Background: The global outbreak of COVID-19 has caused worrying concern amongst the public and health authorities. The first and foremost problem that many countries face is a shortage of medical resources. The experience of Wuhan, China, in fighting against COVID-19 provides a model for other countries to learn from.
Methods: We formulated a piecewise smooth model to describe the limitation of hospital beds, based on the transmission progression of COVID-19, and the strengthening prevention and control strategies implemented in Wuhan, China. We used data of the cumulative numbers of confirmed cases, cured cases and deaths in Wuhan city from 10 January to 20 March, 2020 to estimate unknown parameters and the effective reproduction number. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate the impact of a shortage of hospital beds on the COVID-19 outbreak.
Results: Even with strong prevention and control measures in Wuhan, slowing down of the supply rate, reducing the maximum capacity and delaying the intervention time of supplementing hospital beds aggravated the outbreak severity by magnifying the cumulative numbers of confirmed cases and deaths, prolonging the period of the outbreak in Wuhan, enlarging the value of the effective reproduction number during the outbreak and postponing the time when the threshold value is reduced to 1.
Conclusions: The quick establishment of the Huoshenshan and Leishenshan Hospitals in a short time and the deployment of mobile cabin hospitals played important roles in containing the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, providing a model for other countries to provide more hospital beds for COVID-19 patients faster and earlier.