic environment |
Map of Continental Marine and Coastal Ecosystems of Colombia (IDEAM 2019) |
|
Land cover |
Coverage arrangements in rural property units with natural and agricultural uses |
IDEAM 2019, USGS Landsat series Landsat5-8 (supervised classification) |
|
Type of agricultural producer |
The size of the Family Farming Unit in the municipalities of Tolima is from 10 to 14 hectares |
Igac-Geodesia (2019), available at https://www.igac.gov.co/ |
2.2.2 Prioritisation of areas based on Landscape Units
After defining the landscape units, a prioritisation process was undertaken to select the most vulnerable landscape according to a set of criteria shown in Table 2. The basis of the prioritisation process is that of geodata and typology determined by merging and intersecting information to homogenise information into regions.
The criterion for selection was defined as follows: 1) the landscape units should have agricultural land cover only or with natural cover 2) landscape units were filtered to include the units that fall within areas of conservation priorities 3) units that intersect with water resources within a distance of 300 m 4) Areas that qualified for family agriculture units; 'Family Agricultural Units' (UAF) as landscape units due to the high vulnerability that small producers have to face climate change, and as intersect areas under conservation. The process was developed based on Landsat 5 and 8 images obtained from an official website of the United States government (USGS), which is open source. Lastly, the areas threatened by deforestation were extracted from the remaining units for further analysis.
Table 2. Prioritise areas criteria to select study areas
|
Criteria |
Definition |
Source |
|
Representativeness of the area |
The landscape units with the most significant area with agricultural-type cover arrangements only or with a natural cover were selected. The smallest units prioritised have areas between 6-7 hectares. |
https://geoportal.igac.gov.co/contenido/datos-abiertos |
|
conservation priorities |
Landscapes that intersect with areas of conservation priorities were filtered out to ● Natural Resource Management ● Resource utilisation in semi-natural areas |
https://geoportal.igac.gov.co/contenido/datos-abiertos http://www.ideam.gov.co/capas-geo |
|
Water resources |
Areas intersected with streams or are inside a buffer of 300 m. |
http://www.ideam.gov.co/capas-geo |
|
Family agriculture unit |
Regions with farms of a maximum of 10 ha. As recommended by FAO to support small producers. The Colombian government established the size of Family agriculture units (UAF) (1-14 ha). |
https://geoportal.igac.gov.co/contenido/datos-abiertos-agrologia |
|
Threats of deforestation |
The units that present deforestation threats and the agricultural frontier expansion were selected according to the national territorial plan, the information on natural parks and legally protected areas. |
https://geoportal.igac.gov.co/contenido/datos-abiertos |
2.2.3 Land use/ land cover Change of the Prioritised Areas
A Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) change was observed over 35 years between 1985 and 2020 to study the development of productive landscapes. LULC were mapped using Landsat 5 and 8 Thematic data for 1985 and 2020, respectively, through GIS methodology. The analysed images were rectified with WGS84 projection, based on 1:100.000 topographic maps.
The classification system was chosen for its potential to accurately identify the LULC types from the available imagery and additional interpretation resources. The categories included were (1) Natural Andean Forest, (2) Sub-Andean Forest-secondary vegetation, (3) agricultural fields and grass fields settled for cattle (these fields are classified as food production lands), and (4) bared soil. The map set was transformed into a vector format to interpret and analyse ecosystem services, landscape fragmentation, and deforestation trends. To check the quality of the classification, the Continental Ecosystem Map was developed by IDEAM, IGAC, IAvH, Invemar, Institute Sinchi. (2007), and CORINE landcover maps, provided by IDEAM on the national scale, were used as reference maps.
2.2.4 Ecosystem Services Assessment
An evaluation of 3 ES (freshwater provisioning, food provisioning, and soil erosion protection) on the 1985 and 2020 maps was performed to evaluate the impact of climate change on natural resources and resource management in productive landscapes. The evaluation matrix developed by Burkhard et al. (2009) was used to estimate land cover types and capabilities to provide the chosen ecosystem services.
Each of the ecosystem services were rated on a scale indicating: 0 = no significant capacity, 1 = low significant capacity, 2 = significant capacity, 3 = medium significant capacity, 4 = high significant capacity and 5 = very high significant capacity (Figure 1).
2.2.4.1 Freshwater provisioning
The Total Surface Water Supply is the volume of water per amount of time that runs off the surface and does not infiltrate or evaporate (IDEAM 2015). It is also an element of the water utilised by ecosystems and consumers to maintain their vital and economic interests (Falkenmark and Rockström 2004). Water amount can be expressed in different ways, such as volume (m3), runoff (mm), and yield, which is the volume of water produced by a basin in a time interval and a specific area (l/seg/km²) (IDEAM 2019); its rate provides a good signal of the quantity of surface runoff that occurs in a region per unit area. For this research, data on freshwater provisioning was obtained from IDEAM geoportal available in l/seg/km² units (IDEAM 2016).
The water balance equation used by IDEAM is as follows:
Where P = Annual multiannual precipitation (mm), Tmin -Tmax -Tmean = Minimum, maximum and mean temperature (C°), Ro= Extraterrestrial radiation expressed in evaporation equivalent (mm), PET Hargreaves multiannual annual potential evapotranspiration (mm), AET = Budyko's annual multiannual Real Potential Evapotranspiration (mm) (IDEAM 2019).
Maps from IDEAM were used to classify the areas according to their water production. The regions were rated on a scale from 1 (with very low significant capacity), and 5 (with very high significant capacity), to identify the ES provision capacity based upon the "Matrix for land cover capabilities".
2.2.4.2 Food Provisioning
To analyse the ES of Food Provision, the supervised classification method was used on LULC via a combination of bands and the sets of CORINE maps offered by IDEAM, as specified in the LULC sections. It allowed for the identification of crop expansion in the study area, and lands used for husbandry and their change over time.
The matrix for land cover capabilities was used to rate each LULC on its capacity to provide food. The land-cover Andean Forest received a 0 value, while food production fields were rated 5.
2.2.4.3 Soil Erosion Protection Capacity
The capacity for soil erosion protection of each landscape unit in the study area was determined following Burkhard et al. (2009). Depending on the type of LULC, the index value was assigned on a scale of 1 to 5, with the highest rating being natural areas or forests (5) and the lowest rating for bared soils and leisure grounds. The matrix is shown in Figure 1.
3.1 Landscape Units
One hundred and twenty landscape units with 36 different types were obtained throughout the municipality of Planadas (Figure 1 supplementary information). LUs represent areas with information pertaining to agricultural uses, natural-cover, climatic zones, and certain reliefs. The climate in the region ranges from Extremely- Cold, Super-humid, and Cold humid, to Temperate Humid and Temperate Semi-Humid - as seen in areas with reliefs of Hills or Valleys, "Filas y Vigas" (a specific type of relief that corresponds to metamorphic, volcano-sedimentary rocks upon which irregularly distributed layers of volcanic ash have been deposited), Andean Summits, and Glacial. Agriculture has mainly manual processes with low levels or absent mechanisation. Farming applies in these areas to the family farming unit (UAF)(Max. 14 ha) (Table3).
The areas with the most significant extensions in Planadas (26,000 ha) show a Very Cold Humid climate, with Paramo ecosystems on relief of "Filas-Vigas". Most of this land belongs to the National Natural Park Nevado del Huila. The second-largest agricultural area (19,851 ha) are those areas with Temperate Humid, Agroecosystems, and relief of "Filas-Vigas," and located in the valley of the river Saldana (1100 to 1300 m.a.s.l.) on the north-east of the municipality - where coffee and avocados are mainly cultivated. With a mean extension of 15,617 ha, the third largest agroecosystem region is "Filas-Vigas", with a strong presence of reliefs defining the natural borders (Andean Forests) for agricultural activities. Here the climate is Cold Humid, and the main crops cultivated are coffee and beans. The minor cultivated areas (78 ha) are those in Very Cold climates; "Shrubs" as ecosystems on relief of Valleys. Likewise, areas with a Cold Humid climate are agroecosystems on relief, "Glacis," with a maximum 45 ha extension that are limited in size and number. Regions at the highest Colombian altitudes (more than 2,000 m.a.s.l) have an agricultural system similar to the paramos (moorlands ecosystems).
3.2 Prioritisation of areas
Ninety-nine prioritised landscape units were obtained from Planadas-Tolima following a process of overlaying geo-climatic layers with public data (Figure 2 supplementary information), representing 40.6% of the municipality surface of Planadas. The areas identified as priority regions have a size of 58,718 ha of 11 different types (Table 3). Prioritised areas are coded as (LU): homogenised regions for climates, ecosystems, land use - land cover, and with the presence of water sources, or within a buffer distance of 300 meters from the closest stream. The areas are near nationally-protected areas to prevent deforestation and threats to endemic Colombian fauna.
Table 3. Landscape units with the prioritised areas. The shaded rows draw the LU that composes the typology of priority areas. The column LU corresponds to the Landscape Units obtained in the first step.
|
Climate |
Ecosystem |
Relief |
LU |
|
Cold Humid |
Agroecosystem |
“Filas y vigas“ |
0 |
|
Temperate Semi-humid |
Andean Forest |
Hills |
1 |
|
Temperate Humid |
Agroecosystem |
Hills |
2 |
|
Temperate Semi-humid |
Agroecosystem |
Hills |
2 |
|
Temperate Semi-humid |
Artificialized territory |
Hills |
3 |
|
Temperate Semi-humid |
Secondary Vegetation |
Hills |
4 |
|
Cold Humid |
Agroecosystem |
Glacis |
5 |
|
Temperate Semi-humid |
Secondary Vegetation |
“Filas y vigas” |
6 |
|
Temperate Semi-humid |
Andean Forest |
“Filas y vigas” |
7 |
|
Temperate Semi-humid |
Agroecosystem |
“Filas y vigas” |
8 |
|
Temperate Humid |
Secondary Vegetation |
“Filas y vigas” |
9 |
|
Temperate Humid |
Andean Forest |
“Filas y vigas” |
10 |
|
Temperate Humid |
Agroecosystem |
“Filas y vigas” |
11 |
|
Super Cold Humid |
Andean Forest |
“Filas y vigas” |
14 |
|
Super Cold Humid |
Shrub |
“Filas y vigas” |
15 |
|
Cold Semi-humid |
Secondary Vegetation |
“Filas y vigas” |
16 |
|
Cold Semi-humid |
Fragmented Forest |
“Filas y vigas” |
17 |
|
Cold semi-humid |
Agroecosystem |
Hills |
18 |
|
Cold Semi-humid |
Shrub |
“Filas y vigas” |
19 |
|
Cold Semi-humid |
Agroecosystem |
“Filas y vigas” |
20 |
|
Cold Humid |
Secondary Vegetation |
“Filas y vigas” |
21 |
|
Cold Humid |
Fragmented Forest |
“Filas y vigas” |
22 |
|
Cold Humid |
Andean Forest |
“Filas y vigas” |
23 |
|
Cold Humid |
Shrub |
“Filas y vigas” |
24 |
|
Cold Humid |
Agroecosystem |
“Filas y vigas” |
25 |
|
Super-humid Snow |
Glaciers and Snow |
Andean Summits |
26 |
|
Cold Humid |
Agroecosystem |
Valley |
31 |
|
Cold Humid |
Andean Forest |
Valley |
32 |
|
Super Cold Humid |
Shrub |
Valley |
33 |
|
Temperate Semi-humid |
Transitional transformed |
Valley |
35 |
3.3 Climate Change
The Climate Caldas Lang index (figure 3 supplementary information) was used to identify those regions that have experienced a change in climate over the years. The most substantial change can be identified in the west zone of Planadas, Tolima, with the disappearance of the "Extremely Cold Super Humid" climate, and a shift into the "Very Cold Super Humid" climate. Additional significant changes in climate can be observed in the north-eastern region of Planadas, shifting from "Warm Humid" to "Warm Semi-humid," and an expansion of "Very Cold Humid" in areas which were were previously "Very Cold Super-humid".
3.4 LULC change
The analysis of LULC change revealed areas of significantly expanded agriculture frontiers and reduced the natural borders; this was especially prevalent between 1985 and 2020 (Figure 2). The most considerable LULC changes were found in the western area of Planadas at the border with the National Natural Park "Nevado del Huila" (PNNNH). Interestingly, the areas that showed the most significant LULC change were identified as protected areas for biodiversity conservation by the Colombian government. Indeed, in 1985, 64% (3714 ha.) of LULC in the study areas corresponded to Natural Andean Forest, 24% (1692 ha.) to Sub-Andean Forest, and 29% (1692 ha.) to food production fields. In 2020, the Natural Andean Forest decreased to 29% (1697 ha) of the total area; instead, the Sub- Andean Forest and secondary vegetation have increased by 51% (2692 ha.), together with the agricultural fields accounting for 40% (2342 ha) of the region in question.
3.5 ES Assessment of productive landscapes
3.5.1 Freshwater provisioning
Freshwater provisioning ES has seen a decrease over time, and in the last decade – particularly in prioritised areas established in this research (Figure 3). The area with the highest source of water (30-40 l/seg/km²) in 2010 was in the Northwest region (Purple area in Figure 3), producing a flow of 20-30 l/seg/km² of freshwater, while the eastern regions has only 15-20 l/seg/km², with the exception of a small region that produces 10-15 l/seg/km² of water. Freshwater provisioning decreased drastically in 2017. All the abovementioned areas displayed only 15-20 l/seg/km² of water. Based on the findings, the ES of freshwater provision was quantified and ranked.
3.5.2 Food Provisioning
Figure 4 describes the percentage of each LULC in 1985 and 2020 for food provisioning. The Andean Forest shrunk from 54.3% in 1985 to only 24.8% in 2020, while the area of the Subandean forest increased from 20.8% to 35.6% between 1985 and 2020. This increase in the Subandean forest area can be attributed to the expansion of the croplands due to human activities such as tree-felling and arboriculture. Croplands and pasture significantly increased from 24% to 39% of the total area between 1985 and 2020.
In (Figure 4a supplementary information), a food provisioning map shows ES's classification according to the ES ranking matrix. In the study area, high ES provisioning was found for croplands and pasture areas, defined as low for the Subandean forest and very low for the Andean Forest area. Figure 4b also shows the expansion of the agricultural border for food production in the direction of those protected areas as classified by the National Government for Biodiversity Conservation (areas within the red circles). Indeed, most agricultural border expansions occurred in the west Tolima Region area, close to the National Natural Park Nevado del Huila (PNNNH) (Figure 4a supplementary information).
3.5.3 Soil Erosion Regulation Capacity
Soil erosion was determined to have increased significantly due to land cover change (Figure 4c supplementary information). The extent of soil erosion qualifies for the regulation capacity of land that is a function of land cover. The areas with very low capacity are mapped as bare soils - of which, about 90 ha are on high slopes (more than 70% of inclination). These areas are an emerging risk, and cause for the increased vulnerability of the population living in these areas. As in Figure 4c, increased soil erosion is directly linked to the expansion of agricultural fields.
The development of a multi-scale assessment for productive landscapes based on the typologies and the classification of areas in terms of environmental and social priorities, has proven useful in orienting our research according to the socioeconomic matters of a rural community. An instance of the benefits of this assessment was in the identification of those smallholder farmers greatly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in post-conflict areas (of whom, according to our results, 80% of farms in the study area are at the family level) as one of the main actors with direct influence on the transformation of the landscape in this region. Examples such as this show the importance of taking a sustainable economic recovery approach to this population to conserve the region's natural areas while reducing societal inequalities (UNEP 2016). This methodology is supported by Bustamante et al. (2019), and Redondo et al. (2019), whose sustainability research on productive lands highlights the advantages of using these spatial variables in this type of research. GIS proved to be a powerful tool to display ES distribution and analyse the natural and anthropogenic elements that interact in a multifunctional landscape under climate change conditions; enabling landscape analysis and management.
Similar studies to analyse the Resource Nexus approach; likewise, the WEF-E Nexus as a peacebuilding planning tool have been carried out in the Global South region, for instance, in Africa. Al-Saidi et al. (2017) analysed data on patterns of natural resource usage and conducted an approach on the cooperation potential between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia in the water, energy, and food sectors in a post-conflict context. Maconachie et al. (2012) developed a resource management-based research study in urban and peri-urban agricultural systems in a post-war context in Sierra Leone.
4.1 Landscape Units and Prioritisation of Areas
The study area was initially analysed according to five main parameters: land cover/land use, climate, relief, type of producer and technology in agriculture (Landscape Units). Bustamante et al. (2019) described such an approach to allow for the homogenisation, and biophysical and socio-cultural trade-off identification for the selected areas. The use of the Continental ecosystems Map developed by IDEAM, IGAC, IAvH, Invemar, and I.Sinchi (2007) further helped develop this research phase, as this map presents updated and detailed information on the state of the country's ecosystems. Likewise, the CORINE technology offered by IDEAM is an open source, with a mapping of land cover at the national level. Given the complex and varied ecosystems synonymous with a mountainous territory, the cluster of ecosystems based on the classification of biomes, generated by IDEAM and associated with the biotic units developed by the Alexander von Humboldt Institute, offered valuable information on the ecological composition at the regional level. A wide range of authors have used these tools to develop research related to socio-ecological aspects similar to this study in Colombia, i.e. Forero and Joppa (2010), Bustamante et al. (2019), and Vargas et al. (2020).
The Landscape Units definition and priority areas allowed for selecting areas intersecting with natural resources to assess water supply and the impact of climate change on the finite water resource. The priority areas defined in this research could also provide relevant information for the environmental public policy sector. Furthermore, aligning the priority areas with the local authorities’ objectives could provide relevant information on the drivers and impacts related to socioeconomic and ecological dynamics at the local level. This alignment is extensively applicable to topics of biological conservation and the inclusion of food producers at the family level.
4.2 Land Use and Land Cover Change
The LULC change assessment, utilising images from the Landsat series from USGS from 1985 and 2020, showed the changes in the study area to be mainly related to the loss of endemic vegetation and the expansion of agricultural fields. Despite the reduction of Andean Forest and Sub-Andean vegetation, this land cover still dominates most of the territory in the study area. The supervised classification of land cover was adequate to carry out this analysis. Although some authors, i.e. Vargas et al. (2020), explain that this classification - being subjective - can lose precision and is not recommended in areas with a wide variety of land cover, for this particular research, the exchange of bands in the satellite images helped to classify the areas with certainty based on use and coverage. In addition, the use of other references, such as CORINE and the map of continental ecosystems of IDEAM, served as support for this analysis. The scale used was 1:100.000, as recommended by Morales (2013), to develop a detailed analysis of fragmented ecosystems, thus generating proposals to improve natural resource management at a local level.
The "expansion of the agricultural frontier" has thus become visible. It is followed by the analysis of the trend of agricultural expansion in the southwestern and western regions of Planadas with natural areas holding a status of legal protection by the government (Parque Nacional Natural Nevado del Huila). According to authors such as Maconachie et al. (2012), Graser et al. (2020), or Suarez et al. (2018), post-conflict zones have shared experience with significant natural losses (in Colombia, mainly deforestation) stemming from the conflicts over unowned land after an armed conflict. Even though the deforestation rates in Planadas-Tolima are low compared with regions such as Caqueta-North Amazon (according to Otero and Pinero (2019), just in 2016, 178.000 ha were deforested), the results of this study showed an increase in the fragmentation of areas generated by agriculture. It is therefore necessary to boost the correct management of natural resources and reduce the extractive industry to mitigate the impact of landscape fragmentation generated by anthropogenic actions (Negret et al. 2017).
The results of land cover change in this approach provides a picture of the current state of the municipality of Planadas and trends over time - all useful in a period of peacebuilding that combines land reforms, encouraging the displaced, vulnerable populations - mainly farmers - to return to their homes, and supporting the reactivation of local economies (Negret et al. 2017). The urban land was not analysed, as urban areas did not significantly change during the studied period.
4.3 Ecosystem Service Assessment
The analysis of ESs in the Planadas region, in conjunction with the first three phases of this research (Classification and Homogenisation of areas and spatiotemporal analysis), was shown to be a practical methodology to detect the vulnerability of a landscape caused by the overuse and/or misuse of resources, and to evaluate the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on natural resources. The methodology enabled the precise analysis on the distribution of ecosystem services in the studied areas. The results showed an expansion of fields dedicated to producing food and a high decrease in natural forests. LULC changes over the studied period showed landscape fragmentation produced by decreased endemic tree species, and increased erosion risks. These results are further supported by studies presented by Morales and Armenteras (2013), which illustrated the fragmentation of habitats caused by deforestation in the Colombian Central Andes mountains range area. Likewise, Toro and Roldan (2018) presented evidence on the decline of endemic tree species in Colombian Andean Forests, and observed the decrease in water supply and increased erosion in Colombian Andes ecosystems.
As Burkhard et al. (2009) argued, with the combination of the assumptions stemming from expert reasoning (Matrix for the assessment of the different land cover types' capacities) and statistical data, it was possible in this study to evaluate ESs. Water could be categorised as supporting, regulating, provisioning, and cultural ES (MA 2005), with the ES of freshwater given by streams fitting into each of these classifications, - and being vital to the livelihoods of local communities. The application of open geodata from IDEAM helped to collect evidence of quantities of freshwater ecosystems provided in the region over the years. The results showed a substantial decrease in freshwater provision in the study area, with areas that supplied a quantity of water in 2010 now being reduced by half. These results indicate that the regional tendency is for water production to continue decreasing over the coming years. Initially, the most affected populations shall be farming families whose livelihoods directly depend upon the services provided by natural resources. These results are related to studies such as those developed by Toro and Roldan (2018), which indicate that the reduction of endemic species in the Colombian Andes in the last decades, i.e., the Juglans Neotropica, has been reduced by more than 50% of the species in favour of timber demand. These endemic species biologically bring many benefits to ecosystems, such as the conservation and protection of water sources and erosion regulation. Endemic species reduction impacts the provision of ESs (Toro and Roldan, 2018). It is necessary to incentivise the community to carry out the correct administration of resources and, at the local government level, to commit to the sustainable use of resources.
The necessity of food production for a constantly increasing global population, with altered hydrology on ES, imparts a most significant challenge for the agricultural sector and the management of natural resources. The results of this study show a significant increase in the change of LULC for agricultural purposes. Fragmentation of the landscape generated by the land-use change was observed, along with a sharp decrease in natural forests during the period analysed. In those study areas where agricultural fields have increased, it was also observed that the water supply decreased. These results are further supported by the arguments made by Gordon (2010), who, in research of drivers of hydrological systems water affectation, highlights the correlation between LULC change with irrigation and alterations of water resources in terms of water quality and quantity. Moreover, Sanchez and Ericxon (2020) argue that streams' biological conservation in Planadas Tolima is low. Specifically, the Los Moyanos stream (which crosses the municipality from north to south) shows low ecological conditions, and the physicochemical samples demonstrated very low water quality due to the high amount of chemicals deposited by agricultural and household wastewater.
This work was based on the spatial extension of lands for food production. Although Burkhard et al. (2009) claimed that it is convenient to integrate this approach with the intensity of crop production , the research presented provides a first approach to the current status of natural resources at a productive landscape level. Indeed, this approach forms a first step to continuing the development of the quantification of ESs in Planadas-Tolima. For this paper, no quantification of ES of food production or erosion regulation was performed, however, this research sought to define the current state of natural resources, and to understand the trends generated by climate change and anthropogenic activities over 35 years. These results support the quantification of the natural resources that are necessary for the "impacts analysis" - an assessment required to encourage the private and public sectors to invest in environmentally-conscious initiatives, and in seeking economic growth and reactivation after the COVID19 pandemic, as stated by the Colombian government at the Summit 2030 of October 2021.
The use of the Caldas Lang climate index from the IDEAM allowed for the observation of regions subject to the conversion towards a warmer climate, e., Super cold to cold, or to temperate, where the freshwater supply decreased over time. These results indicate that food production will undergo severe and detrimental impacts as a result of climate change in the medium term. According to Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security CCAFS (2016), this impact may lead to the decreased production of agricultural products, increased prices in the food market, loss of nutrient quality ( due to more fertilisers being required), migration of crops upwards to the vicinity of the Andean forests and paramos (Moorland's ecosystems, one of the primary sources of water in Colombia [PNACC 2020]). These are some of the most relevant challenges faced by farmers and the whole food supply chain alike.
The results of this study suggest a lack of planning at a landscape level. The progressive erosion regulation deteriorates certain areas, and increases risks of erosion. In this case, the erosion in question was not quantified, but based on a matrix of land types of capacities and LULC changes (by Burkhard et al. 2009); an overview of Planadas-Tolima areas that are highly at risk of erosion over the coming years were identified. These results are supported by the findings of Toro and Roldan (2018), which showed the high reduction (of more than 50%) of endemic tree species in the Colombian Andes that helps preserve the quality of soils and provide erosion regulation. As Haida et al. (2016) stated, soil erosion regulation given by woody vegetation reduces the risks of soil damage.
4.4 The Resource Nexus approach. Limitations and Future Research
As recommended by FAO (2013) and FAO (2017), and in the extensive literature on the sustainability of productive systems, more attention should be given to downscaling the application at the community level. This paper focused on natural resources management and equality at the family farmers' level as the smallest unit for food production at the regional level. The analysis confirmed the relevance of small producers to landscape conservation and their influence on natural habitats. Thus, the need to intensify support for concrete national plans toward the consolidation of sustainable and inclusive food production (NDC 2020; PNCC 2020) in Colombia is evident. The outcome of the ES assessment, in conjunction with social issues, clearly shows the potential for improved spatial planning to increase the ES through determining those areas requiring of environmental management to limit CC impact in the Region of Tolima. The spatial analysis recommendations encourage the use of open sources for landscape ecology design, while Landscape Planning is possible with the many open sources offered by different government agencies. However, data accuracy should be strengthened through fieldwork. To that end, it shall form the next step of this research.
The trade-offs highlighted between resources (water- food provisioning) call for an in-depth understanding of the Resource Nexus approach for environmental means. Such an approach could increase water, energy, and food security by combining management and governance through a myriad of areas and scales, decreasing trade-offs, and developing synergies, supporting sustainability and the transformation to a green economy (Hoff 2011).
The observed expansion of Colombia's agricultural land is directly proportional to increased water needs for irrigation (Hettiarachchi 2017) and energy demand; further translated into fertiliser consumption and transportation of goods. Additionally, the decrease in water provisioning in the Tolima Region indirectly implies the risks posed to the energy sector in terms of hydropower energy production, as the water capacity in the basin will be affected. This evidence is of significant concern, as Colombia bases most of the country’s energy provisioning on the hydropower sector (Colombian National Natural Parks [PNNC] 2018).
The following steps should look into ES quantification (food production and erosion regulation based on the in situ collected data) to determine the extent to which integrated resource management should be applied at the landscape level (i.e. identifying priority areas presented in this paper). A subsequent, quantitative Nexus analysis will allow for the definition of sustainable interventions, and potential solutions that could positively influence agricultural practices and maintain natural habitats in the face of secured economic growth at the Regional Level. The advent of circular economy approaches in Colombia is one of the areas in which a Nexus solution should seek synergies. The Safe Use of Wastewater in Agriculture – SUWA could indeed contribute to the achievement of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals as set out in the 2030 Agenda - namely (SDG) # 6 - Clean water and sanitation, SDG #2 - no hunger, while also fostering processes to alleviate poverty and reduce inequalities (Markantonies et al. 2019).
Serena Caucci and Jairo Guzman developed the conceptualization, data collection and spatial analysis, and writing of the original draft. Abdulhakeem Amer Abdulhafed Al-Qubati reviewed the methodology, and the water flow formulas and contributed to refining the spatial analysis in ArcGIS. Maria Schellens contributed to the manuscript's revision and added important intellectual content. All authors reviewed the final version of the manuscript.
This work was supported by the Saxon State Ministry for Science, Culture and Tourism (SMWK), Germany
All authors certify that they have no affiliations with or involvement in any organization or entity with any financial interest or non-financial interest in the subject matter or materials discussed in this manuscript.
Acknowledgements
This research is supported by the Saxon State Ministry for Science, Culture and Tourism (SMWK), Germany, for a project entitled “Resource Nexus Issues Revealed by COVID-19 for Professional Communities in the Agri-Food Supply Chain”. The authors acknowledge the NEXUSNET COST ACTION for their contribution to content. The authors acknowledge the Colombian private and public institutions that supported local information in the development of this research: The secretary of Agriculture from the department of Valle del Cauca led by Maritza del Carmen Quinonez, as well as Jorge Duran and Astrid Gutierrez leaders of ASCOFFEEKATIN, Gizeth Gomez leader of the association ASOAMUR, and the association ASOES that supported infield information. The authors also would like to acknowledge the research assistant Louisa Andrews for editing the manuscript.
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No competing interests reported.