1. Effect of partial and complete lockdown on the spread of COVID–19
Out of 28 countries, 16 announced complete lockdown while 12 opted for partial lockdown. Extracted and computed variables were compared with type of lockdown (partial vs complete). Average differences between the variables were not found statistically significant however, it was observed that percentage of critical cases, ratio between cases to tests performed, cases per million and number of cases at the time of lockdown were higher among complete lockdown countries (Table 1). However, number of weekly reported cases were higher among partially lockdown countries compare.
Table 1: Effect of type of lockdown over different parameters
Variables
|
Mean (SE)
|
Complete
|
Partial
|
% Death
|
20.23(5.9)
|
20.0(6.9)
|
% Critical
|
3.28(0.7)
|
2.25(0.7)
|
% cases to test performed
|
12.77(3.1)
|
7.2(1.8)
|
Tests per million
|
11959(4133.6)
|
9270.8(2148.5)
|
Cases per million
|
1171.8(296.9)
|
531.5(173.1)
|
No. of cases at lockdown
|
3813.7(1380.3)
|
2652.9(1573.6)
|
No. of cases during 1st of lockdown
|
6872.9(2390.3)
|
8990.6(6972.6)
|
No. of cases during 2nd of lockdown
|
13431.9(17324.6)
|
20032.8(15559.6)
|
No. of cases during 3rd of lockdown
|
19005.4(6225.5)
|
26859.5(22090.2)
|
No. of deaths at lockdown
|
495.7(429.0)
|
27.2(20.8)
|
No. of deaths during 1st of lockdown
|
873.2(643.5)
|
146.2(118.7)
|
No. of deaths during 2nd of lockdown
|
1843.1(1138.9)
|
556.5(489.9)
|
2. Effect of early decision of complete lockdown on the spread of COVID–19
2.1 Number of days taken to announce lockdown
On average, countries took 35.25 ± 16.6 days to announce complete lockdown. The least time taken by any country to go for lockdown was 15 days and maximum was 67 days. Number of days taken to announce lockdown had strong, direct and significant correlation with total number of reported cases (r = 0.544, p-value = 0.029), number of reported cases when lockdown announced (r = 0.667, p-value = 0.005), number of reported cases during 1st week (r = 0.67, p-value = 0.005) and 2nd week (r = 0.733, p-value = 0.002) of lockdown as well as number of reported deaths when lockdown was announced (r = 0.70, p-value = 0.003).
2.2 Early lockdown in terms of cases
Average number of reported cases at the time of complete lockdown were 3813 (±5521.2) and ranged from 72 cases (minimum) to 19848 cases (maximum). Figure 1 shows the number of cases when complete lockdown was imposed in relation to number of cases after every week of lockdown. Furthermore, the number of reported cases at the time of lockdown announcement was correlated with the other variables, it was found that few variables were strongly and significantly correlated. Cases at lockdown had correlation with no. of cases to test performed (r = 0.57, p-value = 0.21), total present cases (r = 0.868, p-value = 0.000), number of cases during 1st, 2nd, 3rd weeks of lockdown (r = 0.92, p-value = 0.000), (0.857, p-value = 0.000) and (r = 0.699, p-value = 0.011) respectively. Similarly, number of reported deaths during 1st week (r = 0.602, p-value = 0.014) and 2nd week (r = 0.613, p-value = 0.015) of lockdown was significantly correlated with the number of cases when lockdown was announced.