Will ‘o the Wisps: non-traditional data to inform modern science

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Will ‘o the Wisps: non-traditional data to inform modern science

https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4077431/v1

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The modern climate is changing faster and on larger spatial scales than ever in human history. Though the modern instrument-based record of Earth observations reflects decades of critical work, multi-century time series may be required to understand and forecast key elements of Earth system dynamics. Here, we explore the utility of non-traditional climate data records – observations reported without using modern instruments or standardized measurement protocols – to illuminate important patterns of climate change that predate modern methodologies and tools. We compile a list of diverse datasets collected during the past 500 years including landscape paintings, sea lore, and fish haul data. This initial review and analysis present novel possibilities for scientists across regions and disciplines to reconstruct past climate in ways that complement more traditional methods.

Biological sciences/Ecology/Climate change ecology

Biological sciences/Ecology/Ecological modelling

Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences

Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences

Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences

Modern Earth system instrumentation and recordkeeping began in the late 1800s, with the Metre Convention in Paris on 20 May 1875 marking the establishment of a standardized set of international weights and measures(1). The 1700s and 1800s were crucial for European naturalists and emerging paleoclimatologists as they characterized the ice ages, evolution, and speciation (2, 3). Instruments to directly measure atmospheric gases, plant respiration, light refraction, and many other dynamics began to emerge (4), and scientists tracked precipitation, temperature, circulation, vegetation ranges, and animal movement utilizing the same standardized methodology (Table 1).

However, as the modern climate rapidly changes, scientists increasingly require data that predate this 19th-century scientific revolution to understand baselines and extremes. For example, over 300 years of regional ecological data may be required to characterize critical ecosystem tipping points (5). Therefore, quantifying global ecosystems before modern instrumentation remains challenging, often relying on paleo proxies, including ice cores, tree rings, and isotopes (6–8). These proxies often do not provide seasonal data, and there are substantial complexities in preserving and analyzing the records (8–13).

The diversity of data from modern satellite, airborne, drone, and in-situ measurements continues to grow (14, 15) but cannot capture multi-decadal and multi-century changes predating use (16). Multi-century records of Earth observations are critical to understanding modern system dynamics but there are few multi-century baseline data sets.

Though not typically regarded as scientific data, oral, visual, and written histories may record key aspects of long-term climate dynamics. While these records are often considered more a part of cultural than scientific tradition, folk or non-traditional data that predate modern scientific methods may be able to extend the current climate and ecosystem records (17–19). Though our understandings of the drivers of change in the natural world have evolved over time (e.g. the development of germ theory and particle physics), important data may underlie fantastic stories.

From sea ice boundary observations to the seasonality of vernal flowering, pre-industrial records documented weather, climate, and animal movement (Table 1). Records of seafaring, trade routes, crop surpluses and failures, and fishing hauls proliferate across cultures (Table 1, Fig. 1). Observations from British shiplogs of have already filled gaps in the Indian Ocean record for sea surface temperatures (33). Style and color change in Monet and Turner paintings have been used to infer trends in air pollution during the Industrial Revolution (43). Glacier retreat records from village landscape paintings have been used to extend photographic records of long-term glacier melt rates further into the past (20, 21). Despite these successes, non-traditional climate data have not been applied broadly to critical climate change problems. As ecosystem baselines increasingly shift on yearly to decadal scales from climate change (5, 22), there is increased urgency to fill the gaps between modern records and paleo data. Updating Earth system records with non-traditional data that span centuries could support a greater understanding of current environmental change (22, 23).

This review is a first effort to identify and catalogue a wide range of non-traditional climate proxies. To validate this approach, we also analyze one in-depth case study on greenhouse gas emissions in pre-modern times. The compiled records and reviews span fine art (20, 24–30), shipping manifests (7, 31–34), oral and written compendia, species movement records (2, 35–40), and trade (41–43). We highlight these records as an example of how non-traditional data can be integrated into modern science.

Human stories, or generational knowledge, can fill the gap between paleo records of ice core records, tree rings, and isotopes and modern instrument science (16). Historical data sources are at our disposal as an index for regional changes, where generations of naturalists, healers, and explorers could help supplement our current observations.

Table 1

Non-traditional climate proxies cataloged for this review are listed by dataset type, with inferred information, sources, and region in which these records were found.
Dataset	Inferred data	Source	Region
Species Migration	Long-term temperature and vegetation changes	Written records (2, 35–37)	Global
Vegetation Range change	Long-term temperature changes	Written records, Woodcrafts, derelict ships, and household items (7, 43, 51, 54, 55)	Global
Ocean dynamics	El Nino or La Nina, Atmospheric circulation, Climate, Weather	Ship logs, Traditional Knowledge (31, 32, 44, 45, 57, 58)	Global
Flowering Vegetation	Temperature, Seasonality changes	Written records (38, 52, 53)	Europe and Asia
Landcover	Precipitation, Temperature, Insulation	Landscape paintings (24, 25, 27–30, 47, 50)	Europe and Asia
Ice extent, type, density	Air and Sea Surface Temperature, Ocean circulation	Landscape paintings, Ship Logs, Traditional Knowledge (19, 26, 33, 34, 46, 48, 50, 62)	Europe and Asia
Air particulate density	Aerosols, Carbon emissions, Atmospheric circulation, Precipitation	Impressionist paintings (26, 49)	Europe
Rise and Fall of Empires	Long-term temperature, precipitation, and vegetation changes	Written and oral records, archaeological records (8, 60–64)	e.g. Maya, Chinese, Roman, Viking
Crop change or failure	Temperature, Precipitation, Climate changes	Written and oral records (12, 66, 67)	Global
Fish type and location Hauls	Sea surface temperature, Species diversity, various ocean dynamics	Port records, Archaeological Records (41, 42, 56, 59)	Global
Animal size	Temperature, Vegetation	Written, Paleontological and archaeological records (37, 39, 40, 59)	Global
Reservoir Capacity	Precipitation	Written and paintings (20, 60, 64, 66)	Global

Ship logs

Starting with the Voyages of Discovery in the 1500s and transitioning into global commerce in the 1600s, European merchant and naval vessels regularly recorded weather information, including precipitation, atmospheric conditions, sea ice extent, and sea surface temperature (31). These records contain large numbers of observations across the global oceans and are of great potential value. Several international projects, such as the Climatological Database for the World’s Oceans (CLIWOC) and the Recovery of Logbooks and International Marine Data (RECLAIM), have digitized thousands of shipboard logbooks. Most of these records are now stored in the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS), providing surface marine data from as early as 1662 (32, 44). Together, these programs extracted millions of observations on sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, wind force, atmospheric circulation indices, and weather conditions (32, 44, 45). The application of these logbooks has so far included reconstructions of sea ice conditions in the Arctic (33, 34), understanding baseline ice and snow cover thickness in the Antarctic (46), and knowledge of historical hurricanes and monsoons (32).

However, investigations have also revealed data inconsistencies due to variations in observational methods across time and between ships (45). Early ship observations primarily consisted of subjective meteorological descriptions. The Beaufort wind scale was not commonly used until the 1840s, and instrumental data did not become widespread until barometer and thermometer reporting practices were standardized in 1853 (45). As a result, digitizing subjective records remains extremely labor-intensive and requires deciphering archaic terminology across numerous languages. Despite these limitations, logbooks may provide critical observations that predate modern ocean observations. With extensive collections of logbooks still undigitized, future efforts will continue to expand the range and usefulness of this climate record.

Landscape paintings

Landscape paintings also provide snapshots of the natural world before modern instrumental records, and recent analysis has illustrated their utility in reconstructing past environments (20, 25, 26). Many paintings, especially from artists with topographical landscape training, display consistent and accurate observations of surface conditions, vegetation, species, and habitat (20, 24, 25).

Researchers have also identified reliable representations of cloud formation, weather conditions, and atmospheric phenomena, which can be used to draw inferences about long-term changes (47, 48). For example, impressionist paintings in London and Paris over the 19th century accurately captured changes to the optical environment due to anthropogenic aerosol emissions, providing evidence for historical trends in air pollution before quantitative measurements began (49). In another example, the color of snow, ice, and watercolor in polar paintings reveal information about glaciers' reflectance and health (50). Yet, analyses also indicate that some paintings do not depict the landscape entirely faithfully (47), overrepresent certain climatic conditions (26), or romanticize natural features like fjords and glaciers (50). Although more work is needed to assess how art can inform quantitative science, paintings may provide critical insights into ecosystems, land use, and climate changes through the centuries.

Business and personal records

Archival records and oral knowledge have also been used to great scientific value. For example, observations from old diaries have been used to characterize the vegetation and landscape of the Mexican Bajío in the 16th century (51, 52), to track the first arrivals of migrating birds (2, 35, 36), and to reconstruct changes in spring mean temperatures using phenological data deduced from cherry blossom records and viewing parties in Japan (53).

Many historical records also provide continuous environmental records over significant periods. For instance, the high demand for timber for shipbuilding worldwide led to detailed national records and surveys of trees, mainly oak, which could be used to assess ecological forest changes (54, 55). Similarly, centuries of commercial fishery catch data provide insights into fish population abundances and shifts in aquatic ecosystems (42, 56). Beyond these written sources, ethical integration of Indigenous community knowledge provides a baseline for understanding regional ecosystems across scales (57, 58).

Integrating archaeology and paleoclimatology proxies

Finally, archeological and paleoclimate studies are critical in understanding ancient ecosystem structure, human history, and responses to environmental change. Archeological research on prehistoric coastal settlements has provided evidence of anthropogenic influence on marine ecosystems, improving the accuracy of baselines for fisheries management (56, 59). Historical trends in crop cultivation and forestry can be supplemented with studies of tree ring density to determine weather and climate controls on growth. (7, 12)

Paleoclimate methods provide excellent proxy data for precipitation, water availability, humidity, and seasonal temperatures (8, 60–62). Combined with historical documentation, this data can reveal vital insights into the impact of the climate on ancient societies. Studies have shown that during wet phases, the Maya experienced rapid growth, while multi-decadal droughts corresponded with social instability, depopulation, and collapse (60, 61, 63, 64). Similarly, the failure of Norse colonies and Northern European communities often coincided with a prolonged period of low temperatures (12, 62, 65–67), or sea level rise (68), and the Mongol Empire's expansion followed the spread of steppe grassland after the wet conditions of the Little Ice Age (8).

Applying these non-traditional data to the existing paleo and modern instrumental records considerably expands the baseline of documented climate conditions. To continue to expand the breadth of records available, identifying potential non-traditional records and integrating them with modern tools and paleo data will prove essential.

The Will ‘o the Wisp myth is an ideal study to demonstrate how non-traditional folklore data has the potential to expand the instrument climate record (69). The oldest known reference to Will ‘o the Wisp dates to the 13th century in the medieval English text, “The Prose Edda.” In the text, the phenomenon is called “wandering flame” (70, 71). The phenomenon is often described as a flickering light appearing at night over marshy or boggy landscapes, attributed to various supernatural explanations over the centuries (70, 72).

Scientists now believe that Will ‘o the Wisp are created when warming organic matter in bogs or wetlands is digested by microbes, releasing methane gas and, sometimes, a flame (69, 73–75). The stories detailing Will ‘o the Wisp events faded after the 18th century, as bogs were drained across Europe (74, 76–79). As the landscape changed, these stories transitioned from local advice to folklore, negating their veracity (80, 81).

Today, methane emissions from warming wetlands are recognized as the largest and most uncertain natural source in the global methane budget (82–84). However, identifying these biogenic methane hot spots is an ongoing challenge as wetland size, coverage, and methane release vary over time (74, 76, 85, 86). While modern tools can identify methane emissions, satellites have only reliably captured methane within the last 5–10 years, and observations require high spatial resolution (74, 83, 87, 88).

Therefore, if Will ‘o the Wisp folklore could provide a non-traditional greenhouse gas record for biogenic methane release, it could help researchers pre-screen emission sources and identify trends predating the instrument record (69, 80, 89). As a first-order effort, we integrated Will ‘o the Wisp lore with modern instrument records (Fig. 2) to determine the correlation between modern and historical methane sources and identify potential overlaps in methane emission.

Study Domain

We used historical maps of wetland extent taken from government surveys across the British Isles to test our hypothesis that emissions and the magnitude of these emissions correlated with Will o’ the Wisps sightings (Fig. 2). Below we describe several sites that we investigated in detail.

South Uist, Scotland (U.K.) is a long island in the Outer Hebrides which has been inhabited since the Neolithic period. Sculpted by the last ice age ~ 11,000 CE years ago, this landscape is characterized by rocky uplands, moorlands, lochs to the east, machair grasslands, and sandy coasts along the western shoreline (90). The first Will ‘o the Wisp sighting in this location was in 1812, but the stories persisted over decades, with the sources changing from roaming, lost souls to punished blacksmiths (72). The cold, windy, and damp countryside was often referred to in the myths as souls of the departed carrying coals and looking for a place to warm themselves (72).

Ferbane, Ireland (Rep. Ireland) is situated within the Irish Midlands, an esker-rich landscape of ridgelines, ancient raised peat boglands, and geological deposits from the last glacial retreat. Under this acidic, waterlogged landscape, a breadth of species and habitats are adapted to and reliant on these bogland ecosystems to survive. The Irish countryside was one of the most prominent locations for Will ‘o the Wisp lore, integrating changing cultures to explain sightings attributed to fairies and lost souls until the 1800s (70, 72, 91).

The Fenlands (U.K.) in the East Midlands of England are a region characterized by marshlands, peat bogs, and agricultural lowlands (3,900 km²). Imperial land reclamation and artificial drainage networks targeted these fertile wetland habitats for over two centuries in favor of pastoral farming and other agricultural practices (Fig. 2). This region was home to the ‘Lantern Man’ Wisp story, a complicated tale that ends with a haunted figure carrying a flame through the moors starting in 1100 (92, 93). These sightings continued through the 1800s when they became more famous through the popular poetry of John Clare (93).

Aberystwyth, Wales (U.K.) is marked by bogs, flowing hills, and a calm coastline (71). The first recorded wisp sighting was in a village nestled among the foothills of the Cambrian Mountains by medieval poet Dafydd ap Gwilym in the 14th century. Every hollow surrounding him contained a hundred Will ‘o the Wisps in his account. Inspired by this story, Lord Milton referenced it in Paradise Lost in 1663, and William Shakespeare discussed the lights in his play Henry IV, making this region synonymous with Wisp stories (71, 72).

The East Midlands (U.K.) occur in England’s central region where heathlands, river valleys, and sandstone flatlands anchor the landscape. The region was once rife with endemic natural wetlands, but these have been drained and transformed for agriculture and urban development (71, 72). The notable fairy lore of the Midlands suggested that the Will ‘o the Wisps were lanterns the small-winged people used to lead travelers astray (93). These stories created a considerable tourist industry that continues to this day throughout the Midlands region.

Analysis and Results

Utilizing Will ‘o the Wisp reports to localize our analyses, we reviewed historical surveys, maps, and accounts of overlap between bogs and wisp lore from 1300–2012 (70, 78, 79). We then integrated Will ‘o the Wisp sightings with methane trend analysis using remote sensing (Sentinel-5P, TROPOMI 2019–2023) and regression (Landsat, 1984–2023; Sentinel-1, 2014–2023)(85, 94, 95). After adding a time-variant, we employed mean aggregation techniques and incorporated minimum-maximum standardization.

To provide land cover context for the sources of methane release, we utilized the reprocessed data from the Landsat Collection 2 archive (i.e., Landsat 5 T.M., Landsat 7 ETM+, Landsat 8 OLI/TRS, and Landsat 9 OLI-2/TIRS-2). Specifically, we disentangled vegetation and moisture signals by visualizing shortwave-infrared, near-infrared, and visible bands with animated mosaicking. This methodology permits the identification of methane release across all available instrument data (See supplemental information for full methodology, additional visualizations, and uncertainty analysis).

Our analysis confirmed that modern biogenic methane release is colocated with areas of considerable Will ‘o the Wisp lore (Fig. 3). Wisp sightings were useful for identifying ongoing biogenic methane release, allowing rapid identification. While this analysis identified the potential for increased efficiency in locating biogenic methane hot spots, further assessment will be required. However, the potential for integrating novel non-traditional data records to expand the instrument record is promising.

To forecast the impacts of climate change, we must fully understand the Earth’s history and evolution. Reconstructing climate in the gap between the paleo record that utilizes proxy data and modern instrument science has been an ongoing issue. However, non-traditional data records contain key information that could be used to reconstruct past climate and provide context for contemporary observations. Traditional climate proxies (6, 96) tell us that our current rate of atmospheric warming is the most rapid in planetary history- but could stories and old records of humans past tell us how to prepare for a changing future? Non-traditional data can validate or falsify assumptions, point us toward key research areas, and fill knowledge gaps.

Folklore endures. Though records have been lost to fires, plagues, violence, and colonization, the stories passed down through generations persist. Alternative data could fill gaps in biodiversity and climate data, provide a longer record to strengthen model projections, and baseline changing ecosystems (5, 97). In this time of unprecedented environmental change, it is more important than ever to elevate and utilize all the ways of knowing and understanding the Earth.

Competing interests

The authors have no competing interests to declare

Author Contribution

KR, BG and EW did the analysis and wrote the main manuscript. EW and BG prepared figures. CM did editing and review. All authors reviewed the manuscript.

Acknowledgments

A portion of this work was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NM0018D0004). JPL is within the unceded land of the people known as the Tongva (Gabrielieño) within the limits of the Kizh Nation. © 2023. All rights reserved

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Will ‘o the Wisps: non-traditional data to inform modern science

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Abstract

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I. Introduction

II. Characteristic non-traditional climate records

III. Will O’ the Wisps analysis

IV. Analysis of Will O' the Wisps study

V. Next steps for utilizing non-traditional data

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Competing interests

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Acknowledgments

References

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