We estimate the GEDI-domain (N/S of 51 degrees latitude) total protected area woody AGB is 125.3 Gt (+/- 0.62 Gt), equivalent to approximately 225.4 Gt (+/- 1.11) CO2eq. While protected areas represent approximately 11% of the measured forested area (16.2 Mkm2, Fig. 1), they store 26% (125.3 Gt) of the total estimated AGB (480 Gt, 24). This represents all PA biomass, not just that attributed to PA status (termed additionally preserved AGB). Areas with PA status have, on average, 28% more AGB than their matched unprotected sites, for a total of 19.7 Gt (+/- 1.84 Gt) of additionally preserved PA AGB.
Why is there more Biomass in Protected Areas than similar forests?
Most global forested PAs (62.7%) had significantly higher biomass in 2020 than matched unprotected areas. Matching between PAs and unprotected areas was conducted for a baseline year of 2000, assuming that forest structure was equal between PAs and matches for the year 2000 based on a suite of ecological, anthropogenic pressure, and climate variables. Our results therefore represent approximately 20 years of change in PAs and their matched counterparts. The observed differences in 2020 structure could be explained by (i) less AGB loss in PAs compared to matched unprotected areas resulting from deforestation and/or forest degradation between 2000 and 2020, (ii) increased forest growth in PAs compared to matched unprotected areas between 2000 and 2020, or (iii) PAs being preferentially established in higher biomass areas before 2000.
Forest cover dynamics from the Landsat data record were also analyzed from 2000–2020 25, and showed more than half of PAs with > 5 Mg/ha higher mean Aboveground Biomass Density (AGBD) also had lower rates of forest loss within PAs than in matched unprotected areas (Fig S4). Thus, the observed higher concentrations of AGB in PAs were attributed primarily to avoided carbon emissions from deforestation, which is supported by the optical data record (hypothesis i). In ~ 18% of PAs, the forest cover change data does not detect loss, while GEDI still observes higher AGB in PAs compared to matches. In these cases, we speculate that degradation is occurring outside of PAs, but is not visible to passive optical sensors that form the basis of the forest cover loss data (e.g. small-scale logging, understory loss, etc.). This apparent degradation signal demonstrates the importance of datasets such as GEDI to detect subtle changes in carbon stocks that were not detectable with previous satellite datasets 26. Indeed, avoided degradation associated with PAs has likely been missed in past studies analyzing reduced carbon loss rates in PAs, and thus underestimated. Although we attribute PAs where we see higher AGB without reduced forest cover losses as avoided degradation, PA vegetation in these cases may also be exhibiting enhanced growth (ii) 27. Our assertion of enhanced growth is supported by local and regional studies assessing PA forest growth 28,29. For these 18% of PAs without apparent forest loss in matches, we cannot definitively attribute the signal to degradation, enhanced growth, or a combination of both. Overall, we therefore attribute our findings primarily to avoided emissions from deforestation and secondarily to a combination of enhanced growth and/or avoided degradation (hypotheses i and ii).
We found little evidence that PA were placed in higher Carbon density forests (hypothesis iii). If PAs were being established in higher AGB areas, their baseline (year 2000) AGB should be higher than matches. We used a pre-existing year 2000 AGB map to test this, and found that recently established PAs (established in or after 2000) had little differences in AGB between PA and matched unprotected area in the year 2000 (Fig S3). Older PAs did have significantly higher 2000 AGB values than matched areas, and this difference increased with time since establishment. These findings are in line with expectations of PAs adding additional AGB through time, rather than being preferentially located in high AGB locations. We therefore conclude that preferential establishment in high AGB areas does not explain our observations of higher AGB densities in PAs.
The Amazon Dominated the Global Signal
The starkest contrast between protected and matched unprotected forests was found in South America, specifically the Tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forest biome in the Brazilian Amazon (Fig. 2). This supports recent results related to the effectiveness of PAs in Brazil for avoiding deforestation 30,31, and quantifies the climate change impact of Brazilian PAs at 7.22 Gt AGB more than matched unprotected areas, representing 36.6% of the global signal. Again, this supports our hypothesis that differences between PA and unprotected AGB are primarily associated with avoided emissions from forest loss and degradation, as Brazil experienced the highest national forest loss rates of any country during the analysis period 13. It is also noteworthy that while South American PAs have the greatest avoided carbon emissions (additionally preserved AGB), they cover roughly the same geographic extent as African PAs (Table 1). Avoided emissions are a factor of both (a) deforestation rates outside of PAs and (b) the biomass densities of forests being lost (Fig. 4). Therefore while Africa hosts a similar total area of PAs, these have, on average lower biomass densities than in Latin America or tropical Asia 32, and are smaller (the median PA area in Africa is 85 km2 compared to South America’s 127 km2), which may result in increased disturbance. Additionally, there is a larger increase in anthropogenic pressure in both PAs and matched unprotected areas in the Afrotropics than in South America, which may be reflected in the relatively lower carbon effectiveness we saw in African forests 33. Indeed, Africa has the largest proportion of PAs with no additionally preserved AGB (Fig S5).
PA additionally preserved AGB varied considerably by biome, and while the signal was unsurprisingly highest in tropical moist forests, the dominant biome varied by continent (Fig. 2). The Amazon dominates the global signal in carbon effectiveness. Tropical moist forests also dominate Asia's signal, given high forest loss rates in Southeast Asia. Conversely, African PA effectiveness was dominated by temperate and tropical/subtropical grasslands, savannas, and shrublands. Indeed, Africa is the only continent where the PA effectiveness is not highest in a forest dominated biome, suggesting that PAs in woodlands, grasslands, savannas and shrublands may be reducing land conversion, e.g. to agriculture, reducing charcoal degradation 34, or bolstering woody encroachment 35,36 and thus curbing net carbon emissions in these systems. Yet tropical dry forests and woodlands are under protection both in Africa (less than one fourth protected) and worldwide (less than one third protected)37. With an estimated population of 320 million inhabiting such landscapes in the 2000s and an average of 2.4% increase per annum in sub-saharan Africa (Eva et al, 2006; Chidumayo and Gumbo, 2010), these ecosystems are facing higher human development pressure than humid forests. Therefore, our results substantiate the critical roles of protected areas in dry forest and woodland ecosystems.
At a global scale, forests dominate the carbon effectiveness of PAs (Table 1, Fig. 2). A singular exception is mangrove forests, which show a near zero effect of PA on Carbon stocks. This may be due to a few factors. First, many mangroves globally are below 5 m in height, therefore GEDI will miss a large portion of mangrove biomass both in protected areas and outside of them, this will skew the results. Secondly mangrove PAs may either be ineffective at protecting AGB as we know that mangroves are extremely vulnerable to human pressure. Specifically, we found lower AGB in protected mangrove areas in Indonesia and Malaysia, which also harbor most of the mangrove cover and PA’s worldwide (25% of Global mangrove extent and C is in Indonesia alone, as well as most of the deforestation). Finally, deforestation rates have declined in all mangroves since the year 2000 38 and 50% or more of global mangrove cover was already lost by 2000, limiting remaining unprotected mangrove areas available for cutting. While this result contrasts with studies demonstrating effective PAs for curbing mangrove loss in Indonesia 39, it may be related to complicated and challenging mangrove management 40, and is supported by results of a global mangrove study 38 which indicated increased pressure on Indonesian protected mangroves in particular, providing evidence that some PAs may be ineffective at protecting mangrove AGB. It is possible that mangrove AGB is being degraded while canopy cover remains intact, but further research specifically into carbon-rich mangrove ecosystems in PAs is critical. Finally, as GEDI does not collect data north of ~ 52 latitude, results related to boreal forests are underrepresented here, and should be interpreted as only the most southern boreal forests.
Table 1. The “additionally preserved AGB” is the difference between the AGB observed in PAs and ecologically similar unprotected areas. This AGB is aggregated at a biome, continental, and global scale. The total PA AGB stock and total area of PAs in million km2 (Mkm2) are also reported.
Most countries (78%) in the GEDI domain have reduced carbon emissions in protected areas (higher AGB compared to matched unprotected areas). The top 20 countries in terms of PA effectiveness at preserving carbon (Fig. 3) are either (a) geographically large, (b) host forests with high AGB, and/or (c) have high forest loss rates of unprotected forests (Fig. 4). Many of the top 20 countries fall in tropical dense forested areas such as the Amazon (Brazil, Venezuela, Peru, Bolivia), the Congo Basin (DRC), or Southeast Asia (Thailand, Indonesia, Cambodia, Malaysia). Outside the tropics, highly ranked countries tend to be geographically large (Australia, USA, Canada, France, Spain), or clustered in Eastern or Southern Africa where our results show biggest impacts outside of forests (Tanzania, Mozambique, Zimbabwe).
PAs are characterized by taller, denser, higher biomass forests
While we focused primarily on an analysis of forest AGB, similar trends were found for other GEDI-based forest structure variables, including maximum and mean canopy height, Plant Area Index (PAI), and canopy cover (Fig. 5). As GEDI predicts AGB as a function of height metrics 41, similar effectiveness was anticipated between AGB and height. However, canopy cover and PAI, which are independent structural data products, were also higher within PAs than outside PAs. This suggests forest structure beyond carbon is being negatively affected in the absence of protected status, which correlates with habitat suitability and biodiversity 42. Further, forest structure (e.g. complexity, cover) is known to influence regional hydrology 43 and be tightly linked to climate and soil characteristics 44. These results therefore highlight co-benefits of PAs between carbon and biodiversity 11.