To compare HIV-1 proviral DNA levels between early and deferred ART we analysed 44 PBMC samples from 125 children randomised to ART-Def (35.2%), and 73 samples from 143 children in ART-96W (51%) at 96 weeks. To compare HIV-1 proviral DNA levels across all three arms we analysed 70 PBMC samples from 125 children randomised to ART-Def (56%), 56 samples from 143 children from ART-40W (39%), and 43 samples from 143 children from ART-96W (30%) at 248 weeks (Table 1).
Factors associated with low levels of HIV-1 proviral DNA
Time spent on ART by week 96 was significantly shorter in ART-Def (median 84 [IQR 72–84] weeks) versus ART-96W (96 [IQR 96–96], p < 0.0001). There was significantly more HIV-1 proviral DNA in ART-Def at 96 weeks (median 2415 [IQR 499–7450]) than ART-96W (325 [53-3670] copies of HIV-1 proviral DNA/106 PBMCs, p = 0.0019, Fig. 1A and 1B). In multivariable analysis (Table 4a), at 96 weeks, longer duration of ART, or earlier age of starting ART, was significantly associated with lower levels of HIV-1 proviral DNA (β=-1.21 (95% CI: -1.85,-0.57), p = 0.0003). This suggests a reduction in HIV-1 proviral DNA percentage by 70% for every further year on ART. The same effect is evident at 248 trial weeks (Table 4b) whereby a reduction of 30% HIV-1 proviral DNA is seen for every further year on ART (β=-0.36 (95% CI: -0.15, -0.15), p = 0.0011). Figures 1D and 1E illustrate the spread of the data and how some individuals have high HIV-1 proviral DNA despite long duration of ART or viral load suppression.
Higher total CD8 count at ART initiation was associated with lower HIV-1 proviral DNA at both 96 and 248 weeks (β=-0.08 (95% CI: -0.14,-0.01), p = 0.0225 and β=-0.07 (95% CI: -0.14,-0.00), p = 0.0398, respectively). Therefore, for every 500 cell increase in total CD8 count, a reduction of approximately 7% in HIV-1 proviral DNA was demonstrated at weeks 96 and 248.
Compared to CDC stage N at enrolment, CDC stage B was associated with a 57% reduction in HIV-1 proviral DNA levels at 96 weeks (β=-0.84 (95% CI: -1.58,-0.09), p = 0.0287). This relationship was not seen at 248 weeks. There was 40% more reduction of HIV-1 proviral DNA levels at KIDCRU, the Cape Town trial study site compared to PHRU, the Johannesburg study site (β=-0.52 (95% CI: -0.85, -0.18), p = 0.0031) at 248 weeks (but not 96 weeks). Multivariable analysis did not suggest that the different maternal or child PMTCT used at the two trial sites significantly affected total HIV-1 proviral DNA at either week 96 or 248.
At 248 weeks, HIV-1 proviral DNA levels were significantly higher in those with positive HIV-1 serology determined at 84 weeks compared to children with negative HIV-1 serology (β = 0.73 (95% CI: 0.23,1.22), p = 0.0042). The same relationship was evident between undetermined serology (not determined in 56 ART-40W, 9 ART-96W and 19 ART-Def children) and increased HIV-1 proviral DNA levels compared with negative HIV-1 serology.
Effect of ART interruption on HIV-1 proviral DNA
The effect of time off ART in the first (ART-Def, n = 70), second (ART-40W, n = 56) or third (ART-96W, n = 43) year of life was assessed by comparing HIV-1 proviral DNA between the treatment strategies at 248 weeks. In the children examined, the total time spent on ART from enrolment until 248 weeks was higher in ART-Def (median 228 [IQR 211,240] weeks, 220 [196,235] for ART-40W, 216 [168,247] for ART-96W; p = 0.0001), as was the duration of viral load suppression (median 200 [IQR 163,214] weeks for ART-Def, 163 [110,192] for ART-40W, 164 [108,200] for ART-96W; p = 0.0001). There was no significant difference at 248 weeks between the 3 arms in HIV-1 proviral DNA (median 1165 [IQR 167,10900] HIV-1 proviral DNA/106 PBMCs for ART-Def, 4165 [294,26150] for ART-40W, 915 [172,15400] for ART-96W; p = 0.2553, Fig. 1C).
Of the 229 children studied, only 2 children had HIV-1 proviral DNA measurements ≤ 50 copies/106 PBMCs: 1 child from ART-Def with undetectable proviral DNA at 252 weeks and 1 child from ART-96W with HIV-1 proviral DNA 6 copies/106 PBMCs at 96 weeks.