With the world’s fastest aging population, China’s increasing life expectancy and declining birth rates challenges the provision of healthcare (Peng, 2011). In 2020, there were 264 million people aged 60 years old and over, accounting for 18.7% of the Chinese population, forecast to rise to more than 500 million by 2050 (The National Bureau of Statistics, 2021; United Nations, 2022). Within the aging population, 52.7 million suffered disabilities, estimated to reach 82.7 million by 2030 and 89.6 million by 2050. (Luo et al., 2021). The number of over 60-year-old Chinese suffering dementia was 15.07 million in 2018, and is expected to rise to 50 million by 2050 (Jia et al., 2020; Li et al., 2021). Older adults with disabilities and dementia pose a serious challenge to the sustainability of China’s long-term care (LTC) system (Feng et al., 2012; Lei et al., 2022). With the reduction in the size of the Chinese family, the effects of the one-child policy, urban migration and the decline in informal family provided LTC, the demand for formal LTC has surged (Feng et al., 2020). To address this challenge, the Chinese government launched in 2016 a long-term care insurance (LTCI) scheme in 15 pilot cities, expanding to 49 cities by 2020, to provide the old aged with disabilities and dementia accessible and affordable long-term care services (National Healthcare Security Administration, 2021). LTCI aimed to alleviate the shortage of caregivers for severely disabled patients by providing nursing service payments in public care facilities and also some support for home-based care services (Jiang & Yang, 2023). China’s National Medical Insurance Administration aims to build a nation-wide and unified LTCI system independent from China’s basic pension and medical social insurance system (Information Office of the State Council, 2023). How to promote the expansion of China’s LTCI is an urgent challenge for China.
Non-compulsory LTCI markets are widespread, with people's LTCI purchasing decisions analyzed from the economic, behavioral, and psychosocial perspectives (Boyer et al., 2017; Brown et al., 2012; Curry et al., 2009; He & Chou, 2020; Sloan & Norton, 1997). Behavioral economics provides a powerful framework for understanding the purchase decision behavior for LTCI by focusing on individual risk perceptions in intertemporal health decision-making choices (White & Dow, 2015). An individual’s risk perception, derived from objective knowledge of LTC risks, subjective knowledge of LTC risks and subjective knowledge of one’s own health, has been shown to shape LTCI needs (Costa-Font & Rovira-Forns, 2008; Lambregts & Schut, 2020; Ugarte Montero & Wagner, 2023). Cognitive biases or overconfidence means individuals’ health cognition may deviate from rational expectations, resulting in a misunderstanding of LTCI risks affecting decision-making (Baicker et al., 2012; Y.-P. Chen, 2003). Individual LTCI perceptions biases reflect physical, mental, financial and other factors associated with future projection of disability or dementia in old age (Finkelstein & McGarry, 2006; Tennyson & Yang, 2014). Motivated by self-protection, the probability of older adults purchasing LTCI increases with their knowledge of the risks associated with their future likely LTC needs (Zhou-Richter et al., 2010). These studies suggest that expectations of LTC risk are positively correlated with changes in LTCI demand, and thus it is possible to promote older adults’ participation in LTCI by increasing their risk perception.
In healthcare research, these behavioral hypotheses have been widely applied to insurance enrollment, vaccination decisions and medication use to facilitate the public's health-favorable decision-making (Capuno et al., 2016; Handel et al., 2019; Stuart et al., 2013). Surprisingly, there is currently a lack of research on the role of information interventions in shaping the LTC insurance risk perceptions of older Chinese adults with disabilities and dementia. To address this research gap, we designed a scenario experiment to explore whether older Chinese adults with information about the adverse health outcomes of disability or dementia would change their willingness to buy LTCI. People’ evaluation of their own health status, their knowledge of the consequences of illness and their understanding of their health behaviors will impact their perception of future health risks (Jones et al., 2014), so we also investigate the moderating effect of health status on the impact of information interventions on LTCI decisions. Since our study is concerned with the effect of information interventions on the changes of older adults’ LTC risk perceptions and LTCI intentions, the results are expected to vary depending on the older adults’ own risk perceptions. Participants’ education background and whether they reside in a LTCI pilot city proxy respondents’ knowledge about LTCI (Lassen, 2005; Pförtner & Hower, 2022). Our paper also conducted a heterogeneity analysis to explore the intervention effects of disability and dementia information for subgroups with different education levels and pilot city conditions.
Our study makes contributions in the following three aspects. From the perspective of risk perception, we explore whether increasing people's understanding of the risk of disability or dementia could change their willingness to participate in LTCI. This not only enriches the research on information intervention on health promotion, but also provides empirical reference for the Chinese government to improve the LTCI coverage rate of residents. Second, we examine the moderating role of an individual's health status and LTCI knowledge on LTCI decision-making, providing evidence for the implementation of individualized and effective interventions. Finally, our nationally representative survey experiment provides to government evidence on LTCI willingness in China, helping improve China’s “person-centered” LTC system.