BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE
The distribution of patients with hematological malignancies will probably markedly change because society is aging. We assessed the expected incidence rates of leukemia, malignant lymphoma, and multiple myeloma using estimates of the nation’s population and Kanagawa Cancer Registry data.
METHODS
To estimate the future incidence, we multiplied the 2010 rate by the predicted population according to age groups.
RESULTS
The total number of patients newly diagnosed as having hematological malignancy in Kanagawa in 2010 was 1,970. This was predicted to increase to 2,581 in 2025 and to decrease to 2,712 in 2040. Trends were almost the same for all three hematological malignancies. The incidence rates of the three hematological malignancies were predicted to continuously increase in patients aged ≥65 years: a 169% (450/266) increase in leukemia, 167% (1205/722) increase in malignant lymphoma, and 169% (309/183) increase in multiple myeloma from 2010 to 2040. In the group of patients aged <65 years, the incidence rates of these hematological malignancies were predicted to decrease.
CONCLUSIONS
The distribution of patients will change in the future: the number of elderly patients will increase, and the number of patients living in urban areas will increase. This prediction may have a great impact on the future health care plan.