General clinical characteristics
142 consecutive patients with confirmed COVID-19 were included in this study. The mean age was 49.10±16.36 years, 55 (38.73%) patients were men. Hypertension (37, 26.06%), diabetes (12, 8.45%), hepatic disease (10, 7.04%) and chronic lung disease (9, 6.34%) were the most common comorbidities. Fever (84, 59.15%) was the leading initial symptom, followed by cough (61, 42.96%), expectoration (32, 22.54%) and fatigue (27, 19.01%). There were still 18 cases (12.68%) showed no obvious symptoms when admission. All included patients received antivirals treatment, besides, 88 (61.97%), 53 (37.32%) and 52 (36.62%) patients were treated with gamma globulin, oxygen and antibiotics, respectively.
Among the 142 patients, 125 (88.03%) patients (19 mild and 106 moderate) were classified into the non-severe group, and 17 (11.97%) patients (14 severe and 3 critical) were categorized as the severe group. There were significant differences in age (56.88±11.61 years vs 48.04±16.66 years, P=0.010), body mass index (BMI) (26.13±5.47 kg/m2 vs 23.50±3.42 kg/m2, P=0.007), hypertension (9 [52.94%] vs 28 [22.40%], P=0.007) and fever (14 [82.35%] vs 70 [56.00%], P=0.038) between the severe and non-severe groups. As for clinical treatment, there were higher proportion in the severe group who received glucocorticoids, antibiotics, oxygen, invasive mechanical ventilation and intensive care unit treatment when compared with the non-severe group (Table 1).
Table 1
General clinical characteristics of patients with confirmed COVID-19.
Variables
|
All patients (n=142)
|
Non-severe group (n=125)
|
Severe group (n=17)
|
P value
|
Age (years)
|
49.10±16.36
|
48.04±16.66
|
56.88±11.61
|
0.010
|
Men (%)
|
55 (38.73)
|
47 (37.60)
|
8 (47.06)
|
0.453
|
Body mass index (kg/m2)
|
23.81±3.80
|
23.50±3.42
|
26.13±5.47
|
0.007
|
Comorbidities (%)
|
|
|
|
|
Diabetes
|
12 (8.45)
|
11 (8.80)
|
1 (5.88)
|
>0.999
|
Hypertension
|
37 (26.06)
|
28 (22.40)
|
9 (52.94)
|
0.007
|
Cardiovascular disease
|
6 (4.23)
|
4 (3.20)
|
2 (11.76)
|
>0.999
|
Hepatic disease
|
10 (7.04)
|
6 (4.80)
|
4 (23.53)
|
0.131
|
Chronic lung disease
|
9 (6.34)
|
7 (5.60)
|
2 (11.76)
|
0.654
|
Cancer
|
5 (3.52)
|
4 (3.20)
|
1 (5.88)
|
>0.999
|
Initial symptoms (%)
|
|
|
|
|
Fever
|
84 (59.15)
|
70 (56.00)
|
14 (82.35)
|
0.038
|
Nasal congestion
|
6 (4.23)
|
5 (4.00)
|
1 (5.88)
|
>0.999
|
Sore throat
|
18 (12.68)
|
16 (12.80)
|
2 (11.76)
|
>0.999
|
Headache/ Dizziness
|
10 (7.04)
|
9 (7.20)
|
1 (5.88)
|
>0.999
|
Chill
|
17 (11.9)
|
13 (10.4)
|
4 (23.53)
|
0.243
|
Dry mouth
|
1 (0.70)
|
0 (0.00)
|
1 (5.88)
|
0.120
|
Fatigue
|
27 (19.01)
|
24 (19.20)
|
3 (17.65)
|
>0.999
|
Nausea
|
3 (2.11)
|
2 (1.60)
|
1 (5.88)
|
0.320
|
Myalgia
|
10 (7.04)
|
9 (7.20)
|
1 (5.88)
|
>0.999
|
Chest distress
|
6 (4.23)
|
4 (3.20)
|
2 (11.76)
|
0.315
|
Cough
|
61 (42.96)
|
51(40.80)
|
10 (58.82)
|
0.159
|
Expectoration
|
32 (22.54)
|
27 (21.60)
|
5 (29.41)
|
0.670
|
Diarrhea
|
5 (3.52)
|
5 (4.00)
|
0 (0.00)
|
>0.999
|
Anosmia
|
2 (1.41)
|
2 (1.60)
|
0 (0.00)
|
>0.999
|
No obvious symptoms
|
18 (12.68)
|
18 (14.40)
|
0 (0.00)
|
0.199
|
Treatment (%)
|
|
|
|
|
Gamma globulin
|
88 (61.97)
|
78 (62.40)
|
10 (58.82)
|
0.776
|
Glucocorticoids
|
23 (16.20)
|
9 (7.20)
|
14 (82.35)
|
<0.001
|
Antibiotics
|
52 (36.62)
|
40 (32.00)
|
12 (70.59)
|
0.002
|
Antivirals
|
142 (100)
|
125 (100.00)
|
17 (100.00)
|
>0.999
|
Oxygen inhalation
|
53 (37.32)
|
36 (28.80)
|
17 (100.00)
|
<0.001
|
Invasive mechanical ventilation
|
2 (1.41)
|
0 (0.00)
|
2 (11.76)
|
0.014
|
Intensive care unit admission
|
3 (2.11)
|
0 (0.00)
|
3 (17.65)
|
0.001
|
ECMO
|
1 (0.70)
|
0 (0.00)
|
1 (5.88)
|
0.120
|
Data are presented as mean ± standard deviation or n (%).
P value indicated the comparison between the non-severe group and severe group.
COVID-19: coronavirus disease 2019, ECMO: extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. |
Baseline laboratory parameters
The baseline laboratory parameters were obtained within 5 days of admission. Compared with those in the non-severe group, patients in the severe group had a higher level of neutrophil%, fibrinogen, activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-10 (IL-10), interferon-γ (INF-γ), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and lactic dehydrogenase (LDH), and a lower level of lymphocyte%, lymphocyte count, platelet count, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1) and albumin (ALB). There were no significant differences in white blood cell (WBC) count, neutrophil count, red blood cell (RBC) count, hemoglobin, D-dimer, prothrombin time (PT), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), interleukin-2 (IL-2), interleukin-4 (IL-4), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), triglyceride (TG), apolipoprotein B (ApoB), lipoprotein (a), total bilirubin (TBil), Direct bilirubin (DBIL), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), blood uric acid (BUA) and serum creatinine (Scr) between the two groups (Table 2).
Table 2
Baseline laboratory parameters of patients with confirmed COVID-19
Variables
|
All patients (n=142)
|
Non-severe group (n=125)
|
Severe group (n=17)
|
P value
|
WBC count (×109)
|
5.10 (4.20-6.80)
|
5.10 (4.25-6.70)
|
5.30 (4.15-7.35)
|
0.806
|
Neutrophil% (%)
|
66.25 (58.33-74.50)
|
65.70 (57.70-73.15)
|
73.00 (65.15-88.55)
|
0.005
|
Lymphocyte% (%)
|
24.45 (18.50-32.65)
|
25.80 (19.05-33.15)
|
19.20 (8.55-22.40)
|
0.004
|
Neutrophil count (×109)
|
3.31 (2.48-4.39)
|
3.27 (2.48-4.30)
|
3.72 (2.38-6.22)
|
0.295
|
Lymphocyte count (×109)
|
1.23 (0.87-1.61)
|
1.30 (0.91-1.66)
|
0.74 (0.48-1.16)
|
0.001
|
Platelet count (×109)
|
205.50 (155.75-252.25)
|
212.00 (165.00-256.00)
|
152.00 (120.50-205.00)
|
0.004
|
RBC count (×1012)
|
4.48 (4.18-4.93)
|
4.50 (4.22-4.90)
|
4.32 (3.93-5.17)
|
0.660
|
Hemoglobin (g/L)
|
135.50 (125.00-143.25)
|
136.00 (125.50-143.00)
|
131.00 (121.00-151.00)
|
0.875
|
D-dimer (ng/ml) *
|
100.00 (75.00-163.22)
|
100.00 (75.00-159.00)
|
158.00 (73.00-245.00)
|
0.247
|
Fibrinogen (mg/dl)
|
430.50 (370.75-561.00)
|
429.00 (362.00-538.50)
|
574.30 (406.30-662.00)
|
0.012
|
Prothrombin time (s)
|
12.50 (11.50-12.70)
|
12.00 (11.50-12.60)
|
12.70 (11.55-13.50)
|
0.121
|
Activated partial thromboplastin time (s)
|
32.45 (30.45-35.80)
|
32.30 (30.30-35.40)
|
34.80 (32.05-41.00)
|
0.048
|
Erythrocyte sedimentation rate (mm/h) #
|
68.00 (41.00-96.00)
|
68.00 (38.00-93.25)
|
82.00 (57.50-104.50)
|
0.152
|
C-reactive protein (mg/L)
|
8.20 (1.64-28.82)
|
4.95 (1.26-25.41)
|
43.95 (15.36-71.79)
|
<0.001
|
Interleukin-2 (pg/ml)
|
0.90 (0.56-1.47)
|
0.90 (0.56-1.48)
|
0.91 (0.49-1.51)
|
0.725
|
Interleukin-4 (pg/ml)
|
1.85 (1.17-2.50)
|
1.85 (1.17-2.50)
|
1.99 (1.06-2.63)
|
0.688
|
Interleukin-6 (pg/ml)
|
3.79 (1.87-11.66)
|
3.66 (1.84-8.57)
|
24.11 (11.45-51.38)
|
<0.001
|
Interleukin-10 (pg/ml)
|
3.00 (2.02-4.60)
|
2.98 (1.91-4.39)
|
6.39 (2.89-9.55)
|
0.001
|
Interferon-γ (pg/ml)
|
1.19 (0.87-1.62)
|
1.16 (0.84-1.51)
|
1.96 (1.27-2.54)
|
<0.001
|
Tumor necrosis factor-α (pg/ml)
|
1.34 (0.98-1.69)
|
1.34 (0.97-1.69)
|
1.48 (1.17-1.73)
|
0.377
|
Total cholesterol (mmol/L)
|
4.02 (3.57-4.55)
|
4.08 (3.69-4.63)
|
3.58 (3.06-3.85)
|
0.003
|
Triglyceride (mmol/L)
|
1.42 (0.95-2.00)
|
1.44 (0.98-2.00)
|
1.22 (0.83-2.29)
|
0.540
|
HDL-C (mmol/L)
|
1.08 (0.90-1.27)
|
1.09 (0.91-1.29)
|
0.93 (0.82-1.00)
|
0.020
|
LDL-C (mmol/L)
|
2.50 (2.15-2.81)
|
2.54 (2.18-2.85)
|
2.21 (1.93-2.49)
|
0.024
|
Apolipoprotein A1 (g/L)
|
1.20 (1.09-1.31)
|
1.22 (1.12-1.34)
|
0.98 (0.89-1.08)
|
<0.001
|
Apolipoprotein B (g/L)
|
0.81 (0.70-0.93)
|
0.81 (0.71-0.94)
|
0.76 (0.66-0.86)
|
0.223
|
Lipoprotein (a) (mg/L)
|
89.45 (47.20-147.27)
|
87.15 (47.75-161.15)
|
94.45 (36.55-135.40)
|
0.794
|
Albumin (g/L)
|
41.45 (38.13-44.85)
|
41.90 (38.85-45.20)
|
37.30 (32.10-41.25)
|
<0.001
|
Total bilirubin (μmol/L)
|
9.20 (6.70-13.65)
|
9.10 (6.70-13.60)
|
11.60 (7.30-14.35)
|
0.321
|
Direct bilirubin (μmol/L)
|
3.30 (2.40-4.30)
|
3.20 (2.35-4.15)
|
3.80 (3.15-6.15)
|
0.069
|
Aspartate aminotransferase (IU/L)
|
23.00 (17.00-29.00)
|
22.00 (17.00-28.00)
|
28.00 (19.50-40.50)
|
0.036
|
Alanine aminotransferase (IU/L)
|
21.00 (14.00-31.00)
|
20.00 (14.00-31.00)
|
26.00 (18.00-41.50)
|
0.089
|
Lactic dehydrogenase (IU/L)
|
216.00 (175.00-248.25)
|
212.00 (173.50-239.50)
|
245.00 (209.50-350.00)
|
0.006
|
Blood urea nitrogen (mmol/L)
|
4.23 (3.33-5.04)
|
4.22 (3.29-5.02)
|
4.58 (3.62-5.35)
|
0.259
|
Blood uric acid (μmol/L)
|
267.75 (215.82-346.52)
|
276.50 (220.35-344.95)
|
253.80 (193.40-379.40)
|
0.572
|
Serum creatinine (μmol/L)
|
57.35 (48.45-70.60)
|
57.30 (48.40-70.55)
|
64.40 (47.60-82.35)
|
0.483
|
Data are presented as medians and inter-quartile ranges.
P value indicated the comparison between the non-severe group and severe group.
* 107 cases in the non-severe group and 11 cases in the severe group tested D-dimer.
# 98 cases in the non-severe group and 13 cases the non-severe group tested erythrocyte sedimentation rate.
COVID-19: coronavirus disease 2019, WBC: white blood cell, RBC: red blood cell, HDL-C: high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, LDL-C: low-density lipoprotein cholesterol.
|
Risk factors of the severity of COVID-19
The univariate logistic analysis showed that age, BMI, hypertension, neutrophil%, lymphocyte%, lymphocyte count, platelet count, fibrinogen, aPTT, CRP, IL-6, IL-10, HDL-C, ApoA1, ALB, AST and LDH were associated with the severity of COVID-19. However, only IL-6 (odds ratio [OR]: 1.097, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.034-1.165, P=0.002) and ApoA1 (OR: 0.865, 95% CI: 0.800-0.935, P<0.001) were recognized as independent risk factors by multivariate logistic analysis (Table 3).
Table 3
Logistic regression of risk factors for the severity of COVID-19
Variables
|
Univariate analysis
|
Multivariate analysis
|
OR
|
95%CI
|
P value
|
OR
|
95%CI
|
P value
|
Age (years)
|
10.038
|
1.002-1.075
|
0.041
|
|
|
|
Body mass index (kg/m2)
|
1.186
|
1.041-1.351
|
0.010
|
|
|
|
Hypertension
|
3.897
|
1.376-11.033
|
0.010
|
|
|
|
Neutrophil% (%)
|
1.071
|
1.022-1.123
|
0.004
|
|
|
|
Lymphocyte% (%)
|
0.924
|
0.872-0.978
|
0.007
|
|
|
|
Lymphocyte count (×109)
|
0.154
|
0.043-0.549
|
0.004
|
|
|
|
Platelet count (×109)
|
0.988
|
0.979-0.998
|
0.015
|
|
|
|
Fibrinogen (mg/dl)
|
1.005
|
1.001-1.008
|
0.005
|
|
|
|
Activated partial thromboplastin time (s)
|
1.083
|
0.997-1.176
|
0.060
|
|
|
|
C-reactive protein (mg/L)
|
1.03
|
1.013-1.046
|
<0.001
|
|
|
|
Interleukin-6 (pg/ml)
|
1.096
|
1.050-1.144
|
<0.001
|
1.097
|
1.034-1.165
|
0.002
|
Interleukin-10 (pg/ml)
|
1.121
|
1.020-1.231
|
0.017
|
|
|
|
Interferon-γ (pg/ml)
|
0.996
|
0.955-1.038
|
0.840
|
|
|
|
Total cholesterol (mmol/L)
|
0.558
|
0.288-1.081
|
0.084
|
|
|
|
HDL-C (mmol/L)
|
0.088
|
0.008-0.931
|
0.043
|
|
|
|
LDL-C (mmol/L)
|
0.591
|
0.258-1.352
|
0.213
|
|
|
|
Apolipoprotein A1 (mg/dl)
|
0.885
|
0.839-0.934
|
<0.001
|
0.865
|
0.800-0.935
|
<0.001
|
Albumin (g/L)
|
0.791
|
0.700-0.893
|
<0.001
|
|
|
|
Aspartate aminotransferase (IU/L)
|
1.036
|
1.006-1.066
|
0.016
|
|
|
|
Lactic dehydrogenase (IU/L)
|
1.009
|
1.003-1.016
|
0.003
|
|
|
|
COVID-19: coronavirus disease 2019, OR: odd ratio, CI: confidence interval, HDL-C: high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, LDL-C: low-density lipoprotein cholesterol |
A risk model was established upon ApoA1 and IL-6. For predicting the severity of COVID-19, the area under ROC curves (AUROCs) for ApoA1, IL-6 and risk model were 0.896 (95% CI: 0.834-0.941), 0.855 (95% CI: 0.786-0.908) and 0.977(95% CI: 0.932-0.995), respectively (Figure 1, Table 4).
Table 4
Predictive performance of apolipoprotein A1, interleukin-6 and risk model for the severity of COVID-19
Variables
|
AUROC
(95% CI)
|
Cut-off value
|
Sensitivity %
(95% CI)
|
Specificity %
(95% CI)
|
PPV % (95%CI)
|
NPV % (95%CI)
|
Apolipoprotein A1
|
0.896
(0.834-0.941)
|
1.09 g/L
|
94.12
(71.20-99.00)
|
80.80
(72.80-87.30)
|
40.00
(24.90-56.70)
|
99.00
(94.60-99.80)
|
Interleukin-6
|
0.855
(0.786-0.908)
|
9.65 pg/ml
|
88.24
(63.50-98.20)
|
77.60
(69.30-84.60)
|
34.90
(21.00-50.90)
|
98.00
(92.90-99.70)
|
Risk model
|
0.977
(0.932-0.995)
|
/
|
100.00
(80.30-100.00)
|
88.89
(81.40-94.10)
|
58.60
(38.90-76.50)
|
100.00
(96.20-100.00)
|
COVID-19: coronavirus disease 2019, PPV: Positive predictive value, NPV: Negative predictive value |
Correlation analyses showed that ApoA1 positively correlated with lymphocyte count (r=0.257, P=0.002), HDL-C (r=0.681, P<0.001) and ALB (r=0.412, P<0.001), while negatively correlated with fibrinogen (r=0.227, P=0.001), CRP (r=-0.337, P<0.001) and AST (r=-0.240, P=0.004). No correlations were found between ApoA1 and age, hypertension, neutrophil count, platelet count, IL-6, IL-10 and ALT (Figure 2).
Dynamic change of ApoA1
The baseline ApoA1 in the severe group was significantly lower than that in the non-severe group (P<0.001). While, the ApoA1 level in the severe group elevated during the treatment (P<0.001), but it was not found in the non-severe group (P=0.223). In the recovery stage of COVID-19, no significant difference was found between the two groups (P=0.560) (Figure 3).