The results that will describe are climate resilience vectors, gender and social inclusion integration vectors, community conflict risks integration vectors, climate migration integration vectors, greenhouse gas emissions reduction solutions vectors and resilience configurations and trajectories matrix.
3.1. Climate resilience vectors
The Badolo ClimResilience framework includes three vectors for climate resilience planning. These are climate change impact chains vector ṽ1ce, climate change vulnerabilities vector ṽ2ce and climate change resilience solutions vector ṽ3ce.
The component ṽ1cei (i =1,…, 5) of the vector ṽ1ce is the climate change impact chain on the component ei (i =1,…, 5) of the system considered. If climate change impact chains of length (k) are considered, an impact chain ṽ1cei (i =1,…, 5) includes (k +1) impacts ṽ1ceidj (i = 1,…, 5; j = 0,…, k):
- ṽ1cei (i =1,…, 5) = ṽ1ceido, ṽ1ceid1,…, ṽ1ceidk
An impact ṽ1ceid0 (i=1,…, 5) is a direct impact of climate change and an impact ṽ1ceidj (i=1,…, 5; j = 1,…, k) is an indirect impact of order (j). It is the repercussion or consequence of the ṽ1ceid(j-1) impact.
The vector ṽ1ce can be used to establish climate change direct and indirect impacts families:
- ṽ1ce_d0 = {ṽ1ce1d0, ṽ1ce2d0, ṽ1ce3d0, ṽ1ce4d0, ṽ1ce5d0}, climate change direct impacts family;
- ṽ1ce_d1 = {ṽ1ce1d1, ṽ1ce2d1, ṽ1ce3d1, ṽ1ce4d1, ṽ1ce5d1, climate change first-order indirect impacts family;
- ṽ1ce_d2 = {ṽ1ce1d2, ṽ1ce2d2, ṽ1ce3d2, ṽ1ce4d2, ṽ1ce5d2, climate change second-order indirect impacts family;
- …………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
- ṽ1ce_dk = {ṽ1ce1dk, ṽ1ce2dk, ṽ1ce3dk, ṽ1ce4dk, ṽ1ce5dk}, climate change k-order indirect impacts family
The vector ṽ1ce can also be used to specify climate change social, economic, environmental, human, institutional and political impacts subsets:
- ṽ1ce_scial, the subset of social elements of ṽ1ce;
- ṽ1ce_economic, the subset of economic elements of ṽ1ce;
- ṽ1ce_environmental, the subset of environmental elements of ṽ1ce
- ṽ1ce _human, the subset of human elements of ṽ1ce;
- ṽ1ce_institutionnel, the subset of institutional elements of ṽ1ce;
- ṽ1ce_politics, the subset of political elements of ṽ1ce
In contexts where effective climate resilience policies are implemented, climate change impacts are reduced to residual impacts, ṽ1cei (i = 1,…, 5) ≈ Ø.
The component ṽ2cei (i = 1,…, 5) of the vector (ṽ2ce) is the system considered component ei (i =1,…, 5) vulnerability factors set. It contains (k+1) vulnerability factors subsets ṽ2ceidj (i =1,…, 5; j = 0, …, k). Reducing the vulnerability under ṽ2ceidj mitigates the impact ṽ1ceidj (i = 1,…, 5; j = 0, …, k). Vulnerability to climate change is multidimensional. Subsets of climate change vulnerability are:
- ṽ2ce_scial, social vulnerability factors subset;
- ṽ2ce_economic, economic vulnerability factors subset;
- ṽ2ce_environmental, environmental vulnerability factors subset;
- ṽ2ce _human, human vulnerability factors subset;
- ṽ2ce_scientific, scientific vulnerability factors subset;
- ṽ2ce_technological, technological vulnerability factors subset;
- ṽ2ce_institutional, institutional vulnerability factors subset;
- ṽ2ce_politics, political vulnerability factors subset
The component ṽ3cei (i =1,…, 5) of the vector (ṽ3ce) is the system considered component ei (i =1,…, 5) resilience solutions set. It includes (k+1) resilience solutions subsets ṽ3ceidj (i = 1, …, 5; j = 0, …, k). The implementation of resilience solutions under ṽ3ceidj (i =1,…, 5; j = 0, …, k) reduces the vulnerability under the subset ṽ2ceidj (i =1,…, 5; j = 0, …, k).
Resilience to climate change is multidimensional. Resilience solutions subsets are:
- ṽ3ce_scial, social resilience solutions subset;
- ṽ3ce_economic, economic resilience solutions subset;
- ṽ3ce_environmental, environmental resilience solutions subset;
- 3ce _human, human resilience solutions subset;
- ṽ3ce_scientific, scientific resilience solutions subset;
- ṽ3ce_technological, technological resilience solutions subset;
- ṽ3ce_institutional, institutional resilience solutions subset;
- ṽ3ce_policy, political resilience solutions subset.
Climate resilience vectors are used to elaborate climate change resilience information triangle, illustrated by figure 1. It is a tool for synthesizing, for the considered system, information to develop multi-dimensional resilience processes. This triangle could also be a decision-making tool for communication and dialogue actions for climate resilience.
The vulnerability factors of the vector ṽ2ce can be used to develop subsets of vulnerability indicators for the system considered. The procedure is as follows:
- choose a vulnerability factor vf of ṽ3ce;
- the vulnerability indicator ivf associated with vf is defined as follows: proportion of the vulnerability indicated by vf which remains to be addressed;
For decision making:
- ṽ2ceid0 (i = 1, …, 5) vulnerability factors are used to develop 0-order vulnerability indicators;
- ṽ2ceid1 (i = 1, …, 5) vulnerability factors are used to develop first-order vulnerability indicators;
- ……………………………………………………………………………………………………
- ṽ2ceidk (i = 1, …, 5) vulnerability factors are used to develop k-order vulnerability indicators;
- ṽ2ce_scial vulnerability factors can be used to develop social vulnerability indicators;
- ṽ2ce_economic vulnerability factors can be used to develop economic vulnerability indicators;
- ṽ2ce_environmental vulnerability factors can be used to develop environmental vulnerability indicators;
- ṽ2ce _human vulnerability factors can be used to develop human vulnerability indicators;
- ṽ2ce_scientific vulnerability factors can be used to develop scientific vulnerability indicators;
- ṽ2ce_technological vulnerability factors can be used to develop technological vulnerability indicators;
- ṽ2ce_institutional vulnerability factors can be used to develop institutional indicators of vulnerability;
- ṽ2ce_politics vulnerability factors can be used to develop political vulnerability indicators.
3.2. Gender and social inclusion integration vectors
The Badolo ClimResilience framework uses four vectors for gender and social inclusion integration. These are the vector ḡ of social groups for gender and social inclusion, climate change specific impacts vector ṽ1ḡ, climate change specific vulnerabilities vector ṽ2ḡ and climate change specific resilience solutions vector ṽ3ḡ.
The component ḡi (i =1,…, 5) of the vector ḡ is the social group specifically concerned by the impact chain ṽ1cei (i =1, …, 5):
- ḡ1 is the social group specifically concerned by the impact chain ṽ1ce1;
- ḡ2 is the social group specifically concerned by the impact chain ṽ1ce2;
- ḡ3 is the social group specifically concerned by the impact chain ṽ1ce3;
- ḡ4 is the social group specifically concerned by the impact chain ṽ1ce4;
- ḡ5 is the social group specifically concerned by the impact chain ṽ1ce5
A social group ḡi (i =1, …, 5) results from the combination of (k +1) social subgroups:
- the social subgroup specifically concerned by the direct impact ṽ1ceid0;
- the social subgroup specifically concerned by the indirect impact ṽ1ceid1;
- the social subgroup specifically concerned by the indirect impact ṽ1ceid2;
- …………………………………………………………………………….;
- the social subgroup specifically concerned by the indirect impact ṽ1ceidk.
A component:
- ṽ1ḡi (i =1, …, 5) of the vector ṽ1ḡ is the subset of climate change specific impacts for the social group ḡi (i =1, …, 5). Specific impacts of climate change should be identified with the participation of relevant social groups. When efficient gender and social inclusion integration policies are implemented, the specific impacts of climate change are reduced to residual impacts, ṽ1ḡi (i = 1, …, 5) ≈ Ø;
- ṽ2ḡi (i =1,…, 5) of the vector (ṽ2ḡ) is the social group ḡi (i =1, …, 5) specific vulnerability factors to climate change subset;
- ṽ3ḡi (i =1,…, 5) of the vector (ṽ3ḡ) is the subset of specific resilience solutions to climate change of the social group ḡi (i =1,…, 5).
For gender and social inclusion integration promotion, the information matrix for gender and social inclusion illustrated by the table 1 could be developed and used.
Table 1 Information matrix for gender and social inclusion integration
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Social groups
|
Subsets of specific impacts of climate change
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Subsets of specific vulnerability factors
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Subsets of specific climate change resilience solutions
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ḡ1
|
ṽ1ḡ1
|
ṽ2ḡ1
|
ṽ3ḡ1
|
ḡ2
|
ṽ1ḡ2
|
ṽ2ḡ2
|
ṽ3ḡ2
|
ḡ3
|
ṽ1ḡ3
|
ṽ2ḡ3
|
ṽ3ḡ3
|
ḡ4
|
ṽ1ḡ4
|
ṽ2ḡ4
|
ṽ3ḡ4
|
ḡ5
|
ṽ1ḡ5
|
ṽ2ḡ5
|
ṽ3ḡ5
|
3.3. Community conflict risks integration vectors
The vectors for community conflict risks integration are the vector ṽ1ke of conflict risks linked to the impacts of climate change, the vector ṽ2ke of contextual vulnerability factors to conflict risks and the vector ṽ3ke of resilience solutions to conflict risks.
The component:
- ṽ1kei (i =1, …, 5) of the vector (ṽ1ke) is the subset of conflict risks linked to the impact chain ṽ1cei (i =1,…, 5). These conflicts can be social, economic, environmental, institutional or political conflicts. They strongly depend on the system and context considered.
- ṽ2kei (i = 1, …, 5) of the vector (ṽ2ke) is the subset of contextual vulnerability factors to the conflict risks under ṽ1kei (i =1, …, 5). Vulnerability factors should be identified in an inclusive and participatory manner
- ṽ3kei (i = 1, …, 5) of the vector (ṽ3ke) is the subset of resilience solutions to conflict risks under ṽ2kei (i =1,…, 5). In practice, social, economic, environmental, human, scientific, technological, institutional or political resilience solutions should be identified in an inclusive and participatory manner.
The vectors ṽ1ke, ṽ2ke and ṽ3ke can be used to elaborate the information triangle for community conflicts risks integration. It is illustrated by figure 2.
3.4. Climate migration integration vectors
The vectors for climate migration integration are the ṽ1me vector of climate migration risks, the ṽ2me vector of contextual vulnerability factors to climate migration risks and the ṽ3me vector of resilience solutions to climate migration risks.
A component:
- ṽ1mei (i =1, …, 5) of the vector (ṽ1e) is the subset of climate migration risks linked to the impact chain ṽ1cei (i =1, …, 5);
- ṽ2mei (i = 1, …, 5) of the vector (ṽ2me) is the subset of contextual vulnerability factors to climate migration risks under ṽ1kei (i =1, …, 5);
- ṽ3mei (i = 1, …, 5) of the vector (ṽ3me) is the subset of resilience solutions to climate migration risks under ṽ1mei (i =1, …, 5).
3.5. Greenhouse gas emissions reduction vectors
The vectors for greenhouse gas emissions reduction integration in resilience plans are the vector ṽ1he and the vector ṽ2he:
A component:
- ṽ1hei (i =1,…, 5) of the vector (ṽhe) is the subset of greenhouse gas emissions risks linked to the resilience solutions under ṽ3cei (i =1, … , 5);
- ṽ2hei (i = 1, …, 5) of the vector (ṽ2he) is the subset of resilience solutions to greenhouse gas emissions risks under ṽ1hei (i =1, …, 5)
3.6. Resilience configurations and trajectories matrix
The resilience configurations and trajectories matrix, which is illustrated by table 2, is the main aspect of the ClimResilience framework. The resilience trajectory is subdivided into several segments of resilience trajectories of less complexity, to achieve partial resilience configurations at specified resilience horizons.
Table 2 Resilience configurations and trajectories matrix
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Resilience
horizons
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Resilience trajectory segments
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Resilience configurations
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Information family groups
associated with resilience
trajectory segments
|
h1
|
th1
|
ẽh1
|
- ẽh1ṽ1ce, ẽh1ṽ2ce, ẽh1ṽ3ce,
- ẽh1ṽ1ḡ, ẽh1ṽ2ḡ, ẽh1ṽ3ḡ
- ẽh1ṽ1ke, ẽh1ṽ2ke, ẽh1ṽ3ke,
- ẽh1ṽ1me, ẽh1ṽ2me, ẽh1ṽ3me,
- ẽh1ṽ1he, ẽh1ṽ2he
|
h2
|
th2
|
ẽh2
|
- ẽh2ṽ1ce, ẽh2ṽ2ce, ẽh2ṽ3ce,
- ẽh2ṽ1ḡ, ẽh2ṽ2ḡ, ẽh2ṽ3ḡ
- ẽh2ṽ1ke, ẽh2ṽ2ke, ẽh2ṽ3ke,
- ẽh2ṽ1me, ẽh2ṽ2me, ẽh2ṽ3me,
- ẽh2ṽ1he, ẽh2ṽ2he
|
……………….
|
……………….
|
……………….
|
…………………………………………..
|
hp
|
thp
|
ẽhp
|
- ẽhpṽ1ce, ẽhpṽ2ce, ẽhpṽ3ce,
- ẽhpṽ1ḡ, ẽhpṽ2ḡ, ẽhpṽ3ḡ
- ẽhpṽ1ke, ẽhpṽ2ke, ẽhpṽ3ke,
- ẽhpṽ1me, ẽhpṽ2me, ẽhpṽ3me,
- ẽhpṽ1he, ẽhpṽ2he
|
A resilience trajectory segment (thi) achieves at the resilience horizon (hi) the partial configuration resilience ẽhi (i =1,…, p). The families of information and solutions related are:
- ẽhiṽ1ce, ẽhiṽ2ce and ẽhiṽ3ce families of information and solutions for climate partial resilience;
- ẽhiṽ1ḡ, ẽhiṽ2ḡ and ẽhiṽ3ḡ families of information and solutions for gender and social inclusion partial integration;
- ẽhiṽ1ke, ẽhiṽ1ke and ẽhiṽ1ke families of information and solutions for partial community conflicts risks integration;
- ẽhiṽ1me, ẽhiṽ1me and ẽhiṽ1me families of information and solutions for climate migration risks partial integration;
- ẽhiṽ1he and ẽhiṽ2he families of information and solutions for greenhouse gas emissions partial reduction.
A partial resilience configuration ẽhi (i = 1, …, p) is marked by:
- climate change residual impacts, ẽhiṽ1ce ≈ Ø
- climate change residual vulnerabilities, ẽhiṽ2ce ≈ Ø
- climate change specific residual impacts, ẽhiṽ1ḡ ≈ Ø
- climate change specific residual Vulnerably, ẽhiṽ2ḡ ≈ Ø
- community conflicts residual risks of, ẽhiṽ1ke ≈ Ø
- climate migration residual risks, ẽhiṽ1me ≈ Ø