The data reveals a consistent upward trend of BVL, with prevalence values steadily increasing from 3789.39 (95%CI, 4263.32–3350.32) in 1990 to 5336.64 (95%CI, 6198.79–4611.47) in 2019. The prevalence of BVL in Kuwait exhibits a consistent upward trend throughout the observed period, starting at 3528.19 (95%CI, 3952.34- 3098.41) in 1990 and steadily rising to 4541.37(95%CI, 5155.83–3967.48) in 2019. The prevalence of BVL in Oman shows a consistent upward trend from 1990 to 2019. In 1990, the prevalence was 4786.45 (95% CI, 5345.37–4268.96), and it steadily increased over the subsequent years, reaching 5269.99 (95% CI, 5837.82–4688.31) in 2019. The prevalence of BVL in Qatar demonstrates a notable trajectory from 1990 to 2019. Commencing at 14942.65 (95% CI, 16960.86–13061.37) in 1990, the prevalence steadily increased over the years. The observed trends indicate a consistent rise, reaching 102405.15 (95% CI, 117817.99–88627.79) in 2019. The prevalence figure of BVL indicates an increasing trend over the observed period, starting at 866643.40 [95%CI, 947354.4774–787898.3192] in 1990 and steadily rising to 1824519.93 [95%CI, 2026299.456- 1641659.387] in 2019. The prevalence of BVL in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) reveals distinct patterns over the years from 1990 to 2019. In 1990, the prevalence stood at 3090.80 (95% CI, 3501.21–2693.78), marking the beginning of the observed period. Subsequently, the prevalence exhibited fluctuating trends, reaching its lowest point in 2007 at 2868.01 (95% CI, 3272.86–2472.47). Following this dip, the prevalence experienced a notable rise, reaching 3854.58 (95% CI, 4468.08–3261.26) in 2019. Figure 1
Sex difference
Bahrain: In 1990, the prevalence of BVL was higher among females 4033.15 (95%CI, 4510.2–3583.6) compared to males 3612.36 (95%CI, 4097.4–3173.4). Over the years, both genders experienced an increasing trend in blindness prevalence. The prevalence among females consistently surpassed that of males throughout the observed period. Kuwait: In 1990, both females 3484.03 (95%CI, 3899.0–3075.2) and males 3561.09(95%CI, 4023.5–3118.0) had relatively similar prevalence rates. Over the years, there has been a noticeable increase in blindness prevalence for both genders. Oman: In 1990, the prevalence of blindness was higher among females 4920.2 (95%CI, 5540.5–4373.7) compared to males 4690.9 (95% CI, 5233.0–4167.8). Over the years, both genders experienced an increasing trend in blindness prevalence. The prevalence among females consistently surpassed that of males throughout the observed period. Qatar: The pattern in Qatar was like Oman and Saud Arabia, the prevalence was higher among females than males in 1990, 3557.0 995%CI, 3952.5-3144.8) vs 3257.5(95%CI, 3753.6- 2804.2). The pattern was increasing over time with more cases reported among females than males in most of the studied periods. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Female predominance persisted in Saudi Arabia. The prevalence among female in 1990 was 5496.9(95%CI, 6002.9- 5015.9) while in males it was 5325.9 (5845.6- 4814.8). The prevalence showed a marked decrease between 2001 and 2014 then it increased steadily since then. UAE: the pattern was different in UAE males’ prevalence was higher than females 3100.8 (95%CI, 3531.5-2682.3) VS 3072.5 (95%CI, 3441.9- 2699.9). A sharp decline was reported between 2007 and 2010 then a steady increase was observed. Figure 2
Figure 3 illustrates that the highest prevalence of BVL was reported among individuals aged 55 years and above, surpassing the rates observed in other age groups. This pattern remained consistent across all the countries examined. Notably, within this age group, there was a discernible decline in the prevalence of blindness in the studied countries.
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Figure 3: Prevalence of blindness across different age groups in GCC
The DALYs due to blindness showed a steady increase since 1990. In Bahrain DALYs increased from 854.8 (95%CI, 1175.0- 588.0) to be 2870.8 (95%CI, 4060.5–1974.1) in 2019. In Kuwait, the pattern increased from 2571.1 (95%CI, 3581.1–1767.4) in 1990 to 7646.3 (10814.5- 5182.3) in 2019. In Oman, it should steady increase from 4259.9 (95%CI, 5899.8–2967.9) in 1990 to 10623.0 (95%CI, 14582.1–7367.5) in 2019. Qatar followed a similar pattern, DALYs in 1990 was 660.70 (95%CI, 918.9- 459.5) in 1990 and increased to 3839.8 (5445.1–2602.3) in 2019. In Saudi Arabia, DALYs was the highest compared to other GCC, it was 57064.5 (95%CI, 77819.6–40709.6) in 1990 reaching 89962.6 (95%ci, 122805.6–63397.4) in 2019. In UAE, DALYs was 2487.5 (3435.4–1703.3) in 1990 and increased to 13430.4 (18933.8–9158.5). Figure 4
Forecasting of BVL for 2020–2024
The predicted prevalence of BVL in Bahrain ranges from 5528.8 (95%CI, 5502.8 to 5554.7) in 2020 to 6297.3 (95CI, 6605.6 in 2024) in 2024. Kuwait's forecast suggested a rise in blindness prevalence from 4602.1 (95%CI, 4548.9 to 4655.4) in 2020 to 4827.9(95%CI, 4524.6 to 5131.1) in 2024. Oman's predicted prevalence of BVL remains relatively stable, ranging from 5225.1 in 2022 to 5225.4 in 2023. The confidence intervals (5088.0 to 5362.2 in 2022; 4987.7 to 5462.8 in 2024) indicate a consistent level of confidence across the forecasted years. Qatar exhibited a substantial increase in forecasted BVL prevalence, starting from 107310.2 (95%CI, 106962.2 to 107658.2) in 2020 to 126162.9 (95%CI, 118927.5 to 133398.3) in 2024. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia showed a substantial rise in forecasted BVL prevalence, increasing from 1880842.0 (95%CI, 1876566.0 to 1885118.0) in 2020 to 2096529.0(95%CI, 2039773.0 to 2153286.0) in 2024. The forecast for the UAE showed a gradual increase in BVL prevalence, ranging from 5528.8 (95CI, 5502.8 to 5554.7) in 2020 to 6297.3 (95%CI, 5988.9 to 6605.6) in 2024. Table 1
Table 1
Predicted prevalence of blindness in GCC countries
Country | Year | Forecast | lower CI | Higher CI |
Bahrain | 2020 | 5528.8 | 5502.8 | 5554.7 |
2021 | 5720.9 | 5643.2 | 5798.6 |
2022 | 5913.0 | 5769.5 | 6056.5 |
2023 | 6105.1 | 5884.3 | 6326.0 |
2024 | 6297.3 | 5988.9 | 6605.6 |
Kuwait | 2020 | 4602.1 | 4548.9 | 4655.4 |
2021 | 4660.9 | 4550.0 | 4771.7 |
2022 | 4717.8 | 4544.4 | 4891.3 |
2023 | 4773.4 | 4535.3 | 5011.6 |
2024 | 4827.9 | 4524.6 | 5131.1 |
Oman | 2020 | 5260.6 | 5228.1 | 5293.1 |
2021 | 5238.9 | 5155.8 | 5322.0 |
2022 | 5225.1 | 5088.0 | 5362.2 |
2023 | 5225.4 | 5038.8 | 5412.0 |
2024 | 5225.3 | 4987.7 | 5462.8 |
Qatar | 2020 | 107310.2 | 106962.2 | 107658.2 |
2021 | 112074.8 | 110861.7 | 113287.9 |
2022 | 116767.9 | 114089.1 | 119446.6 |
2023 | 121450.5 | 116733.2 | 126167.8 |
2024 | 126162.9 | 118927.5 | 133398.3 |
KSA | 2020 | 1880842.0 | 1876566.0 | 1885118.0 |
2021 | 1935820.0 | 1923665.0 | 1947974.0 |
2022 | 1989910.0 | 1966212.0 | 2013608.0 |
2023 | 2043413.0 | 2004755.0 | 2082071.0 |
2024 | 2096529.0 | 2039773.0 | 2153286.0 |
UAE | 2020 | 5528.8 | 5502.8 | 5554.7 |
2021 | 5720.9 | 5643.2 | 5798.6 |
2022 | 5913.0 | 5769.5 | 6056.5 |
2023 | 6105.1 | 5884.3 | 6326.0 |
2024 | 6297.3 | 5988.9 | 6605.6 |