4.1 Association of Genetically Predicted MS with NPB
Our comprehensive analysis identified 22 SNPs significantly associated with MS1 (P < 5×10−8). Utilizing linkage disequilibrium criteria with a reference panel and a threshold of r² = 0.001, we retained these 22 SNPs for the principal analysis. The F statistics (Mean = 13,663) confirmed the reliability of these genetic markers as robust instruments for MS1, devoid of statistical bias.
Employing a suite of MR methodologies(Figure 2), the IVW approach revealed a significant causal link between genetically predicted MS1 and NPB, evidenced by an OR of 1.116 (95% Confidence Interval [CI], 1.043-1.193; beta = 0.110, SE = 0.034, P-value = 0.001). This finding was corroborated by additional MR analyses: MR Egger (OR = 1.167; 95% CI, 1.038-1.312; beta = 0.155, SE = 0.060, P-value = 0.027), the WM method (OR = 1.153; 95% CI, 1.055-1.261; beta = 0.143, SE = 0.046, P-value = 0.002), the BWMR method (OR = 1.118; 95% CI, 1.044-1.197; beta = 0.111, SE = 0.035, P-value = 0.001), and the cML method (OR = 1.116; 95% CI, 1.034-1.206; beta = 0.110, SE = 0.039, P-value = 0.005). The MR-PRESSO outlier correction validated the robustness of the IVW results (OR = 1.116; 95% CI, 1.045-1.192, P-value = 0.008). Also, our scatter plot and leave-one-out sensitivity analysis further confirmed the causal relationship between the exposure and the outcome(Figure 2).
Tests for horizontal pleiotropy through MR-Egger regression intercept (P-value = 0.379) and MR-PRESSO global tests (P-value = 0.357) indicated no association bias from genetically predicted factors across analyzed subgroups. Furthermore, Cochran’s Q statistics (P-value = 0.474) underscored a lack of SNP heterogeneity in MR analyses, reinforcing the consistency of our findings (refer to supplementary file 1).
4.2 Validating the Association Between Genetically Inferred MS and NPB Risk Across Diverse Cohorts
To validate our findings and mitigate bias from overlapping samples, we sourced data from diverse cohorts. After rigorous screening and exclusion of rs3118470, linked to diabetes, 25 SNPs were employed in the MR analysis. Both IVW and MR-PRESSO revealed a significant association between genetically inferred MS2 and NPB risk, with consistent results across various MR methods (Figure 2). The F statistics (Mean = 352) underscored the robustness of these genetic markers concerning MS2.
The IVW reported an OR of 1.083; 95% CI, 1.008-1.163; beta = 0.080, SE = 0.037, P-value = 0.030, and the MR-PRESSO results mirrored this (OR = 1.083; 95% CI, 1.013-1.158, P-value = 0.028). Tests for horizontal pleiotropy (MR-Egger regression intercept P-value = 0.105, MR-PRESSO global tests P-value = 0.547) and Cochran’s Q statistics (P-value = 0.646) confirmed the absence of SNP heterogeneity and association bias for genetically predicted factors across analyzed subgroups (refer to supplementary file 1).
In the fixed effect meta-analysis conducted across two distinct populations, minimal heterogeneity was observed (P-value = 0.55). The test for overall effect size yielded a significant(P-value < 0.001), underscoring a statistically significant overall effect across the combined studies (refer to Figure 3).Our results robustly confirm that genetically predicted MS is a significant risk factor for NPB, supported by various analytical methods and diverse populations(supplementary file 2).
4.3 Potential Reverse Causality between NPB and MS
In an effort to elucidate potential reverse causality dynamics between NPB and MS, we employed MR with NPB posited as the exposure variable and MS as the outcome variable. Initial analyses focusing on NPB versus MS1 failed to yield any SNPs when applying a stringent significance threshold of 5×10-8. In pursuit of a more comprehensive SNP profile, we adjusted the threshold to 5×10-6, which facilitated the identification of 20 SNPs. Subsequent IVW analysis generated a p-value of 0.505, indicating no statistically significant reverse causal relationship. A parallel analysis involving NPB versus MS2 similarly resulted in no significant SNP detection, reinforcing the likelihood of an absence of reverse causality between MS and NPB. This suggests a nuanced interplay where NPB does not appear to exert a causative influence on MS under the conditions and thresholds specified in our study.
4.4 Mediation Analysis of the Causal Pathway from MS to NPB via DD
To explore the pathogenesis between MS and NPB, we hypothesized that MS contributes to the development of NPB through its demyelinating effects on neural cells. DD were therefore posited as mediators in this relationship, facilitating a mediation analysis via MR to ascertain the causal links among these diseases(Figure 4). The two-sample MR analysis demonstrated a significant causal relationship between MS and DD, with the IVW method yielding an OR of 2.02 (95% CI, 1.69-2.41; beta = 0.70, SE = 0.09, p-value = 1.02x10-14). Additionally, a significant causal link was identified between DD and NPB, with the IVW method indicating an OR of 1.12 (95% CI, 1.04-1.20; beta = 0.11, SE = 0.04, p-value = 0.002)(Figure 3). Our scatter plot and leave-one-out sensitivity analysis further substantiate the causal link between the exposure and the outcome(Figure 4). All results were corroborated by robust checks for pleiotropy and heterogeneity, as detailed in the supplementary materials (supplementary file 3).
OR(95% CI) adjusted for 1-SD increase in MS for NPB. Analysis was conducted using IVW as the primary method, enhanced by MR-PRESSO, cML, BWMR, and WM for improved robustness. TE:Total effect, the effect of the exposure on the NPB. DE:Direct effect: the effect of the exposure on the NPB, not explained by the mediator. IE:intermediary effect, the effect of the exposure on the NPB acting through the mediator. An asterisk (*) denotes significance at P<0.001.
From Interactive Mediation Tests, the direct effect (DE) from the IVW method was calculated with an OR of 1.03 (95% CI, 0.95-1.13; beta = 0.03, SE = 0.04), indicating a significant direct influence of MS on NPB. The intermediary effect (IE), calculated by the IVW method, revealed an OR of 1.08 (95% CI, 1.02-1.14; beta = 0.08, SE = 0.03), suggesting mediation through DD. The total effect (TE) was determined to be an OR of 1.12 (95% CI, 1.04-1.19; beta = 0.11, SE = 0.03). The proportion mediated (IE_div_TE) was 70.29%, with a confidence interval ranging from 0.21 to 1.19. The mediation effect was further validated using the Sobel test, which returned a p-value of 0.005. These findings underscore a clear causal relationship between MS, DD, and NPB.
4.5 Exploring the Causal Impact of Plasma Proteins on MS, DD, and NPB
To investigate potential therapeutic targets, our research utilized multivariable MR to assess the causal relationship between 4,907 plasma proteins (as exposures) and MS as outcomes. Applying a stringent threshold, we initially identified 161 genes after excluding SNPs below the threshold of three effective instruments and where the IVW method p-value exceeded 0.05. Notably, upon applying FDR corrections to minimize false positives, only two genes, ADAM Metallopeptidase Domain 11(ADAM11) and Glutamate Ionotropic Receptor AMPA Type Subunit 4 (GRIA4), met the criteria for inclusion. For ADAM11, the IVW method yielded an OR of 1.470, with a 95% CI of 1.227-1.761, a beta of 0.385, SE of 0.092, and an FDR-adjusted p-value of 0.040. Horizontal pleiotropy assessments through MR-Egger regression and Cochran’s Q statistics did not indicate significant pleiotropic effects (intercept p-value = 0.243; Q p-value = 0.654). Similarly, for GRIA4, the IVW method reported an OR of 1.97, 95% CI of 1.43-2.72, beta of 0.68, SE of 0.16, and an FDR-adjusted p-value of 0.040, with MR-Egger and Cochran’s Q statistics suggesting no significant pleiotropy (intercept p-value = 0.814; Q p-value = 0.585).
In the analysis of plasma proteins versus DD, after rigorous screening, 247 proteins were initially identified. Following FDR corrections, two proteins were significantly associated: C-X-C Motif Chemokine Ligand 13(CXCL13), with an IVW OR of 0.07 (95% CI: 0.03-0.19; beta = -2.63, SE = 0.49, P-value = 6.94x10-8, P_FDR = 1.31x10-4), and Protein Kinase C Gamma(PRKCG), with an IVW OR of 1.23 (95% CI: 1.15-1.32; beta = 0.21, SE = 0.04, P-value = 6.32x10-9, P_FDR = 2.44x10-5).
Stringent filtering initially identified 91 genes in the plasma protein vs. NPB analysis, However, none remained after applying FDR corrections. Interestingly, relaxing the FDR thresholds highlighted the presence of Glutathione-Disulfide Reductase(GSR) and Ubiquitin Like Modifier Activating Enzyme 2(UBA2) in both the NPB and MS analyses. For UBA2 in the MS group, the IVW method indicated an OR of 1.33 (95% CI, 1.06-1.67; beta = 0.29, SE = 0.15, p-value = 0.014). For GSR, an OR of 0.66 (95% CI, 0.44-1.00; beta = -0.41, SE = 0.21, p-value = 0.049) was noted. In the NPB group, similar results for UBA2 and GSR were observed with corresponding ORs and high FDR values, detailed results are provided in supplementary file 4.