Between 2005 and 2019 emissions from fossil fuels produced on federal lands and waters accounted for nearly a quarter of annual US energy emissions, roughly 1,400 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year. Despite their magnitude, emissions stemming from federal lands energy production have not historically featured in US climate policy. To better understand their future role in the US’s emissions profile, we model coal, oil and natural gas production on federal lands and waters to 2030, and then calculate associated lifecycle climate emissions. We estimate that total emissions from fossil fuels produced on federal lands and waters decline 28% below 2010 levels by 2030, which falls well short of the 45% global reduction target needed to be consistent with avoiding a 1.5°C temperature rise. The Biden-Harris administration will likely need to pursue a suite of actions if they hope to bring federal emissions in line with ambitious climate targets. Several options, including a carbon adder on royalties for new federal leases, can be quickly enacted without Congressional approval.