Prognostic value of the DNA damage repair pathways in HNSCC
We first estimated the DNA damage pathways activity in HNSCC samples using single cell Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA). The results showed that high scores of base excision repair (BER), homologous recombination (HR), and mismatch repair (MMR) were associated with better survival prognosis in HNSCC (Fig. 1A, B, C). However, there was no significant prognostic difference between the high and low score groups for nucleotide excision repair (NER) and non-homologous end joining (NHEJ) (Fig. 1D, E).
These findings suggest that BER, HR, and MMR play important roles in the survival prognosis of HNSCC. Further studies are needed to investigate the underlying mechanisms and to develop targeted therapies that can improve the prognosis of patients with HNSCC.
Construction and Evaluation of a DNA repair related signature model for HNSCC
First, we identified DNA damage repair genes with prognostic value in HNSCC using univariate Cox regression. A total of 10 genes were identified with a P value less than 0.05 and were selected as the candidate genes for the construction of the signature model (Fig. 2A).
The HNSCC cohort was then randomly divided into the training (n = 306) and testing (n = 205) cohort at a ratio of 6:4. LASSO regression was then performed using the training cohort to identify the DNA damage genes that had the greatest importance on the survival outcomes in HNSCC (Fig. 2B-2C). Finally, we established a risk signature model consisting of six genes (Fig. 2D): DCLRE1C, TOP3B, POLE2, POLD2, ERCC2, and RAD23B.
The survival prognostic value of the risk signature consisting of six DNA damage repair genes was evaluated in the training and testing cohort. The risk score of each HNSCC sample was calculated according to the signature model and ordered based on the risk score in the training cohort. The scatter plot representing the overall survival status of HNSCC patients showed that the samples in the high-risk group were associated with a higher mortality rate than those in the low-risk group (Fig. 3B). We also constructed a heatmap presenting the signature gene expression profiles, which showed that HNSCC samples with higher signature scores tended to exhibit higher expression levels of POLD2, ERCC2, and RAD23B, while those with lower risk scores tended to exhibit elevated levels of TOP3B, POLE2, and DCLRE1C (Fig. 3C).
The above analysis was also performed in the testing cohort and the distribution plot representing the survival status (Fig. 3D), scatter plot indicating the risk score (Fig. 3E), heatmap presenting the gene expression (Fig. 3F) were consistent to that in the training cohort, respectively.
Finally, the survival prognostic value of the risk signature was evaluated in the training and the testing cohort. The results indicated that the higher risk score was significantly associated with poor survival prognosis in the training cohort (Fig. 4A, P < 0.001) and the testing cohort (Fig. 4B, P = 0.0072). These findings indicate the high predictive capacity of the risk signature in both the training and testing cohorts.
To further validate the prognostic value of the model, we tested the model in the external GEO cohort GSE27020. Survival analysis was performed and the Kaplan-Meier curve indicated that higher signature score was associated with poor survival prognosis in GSE27020 (Fig. 4C, P = 0.031). In summary, the DNA damage risk signature showed good performance in predicting the survival prognosis in HNSCC.
Identification of Potential Pathways Associated with the DNA Damage Repair Signature
We first explored the distribution of the Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) score of each DNA damage repair pathway between the high- and low-risk groups. We found that all of the pathways were significantly higher expressed in the low-risk group than in the high-risk group, including base excision repair (Fig. 5A, P = 5.1e-09), homologous recombination (Fig. 5B, P = 2e-07), mismatch repair (Fig. 5C, P = 4.2e-11), non-homologous end joining (Fig. 5D, P = 0.00016), and nucleotide excision repair (Fig. 5E, P = 4.3e-05).
These findings suggest that the DNA damage repair signature is associated with the expression of these pathways. This is consistent with our previous analysis, which showed that a low GSVA score of the DNA damage repair signature was associated with poor survival prognosis in HNSCC samples.
The results of this study provide further evidence that the DNA damage repair signature is a potential biomarker for predicting the survival prognosis of HNSCC patients. The identification of the potential pathways associated with the signature could help to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of HNSCC and to develop targeted therapies for this disease.
Exploration of the potential Biological Pathways Associated with the Signature Model
Next, to explore the biological pathways associated with the signature model, we first identified the differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between the two risk groups. A total of 2347 DEGs were identified (Fig. 6A).
We then performed Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) enrichment analysis to explore the potential biological pathways associated with the DEGs. The GO analysis indicated that the risk signature was mainly involved in the extracellular matrix organization, extracellular structure organization, and T cell activation (Fig. 6B). The KEGG enrichment analysis indicated that the DEGs were mainly enriched in cell adhesion molecules, ECM-receptor interaction, and focal adhesion (Fig. 6C).
The GO and KEGG analysis together suggest that the risk signature may be associated with the extracellular matrix. We also explored the potential pathways using Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) and the results indicated that the signature correlated with typical tumor progression pathways including apical junction, E2F targets, and epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) (Fig. 6D).
The results of this study suggest that the DNA damage repair signature is associated with a number of biological pathways, including those involved in the extracellular matrix, T cell activation, and tumor progression. These findings provide further evidence that the signature is a potential biomarker for predicting the survival prognosis of HNSCC patients. The identification of the potential pathways associated with the signature could help to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of HNSCC and to develop targeted therapies for this disease.
The signature model correlated with tumor microenvironment and immunotherapy response
The previous analysis suggested that the risk signature was associated with the epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) related pathways. We next analyzed the correlation between the risk signature and the immune microenvironment. We first estimated the infiltration levels of different immune cell types in TCGA HNSCC cohort and the distribution of the enrichment score of immune cells between the high and low risk groups were compared.
As shown in Fig. 7A, many types of immune cells had a higher infiltration level in the low-risk group than the high-risk group, including activated B cells, activated CD4 T cells, and activated CD8 T cells. This suggests that the risk signature may be associated with a favorable immune microenvironment.
Next, we performed correlation analysis between the risk score and expression of four immune markers including CTLA-4, PD-1, PD-L1, and PD-L2. We found that CTLA-4 significantly negatively correlated with the signature score (Fig. 7B). This suggests that the risk signature may be inversely correlated with the expression of CTLA-4, which is a checkpoint protein that can inhibit T cell activation.
PD-1, PD-L1, and PD-L2 did not show significant correlation with the risk score (Fig. 7C-E). This suggests that the risk signature may not be directly correlated with the expression of these checkpoint proteins.
These results suggest that the risk signature may predict the effectiveness of immunotherapy. Further studies are needed to confirm this finding.
Construction of A Nomogram Predicting Prognosis of HNSCC patient
To better predict the survival prognosis for HNSCC samples, we further tried to establish a nomogram for HNSCC. First, both univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to evaluate whether the clinicopathological characteristics and risk score can serve as independent prognostic indicators for HNSCC patients (Fig. 8A).
We found that the risk score, sex, and TNM stage were independent prognostic factors for HNSCC patients (Fig. 8B). Next, a nomogram consisting of the five factors was constructed to predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year prognosis of the HNSCC (Fig. 8C). We also constructed the calibration curves to evaluate the accuracy of the nomogram, and the results showed a consistent fitness between the predicted and observed values for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS of HNSCC (Fig. 8D-8F).
The nomogram showed good performance in predicting the survival prognosis of HNSCC patients. It can be used as a clinical tool to help doctors assess the prognosis of HNSCC patients and make treatment decisions.