Baseline clinicopathological characteristics
Detailed data on family history was available from 262 patients. Among them, 69 (26.3%) patients presented with first-degree family history of any cancer, 37 (14.1%) patients with affected second-degree relatives, and 5 (1.9%) patients with affected third-degree relatives (Fig. 1). In total, 25 patients (9.5%) were at high Ontario risk, 17 patients (6.5%) had high Manchester risk, and 21 patients (8.0%) showed high Pedigree risk. We found an inverse correlation between age and Ontario risk score (p = 0.037) as well as Pedigree risk score (p = 0.011), and a positive correlation between BMI and Manchester risk score (p = 0.009). However, none of these classical family history scores were related to the pathological features of tumors (Supplementary Table 1).
We applied the NeoFHS system to all patients for investigating its relationship with tumor features. It suggested that higher T stage (p = 0.048), ER negativity (p = 0.001), PR negativity (p = 0.036), and HER2 positivity (p = 0.013) were associated with higher NeoFHS. Besides, patients with HER2-enriched breast cancer were more likely to present with higher NeoFHS, while those with luminal-like tumors tended to have lower NeoFHS (p = 0.016). No correlation was detected between NeoFHS and age, menopausal status, nodal stage, Ki67 index, histologic grade, or BMI (Table 2).
Table 2
Baseline clinicopathological characteristics of all patients
Characteristics
|
Total
|
Neo-Family History Score
|
|
|
High, N = 78
|
Low, N = 184
|
p value
|
Age
|
|
|
|
0.686
|
<35
|
23 (8.8%)
|
6 (7.7%)
|
17 (9.2%)
|
|
⩾35
|
239 (91.2%)
|
72 (92.3%)
|
167 (90.8%)
|
|
Median (range)
|
52 (23–71)
|
53 (26–71)
|
50 (23–70)
|
|
Menopausal status
|
|
|
|
0.066
|
Premenopausal
|
127 (48.5%)
|
31 (39.7%)
|
96 (52.2%)
|
|
Postmenopausal
|
135 (51.5%)
|
47 (60.3%)
|
88 (47.8%)
|
|
T stage
|
|
|
|
0.048
|
T2
|
56 (21.4%)
|
10 (12.8%)
|
46 (25.0%)
|
|
T3
|
123 (46.9%)
|
37 (47.4%)
|
86 (46.7%)
|
|
T4
|
83 (31.7%)
|
31 (39.8%)
|
52 (28.3%)
|
|
N stage
|
|
|
|
0.164
|
N0
|
38 (14.5%)
|
6 (7.7%)
|
32 (17.4%)
|
|
N1
|
189 (74.1%)
|
61 (78.2%)
|
128 (69.6%)
|
|
N2
|
10 (3.8%)
|
2 (2.6%)
|
8 (4.3%)
|
|
N3
|
25 (9.6%)
|
9 (11.5%)
|
16 (8.7%)
|
|
ER status
|
|
|
|
0.001
|
ER negative
|
89 (34.0%)
|
38 (48.7%)
|
51 (27.7%)
|
|
ER positive
|
173 (66.0%)
|
40 (51.3%)
|
133 (72.3%)
|
|
PR status
|
|
|
|
0.036
|
PR negative
|
74 (28.2%)
|
29 (37.1%)
|
45 (24.5%)
|
|
PR positive
|
188 (71.8%)
|
49 (62.8%)
|
139 (75.5%)
|
|
HER2 status
|
|
|
|
0.013
|
HER2 negative
|
158 (60.3%)
|
38 (48.7%)
|
120 (65.2%)
|
|
HER2 positive
|
104 (39.7%)
|
40 (51.3%)
|
64 (34.8%)
|
|
Ki67 index
|
|
|
|
0.728
|
<50%
|
157 (59.9%)
|
48 (61.5%)
|
109 (38.5%)
|
|
⩾50%
|
105 (40.1%)
|
30 (59.2%)
|
75 (40.8%)
|
|
Histologic grade
|
|
|
|
0.388
|
G2
|
92 (35.1%)
|
24 (30.8%)
|
68 (37.0%)
|
|
G3
|
181 (52.8%)
|
47 (60.2%)
|
94 (51.1%)
|
|
Unevaluable
|
29 (11.1%)
|
7 (9.0%)
|
22 (11.9%)
|
|
Molecular subtype
|
|
|
|
0.016
|
Luminal A-like
|
21 (8.0%)
|
4 (5.1%)
|
17 (9.2%)
|
|
Luminal B-like
|
183 (69.9%)
|
49 (62.8%)
|
134 (72.8%)
|
|
HER2-enriched
|
25 (9.5%)
|
14 (18.0%)
|
11 (6.0%)
|
|
Basal-like
|
33 (12.6%)
|
11 (14.1%)
|
22 (12.0%)
|
|
BMI
|
|
|
|
0.157
|
<25
|
191 (71.3%)
|
55 (65.5%)
|
136 (73.9%)
|
|
⩾25
|
71 (28.7%)
|
29 (34.5%)
|
48 (26.1%)
|
|
Abbreviations: T, tumor; N, nodal; ER, estrogen receptor; PR, progesterone receptor; HER2, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2; BMI, body mass index. |
Pcr Rates
We detected no differences in pCR rates between the groups separated by Ontario risk score (OR = 0.959, 95% CI 0.397–2.319, p = 0.926), Manchester risk score (OR = 1.125, 95% CI 0.402–3.151, p = 0.823), or Pedigree risk score (OR = 1.025, 95% CI 0.398–2.641, p = 0.959) (Fig. 2A; Table 3). However, NeoFHS-high patients achieved a superior pCR rate of 44.9%, whereas the corresponding rate was 27.7% for NeoFHS-low patients (OR = 2.123, 95% CI 1.224–3.682, p = 0.007; Fig. 2B; Table 3). Multivariate analyses suggested that none of those traditional family history scores were predictive for pCR (Ontario risk score, OR = 0.767, 95% CI 0.272–2.161, p = 0.616, Supplementary Table 2; Manchester risk score, OR = 1.146, 95% CI 0.366–3.589, p = 0.815, Supplementary Table 3; Pedigree risk score, OR = 0.893, 95% CI 0.301–2.645, p = 0.838, Supplementary Table 4), whereas NeoFHS was an independent predictive factor for pCR (OR = 2.262, 95% CI 1.159–4.414, p = 0.017). Besides, age (OR = 0.367, 95% CI 0.137–0.982, p = 0.046), T stage (OR = 0.581, 95% CI 0.379–0.892, p = 0.013), HorR status (OR = 0.398, 95% CI 0.203–0.782, p = 0.008), HER2 status (OR = 3.294, 95% CI 1.785–6.079, p < 0.001), and Ki67 index (OR = 3.190, 95% CI 1.740–5.848, p < 0.001) could also serve as independent predictive factors for pCR (Fig. 2C; Table 4). With LASSO algorithm (Fig. 2D) and cross validation (Fig. 2E), seven predictive features were selected, including NeoFHS, age, T stage, HorR status, HER2 status, Ki67 index, and BMI.
Table 3
Univariate analysis for predictive factors of pCR in all patients
Variables
|
Comparison for OR
|
Univariate analysis (n = 262)
|
|
|
OR
|
95% CI
|
p value
|
Ontario risk score
|
High vs low
|
0.959
|
0.397
|
2.319
|
0.926
|
Manchester risk score
|
High vs low
|
1.125
|
0.402
|
3.151
|
0.823
|
Pedigree risk score
|
High vs low
|
1.025
|
0.398
|
2.641
|
0.959
|
Neo-Family History Score
|
High vs low
|
2.123
|
1.224
|
3.682
|
0.007
|
Age
|
⩾35 vs < 35 years
|
0.411
|
0.173
|
0.974
|
0.043
|
T stage
|
T4 vs T3 vs T2
|
0.565
|
0.391
|
0.817
|
0.002
|
Nodal status
|
Positive vs negative
|
1.236
|
0.581
|
2.626
|
0.582
|
HorR status
|
Positive vs negative
|
0.321
|
0.176
|
0.587
|
< 0.001
|
HER2 status
|
Positive vs negative
|
2.707
|
1.592
|
4.602
|
< 0.001
|
Ki67 index
|
⩾50% vs < 50%
|
3.292
|
1.925
|
5.629
|
< 0.001
|
BMI
|
⩾25 vs < 25
|
0.503
|
0.268
|
0.944
|
0.032
|
Abbreviations: pCR, pathological complete response; OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval; T, tumor; HorR, hormone receptor; HER2, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2; BMI, body mass index. |
Table 4
Multivariate analysis for predicting pCR using Neo-Family History Score
Variables
|
Comparison for OR
|
Multivariate analysis (n = 262)
|
|
|
OR
|
95% CI
|
p value
|
Neo-Family History Score
|
High vs low
|
2.262
|
1.159
|
4.414
|
0.017
|
Age
|
⩾35 vs < 35 years
|
0.367
|
0.137
|
0.982
|
0.046
|
T stage
|
T4 vs T3 vs T2
|
0.581
|
0.379
|
0.892
|
0.013
|
Nodal status
|
Positive vs negative
|
0.919
|
0.389
|
2.170
|
0.847
|
HorR status
|
Positive vs negative
|
0.398
|
0.203
|
0.782
|
0.008
|
HER2 status
|
Positive vs negative
|
3.294
|
1.785
|
6.079
|
< 0.001
|
Ki67 index
|
⩾50% vs < 50%
|
3.190
|
1.740
|
5.848
|
< 0.001
|
BMI
|
⩾25 vs < 25
|
0.539
|
0.266
|
1.092
|
0.086
|
Abbreviations: pCR, pathological complete response; OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval; T, tumor; HorR, hormone receptor; HER2, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2; BMI, body mass index. |
|
The nomogram was created for the predictive model that combined NeoFHS with the extracted clinicopathological variables (Fig. 3A). The corresponding calibration curve showed great agreement between the predicted probabilities and observed pCR outcomes (χ2 = 10.39, p = 0.239; Fig. 3B). The accuracy of different predictive models was compared by ROC curves to evaluate the predictive value of NeoFHS. The area under curve (AUC) was 0.795 achieved by adding NeoFHS to clinicopathological variables, better than 0.779 for the clinicopathological characteristics alone, 0.581 for NeoFHS, 0.502 for Ontario model, 0.496 for Manchester model, and 0.499 for Pedigree model (Fig. 3C). The DCA consistently depicted more benefits with the model combining NeoFHS with clinicopathological features (Fig. 3D). The nomogram for predicting pCR demonstrated that cost/benefit ratios were lower with the risk threshold less than 0.7 (Fig. 3E).
Subgroup Analysis Of Pcr Rates
Subgroup analysis suggested that the pCR outcome was positively associated with NeoFHS in patients aged ⩾35 years old (OR = 1.828, 95% CI 1.022–3.272, p = 0.042) and those with BMI less than 25 (OR = 2.584, 95% CI 1.358–4.919, p = 0.004), as well as T2 (OR = 6.824, 95% CI 1.296–35.928, p = 0.023), T3-4 (OR = 2.014, 95% CI 1.082–3.749, p = 0.027), node-positive (OR = 2.649, 95% CI 1.473–4.761, p = 0.001), HorR-positive (OR = 2.009, 95% CI 1.026–3.933, p = 0.042), HER2-negative (OR = 2.333, 95% CI 1.052–5.175, p = 0.037), Ki67 higher than 50% (OR = 2.839, 95% CI 1.169–6.895, p = 0.021), and grade 3 tumors (OR = 2.175, 95% CI 1.067–4.434, p = 0.032; Fig. 4).
In the multivariate analyses, NeoFHS could serve as an independent predictive factor for pCR in T2 (80.0% vs 37.0%; OR = 7.139, 95% CI 1.083–47.062, p = 0.041; Supplementary Table 5), grade 3 (57.4% vs 38.3%; OR = 2.332, 95% CI 1.008–5.399, p = 0.048; Supplementary Table 6), node-positive (48.6% vs 26.3%; OR = 3.088, 95% CI 1.498–6.367, p = 0.002; Supplementary Table 7), HorR-positive (37.7% vs 23.2%; OR = 2.645, 95% CI 1.164–6.010, p = 0.020; Supplementary Table 8), and HER2-negative subgroups (36.8% vs 20.0%; OR = 4.786, 95% CI 1.550-14.775, p = 0.006; Supplementary Table 9).
There was no interaction detected between clinicopathological variables and NeoFHS for pCR (Fig. 4).
Relapse-free Survival
The median follow-up time was 28.3 months. For all patients, the Kaplan-Meier estimates demonstrated that RFS rates did not differ between Ontario high-risk and Ontario low-risk groups (log-rank p = 0.254; adjusted HR = 0.341, 95% CI 0.046–2.523, p = 0.292; Fig. 5A). No differences were seen for RFS between groups according to Manchester risk score (log-rank p = 0.440; adjusted HR = 0.447, 95% CI 0.060–3.301, p = 0.430; Fig. 5B) or Pedigree risk score (log-rank p = 0.328; adjusted HR = 0.404, 95% CI 0.054-3.000, p = 0.376; Fig. 5C), either. However, NeoFHS was observed to be independently prognostic for RFS (log-rank p = 0.066; adjusted HR = 0.305, 95% CI 0.102–0.910, p = 0.033; Fig. 5D). In node-positive women, patients with higher NeoFHS also achieved longer RFS than those with lower NeoFHS (log-rank p = 0.096; adjusted HR = 0.317, 95% CI 0.103–0.973, p = 0.045; Fig. 5E). The prognostic value of NeoFHS was not significant for RFS in HorR-positive (log-rank p = 0.194; adjusted HR = 0.444, 95% CI 0.130–1.510, p = 0.193) or HER2-negative counterparts (log-rank p = 0.133; adjusted HR = 0.302, 95% CI 0.069–1.325, p = 0.113).
Distant Relapse-free Survival
For the whole group, neither Ontario risk score (log-rank p = 0.321; adjusted HR = 0.391, 95% CI 0.052–2.914, p = 0.359; Supplementary Fig. 1A), nor Manchester risk score (log-rank p = 0.523; adjusted HR = 0.469, 95% CI 0.063–3.490, p = 0.460; Supplementary Fig. 1B), nor Pedigree risk score (log-rank p = 0.402; adjusted HR = 0.459, 95% CI 0.061–3.424, p = 0.447; Supplementary Fig. 1C) was associated with DRFS. Instead, NeoFHS could serve as an independent prognostic factor for DRFS in both total patients (log-rank p = 0.053; adjusted HR = 0.275, 95% CI 0.080–0.950, p = 0.041; Supplementary Fig. 1D) and node-positive subgroup (log-rank p = 0.063; adjusted HR = 0.274, 95% CI 0.078–0.971, p = 0.045; Supplementary Fig. 1E).
Visceral Metastasis-free Survival
Similarly, no association of VMFS was detected for total patients with Ontario risk score (log-rank p = 0.165; Supplementary Fig. 2A), Manchester risk score (log-rank p = 0.263; Supplementary Fig. 2B), or Pedigree risk score (log-rank p = 0.197; Supplementary Fig. 2C), while NeoFHS was an independent prognostic factor for improved VMFS in the entire population (log-rank p = 0.101; adjusted HR = 0.203, 95% CI 0.043–0.952, p = 0.043; Supplementary Fig. 2D), and concordantly in patients with node-positive breast cancer (log-rank p = 0.115; adjusted HR = 0.199, 95% CI 0.041–0.961, p = 0.044; Supplementary Fig. 2E).
Safety
Safety was assessed in all evaluable patients. Overall, common AEs were reported in 242 patients (92.4%). Among the three traditional scoring systems, Ontario risk score was related to more nausea (84.0% vs 57.0%; p = 0.009), fatigue (72.0% vs 43.5%; p = 0.006), diarrhea (68.0% vs 42.2%; p = 0.014), and rash (48.0% vs 27.4%; p = 0.032), while Pedigree risk score was correlated to more frequent nausea (80.9% vs 57.7%; p = 0.037) and diarrhea (66.7% vs 42.7%; p = 0.034) of any grade. In addition, a total of 138 patients (52.7%) experienced grade 3 or greater AEs. Ontario risk score was associated with more anemia events of grade 3 or greater (12.0% vs 3.4%; p = 0.041). However, no relationship between AEs and Manchester risk score was found (Supplementary Table 10).
On the other hand, higher NeoFHS was associated with more frequent nausea (75.6% vs 52.7%; p = 0.001) and diarrhea (55.1% vs 40.2%; p = 0.026). Moreover, alopecia (82.1% vs 60.3%; p = 0.001), peripheral neuropathy (70.5% vs 54.9%; p = 0.018), and constipation (34.6% vs 22.3%, p = 0.037) of any grade were also more common in patients with higher NeoFHS. Additionally, leukopenia of grade 3 or greater was more frequent in the NeoFHS-high group (39.7% vs 22.8%; p = 0.005). No difference was detected for other common AEs (Table 5).
Table 5
Summary of adverse events according to Neo-Family History Score
Events
|
Neo-Family History Score
|
|
High, N = 78
|
Low, N = 184
|
p value
|
Adverse events of any grade
|
|
|
|
Leukopenia
|
67 (85.9%)
|
161 (87.5%)
|
0.724
|
Neutropenia
|
65 (83.3%)
|
154 (83.7%)
|
0.942
|
Anemia
|
50 (64.1%)
|
127 (69.0%)
|
0.437
|
Elevated aspartate aminotransferase
|
15 (19.2%)
|
31 (16.9%)
|
0.643
|
Elevated total bilirubin
|
45 (57.7%)
|
82 (44.6%)
|
0.059
|
Elevated alanine aminotransferase
|
35 (44.9%)
|
77 (41.9%)
|
0.651
|
Alopecia
|
64 (82.1%)
|
111 (60.3%)
|
0.001
|
Nausea
|
59 (75.6%)
|
97 (52.7%)
|
0.001
|
Peripheral neuropathy
|
55 (70.5%)
|
101 (54.9%)
|
0.018
|
Diarrhea
|
43 (55.1%)
|
74 (40.2%)
|
0.026
|
Fatigue
|
43 (55.1%)
|
78 (42.4%)
|
0.078
|
Vomiting
|
33 (42.3%)
|
60 (32.6%)
|
0.134
|
Hand-foot syndrome
|
31 (39.7%)
|
63 (34.2%)
|
0.396
|
Epistaxis
|
31 (39.7%)
|
65 (35.3%)
|
0.497
|
Rash
|
29 (37.2%)
|
48 (26.1%)
|
0.072
|
Constipation
|
27 (34.6%)
|
41 (22.3%)
|
0.037
|
Adverse events ⩾ Grade 3
|
|
|
|
Neutropenia
|
43 (55.1%)
|
82 (44.6%)
|
0.118
|
Leukopenia
|
31 (39.7%)
|
42 (22.8%)
|
0.005
|
Anemia
|
3 (3.9%)
|
8 (4.4%)
|
0.853
|
Thrombocytopenia
|
1 (1.3%)
|
0
|
0.298
|
Vomiting
|
4 (5.1%)
|
6 (3.3%)
|
0.471
|
Fatigue
|
3 (3.9%)
|
5 (2.7%)
|
0.627
|
Diarrhea
|
2 (2.6%)
|
3 (1.6%)
|
0.614
|
Peripheral neuropathy
|
1 (1.3%)
|
0
|
0.298
|
Nausea
|
1 (1.3%)
|
1 (0.5%)
|
0.508
|
Serious adverse events
|
|
|
|
Fever
|
1 (1.3%)
|
0
|
0.298
|
Diarrhea
|
0
|
1 (0.5%)
|
> 0.99
|