Spatial distributions of UTCI
Figure 1 shows the spatial distributions of the universal thermal climate index (UTCI) with the spatial resolution of 1m in different cities in the current weather situation of the year 2017. Different cities have different levels of outdoor heat exposure level in the hottest month. Generally, in cities of Boston, Chicago, Seattle, San Francisco, Philadelphia, New York City, San Diego, the heat stress levels are moderate based on the simulation results that use current meteorological parameters inputs, since the maximum average UTCI in the hottest month is lower than 32 ºC, which is the threshold of strong heat stress. Cities of Baltimore, Washington, DC, Dallas, Atlanta, Los Angeles, Houston, and Miami have peak daily UTCI values larger than the strong stress threshold of 32 ºC. Please note that this is the averaged UTCI from 8 am to 5 pm every day in the hottest month, which smooths the highest UTCI values in one day. For Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston, the averaged UTCI for the whole cities are higher than 32 ºC, and some parts of the cities even experience UTCI higher than 38 ºC, which is considered as very strong heat stress level.
Fig. 2 shows the spatial distribution of the aggregated UTCI at the census tract level using the mean values by masking out the building roof pixels since the building roofs are generally not frequented by people.
Sensitivity analysis of heat stress level to a 1 ºC air temperature increase
Figure 3 shows the histograms of the UTCI values based on the current meteorological parameters input and in the scenario of 1 ºC air temperature increase in different cities at the pixel level. All cities have skewed distributions of UTCI to the high values, except for Atlanta. With 1 ºC air temperature increase, the histograms shift toward higher heat stress level for all cities. The shapes of the histograms of the UTCI in different cities also show that different cities may have different susceptibility levels to the potential extreme heat events. For cities with histograms more skewed to higher UTCI value, larger areas will be exposed to higher heat stress as the air temperature increases. This is especially for true Chicago, Seattle, San Diego, and Los Angeles. Although the UTCI values are not very high in those cities, most pixels are in the far-right side of the histograms. This means that as the air temperature increases, most of those cities would be exposed to strong heat stress. Atlanta is different from other cities in that most pixels are in the left side of the histogram. This is because of the large tree canopy coverage (more than 46%) in the city. However, in Atlanta most pixels have UTCI values higher than 32 ºC, which indicates the city is experiencing strong heat stress in the hottest month. Although the large tree canopy covers help to lower the heat exposure level in Atlanta, the general heat exposure level is still too high for human thermal comfort. Therefore, other measures need to be taken to mitigate outdoor heat exposure level in Atlanta.
Table 1 presents the numbers and percentages of population that are exposed to strong heat stress (UTCI larger than 32 ºC) in different cities in the current situation and the scenario of air temperature 1 degree higher. In the current situation, about 89.6% of residents in Washington, D.C, 79.3% of residents in Los Angeles, 100% residents in Dallas, 100% residents in Houston, 100% residents in Atlanta, 97.1% residents in Miami, 32.9% residents in Baltimore are exposed to strong heat stress. In the scenario of 1 ºC higher air temperature, almost all residents in those cities are exposed to strong heat stress. For Dallas, about 11.3% residents are experiencing very strong heat stress with UTCI higher than 38 ºC and for Houston, about 7.3% of residents are experiencing very strong heat stress (UTCI larger than 38 ºC). For cities of New York City, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, Philadelphia, San Francisco, San Diego, no census tracts have UTCI higher than 32 ºC in the current climate setting. However, in the scenario of 1 ºC higher air temperature, small population in Boston and San Diego starts to experience strong heat stress.
Table 1
The number and percentage of residents experiencing strong heat stress (UTCI higher than 32 ºC) in the current weather setting and 1 ºC higher air temperature in different cities.
Cities
|
Population exposed to strong heat stress (UTCI higher than 32 ºC)
|
Current weather setting
|
Air temperature increases by 1 ºC
|
Population number
|
Percentage
|
Population number
|
Percentage
|
Boston
|
0
|
0
|
1,020
|
0.2%
|
Chicago
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Seattle
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
San Francisco
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Philadelphia
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Washington, DC
|
613,127
|
89.6%
|
680,305
|
99.4%
|
Baltimore
|
202,008
|
32.9%
|
585,324
|
95.2%
|
New York City
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Dallas
|
1,501,499
|
100%
|
1,501,499
|
100%
|
Atlanta
|
479,854
|
100%
|
479,854
|
100%
|
San Diego
|
0
|
0
|
10,817
|
0.7%
|
Los Angeles
|
3,259,731
|
79.3%
|
3,259,731
|
100%
|
Houston
|
4,774,220
|
100%
|
4,774,220
|
100%
|
Miami
|
439,885
|
97.1%
|
453,211
|
100%
|
Correlations between the UTCI and socioeconomic and racial/ethnic variables
Figure 4 shows the correlation coefficients of the UTCI and different socioeconomic and racial/ethnic variables in different cities. Generally, the per capita income has a significant and negative correlation with the UTCI in all cities except Atlanta, Seattle, Baltimore, and Boston. The proportion of non-Hispanic Whites has a significant and negative correlation with the UTCI in New York City, Los Angeles, Houston, Miami, Chicago, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and San Diego, while for other cities, there is no significant correlations. The proportion of Hispanics has significant and positive correlation with the UTCI in cities of New York City, Los Angeles, Houston, Miami, Chicago, Philadelphia, and San Diego. The proportion of African Americans generally has no significant correlation with the UTCI, except the significant and positive correlation in cities of New York City, Los Angeles, and San Diego. The proportion of Asian Americans has significant and positive correlation with the UTCI in cities of Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, and San Francisco, while there is no significant correlation in the other cities. The educational variables have relatively consistent correlation with the UTCI in different cities, as neighborhoods with more people of higher education have lower UTCI, and neighborhoods with higher proportion of people without high school degree tend to have higher UTCI. However, such correlations are not significant for all cities. The portion of people under 18 years of age has a significant and positive correlation with the UTCI for New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, and San Francisco, while in Atlanta, Seattle the correlation is negative. There is no significant correlation for the other cities. The proportion of people older than 65 has a consistently and significantly negative correlation with UTCI in cities of Washington, D.C, New York City, Los Angeles, Dallas, Houston, Chicago, Baltimore, Boston, Philadelphia, and San Diego, while there is no significant correlation for the other cities.
Regression analysis results
Figure 5 shows the regression analysis results of the UTCI and different socioeconomic and racial/ethnic variables in different cities. The per capita income has a significant and negative association with the UTCI in cities of Washington, D.C, New York City, Los Angeles, Dallas, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and San Diego. However, in Chicago, the per capita income has a significant and positive association with the UTCI. The per capita income has no significant association with the UTCI in Houston, Seattle, Miami, Baltimore, Boston, and San Francisco. However, after controlling the spatial autocorrelation in the residuals of the OLS, the per capita income has a consistently and significantly negative association with the UTCI in most cities, except cities of Seattle, Miami, Chicago, Baltimore, and Boston.
In the OLS model, the proportion of Hispanics has a mixed association with the UTCI in different cities. For example, in cities of New York City and Dallas, the proportion of Hispanics has a significant and negative association with the UTCI, while for the cities of Los Angeles, Houston, Miami, Chicago, Baltimore, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and San Diego, the proportion of Hispanics has a significant and positive association with the UTCI. There is no significant association between the UTCI and proportion of Hispanics in cities of Washington, D.C, Atlanta, Seattle, and Boston. After controlling the spatial autocorrelation, the proportion of Hispanics has a consistently and significantly positive associations with the UTCI in cities of Los Angeles, Houston, Atlanta, Miami, Chicago, Philadelphia, and San Diego, while for the other cities, there is no significant association.
The proportion of African Americans has a mixed association with the UTCI in different cities. In the OLS regression model, the proportion of African Americans has a significant and positive association with UTCI in Los Angeles, Houston, Miami, Chicago, and San Francisco, while the proportion of African Americans has a significantly negative association with UTCI in cities of Dallas, Atlanta, and Boston. There is no significant association between the proportion of African Americans and UTCI in other cities. After controlling the spatial autocorrelation, the proportion of African Americans has significant and positive association with UTCI in Los Angeles, Houston, and Chicago, but negative and significant association with UTCI in Boston. For all other cities, there is no significant association between the proportion of African Americans and UTCI.
The proportion of Asian Americans has a consistently and significantly positive association with the UTCI in cities of Los Angeles, Dallas, Houston, Seattle, Miami, Chicago, and San Francisco, while for the rest cities, there is no such significant association. After controlling the spatial autocorrelation, the proportion of Asian Americans still have a relatively consistent and significantly positive association with the UTCI in cities of New York City, Los Angeles, Dallas, Houston, and Chicago.