This study applied a method for automated quantification of pulmonary and cardiovascular metrics to initial chest CTs of patients with RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 to predict treatment intensity. It was demonstrated that multiple metrics continuously and statistically significantly increase with higher treatment intensity. As expected, metrics quantifying lung opacities, representing pulmonary infiltrates and therefore acute pathology, were among the strongest discriminators. Moreover, the cardiovascular metric TPV showed a statistically significant increase towards higher treatment intensity, while QCC did not. AUC under the ROCs were 0.85 for discriminating those patients that eventually needed ICU care vs. not and 0.95 for discriminating patients needing hospitalization vs. not.
Our results regarding the relevance of pulmonary metrics in COVID-19 and their association with treatment intensity are in the line with reports from China. Li et al. reported an increasing extent of inflammatory pulmonary lesions from light to common to serve/critical clinical manifestation [10]. Guan et al. found no radiographic or CT abnormalities in 157 of 877 patients (17.9%) with non-severe disease and in only 5 of 173 patients (2.9%) with severe disease [20]. Noteworthy, in both studies, CTs had been analyzed manually. Similarly, Lyu et al. [7] and Zhang et al. [11] showed that the number of lung segments and lobes affected by crazy-paving pattern and consolidation increased with case severity, a fact in line with the increase in LSS and LHOS with increased treatment intensity. The opposite approach was taken by Colombi et al., who quantified areas of well-aerated, normal lung to predict adverse outcome in COVID-19 pneumonia [9]. They found that the percentage of well-aerated areas was lower in patients with ICU admission or death (57%) compared to other patients (78%), which is also compatible to our results. Of note, all aforementioned approaches required at least some manual input of a human reader and did include neither quantitative measurements of cardiovascular CT metrics nor immediate segmentation of lung opacities.
The percentage of areas with low attenuation below -950 HU (%LowHU) generally used to quantify lung emphysema [21] did not differ statistically significantly between treatment intensity groups, in contradiction to a meta-analysis that came to the conclusion that pre-existing COPD is associated with a nearly 4-fold higher risk of developing severe COVID-19 [22]. However, given the fact that the load of pulmonary opacities increased with severity of COVID-19 in our study collective, which counteracts the measurement of %LowHU, this metric is not correctly evaluable when facing pneumonia.
As previously shown, preexisting cardiovascular disease is a risk factor for adverse outcome in COVID-19 [23] and at the same time COVID-19 affects the cardiovascular system [24]. Therefore, the suggested approach includes cardiovascular metrics such as TPV as an estimate for heart size. Indeed, higher TPV was associated with higher risk for higher treatment intensity. Increased TPV might represent preexisting cardiac disease, an increased amount of pericardial fat or be mediated through the known impact of age, sex and body size [25]. The difference in mean diameters of the thoracic aorta is most probably explained by differences in age [26], because both mean diameters and age were similar in treatment intensity groups 2 and 3, but lower in group 1. Of note, in all groups all mean diameters of the aorta were within normal ranges.
In a pandemic situation with limited human resources, fully automated approaches are preferred. In this respect, Huang et al. have applied CT-derived opacification measures using deep learning to stratify four clinical subtypes according to their baseline clinical, laboratory and CT findings [27]. They provided further evidence of CT as an important tool for risk stratification in COVID-19 patients and reported percentages of lung areas with opacities ranging from 0% (mild disease) to 49.6% (critical disease), which is confirmed by the analysis at hand. However, radiological findings used to predict outcome were at the same time part of the outcome criteria of this study [28]. Furthermore, we explicitly defined the requirement of ICU-care as a parameter defining treatment intensity group 3, as we wanted to find baseline metrics that are early predictors of high workload for healthcare providers. Additionally, the present study included more complex pulmonary metrics and added cardiovascular metrics to the analysis.
This study has limitations. First, it is a single-site, one-vendor-only study design, which limits the generalizability of the results. However, given the high standardization of chest CT, we are confident that the results will prevail. Furthermore, the algorithm had been trained on a large multi-vendor dataset independent from the data we used. Second, no structured visual assessment of the segmentations was performed. However, the diagnostic accuracy of the algorithm prototypes had been demonstrated in previous studies. Third, the differentiation of consolidations from GGO was based on HU-thresholding. We are aware that this might slightly affect the accuracy of the measurement of consolidations (PHO). Fourth, this study included only patients with COVID-19 that received a CT scan, the diagnostic standard in patients with pulmonary complications from COVID-19 at our center. Therefore, the presented approach might be less relevant in medical centers with chest radiographs as diagnostic standard.