As an emerging monitoring indicator of CHB infection in recent years, HBcrAg has shown its broad potential in many fields. HBcrAg is a product of translation and transcription that occurs in actively replicating CHB patients, and is a composite component of HBcAg, HBeAg, and p22cr. Although the contribution of these three components to the results has not been fully evaluated, HBeAg is dominant in HBeAg-positive patients17, 39. HBcrAg, which is an ELISA assay consisting of a mixture of the viral precore/core gene products, is strongly correlated with cccDNA, HBsAg transcriptional activity, HBV RNA and DNA, and serves as a reliable surrogate marker of viral replication16, 40. Studies have shown that HBcrAg level can be used to distinguish chronic infection from hepatitis. There was a significant difference in HBcrAg levels between HBeAg-negative inactive/quiescent carrier (ENQ) patients and HBeAg-negative hepatitis (ENH) patients in all four phases of HBV infection, and HBcrAg levels were more predictive than quantitative HBsAg of ENQ patients versus ENH patients41. With an AUROC of 0.70, HBcrAg > 9.25 logU/mL can also differentiate chronic infection from chronic hepatitis in HBeAg positive patients42. Additionally, HBcrAg has shown significant advantages in predicting clinical outcomes, such as HBeAg seroconversion, virological response to treatment with NAs and/or PEG-IFN, HBsAg loss, virological relapse and clinical relapse43–45.
For patients with CHB infection, progression to cirrhosis and HCC is a common clinical outcome. In this process, it is particularly important to identify the high risk of HCC in patients as early as possible and give timely intervention. However, there is no consensus on the prognostic predictors of HCC in patients with CHB infection, although there are many predictive models, such as REAL-B and CAMD data models46. At present, the research on the clinical application of HBcrAg mainly focuses on four aspects: assisting clinical staging of CHB patients, predicting clinical outcomes, exploring the relationship with other biomarkers, and guiding clinical practice with other markers. First, in all CHB stages, serum HBcrAg level correlates with serum HBV DNA. HBcrAg can still be used as a dominant indicator to detect HBV reactivation, cirrhosis and HCC in patients who achieve “functional cure” without detection of serum HBV DNA and HBsAg. For the foreseeable future, improving the prognosis of CHB patients by comparing long-term outcomes of HBcrAg-positive and HBcrAg-negative patients may be the main research focus. Additionally, due to the development of potential therapeutic agents that eliminate intrahepatic cccDNA, monitoring HBcrAg might be an appropriate way of evaluating therapeutic effects and clinical outcomes47. Therefore, this meta-analysis is devoted to exploring the predictive value of serum HBcrAg in predicting the occurrence and recurrence of HCC in patients with CHB, to broaden the application of HBcrAg.
According to our meta-analysis, a significant correlation was observed between HBcrAg and the occurrence of HCC in CHB patients. However, clinical studies use different cutoff values for HBcrAg, which makes it difficult to unify them. Therefore, we took the 4.0 logU/ml of each included literature as the cut-off value for the subgroup analysis. The results showed that the cut-off value > 4.0 logU/ml was more significant for the occurrence of HCC. There is evidence that higher expression levels of HBcrAg increase the risk of HCC. Multiple factors need to be considered in future clinical studies in order to establish a value.
As mentioned above, the test results of serum HBcrAg containing three components in HBeAg-positive patients are dominated by HBeAg. Therefore, the current research on HBcrAg focuses on its predictive value in HBeAg-negative patients. At present, studies have confirmed that with HBcrAg, patients with HBeAg-negative CHB can be identified accurately single-point, regardless of HBV genotype, with high diagnostic performance48. Several cohorts in the included literatures have concluded that HBcrAg is an excellent biomarker in predicting the risk of HCC in HBeAg-negative patients, and it is independent of NAs treatment. Regardless of whether patients with high HBcrAg levels achieved a negative HBV DNA status during NA treatment, NA treatment did not prevent the occurrence of HCC24, 27, 29. We also included two studies using a more sensitive serum HBcrAg detection method (iTACT-HBcrAg). The lower limit of serum HBcrAg detected by the traditional HBcrAg analysis method is 2.8 logU/ml, and this highly sensitive method can extend it to 2.1 logU/ml49. According to Suzuki F.’s research, iTACT-HBcrAg assay is an ultra-highly sensitive assay useful for monitoring, because it is less affected by coexisting antibodies in the patients34. The majority of research on HBcrAg is concentrated in East Asia, and further studies, especially in Europe and North America, are recommended to verify whether HBcrAg is a reliable predictor of HCC occurrence and recurrence in CHB.
Our meta-analysis provides a more comprehensive overview based on current data on the predictive value of serum HBcrAg in the pathogenesis of HCC in patients with CHB. These data point the way to future development of therapeutic strategies to improve clinical outcomes of patients with CHB. However, our research still has limitations. First, there are too few research exploring the association between the recurrence of HCC and HBcrAg to carry out a systematic meta-analysis, so more studies are needed to confirm these findings. Second, although we conducted a subgroup analysis, significant heterogeneity still existed in some subgroups. In the discussion section, we attributed it to the bias of patient selection in different studies. Third, because we only selected English literature and excluded other language literature, this inevitably leads to some publication bias. Fourth, the original research on the definition of HBcrAg threshold cannot reach a unified consensus, which is also the difficulty of the research. Further clinical trials are needed to formulate reasonable norms for clinical application.