The present study has taken into consideration the arrivals and prices of turmeric from APMC of Sangli district for the period of 2010-2011 to 2014-2015. Data were analyzed to achieve the objectives of the study. After compilation of data, functional analysis such as seasonal indices, S.D., C.V. (%) and correlation were computed for precision in conclusion. The computation procedure, of these analytical tools is given in the following section.
Seasonal indices: To examine the peak slack period, monthly seasonal indices were worked out by simply average method.
= The mean of ith months for nth years
The irregular fluctuations were estimated by averaging the figures of data.
Coefficient of variation:
Coefficient of variation is “percentage variation in the mean as the standard deviation being stated as the total variation in the mean.” The coefficient of variations of each market arrivals and prices were worked out for comparing the variability present in market arrivals and prices.
Where,
CV = Coefficient of variation
SD = Standard deviation
S.D. is Standard deviation which is the measure of dispersion. This measure of dispersion was calculated by securing the deviation of each observation from the mean, adding the square dividing by number of (n-1) observations less one and extracting the square root.
Where,
Xi = Arrivals / prices
= Mean of arrivals / prices
n = Number of years / months
Relationship between arrivals and prices:
In order to know the relationship between arrivals (x) and prices (y), the simple linear correlation was estimated by using Karl pearson’s method:
Compound Annual growth rate:
In order to know instability and growth in turmeric arrivals and price growth rate is estimated by using following formula
Analysis and interpretation:
Findings and relevant discussion on present study have been summarized under following heads.
Arrivals prices and seasonal fluctuation:
Table No. : 1 Arrivals, Prices and seasonal fluctuation
Months
|
Arrival index
|
Mean arrivals (T)
|
C.V. (%)
|
Price index
|
Mean prices (Rs/q)
|
C.V. (%)
|
April
|
240.43
|
185691.6
|
58.39
|
106.74
|
8979.6
|
33.12
|
May
|
193.29
|
149287.6
|
39.69
|
110.95
|
9333.4
|
42.90
|
June
|
110.07
|
85014.4
|
40.44
|
100.83
|
8482.6
|
50.43
|
July
|
87.55
|
67620
|
66.20
|
100.81
|
8480.8
|
46.07
|
August
|
55.02
|
42490.6
|
65.03
|
95.35
|
8021.2
|
48.56
|
September
|
42.00
|
32436.6
|
55.73
|
84.78
|
7132.6
|
46.64
|
October
|
36.56
|
28239.4
|
75.98
|
86.87
|
7308.4
|
55.76
|
November
|
25.46
|
19660.2
|
60.67
|
91.42
|
7690.8
|
54.06
|
December
|
36.72
|
28362
|
60.46
|
93.94
|
7902.6
|
51.71
|
January
|
43.65
|
33715.8
|
68.81
|
105.06
|
8838.2
|
48.01
|
February
|
122.41
|
94543.2
|
32.51
|
107.29
|
9026
|
38.76
|
March
|
206.84
|
159752.8
|
18.93
|
115.96
|
9755.2
|
32.28
|
Total
|
1200.00
|
926814.2
|
642.86
|
1200.00
|
100951.4
|
548.31
|
The result of the seasonal indices for arrivals and prices of turmeric in Sangli market are presented in Table 1. The maximum arrival index was in the month of April 240.43 per cent followed by March and May and it was 206.84 and 193.29 per cent and arrival index was minimum in the month November (25.46%). The price index was maximum in the month of March (115.96%). The price index was minimum in the month of September (84.87%). The instability in arrivals ranged from 18.93to 75.98 per cent in all months, while the instability in prices ranged from 32.28 to 55.76 per cent in all months.
Relationship between Arrivals and prices :
Table no: 2 Correlation between arrivals and prices in Sangali Market for the year 2010-2011 to 2014-2015
Months
|
Correlation r
|
April
|
-0.5639829
|
May
|
-0.8997759
|
June
|
-0.7033451
|
July
|
-0.7698024
|
August
|
-0.7321856
|
September
|
-0.9572841
|
October
|
-0.613494
|
November
|
-0.6775763
|
December
|
-0.7680825
|
January
|
-0.711169
|
February
|
-0.7529369
|
March
|
-0.2285364
|
Relationship between arrivals and prices of turmeric are presented in Table 2. It indicates correlation coefficient between arrivals and prices of turmeric was negative and non-significant in Sangli market. The negative sign indicates inverse relationship between arrivals and prices in Sangli market.
Growth and Instability in turmeric in Sangali market:
The information of compound growth rates in annual arrivals and prices of Turmeric showed in Table no 3. It can be revealed from the table that, the annual compound growth rate of arrivals in case of Turmeric (5.57) were found positive and prices were negative (-5.20). It indicates that arrivals of turmeric increased by 5.57 per cent per annum, prices decreased 5.20 per cent per annum during period under study. The markets showed the increased arrivals and decreased prices in the period under study which may be due to the increased demand for the turmeric; also increased the production of turmeric in area under study.
Table no : 3 Growth and Instability in turmeric in Sangali market
Sr.No
|
Year
|
Arrivals (Q)
|
Prices (Rs./Q)
|
1
|
2010-11
|
42731.33
|
14737.5
|
2
|
2011-12
|
83194.33
|
7052.417
|
3
|
2012-13
|
109373.6
|
5862.417
|
4
|
2013-14
|
68710.25
|
6672.333
|
5
|
2014-15
|
82163.08
|
7738.417
|
6
|
CAGR %
|
5.57
|
-5.20
|