Table 4 shows the variables in first differences, being naturally differentiated with a lag, the results naturally show that there is stationarity between the variables in the model. The relationship between the variables was analysed using the KAO cointegration tests, and there is evidence of a long-term relationship, with the variables being integrated of order I(1).
The dependent variable exports causes the other explanatory variables, so the results suggest that there are strong reasons at the outset to support the possibility of making export forecasts.
The results generally show that there is, for example, a slowdown in exports from the outset. This slowdown necessarily has to do with the possible decreases that have taken place mainly in domestic production from the outset; these decreases will, however, be associated with the negative shocks coming from the international markets, especially the shocks that have originated from prices, for example.
On the other hand, when we try to quantify endogenous shocks, they are usually quantified by the increase or decrease in domestic production capacity, so there are strong reasons to support the existence of a plausible deceleration in production levels correlated with a significant slowdown in diamond exports to international markets.
The exchange rate shocks, however, show substantial decreases in diamond export levels. On the other hand, the results of the trade shocks are naturally irrelevant in explaining domestic production levels, but they do not plausibly affect export capacity. Thus, this result translates from the outset into significant economic resilience on the part of the largest diamond producers, especially Botswana, which naturally has a significant dependence on natural resources, based above all on its dependence on diamonds. However, there may be other plausible reasons that contribute significantly to this economic resilience, firstly because the largest producers have a fairly robust economy, based above all on significant infrastructure, which correlates plausibly with a strong and resilient extractive industry sector.
On the other hand, the exogenous shocks that come mainly from the international markets via price do not help to explain the real behaviour of diamond exports from the outset, so it is assumed that there is no direct influence on diamond exports from the outset, so there is in fact no direct correlation between shocks on the international markets and production levels from the outset.
Exchange rate shocks have proved to be relevant and significant at the 5% level when analysing, for example, the slowdown in domestic production, but there are strong reasons to plausibly support these results, on the one hand, the volatility of exchange rates on international markets, correlated with the approach of other exogenous shocks mainly of a different nature, such as political interference in some cases, and on the other hand, pandemic shocks, such as covid-19, for example, which ended up having a direct influence on international markets, especially the international diamond and oil markets from the outset.
The criteria used to choose the lags plausibly indicate the choice of a lag in the model, which is significantly used. On the other hand, the root of the complementary matrix nevertheless indicates optimum stability of the panel VAR model, which naturally shows from the outset that there are plausible conditions for estimating the panel VAR model using first differences.
Table 7 naturally shows the variance decomposition, the variance decomposition allows us to quantify the exogenous stimuli that come from international markets, thus, to the extent that the exogenous shocks are significantly quantifiable, there is naturally evidence of significant growth in production levels at the outset, thus, the exogenous shocks naturally allow us to quantify the non-internal influence, nevertheless stimulating production capacity, the results being significantly different from those found in (Mehrara & Mohaghegh , 2011)..
Thus, on the one hand, positive shocks quantifiable by price on international markets show strong evidence of increases in production, on the other hand, correlated with trade policy, plausibly quantifiable by the real effective exchange rate, shows to be relevant. However, positive shocks allow the start-up to significantly boost diamond production and exports. In particular, the results are in line with those found in (Gallo, Lescano, & Mordecki, 2020). .
Negative trade policy shocks show the economic resilience of some producer and dependent countries, for example Botswana naturally shows significant economic resilience. On the one hand, this resilience may be associated with production capacity, and on the other hand it may be significantly related to the levels of infrastructure that exist in the economy and the fact that the economy does not, for example, show unevenness related to the structure of production at the outset.
Naturally, endogenous stimuli make it possible to plausibly and significantly increase production levels from the outset, associated above all with the different endogenous shocks. On the other hand, there are strong reasons that have contributed to this increase, such as economic potential, quantifiable in the large diamond reserve capacities that countries have in particular. On the other hand, the results seem to reinforce the idea that there is, for example, greater economic resilience in countries that are economically dependent on more than one natural resource and countries that naturally have a diversified export matrix.
The stimuli that come from outside the markets, quantifiable from the outset by prices, for example in the presence of external interference, such as covid-19 and some political conflicts, which tend to have a direct and plausible influence on the international markets on the one hand, and on the financial markets on the other. However, the foreign exchange market is significantly influenced by the real effective exchange rate.
The probable endogenous stimuli, however, do not seem to be relevant to explaining the real and significant effect on diamond exports, especially from the largest producers. Thus, there are no reasons to support this premise from the outset.
We used Impulse Response Functions to quantify the different influences of the international markets, especially those arising from exogenous shocks and particularly some endogenous shocks, which help to identify the real behaviour of these variables.
On the other hand, with Impulse Response Functions, the initial aim is to quantify the possible effects of impulses on the dependent variable, so, in general terms, this quantification occurs naturally through the different shocks, whereby exogenous shocks end up directly influencing the endogenous variables in the model. This is especially true for economies with lower economic resilience.
In Figure 2, the Impulse Response Functions are estimated for the 10-year period. The positive shocks show a significant increase in production capacity at the outset, associated with the significant increases in endogenous shocks in the markets at the outset. On the other hand, the negative shocks show a slowdown in production levels, naturally in line with a significant slowdown in exports from the largest producers. On the other hand, the evidence naturally suggests that there is a significant slowdown in diamond exports from the outset, associated with a continued negative short-term stimulus from trade policy, which from the outset is strongly quantified in increased tariffs applied to natural resource commodities.
Quantifiable price shocks on international markets help to analyse how these shocks usually significantly affect domestic levels, especially diamond production capacity, although on the other hand, there are strong reasons that in principle help to measure the levels of production capacity that economies, in particular, have and that are correlated with the levels of rough diamond reserves, especially those in the largest producing countries.
On the one hand, due above all to the volatility of the international diamond markets and other international markets, the evidence nevertheless shows that there are strong reasons to support, for example, a slowdown in exports, associated above all with negative price shocks.
The possible exchange rate shocks, however, are not significant and plausible, on the other hand, these shocks are not relevant and do not explain their influence on production levels. The Real Effective Exchange Rate, however, shows sharp declines. These declines have to do with possible shocks in the foreign exchange market in particular, in line with the analysis made in (Gallo, Lescano , & Mordecki, 2020). .