Cohort composition
A total of 940 cases from the three participating NHS Scotland Biorepositories (Lothian, Greater Glasgow & Clyde, and Grampian) were included, representing the full histological spectrum from normal liver tissue to NAFLD-related cirrhosis (Fig. 1a). Demographic and phenotypic characteristics of the cohort are shown in Table 1. Cases with a liver tissue sample acquired between January 2000 and October 2019 were selected. All patients were ≥ 18 years of age at the tissue sampling date. Data from EHRs and national datasets were retrieved, where available, from a period between ten years before the tissue sampling date until May 2020, comprising over 5.67 million days (or approximately 15,547 years) of comprehensive routine clinical data and annotated timelines created (Fig. 1b, Extended Data Fig. 1, Supplementary Table 1). The post-tissue sampling periods for biopsies, resections, and explants are shown in Extended Data Fig. 2a.
Histopathological characterisation of the SteatoSITE cohort
Traditional subjective histopathology assessments
Scans of haematoxylin and eosin (H&E) and picrosirius red (PSR)-stained sections from each case were assessed by one of three consultant pathologists with a specialist interest in liver pathology. From the H&E-stained sections, NAFLD activity scores (NAS), components of the Steatosis, Activity and Fibrosis (SAF) scoring system, and a score-independent clinical histological diagnosis of NASH were given. From the PSR-stained sections, a NASH-Clinical Research Network (NASH-CRN) and modified Ishak score for staging of fibrosis were given. The inter-rater agreement levels of the scoring pathologists (Supplementary Table 2), assessed on a set of 20 cases after the scoring harmonisation exercise, were at the upper end of the expected ranges17,18. Spearman’s rho correlation coefficient was used to assess the relationship between modified Ishak fibrosis scores and NASH-CRN fibrosis scores, demonstrating the expected significant positive correlation (rs = 0.98, P < 2.2e-16).
Of the 940 cases, 659 were needle biopsies, 227 were from hepatic resections, and 54 were explants for end-stage NAFLD cirrhosis. A clinical histological diagnosis of NASH was given in 455 (48.4%) of cases (Extended Data Fig. 2b). Approximately equal numbers of cases were scored at each point of the NASH-CRN fibrosis scale. The relationship of the NAS components and the NASH-CRN fibrosis score are shown in Fig. 1c.
Quantitative digital pathology feature measurement
A pixel classifier was trained to identify fat and PSR-positive tissue within scans of PSR-stained sections (Extended Data Fig. 2c). All classified images were manually quality-controlled and any images containing large fragments of liver capsule, large portal tracts or hilar tissue, or with artefact that was easily ignored during subjective assessment but erroneously computationally classified were removed. The derived fat percentage of the tissue correlated with the assigned steatosis score of the NAS (and SAF) systems, as expected (Spearman’s rho correlation coefficient rs = 0.53, P < 2.2e-16, Extended Data Fig. 2d). The derived PSR-positive percentage of the tissue also correlated with both NASH-CRN (Spearman’s rho correlation coefficient rs = 0.61, P < 2.2e-16, Extended Data Fig. 2e) and modified Ishak (Spearman’s rho correlation coefficient rs = 0.61, P < 2.2e-16, Extended Data Fig. 2f) assigned scores.
Association of fibrosis stage with all-cause mortality and liver-related outcomes
The extensive annotation of individual case timelines with clinical data, anchored by the specimen date and retrieved from the EHR and national datasets, allowed the relationship between data derived from the histological sections and patient outcomes to be examined. Using the 659 needle biopsy cases only, the clear and expected relationship between assigned NASH-CRN fibrosis stage and all-cause mortality was observed (Fig. 1d). Stepwise increases in mortality were evident through progression from stages F0 to F4. An unbiased algorithmic approach to cluster survival curves19 created two clusters (F0,1,2) and (F3,4), supporting the hypothesis that fibrous bridging of vascular structures is a critical pathophysiological event with prognostic importance in progressive fibrogenesis.
Standard Cox regression modelling of all-cause mortality using age at biopsy, sex, and NASH-CRN fibrosis stage as covariates showed that age and NASH-CRN fibrosis stage F4 were independently associated with higher all-cause mortality (Supplementary Table 3).
SteatoSITE is a secondary care, outcome-enriched cohort. The annotated patient timeline of 291 cases, including 183 of 659 biopsy cases, contained an outcome coding for at least one of the events defined by expert consensus to represent decompensation in cirrhotic patients20 or using UK Operations/Procedure (OPCS4) coding data identifying activity relating to cirrhosis-related hospital admissions21. This high number of events contrasts with a recently published prospective observational study12. Using the 106 cases where an event coding related to decompensation was not present on the patient timeline prior to the biopsy, F3 and F4 NASH-CRN fibrosis stage was predictive of subsequent decompensation (Fig. 1e). Kaplan-Meier estimator curves for liver-related events (excluding death) associated with F0, F1, and F2 were placed in the same cluster by an unbiased clustering approach, but those associated with F3 and F4 were distinct.
Cox regression modelling of hepatic decompensation events on the cause-specific hazard, with death as a competing risk, using age at biopsy, sex, and NASH-CRN fibrosis stage showed that NASH-CRN fibrosis stages F3 and F4 were associated with increased decompensation events (Supplementary Table 4); Fine-Gray regression for the proportional hazards modelling of the subdistribution hazard is also reported. Median intervals to decompensation or censoring (death or end of follow-up) of included cases are shown in Supplementary Table 5.
Finally, the development of HCC is a low frequency outcome in NAFLD. The complete SteatoSITE cohort includes 80 patients with a coding of HCC at any point in their annotated timeline. The increased risk of HCC in patients with non-cirrhotic NAFLD is also well-recognised22,23. The SteatoSITE cohort includes 227 resection specimens, with HCC being present in the annotated patient timeline in 44 of these. Notably, 36 of these cases did not have histopathological evidence of cirrhosis in the background liver (Extended Data Fig. 2g). Focusing on the liver biopsy cases where no event coding for HCC was present prior to the biopsy, ten patients received a subsequent coding of HCC within the follow-up period included in the data commons, and assigned NASH-CRN F4 fibrosis stage at biopsy was predictive of the subsequent development of HCC (Fig. 1f).
Overall, these data clearly demonstrate that within the SteatoSITE cohort, liver fibrosis stage is predictive of future all-cause mortality, hepatic decompensation events and HCC development.
Transcriptomic profiling across the NAFLD spectrum uncovers gene signatures for steatohepatitis and fibrosis
The SteatoSITE cohort includes high-quality hepatic RNA-seq data in 707 out of the 940 total cases (comprising 538 biopsies, 39 explants and 130 resections), after applying pre-specified quality control criteria appropriate for archival FFPE samples, including DV200 > 30%24. Overall, larger liver resection tissues yielded poorer RNA quality compared with much smaller needle biopsy specimens, likely related to sample fixation.
Normal liver controls (n = 34) were also included in SteatoSITE for comparative RNA-seq analysis. To confirm the suitability of these control samples, we showed that their transcriptional profile strongly correlated with normal liver samples from independent hepatic RNA-seq datasets25,26 (average Spearman’s correlation rs > 0.9, adjusted P < 2 e-16; Extended Data Fig. 3).
We performed RNA-seq variant calling to detect single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously identified as risk modifiers of NAFLD progression (“rs738409”, “rs72613567”, “rs58542926” and “rs641738” in genes PNPLA3, HSD17B13, TM6SF2 and MBOAT7, respectively). Sequencing coverage of these genes, and therefore the ability to call variants, was variable (Supplementary Table 6). However, the rs738409 C > G p.I148M variant in PNPLA3 (the strongest genetic risk factor for NAFLD and its severity) was successfully called in 646 of 707 samples with RNA sequencing available. The prevalence of GG, GC, and CC genotypes amongst cases where a call was possible was 17.02%, 26.63% and 55.42%, respectively. After controlling for fibrosis stage, genotype status for pre-defined variants had no significant effect on outcomes (data not shown).
For differential gene expression analysis, samples were grouped according to NAS and different fibrosis stages (F0/F1, F2, F3 and F4) and compared with normal liver control samples (Extended Data Fig. 4). The data structure was examined by principal component analysis (PCA). As shown in Fig. 2a, the first two PCs explained 8.86% and 7.94% of the observed variation in gene expression. There was modest segregation according to the fibrosis stage.
When samples were classified according to fibrosis stage, we found 218, 478, 1114 and 2800 differentially expressed protein-coding genes when comparing F0/F1, F2, F3 and F4 liver with normal liver controls, respectively, and 99 genes differentially expressed in common across stages versus controls (Fig. 2b). Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) of the upregulated hepatic genes showed that enriched gene ontology (GO) terms associated with early fibrosis stages included cytokine activity and structural components (Extended Data Fig. 5). A representation in two-dimensional semantic space of the GO terms mapped to those genes differentially expressed in F4 versus control, with selected terms highlighted, is shown in Fig. 2c; this includes GO terms related to the ‘immune system’ in addition to those related to ‘wound healing’. The most differentially expressed genes mapped to GO terms ‘collagen fibril organization’, ‘extracellular matrix assembly’, ‘wound healing’, and ‘vascular wound healing’ are shown in Fig. 2d.
Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathways linked to extracellular matrix were enriched from stage F2 onwards, as expected. Notably, other upregulated pathways were those linked to cardiomyopathies (q < 0.05; Fig. 2e). In contrast, downregulated genes were enriched for pathways associated with signalling, predominantly in early disease (F0/1), and fatty acid metabolism and peroxisome pathways were enriched from F2 to F4 (q < 0.05; Fig. 2f).
When the samples were grouped according to NAS, we identified 203 DEGs when comparing NAS ≤ 2 (“low NAS”) with controls, 621 in the NAS 3–4 group (“borderline NAS”) and 793 in the NAS > 4 group (“high NAS”); 182 genes were shared across all NAS groups (Extended Data Fig. 6a). GSEA revealed, among others, significantly enriched GO terms that participate in ‘translation’ and the ‘immune system’ (q < 0.05; Extended Data Fig. 6b-d).
Hence, the SteatoSITE data commons enables a comparison of whole liver gene expression profiles according to histological disease stage. To maximise the accessibility and utility of this resource, we developed an open-access gene browser (https://shiny.igc.ed.ac.uk/SteatoSITE_gene_explorer/), allowing high-level assessment and visualisations of user-selected gene expression according to fibrosis stage.
Characterisation and predictive value of cell type compositions from SteatoSITE bulk RNA-sequencing data using single-cell deconvolution
Using single-cell RNA-seq (scRNA-seq), we have previously identified distinct populations of scar-associated monocyte-derived macrophages, mesenchymal cells and endothelial cells which populate the fibrotic niche in patients with advanced cirrhosis and interact to regulate liver fibrogenesis27. However, the presence of specific pathogenic cellular subpopulations across the full NAFLD disease spectrum and how these cells relate to clinical outcomes remains uncertain. To address this, we performed deconvolution of the bulk RNA-seq SteatoSITE data using a publicly available fully annotated scRNA-seq reference dataset compiled from healthy and cirrhotic patients27 to estimate the proportions of specific hepatic cell types in each SteatoSITE sample and to correlate these with histopathological features and patient outcomes.
This analysis demonstrated that the proportion of hepatic scar-associated macrophages (SAMac), a key regulator of liver fibrosis27, correlated positively with liver fibrosis stage and NASH activity across the full NAFLD spectrum (Fig. 3a). In contrast, tissue resident macrophage (Kupffer cell) proportions declined significantly with more advanced fibrosis (Fig. 3a). We validated these transcriptomic findings at protein level, using a bespoke MultiOmyx liver multiplex immunofluorescence (mIF) assay in an independent NAFLD cohort (n = 43), confirming a significant positive correlation of hepatic HLA-DR+CD9+CD14+ SAMac numbers with liver fibrosis stage (Fig. 3b). Positive correlations between mIF SAMac numbers and NASH steatosis, lobular inflammation and ballooning scores were less pronounced than fibrosis stage (Extended Data Fig. 7a-c), mirroring our findings from the deconvolution analysis (Fig. 3a).
Deconvolution analysis also revealed significant positive correlations between fibrosis and the proportion of scar-associated mesenchymal cells, hepatic arterial endothelial cells, and lymphatic endothelial cells (Fig. 3a), in keeping with the key roles for mesenchymal cell activation and progressive arterialisation of the hepatic microcirculation with loss of normal specialised liver sinusoidal endothelial cell (LSEC) phenotype (“capillarisation”) in the development of liver fibrosis across the full NAFLD spectrum. Interestingly, expansion of plasma cells was also associated with more advanced hepatic fibrosis (Fig. 3a).
Finally, the proportions of cell types, derived by single-cell deconvolution analysis of SteatoSITE bulk RNA-seq data, were examined for their value in predicting adverse clinical outcomes. Strikingly, increased hepatic proportions of SAMac, scar-associated mesenchymal cells, hepatic arterial endothelial cells, lymphatic endothelial and plasma cells were predictive of higher future all-cause mortality (Fig. 3c) and hepatic decompensation events (Fig. 3d). In contrast, higher proportions of more homeostatic liver resident cell types such as vascular smooth muscle cells and LSECs was protective against future mortality or hepatic decompensation (Fig. 3c-d). Hence, in addition to histology and bulk transcriptomics, changes in the cellular composition of the liver may offer key prognostic information in patients with NAFLD.
Construction of a transcriptional risk prediction model for hepatic decompensation events
The annotated patient timelines in SteatoSITE allow predictive tools to be developed. To demonstrate, we used the SteatoSITE RNA-seq data and associated clinical outcomes to develop a novel transcriptome-based risk prediction model for hepatic decompensation. Such transcriptional risk scores (TRSs) based on transcript abundance are physiologically closer to the phenotype of interest, require smaller training samples and offer greater portability across diverse ancestry groups than polygenic risk scores (PRSs) using genomic variants (single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs))28,29.
As the initial feature set, we used the 1127 protein-encoding genes that were differentially expressed in advanced (F3/F4) compared with early (F0/F1) stage disease (P < 0.05, log fold change (FC) ≥ 1). Univariate Cox regression identified 955 DEGs as significantly related to decompensation events (P < 0.01). To develop a sparse feature set, 10 runs of a 10-fold LASSO regularised Cox regression were performed and the coefficients for selected genes were derived (Extended Data Fig. 8a-b). The final TRS predicting hepatic decompensation was composed of the expression of 15 genes: metallothionein-1F (MT1F), potassium voltage-gated channel subfamily H member 7 (KCNH7), collagen alpha-1(XXV) chain (COL25A1), GTP-binding protein Rhes (RASD2), connective tissue growth factor (CTGF), stanniocalcin-1 (STC1), glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF), paired related homeobox 1 (PRRX1), fibroblast growth factor 7 (FGF7), lipocalin like 1 (LCNL1), dipeptidase 1 (DPEP1), chordin like 2 (CHRDL2), LIM homeobox protein 6 (LHX6), POU domain class 4 transcription factor 1 (POU4F1), cadherin 16 (CDH16) (Expression across fibrosis stages as plotted by the SteatoSITE gene browser shown in Extended Data Fig. 9).
The risk scores were calculated using the formula indicated in the Methods. According to the median risk score, patients were split into high- and low-risk groups (Fig. 4a-b, Extended Data Fig. 8c). Interestingly, samples with a higher risk score not only had a higher fibrosis stage but also a higher hepatocyte ballooning score (Fig. 4c). Time-dependent ROC curves were used to assess the predictive ability of the model at specific times after biopsy; the AUROCs were 86.24% (SE 5.11), 80.97% (SE 4.62) and 83.26% (SE 3.86) for 1-, 3- and 5-year risk of decompensation events, respectively (Fig. 4d).
All the biopsy samples could be stratified using the TRS into high- and low-risk groups with significantly different decompensation trajectories. Over post-biopsy follow-up of up to 20 years, those with a high-risk TRS had a cumulative decompensation event probability of over 0.65 compared with a cumulative probability of 0.11 in those with a low-risk TRS (Fig. 4e). Next, to derive additional prognostic information beyond routine fibrosis staging, samples with mild (F0/F1) or advanced (F3/F4) scarring were stratified using the TRS into groups at high- or low-risk of future decompensation (Fig. 4f). Although there were insufficient F3/F4 patients with a low TRS to enable further categorisation of these patients, application of the TRS augmented risk stratification in NASH patients with early-stage fibrosis.
Master regulator analysis identifies thyroid receptor hormone beta as a critical suppressor of disease progression
We sought to further exploit the rich RNA-seq dataset using the high-risk genes identified as prognostically important components of the TRS to derive additional biological understanding of the related transcriptional regulatory network (TRN) in NAFLD. The TRN, consisting of TFs and regulated target genes, was inferred from the whole gene expression dataset. Regulons, a set of genes regulated by a specific TF, were constructed for all TFs catalogued by Lambert et al30. A regulon activity score for each sample was estimated using a two-tailed GSEA approach. Regulons cluster based on activity broadly into two groups, those with high activity in advanced fibrosis and low activity in early stages, and those showing the opposite pattern (Fig. 5a).
To identify which transcriptional networks lay upstream of the expression of high-risk genes representing the TRS, master regulator analysis31 was undertaken to identify the statistical significance of the overlap between the regulon (gene targets) of each TF and the 15 genes of the TRS, corrected for multiple hypothesis testing. Three regulons (gene networks regulated by adipocyte enhancer-binding protein 1 (AEBP1), thyroid hormone receptor beta (THRB), and zinc finger protein basonuclin-2 (BNC2)) contained significantly greater numbers of the TRS genes than expected by chance, suggesting that these three networks may be critical to NAFLD disease progression leading to decompensation events.
To examine the patterns of activity of these regulons during progression of disease stage, the mean activity scores for each regulon from each NASH-CRN fibrosis stage were used as pseudo-timeseries data for unsupervised soft clustering. AEBP2 regulon activity is in a cluster of regulons whose activity is low in F0-2 but increased in F3 and F4 whereas BNC2 regulon activity increases more uniformly from F0 to F4. In contrast, THRB regulon activity is high in F0 and F1 but decreases as scarring progresses from F2 to F4 (Fig. 5b).
The relationship between the inferred AEBP1, THRB, and BNC2 regulons is shown in Fig. 5c, annotated with the direction of regulation of each gene target. Most gene targets for AEBP1 and BNC2 are positively regulated whilst THRB exerts largely negative regulation of gene targets shared with both AEBP1 and BNC2.
Given the potential suppressive role for THRB over disease-promoting core gene targets, and because THRB agonists are in current clinical trials for NASH, we examined THRB regulon activity in more detail. In biopsy cases with no hepatic decompensation prior to biopsy, differential regulon activity was estimated, and the predictive value of THRB regulon activity for decompensation events examined (Fig. 5d). A ranked THRB regulon differential activity plot confirms the negative relationship between THRB regulon activity and disease stage in the biopsy-restricted subset and the Kaplan-Meier plot indicates that lower THRB regulon activity is predictive of hepatic decompensation.
However, the predictive value of THRB regulon activity may merely be through association with disease stage. To determine if THRB regulon activity was predictive of hepatic decompensation within samples of matched fibrosis stages, maximally selected rank statistics were used to determine the optimal THRB regulon activity cutpoint that divided samples into high- and low-risk groups. Using this cutpoint on histologically low-risk samples with F0 and F1 fibrosis, THRB regulon activity identified a subset of NAFLD patients with high risk of hepatic decompensation (Extended Data Fig. 10). Deriving a new cutpoint within only the histologically advanced stages F3 and F4, allowed stratification into two distinct groups with either rapid or slower progression to a decompensation event (Fig. 5e).
The potential for a personalised approach, for clinical trials or routine practice, using estimated THRB regulon activity is illustrated by case studies from the SteatoSITE dataset. Two cases scored F4 (cirrhosis) on PSR-stained sections with high and lower estimated THRB activity are shown in Fig. 5f; the patient with estimated THRB regulon activity below the derived threshold (top) had a coded decompensation event 224 days after biopsy but the patient with THRB activity above the cutpoint (bottom) did not experience a coded decompensation event in over 4500 days of follow-up.
At the other end of the disease stage spectrum, two cases that scored F0 on the PSR-stained sections are shown in Extended Data Fig. 10; the case with high estimated THRB regulon activity derived from RNA-seq (bottom) was not associated with hepatic decompensation whereas the case with low estimated THRB regulon activity (top) was.