The incidence of COVID-19 is high in many countries globally, and the number of patients with severe disease requiring mechanical ventilation is also rapidly increasing. The number of deaths is increasing due to a lack of sufficient critical care facilities and equipment such as mechanical ventilators.
Conducting clinical trials to determine the efficacy of new drugs, and licensing new drugs takes time. Even drugs that are known to have therapeutic effects require comparative studies on the therapeutic effects in various clinical situations. Patient with COVID-19 of mild-to- moderate severity on presentation may be cured without complications or may progress to severe and debilitating disease. Clinical information is needed to determine whether administration of antiviral agents early in the course of disease can reduce the incidence of severe cases requiring oxygen supplementation or mechanical ventilation. However, most of the information currently available is based on studies of patients who have already had severe disease on admission [21]. The results of this study provide some useful information regarding.
First, our study suggests that early administration of antiviral agent, especially LPV/r to the COVID-19 patients with mild-to-moderate severity can reduce the exacerbation of the disease to severe cases which need oxygen supplementation and mechanical ventilator therapy. One of the largest epidemiologic study from China reported that, among 72,314 COVID-19 cases, 14% were severe and 5% were critical [6]. Guan et al.[22] reported that proportion of severe disease was 15·7%.
In the clinical progression to severe in COVID-19 infection, the median duration from symptoms to dyspnea was 8 days, to ARDS was 9 days, to intensive care unit admission and mechanical ventilation was 10·5 days [2]. In our study, about 90 % of patients with COVID- 19 in Busan were hospitalized in the 2 study hospitals and most of them initiated antiviral drugs early before exacerbation of their COVID-19; from symptom onset to antiviral administration was 3 days. Considering the clinical course of COVID-19, antiviral drugs were administered relatively early in our study and 96% of patients did not need oxygen supplementation or mechanical ventilation. Only 4% of patients required mechanical ventilation. Compared to the result of the study from China, the proportion of severe patients in our study was low although our study included considerable number of elderly patients and patients with significant extent of pneumonia [6]. Therefore, our findings suggest that early diagnosis and early administration of antiviral agent for COVID-19 may reduce the incidence of progression to severe disease and may be associated with better outcomes than if administration of antiviral agents is reserved for patients with severe and complicated disease.
Second, our study demonstrated that patients who received LPV/r were less likely to experience disease progression than those who received HCQ when the antiviral agents were administered early to patients with uncomplicated illness or mild pneumonia, and that these patients were rarely switched to a secondary drug. Conversely, 40% of the patients who were initially treated with HCQ, were switched to LPV/r as salvage therapy due to the attending physician judging that the patient had treatment failure. Although not statistically significant, newly developed pneumonia was also less frequent in patients who received LPV/r than those who received HCQ. It is also noteworthy that the patients receiving LPV/r as the initial antiviral agent had relatively more severe disease and more comorbidities than the patients who were treated with HCQ, suggesting that physicians had a tendency to select LPV/r for patients who were in poorer clinical condition. This might have masked the possible benefits of LPV/r treatment.
A recent randomized controlled trial demonstrated that LPV/r treatment did not significantly accelerate clinical improvement, reduce mortality, or diminish throat viral RNA detectability in patients with severe COVID-19 [21]. However, in this study, the median interval from symptom onset to initiation of antiviral therapy was 13 days, and it is possible that the LPV/r treatment was initiated after clinical deterioration [21]. In a study of use of LPV/r in patients with SARS, LPV/r was associated with reduced steroid use, a reduced need for mechanical ventilation and lower mortality when it was administered in the early stage, but did not show a therapeutic effect if treatment was initiated later in the course of disease [23]. Based on these findings, we hypothesize that early LPV/r treatment for COVID-19, can improve clinical outcomes although LPV/r does not appear to have a clinically significant effect in patients with severe COVID-19.
Some recent studies have shown that HCQ is a potent inhibitor for SARS-CoV-2 in vitro [19, 24]. A recent open label trial which was conducted in France demonstrated that HCQ is significantly associated with viral load reduction in patients with mild COVID-19 and the researchers concluded that HCQ is a promising antiviral agent for COVID-19 [25]. However, in our study, HCQ compared to LPV/r did not effectively prevent clinical progression of COVID-19, and about 40% of patients who receiving HCQ had their antiviral agent switched due to clinically diagnosed failure. To date, no controlled trials of HCQ for SARS-CoV-2 infection have reported clinical outcomes other than a reduction of viral load. Further research is warranted to confirm the clinical effects of HCQ.
Third, our study suggested that LPV/r could be used without major side effects in mild COVID-19 infection. The safety of LPV/r has been confirmed in individuals with HIV- infection, and LPV/r has been used to treat HIV infection for a long time. Known side effects of LPV/r include diarrhea, abnormal stools, abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting, and asthenia [26]. In our study, 22 patients (49%) in the LPV/r group experienced adverse effects, and 2 patients (4%) interrupted drug due to adverse effects. One patient stopped LPV/r because of skin rash, and the other patient stopped LPV/r because of loss of the sense of taste. No life- threatening side effects have been identified in mild patients.
Our study has some limitations. First, the patients who enrolled our study were not randomly assigned to LPV/r group and HCQ group because our study was an observational study.
Therefore, attending physicians’ prior knowledge or preconceptions of antiviral agents may have influenced their choice of antiviral agent, and led them to prescribe LPV/r for more severe cases. Although the patients were not randomized assigned to LPV/r group and HCQ group, the Busan city government distributed patients with confirmed COVID-19 patients to the 2 hospitals on a non-selective basis, and treatment practices differed by hospital, regardless of severity. This reduced the probability of that relatively serious patients would preferentialy receive LPV/r because PNUH used LPV/r as the initial antiviral agent in almost all patients.
Second, there was no uniform protocol in our study because our study was not an experimental study. Therefore, the standard of care may have differed between the 2 hospitals. However, the staff at both hospitals had to follow the guidelines of KCDC and the Busan city government that all patients with confirmed COVID-19 should be hospitalized in the isolation wards; that their clinical course should be observed during hospitalization; and that they should be use the criteria of KCDC to decide when patients were cured and could be released from isolation. Therefore, the entire treatment period was observed in an isolated ward even though some patients had only mild symptoms. This allowed the clinical effects of 2 drugs to be compared in settings similar to experimental study, despite the lack of a uniform protocol.
Third, in this study, HCQ was administered orally at 400 mg daily based on South Korean expert recommendations. However, other studies have shown that 200 mg 8-hourly or 200 mg 12-hourly after a loading dose of 400 mg 12-hourly 2 dose is effective.[19, 25] Further studies of HCQ at different doses are needed.
In conclusion, our study demonstrated that rapid diagnosis and early administration of antiviral agent might prevent progression of COVID-19 to severe disease requiring oxygen supplementation or mechanical ventilation. Based on our study results, LPV/r appears to be more effective than HCQ at preventing progression to severe COVID-19 infection. We recommend a formal clinical trial of LPV/r and HCQ for patients with mild SARS-CoV2 infection.