The main results of the mapping procedure were discussed in this part. The plot in figure.2 shows the relation between the covid-19 and population density. The figure.3 show the evolution of Covid-19 infected cases in function of time (given in Days).
Insert Figure 2 here.
The figure .2 shows the mathematical relation between the covid-19 and the density of population by sequare kilometers. A correlation of R²=0.329 (R≈ 0,6) express a good relationship between the two factors. The model in equation.1 gives the Covid-19 contamination cases in function of the population density.
Pcovid: is the predicted covid-19 cases; Popdensity : is the density of population by km².
A new model is derived from the analysis of cases, to predict evolution of contamination risk in function of time (Figure.3). Analysis concludes that very person can contaminate 4 people.
Insert Figure 3 here.
The model obtained have an exponential form, it is given by the equation (eq.2):
Pcovid : is the predicted covid-19 infection; t: is time given in days
By taking an incubation time of 14 days, we suppose that every person can contaminate 3 persons we can establish a time function of Virus propagation in Algeria.
A simulation of the actual situation by taking into account our scenario show that the cases of Covid-19 in Algeria can be arise from 1400 cases actually to 14 000 infections cases.
The analysis of these results allows us to formulate a new model to predict the Covid-19 infections. The new equation was given as below:
Map in figure.4 show the spatial variation of Covid-19 cases in Algeria as reported by the national ministry of health.
Insert Figure 4 here.
The spatial distribution of infected cases shows that the center of the infection is localized in the North of Algeria. The isolation of the epicenter of the diseases can reduce the propagation along the country.
The map in figure.5 shows the spatial predicted value of covid-19. The simulation period is ranged from 7/04/2020 to 30/04/2020.
Insert Figure 5 here.
The velocity of propagation is high which can damage the health structure and the capacity of the hospital to manage the arising cases (Shannon 2020, Wendy 2020). Our work gives a global idea about the propagation risk of this virus. A lot of parameters can accelerate this velocity (Road traffic, density of contact, space markets and commercial centers, Administrations and services local) all of this kind of structures can accelerate the propagation of contagious virus (ACSS 2020).
In this work a map of spatial covid-19 was established to demonstrate the evolution of this contagious virus in Algeria. The map show regions with low evolution are located in the south of the country. Regions of medium evolution are located in the high steppes and finally regions of high propagation risks are located in the North.
The high propagation of this virus in the north of the country is due to the high population density, high transport and air traffics .These factors are the primary causes of the rapid evolution of this dangerous contagions virus.
In conclusion, the velocity of propagation of COVID-19 is high which need an intensified efforts to reduce the contagious and contamination Risk. This study illustrates a geographic analysis of the propagation of this virus.
The simulation shows a high propagation of this virus in Area with high population density. The simulation also show that the number of cases will achieves 14 000 cases in 30/04/2020. Map show that COVID-19 epicenter is localized in the north of the region. Algerian authority work hardly to reduce the propagation of this virus. The efforts of all sectors in Algeria concentrated to reduce the death number by application of Chloroquine protocol which gives good results according to the clinical recovered persons. The Algerian ministry of health affirms the good results of this medicaments type.