Seasonal environmental fragility (EF)
Seasonal EF revealed different temporal and spatial structures in UW as a function of seasonality, which made it possible to assess seasonal conditions previously unrevealed in studies that address this topic (Bacani et al. 2015; França 2018; Asciutti 2019; Souza et al. 2020).
The EF classification revealed that there is proximity between autumn and winter, differently from what was observed in the other seasons, because, in general, the model showed statistically significant seasonal differences (p < 0.05).
The low class is present in all seasons and its largest representation of area is in winter (64%) and autumn (55%) (Fig. 3 and Table 5), with distribution in practically the entire basin, especially in occupied areas by natural vegetation and forestry. In winter, there is a greater reduction in plant biomass due to the water availability in the system, and the association of autumn in the volume of precipitation corroborates the increase in the area of the low class.
Table 5
Area occupied by UW seasonal EF class.
Fragility Classes | Autumn | Winter | Spring | Summer |
| km2 | % | km2 | % | km2 | % | km2 | % |
1 – Very Low | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
2 – Low | 54.49 | 55% | 63.54 | 64% | 26.52 | 27% | 37.61 | 38% |
3 - Mean | 34.44 | 35% | 28.06 | 28% | 45.88 | 46% | 41.38 | 42% |
4 – High | 10.47 | 11% | 7.85 | 8% | 26.97 | 27% | 20.37 | 20% |
5 – Very High | 0.05 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | 0% | 0.09 | 0% |
Total | 99.45 | 100% | 99.45 | 100% | 99.45 | 100% | 99.45 | 100% |
The mean class, as in other studies that used weighted overlap in watersheds in Mato Grosso do Sul, also showed greater spatial distribution in pasture areas (Pires et al. 2015; Silva and Bacani 2017; Abrão and Bacani 2018; Silva et al. 2022). Other studies registered not only pasture areas but also forestry areas (Cunha and Bacani, 2016; Vick et al. 2021), which consequently showed an influence of the weights adopted for land use and land cover classes, and the attribution of fixed values can collaborate in an incongruous analysis of the landscape (Lira et al. 2022).
The areas of high EF showed greater spatial extension in spring and summer (27% and 20%), grouped in the north, northeast and south, under pasture uses, exposed soil and harvested forestry area. Valle et al. (2016) pointed out that areas with considerable vegetation cover removal resulted in soil instability, which was classified in the high and very high EF classes. Vital et al. (1999) observed that the estimated soil loss doubled in value in the first year after the timber harvest but was lower than in agriculture.
The very high class appears in three seasons with a small spatial distribution in summer (less than 1% of the area). In autumn and spring, it corresponds to approximately 1% of the total basin, varying spatially along the edges of the drainage network.
In spring and summer, there is a gradual increase in the volume of precipitation, especially in the north of the area where the volumes are greater, contributing to the potential increase in erosivity, which coincides with the area with the highest erodibility rate, making it fragile to develop erosive processes. On the other hand, the vegetation cover, which has the functionality of minimizing the impact of erosivity according to the density of the vegetation (Valle et al. 2016; Belato et al. 2019), mitigated the erosive potential of the area.
In the annual EF, established from the weighted average of the seasons, the very low class, as well as in the seasonal ones, was not identified. Very high class concentrations were observed on the banks of the water impoundment (fluvial plain); the high class in the north and northeast of the basin (pastures); the mean class in an area of harvested forestry and the low class in an area of forestry and natural vegetation (Fig. 4 and Table 6).
Table 6
Area occupied by seasonal EF class in UW.
Classes of Fragility | Annual FE |
| km2 | % |
1 – Very Low | 0.00 | 0% |
2 – Low | 35.01 | 35.21% |
3 – Mean | 48.92 | 49.19% |
4 – High | 15.43 | 15.52% |
5 – Very High | 0.08 | 0.08% |
Total | 99.45 | 100% |
In the seasonal models (EF), the harvested forestry areas began to stand out in the spring and summer with the high class of fragility, while in the annual model these areas were associated with the mean class, which is a result of the composition of autumn and winter that still contained vegetation.
Seasonal soil loss
The soil loss estimation showed variations throughout the seasons (Ferreira and Panagopoulos, 2014). The soil loss estimation in autumn was between 0.0003 to 5.33 t.ha− 1month− 3, in winter between 0.0003 to 3.30 t.ha− 1month− 3, in spring between 0.0015 to 18.65 t.ha− 1month− 3 and in the summer between 0.0020 to 28.79 t.ha− 1month− 3 (Fig. 5).
The seasons with the lowest erosivity index, such as autumn and winter, also presented the lowest average values of soil loss 0.07683 t.ha− 1month− 3 and 0.0569 t.ha− 1month− 3. In spring and summer, the highest soil loss rates were observed, whose averages were, respectively, 0.3733 t.ha− 1month− 3 and 0.4393 t.ha− 1month− 3.
The seasonal evaluation showed a significant difference, i.e. p < 0.05, and there was also proximity in the soil loss values, forming two different groups: the first, Autumn-Winter, and the second, Spring-Summer. In the paired comparison between soil losses by season, it was observed that there are significant differences (p < 0.01) between all seasons (Winter-Spring; Winter-Summer; Autumn-Spring; Autumn-Summer), except in the Autumn-Winter (p < 0.868), and Spring and Summer (p < 0.999) pairs.
In autumn, the vegetation cover presents maximum levels of plant biomass with less erosivity compared to spring and summer, providing the soil loss minimization; the contrary was observed in spring; the winter presents low levels of soil loss due to the low erosivity detected between the seasons, although it already shows a lower density of vegetation cover.
The hypothesis of higher soil loss rates in the summer was confirmed, because in the Cerrado, between the months of May and October (autumn and winter), there is a decrease in water in the system, causing water stress. As a result, there is a formation of a litter layer (Inkotte et al. 2022), aiming to minimize water loss by plants and contributing to soil moisture retention (Oliveira et al. 2015b), however in summer, decomposition processes tend to occur faster due to the increase in temperature and humidity, reducing soil protection.
In areas of vegetation such as cerrado and riparian vegetation, soil loss values, in general, also present low values, as in other studies (Bruijnzeel 2004; Colman et al. 2018; Oliveira et al. 2015b), as forest native vegetation perform better in soil protection (Kouli et al. 2009; Oliveira et al. 2013). The same is also observed in forestry (Cândido et al. 2014).
Vegetation cover also plays a key role in soil protection, as precipitation intercepted by vegetation leaves minimizes the potential energy of water (Cândido et al. 2014; Valle et al. 2016).
The association of topographic factors (Prasannakumar et al. 2011) with high levels of vegetation cover density (Mancino et al. 2016) resulted in less development of the soil erosion potential. The combination of geomorphological characteristics, the high density of the vegetation cover and the accumulation of litter (due to the advanced development of silviculture) are characteristics of UW, which contributed to the dissipation of the potential of the kinetic force of water (Martins et al. 2010).
Annual soil loss mapping, generated from the sum of the seasons, showed an average of 0.9471 t.ha− 1year− 1 (Fig. 6), a value above that seasonally detected, with a higher concentration of soil loss on the pasture and harvested forestry areas, settled on the region of high erodibility index and Ultisol, indicating that the rate of soil loss demonstrated dependence on the local characteristics of the UW.
In the UW, there is a predominance of Slightly Light and Mild to Moderate classes with 85.05% and 11.36%, respectively, of the total area of soil loss, as shown in Table 7.
Table 7
Classification of soil loss according to Beskow, 2009.
Soil loss class (BESKOW, 2009) | Area (km2) | Area (%) | Mean t.ha− 1ano− 1 | SD |
Slightly Light (< 2.5) | 84.58 | 85.05 | 0.28 | 0.65 |
Mild to Moderate (2.5–5) | 11.30 | 11.36 | 3.77 | 0.74 |
Moderate (5–10) | 3 | 3.02 | 6.69 | 1.32 |
Moderate to High | 0.43 | 0.43 | 11.71 | 1.38 |
High (15–20) | 0.8 | 0.08 | 16.97 | 1.42 |
High to Very High (20–50) | 0.5 | 0.06 | 25.37 | 5.83 |
Very High (50–100) | - | - | - | - |
Extremely High (> 100) | - | - | - | - |
The lowest average soil loss estimations were detected over land use and land cover classes such as riparian vegetation (1.05 t.ha− 1year− 1) and Cerrado (1.03 t.ha− 1year− 1) and presented in other studies (Oliveira et al. 2015; Cunha et al. 2017; Cunha et al. 2022). Forestry, among all use classes, presented the lowest estimate of soil loss (0.66 t.ha− 1year− 1). This reduction may be related to the age of the monoculture (Martins et al. 2010; Oliveira et al. 2013).
Soil loss estimates were also below the soil loss tolerance, as shown in Table 8.
Table 8
Soil types and soil loss tolerance.
Soil Type | Soil Loss (t.ha-1ano-1) | Tolerance (t.ha-1ano-1) |
Red Ultisol medium texture | 1.39 | 9.04 |
Red Oxisol medium texture | 0.59 | 12.26 |
Alfisol Haplic medium/sandy texture | 0.48 | 5.74 |
Source: loss tolerance by soil type: Red Ultisol (PVe) and Red Oxisol (LVd)
according to Lima et al. (2019); Alfisol Haplic (SX) of Mannigel et al. (2002).
Validation of EF and RUSLE seasonal models with erosion points
The Local Moran bivariate (I) values in the EF models showed positive bivariate spatial autocorrelation values (between erosion points and EF) in the pasture (high-high) and forestry (low-low) areas in the UW, which resulted in Moran values of 0.322 in autumn, 0.345 in winter, 0.241 in spring, 0.266 in summer and 0.298 in the year, from the weighted superposition of the seasons (Fig. 7).
The positive autocorrelation between the EF models and the erosion points is marked by the similarity of the average values between the neighbors as in the results of the forestry areas (blue color) and mainly in the pasture areas (red color) to the north of the UW; the other Moran classes indicated that the variables have values that are different from each other and/or in transition between spatial patterns (Ramos 2014; Luzardo et al. 2017).
In the RUSLE model, the Moran index showed positive bivariate autocorrelation values (between erosion points and estimated erosion) in autumn of 0.215, in winter of 0.214, in spring of 0.190, in summer of 0.181 and in the year of 0.214, from the sum of the stations. In RUSLE, the Moran values were lower than the EF due to the spatial heterogeneity of the distribution of the estimated soil loss, reflecting greater sensitivity in certain areas of the UW to soil loss (Fig. 8).
The positive autocorrelation observed between the two models (RUSLE and EF) and the erosion points revealed concentrated and significant spatial relationships between pasture and forestry areas, revealing the sensitivity of both models in the seasonal detection of different levels of environmental degradation. However, the EF model was more sensitive to seasonal changes reflected in the NDVI, as well as higher values of positive spatial correlation of Moran I with erosion points, both in the annual comparison and by seasons in relation to the RUSLE model.