The Current and Future Potential Distribution Areas of the Invasive Oak Leaf Defoliator Oak lace bug [Corythucha arcuata (Say, 1832)] (Heteroptera: Tingidae) on Oak Forests of Türkiye

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3620520/v1

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The Current and Future Potential Distribution Areas of the Invasive Oak Leaf Defoliator Oak lace bug [Corythucha arcuata (Say, 1832)] (Heteroptera: Tingidae) on Oak Forests of Türkiye

https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3620520/v1

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The study aims to model the current and future (2041–2060 and 2081–2100) potential distribution areas of Oak lace bug [Corythucha arcuata) according to SSP2 and SSP5 emission scenarios of the HadGEM3-GC31-LL model. Pearson Correlation Analysis performed to select the bioclimatic data to be run in the model and it was decided to use 7 variables to determine the potential distribution areas of Corythucha arcuata. These variables are Annual Mean Temperature, Max Temperature of Warmest Month, Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter, Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter for temperature data and Annual Precipitation, Precipitation Seasonality and Precipitation of Driest Quarter for precipitation data.The current potential distribution area model of Corythucha arcuata created in MaxEnt shows that it is concentrated in the Marmara and Black Sea regions. According to the HadGEM3-GC31-LL climate change model SSP2-4.5 scenario, there will be a general narrowing in the distribution area within the 2040–2060 (~ 2050) period, there will be suitable and very suitable areas locally in some regions of Marmara and along the Black Sea coastline, and in the interior. So, state forestry authorities should take precautions for this pest in oak stands in northern Türkiye in the future.

Corythucha arcuata

distribution

climate change

HadGEM3-GC31-LL

Maxent

Climate change and the spread of foreign invasive species are among the factors that disrupt the natural balance in forest ecosystems, in addition to abiotic and biotic factors, in recent years. The growth of global trade contributes to the migration of exotic species beyond their natural distribution to settle in new ecosystems and the spread of plant diseases and pests on a global scale (Gehring 2019).

One of these invasive species is the Oak lace bug [Corythucha arcuata (Say, 1832)]. This pest, first detected in Italy in 2000, originates from North America and is common in the southern parts of the United States and Canada (Forster et al. 2005). C. arcuata was recorded for the first time in Turkey in 2003 in the Bolu province, and was subsequently recorded in Sakarya, Düzce, Kocaeli, Ankara, Bilecik, Çankırı, Eskişehir, Bursa, Mersin, Amasya, Samsun, Istanbul, Tokat, Kastamonu, Tekirdağ, Artvin, Niğde provinces and it has rapidly expanded its spread in regions such as the Eastern Black Sea (Aysal and Kıvan 2018; Aytar et al. 2014; Çerçi and Koçak 2016; Küçükbasmacı 2014; Mutun et al. 2009).

C. arcuata feeds especially on oak species. Additionally, plants such as Rubus idaeus and R. ulmifolius are also suitable hosts (Bernardinelli 2006). This pest settles on the underside of oak leaves and feeds by piercing the leaf epidermis. The feeding process causes chlorotic discoloration and black spots, while heavy infestation causes premature oak leaf fall.

24 oak taxa occur in and Türkiye. Among of them, Quercus aucheri Jaub. & Spach., Quercus mac-ranthera subsp. syspirensis (K.Koch), Quercus trojana subsp. yaltirikii Ziel. and Quercus vulcanica Boiss. &Heldr. ex Kotschy are endemic (Öztürk 2013; Sarikaya et al. 2022). These taxa are negatively affected by climate change.

Expected climate change and global warming may lead to changes in the natural distribution areas of species and the effects of harmful factors (Arslan 2019; Bellard et al. 2012; Sarıkaya and Örücü 2021). Species distribution models (SDMs) provide some insight into future biogeographies (Parmesan and Hanley 2015; Uzun et al. 2023).

This study aims to model the potential current and possible future geographical distribution areas of the naturally distributed Oak Lace Beetle, which is seen especially on oak trees in Marmara and Northern Anatolia in Türkiye, and to reveal how its distribution areas will change temporally and spatially from today to the future and the possible threat to forests.

In order to model distribution areas the oak lace bug, presence data of Corythucha arcuata were obtained from various literature reviews and online open access platforms (GBIF 2023). Asset data was collected in QGIS, a geographic information system software (Aysal and Kıvan 2018; Aytar et al. 2014; Küçükbasmacı 2014; Mutun 2003; Mutun et al. 2009; QGIS 2022) with Google Satellite Hybrid satellite image (5m spatial It was processed in the WGS 84 coordinate system using resolution). The resulting asset data and working area are shown in Fig. 1.

All variables were used to model possible distribution area of the species. To determine the last model, environmental variables were used (Table 1). Two different models (the present and 2070) were constructed for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of greenhouse gas scenarios. All variable rasters were at 30 arc-seconds resolution.

Table 1

Environmental variables used in the study (WorldClim. (2020).
Variable	Description
Elevation	-
WC1	Annual Mean Temperature
WC2	Mean Diurnal Range (Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp))
WC3	Isothermality (WC2/WC7) (* 100)
WC4	Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation *100)
WC5	Max Temperature of Warmest Month
WC6	Min Temperature of Coldest Month
WC7	Temperature Annual Range (WC5-WC6)
WC8	Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter
WC9	Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter
WC10	Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter
WC11	Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter
WC12	Annual Precipitation
WC13	Precipitation of Wettest Month
WC14	Precipitation of Driest Month
WC15	Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation)
WC16	Precipitation of Wettest Quarter
WC17	Precipitation of Driest Quarter
WC18	Precipitation of Warmest Quarter
WC19	Precipitation of Coldest Quarter

The MaxEnt algorithm, which is most frequently preferred by researchers, was used to determine the current and future potential distribution areas of the species. The model of today's potential distribution areas was created from observed data (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, water vapor pressure, etc.) in WorldClim version 2.1 (Fick and Hijmans 2017; Hijmans et al. 2005; Uzun and Örücü 2020; WorldClim 2020). For future potential distribution area models, bioclimatic data of the years 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 from the SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios of the HadGEM3-GC31-LL model in CMIP6 published by the Intergovernmental Climate Change Panel were downloaded from WorldClim's data service and included in the study. It has been converted to the appropriate format (Good 2019; IPCC 2021). Pearson Correlation Analysis was performed on these variables, which contain a total of 19 temperature and precipitation data, in the IBM SPSS (SPSS, 2022) environment to avoid automatic correlation between the variables (Akyol et al. 2023; Cao et al. 2016; Sillero 2011).

Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) obtained from Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to measure the performance of the model (Phillips et al. 2017; Wang et al. 2007). If the AUC value is > 0.5, it indicates that the model performs better than a random guess, and as the AUC value approaches 1, the model becomes more sensitive and descriptive (Phillips et al. 2006; Phillips and Elith 2010). Afterwards, the MaxEnt Jackknife test was performed to determine the importance of bioclimatic variables for the species (Pearson et al. 2007; Shcheglovitova and Anderson 2013; Uzun and Örücü 2020).

Model results were converted into distribution maps using the raster/vector conversion function with the QGIS 3.10.4 program. In the models created in the MaxEnt algorithm, the probability of the species being found in the area is between 0 and 1, but as it approaches 1, the probability of the species being found in the area increases. Suitability values for potential distribution areas in the maps created as a result of the model are "<0.25" (0) not suitable, "0.25–0.50" (1) low suitability, "0.50–0.75" (2) suitable and "0.75-1" (3) very high suitability. They were classified as suitable areas and according to this classification, their estimated distribution areas were calculated as km² according to today's and future scenarios. According to the suitability maps, "vector change analysis" was performed to see the spatial change in the distribution areas of the species from today to the future (Şen et al. 2022). In the change analysis, current and future distribution areas were intersected according to suitability classes and the direction of change was examined. Loss-Gain change values in the change maps are given in Table 2.

Table 2

Loss-Gain change values
Change/Suitability	0 (< 0.25)	1 (0.25–0.5)	2 (0.5–0.75)	3 (0.75-1)
Gain	1, 2, 3	2, 3	3	-
Loss	-	0	0, 1	0, 1, 2
Stable	-	1	2	3
Unsuitable	0	-	-	-

As a result of the Pearson Correlation Analysis performed to select the bioclimatic data to be run in the model, it was decided to use 7 variables to determine the potential distribution areas of Corythucha arcuata (Fig. 2). These variables are Annual Mean Temperature, Max Temperature of Warmest Month, Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter, Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter for temperature data and Annual Precipitation, Precipitation Seasonality and Precipitation of Driest Quarter for precipitation data.

In the importance (JackKnife) graph of bioclimatic variables created for Corythucha arcuata, it is seen that the first 3 most important variables are Bio 15 (Seasonal precipitation amount), Bio 17 (Precipitation amount of the driest season) and Bio 5 (Highest temperature of the hottest month). (Fig. 3). When we look at the AUC value of the model, the value of 0.904 shows that the model is sensitive and descriptive (Fig. 4).

The current potential distribution area model of Corythucha arcuata created in MaxEnt shows high overlap with the presence data (Fig. 5). When we look at the distribution area of the species, which is currently the host of oak trees, from which it takes its name, it is noticed that it is concentrated in the Marmara and Black Sea regions. In the model, very suitable areas (0.75-1) are symbolized in red, suitable areas (0.5–0.75) are symbolized in orange, and low suitability areas (0.25–0.5) are symbolized in green.

According to the HadGEM3-GC31-LL climate change model SSP2-4.5 scenario, there will be a general narrowing in the distribution area within the 2040–2060 (~ 2050) period, there will be suitable and very suitable areas locally in some regions of Marmara and along the Black Sea coastline, and in the interior. It is estimated that it will withdraw completely from the Anatolia region. According to the SSP2-4.5 scenario, it is seen that the distribution in the coastal band seen in ~ 2050 will decline further in the 2080–2100 (~ 2090) period, and very suitable distribution areas are estimated to be only around Samsun province (middle Black sea region of Türkiye) (Fig. 6).

Considering the 2040–2060 (~ 2050) period according to the HadGEM3-GC31-LL climate change model SSP5-8.5 scenario, it is seen that the potential distribution areas for the species are similar to SSP2-4.5 ~ 2050, but there are no suitable distribution areas left, especially in the middle Black Sea line. According to the SSP5-8.5 scenario, it is seen that the species does not have a very suitable distribution area in the 2080–2100 (~ 2090) period, and the suitable distribution area remains very limited and fragmented (Fig. 7).

The areal and percentage distributions of the current and future potential distribution areas of the species are given in Table 3.

Table 3

Spatial distribution of the potential distribution of *Corythucha arcuata* in the years 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 according to today's, SSP2 4.5 and SSP4 8.5 climate scenarios (km²)
		SSP 2–45				SSP 5–85
Suitability	Current	2041–2060	%	2081–2100	%	2041–2060	%	2081–2100	%
Unsuitable	534949.480	673609.504	86.38	718019.519	92.07	695043.735	89.13	756912.606	97.06
Low	134033.892	59914.851	7.68	44917.849	5.76	57053.831	7.32	20786.206	2.67
Suitable	53021.098	33016.493	4.23	14613.782	1.87	22473.317	2.88	2136.046	0.27
Very Suitable	57830.392	13293.980	1.70	2283.674	0.29	5263.849	0.67	0.000	0.00
Total	779834.862	779834.829	100	779834.824	100	779834.732	100	779834.857	100

In Loss-Gain (Direction of Change) maps, losses for the species are high. As for earnings, it is seen that earnings values are below 1% in all scenarios and years (Fig. 8 and Fig. 9).

The areal and percentage distributions of the current and future potential distribution areas of the species are given in Table 4.

Table 4

Spatial distribution of Loss-Gain (Direction of change) situation from Present to Future projections (km²)
	SSP 2–45				SSP 5–85
Change	2041–2060	%	2081–2100	%	2041–2060	%	2081–2100	%
Gain	3375.533	0.43	352.727	0.05	253.539	0.03	64.111	0.01
Loss	210042.552	26.93	237476.609	30.45	233287.183	29.91	243655.100	31.24
Stable	32880.114	4.22	7294.341	0.94	11396.493	1.46	1230.265	0.16
Unsuitable	533536.605	68.42	534711.074	68.57	534897.521	68.59	534885.367	68.59
Total	779834.804	100	779834.751	100	779834.736	100	779834.842	100

Model results showed that there will be a general narrowing in the distribution area of within the 2040–2060 (~ 2050) period for oak lace bug, there will be suitable and very suitable areas locally in some regions of Marmara and along the Black Sea coastline, and in the interior. According to the SSP2-4.5 scenario, it is seen that the distribution in the coastal band seen in ~ 2050 will decline further in the 2080–2100 (~ 2090) period, and very suitable distribution areas are estimated to be only around Samsun province (middle Black sea region of Türkiye).

In conclusion, Maxent software was used to determine the potential distribution distribution of Corythucha arcuata on oak species in Türkiye and also to assign the factors which are shaping its distribution. The main conclusion is that state forestry authorities should take precautions for this pest in the oak stands in northern Turkey in the future.

Author contributions Oguzhan Sarikaya, Tutku Gencal and Ayse Gul Sarikaya planned the work and manuscript preparation. Almira Uzun conducted statistical analyses. Oguzhan Sarikaya and Ayse Gul Sarikaya wrote and edited the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Funding No funding was obtained for this study. By the way, the third author, Almira Uzun is a PhD scholarship holder of YÖK 100/2000 in the thematic field of sustainable forestry and forest disaster.

Data availability Data will be made available on demand.

Consent to participate All authors consent to participate in this article.

Consent for publication All authors consent to publish the article in this journal.

Competing interests The authors declare no competing interests.

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No competing interests reported.

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The Current and Future Potential Distribution Areas of the Invasive Oak Leaf Defoliator Oak lace bug [Corythucha arcuata (Say, 1832)] (Heteroptera: Tingidae) on Oak Forests of Türkiye

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