The results of one-way ANOVA (Fig. 4) showed that, compared to patients with CAI without pain, patients with CAI who had anterolateral ankle pain had lower gastrocnemius muscle force during running (F[1,118] = 6.198, P = 0.001). Additionally, patients with CAI who had mediolateral ankle pain exhibited a significantly greater ankle inversion angle during running compared to patients with CAI without pain (F[1,118] = 4.772, P = 0.001).
Patients with CAI who had anterolateral ankle pain exhibited a greater GRF during running than did patients with CAI without pain (F[1,118] = 7.347, P = 0.002). Additionally, ankle energy absorption was significantly greater in patients with CAI who had anterolateral ankle pain during running compared to patients with CAI without pain (F[1,118] = 3.451, P = 0.002), as shown in Fig. 5.
As illustrated in Fig. 6, the study employed LASSO regression to select potential risk factors, which were then used as independent variables in logistic regression. The study identified four risk factors associated with anterolateral ankle pain: gastrocnemius muscle force, ankle internal rotation angle, GRF, and ankle energy absorption. The correlation coefficients for these factors were − 0.106, -0.001, 0.652, and 1.308, respectively. Additionally, in the context of mediolateral ankle pain, our investigation identified three significant risk factors: peroneus longus muscle force, ankle internal rotation angle, and GRF. The correlation coefficients for these variables were found to be -0.003, -0.030, and − 0.359, respectively. The risk factors associated with posterolateral ankle pain were peroneus longus muscle force, gastrocnemius muscle force, ankle internal rotation angle, GRF, dynamic stability, and ankle energy absorption. The correlation coefficients for these risk factors were − 0.022, -0.025, -0.033, -0.395, -0.819, and − 0.235, respectively.
As indicated in Table 2, the variables that passed the screening process were used in the logistic regression model. The results also indicated that gastrocnemius muscle force (OR = 0.85, 95%CI: 0.73 ~ 0.97), GRF (OR = 2.64, 95%CI: 1.25 ~ 6.22), and ankle energy absorption (OR = 9.11, 95%CI: 1.50 ~ 77.79) were independent predictors of anterolateral ankle pain. Additionally, ankle inversion angle (OR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.01–1.18) and GRF (OR = 2.13, 95% CI: 1.17–4.31) were found to be independent predictors of mediolateral ankle pain. Furthermore, ankle internal rotation angle (OR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.00 ~ 1.12), GRF (OR = 2.16, 95% CI: 1.07 ~ 4.80), and dynamic stability (OR = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.05 ~ 0.68) were independent predictors of posterolateral ankle pain.
Table 2
Results of Stepwise Logistic Regression
Variables
|
Anterolateral ankle pain
|
Mediolateral ankle pain
|
Posterolateral ankle pain
|
OR (95%CI)
|
P value
|
OR (95%CI)
|
P value
|
OR (95%CI)
|
P value
|
peroneus longus muscle force
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gastrocnemius
muscle force
|
0.85 (0.73, 0.97)
|
0.02
|
|
|
|
|
Tibialis anterior
muscle force
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ankle plantarflexion angle
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ankle inversion angle
|
|
|
1.08 (1.01, 1.18)
|
0.05
|
|
|
Ankle internal rotation Angle
|
|
|
|
|
1.06 (1.00, 1.12)
|
0.04
|
GRF
|
2.64 (1.25, 6.22)
|
0.02
|
2.13 (1.17, 4.31)
|
0.02
|
2.16 (1.07, 4.80)
|
0.04
|
TTP
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
COP displacements
|
|
|
|
|
0.20 (0.05, 0.68)
|
0.02
|
Ankle energy absorption
|
9.11 (1.50, 77.79)
|
0.02
|
|
|
|
|
A risk prediction nomogram model of ankle pain in CAI was established based on the results of logistic regression, which was shown in Figs. 7–9. In the nomogram, a higher total score indicated a higher risk of ankle pain. Figure 6 shows the risk prediction nomogram model of participants with anterolateral ankle pain. Using the fifth observed value as an example, the participant’s ankle energy absorption was 1.25J·kg− 1, corresponding to a score of 1.06. The GRF was 6.6BW, corresponding to a score of 1.5. The gastrocnemius muscle force was 7.3BW, corresponding to a score of 0.25. The total score of the three indexes above was 2.81. Therefore, the likelihood of experiencing anterolateral ankle pain in patients with CAI at this time was 94.4%.
Figure 8 shows the risk prediction nomogram model for participants with mediolateral ankle pain, which included two predictors: GRF and ankle inversion angle. For instance, in the 11th observed value of this experiment, the participant’s GRF during running was 6.9 BW, corresponding to a score of 1.88, and the ankle inversion angle was 14°, corresponding to a score of 0.78. The total score of the two indicators was 2.68, indicating a 93.8% probability of mediolateral ankle pain.
The risk prediction nomogram model for posterolateral ankle pain comprised three predictors: dynamic stability, GRF, and ankle internal rotation angle. Using the 15th observed value of this experiment as an example, the participant exhibited a COP displacement of 3.02 during running, which corresponds to a score of 0.85. Additionally, the participant had a GRF of 4.05 BW, corresponding to a score of -0.05, and an ankle internal rotation angle of 11°, corresponding to a score of 0.55. The combined score for the three indexes was 1.35. At this specific instance, the probability of posterior lateral ankle pain was 78.6%.
The study examined the risk prediction nomogram model by plotting the ROC, calibration, and DCA curves. The ROC curve assessed the model’s ability to distinguish between non-events and events, and its discrimination ability was reflected by the area under the curve (AUC). The AUCs of the nomogram in this study were 0.85, 0.77, and 0.76, respectively, indicating that the model had excellent distinctive ability. The calibration curves measured the degree of correspondence between the predicted and actual results. This was accomplished by resampling the training set 1000 times using the bootstrap method. The calibration curves indicated that the deviation of the actual curves from the ideal line was small in this study, suggesting that the risk prediction nomogram model was well calibrated. The DCA curves indicated that the risk prediction nomogram model could offer clinical benefits to runners with CAI who had anterolateral ankle pain and were at risk thresholds ranging from 0 to 0.90, provide clinical benefits to runners with CAI with mediolateral ankle pain at risk thresholds ranging from 0 to 0.99, and give clinical benefits to runners with CAI with posterolateral ankle pain at risk thresholds ranging from 0 to 0.9. Overall, the model's predictions were moderately accurate, as shown in Fig. 10.