Potential of 20th Century North Anatolian Fault Style Domino Effect of the February 6, 2023, Kahramanmaraş Earthquake on the Centuries Long Dead Sea Fault Seismic Quiescence.

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Potential of 20th Century North Anatolian Fault Style Domino Effect of the February 6, 2023, Kahramanmaraş Earthquake on the Centuries Long Dead Sea Fault Seismic Quiescence.

https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4365995/v1

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Field observations conducted immediately following the February 6, 2023, M 7.8 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake documented the southern surface rupture termination in the Amik Basin. The termination occurred in an en-echelon pattern, stretching across the 3.5 km width of the approximately 10.5-kilometer-wide stepover. This extension reached towards the northern tip of the Hacıpaşa Fault, which constitutes the main northern segment of the Dead Sea Fault Zone (DSFZ). Archaeological and paleoseismologic data show that the approximate 800-kilometre-long DSFZ has been seismically quiet for more than 600 years in the north and 900 years in the south. A similar fault connection geometry at the western end of the 1939 Ms 7.9 Erzincan earthquake in the easternmost part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone and the subsequently triggered successive large magnitude earthquakes migrating westward within a few decades highlights an increased seismic hazard for the entire DSFZ. This heightened seismic hazard potential along the DSFZ, combined with historical population centers experiencing wars and migrations, puts millions of people at an unparalleled risk.

Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards

Earth and environmental sciences/Solid earth sciences

The East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) is one of the major active strike-slip fault zones of the Eastern Mediterranean region, accommodating deformation between the Anatolian Block and Arabian Plate (Fig. 1). On February 6, 2023, EAFZ was reactivated by the M 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, generating an ~ 375 km long surface rupture from northeast of Çelikhan in the north to Amik Basin in the south (Kozacı et al. 2024). The earthquake initiated on the Narlı Fault (Fig. 2A) and triggered the main trace of the EAFZ. Mapping of the southernmost part of the Kahramanmaraş earthquake rupture shows a ∼10,5-km-wide releasing stepover between the southern end of the rupture and the northernmost segment of the Dead Sea Fault Zone (DSFZ) (Fig. 1 and Fig. 2B).

An intriguing earthquake behaviour along major active fault zones is the domino-style triggering of large-magnitude earthquakes on neighbouring segments as a result of coulomb stress transfer (e.g. Stein et al., 1997; Nalbant et al., 2002). The 20th-century earthquake sequence along the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) exemplifies this phenomenon. On December 27, 1939, the Erzincan earthquake (Ms7.9) initiated in the eastern part of the NAFZ and ruptured about 360 km-long section (Fig. 1, Barka 1996). The surface rupture of the 1939 earthquake followed the main trace of the NAFZ east of Niksar Basin, which is a ∼10,4-km-wide releasing stepover on the NAFZ (Fig. 1, Fig. 2C). The surface rupture extended westward along the southern margin of the Niksar Basin because it could not cross the 10,4 km-wide releasing stepover (Fig. 2D). However, the 1939 event loaded significant stress on the segment bounding north of the Niksar Basin (Fig. 3A) and initiated the 20th-century earthquake sequence on the NAFZ from east to west (Stein et al. 1997), starting with 1942 (Ms 7.0), and followed by 1943 (Ms 7.6), 1944 (Ms 7.4), 1957 (Ms 7.1), 1967 (Ms 6.8), 1999a İzmit (Mw 7.4) and 1999b Düzce (Mw 7.2) earthquakes (Fig. 1). Examination of geological parameters of the 1939 Erzincan and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake terminations show a noteworthy similarity between these two events from a structural and seismic hazard perspective with potentially significant consequences. On both strike-slip faults, the sizes of the step-overs to the neighbouring segments are very similar (~ 10,4 km and ~ 10,5 km, respectively, Figs. 2B and 2D) as well as the magnitudes (Ms 7.9 and Mw 7.8) and the lengths of the surface ruptures (360 km and 375 km). As in the 1939 event (Fig. 3A, Stein et al., 1997), the Coulomb stress change analysis of the February 6, 2023 earthquake (Schmitt et al. 2023) reveals stress loading on the neighbouring Hacıpaşa Fault within the DSFZ (Fig. 3B). In addition, a centuries-long seismic quiescence along the DSFZ starting from the 10,5 km wide stepover in the southernmost end of the Kahramanmaraş earthquake surface rupture further elevates the cause for concern. Here, we present the structural and seismic activity similarities between the NAFZ and EAFZ/DSFZ connections and highlight the heightened seismic hazard potential between the southern termination of the Kahramanmaraş earthquake surface rupture in the north and the Gulf of Aqaba in the south, a socio-politically fragile region of the world.

The principal tectonic structures governing the tectonics of the Eastern Mediterranean region in the Eurasian-Arabian collision zone are the NAFZ to the north and the EAFZ and DSFZ to the south (Fig. 1). The NAFZ is a right-lateral strike-slip fault zone extending approximately E-W between the northern Aegean Sea in the west and Karlıova in the east. Almost all of the NAFZ ruptured with M > 7 westward migrating earthquakes during the 20th

century. The left lateral EAFZ starts from Karlıova, intersecting the NAFZ and extends southwestward towards the İskenderun Bay (Fig. 1). The EAFZ connects with the DSFZ through the Karasu Valley (Fig. 2A). Several moderate to large magnitude earthquakes occurred on the EAFZ during the 19th century (Ambraseys, 1989) and instrumental period. The DSFZ is a left lateral fault zone extending approximately northward from the Gulf of Aqaba towards the Amik Basin (Fig. 1). The main segments of the DSFZ that start from southeast of the Amik Basin are Hacıpaşa, Missyaf, Yammouneh, Jordan Valley and Araba Valley segments from north to south, respectively. The DSFZ usually has a simple geometry in the south, but it bifurcates into multiple branches towards the north (Fig. 2A). The main northernmost branch is the Hacıpaşa Fault, stretching from the western margin of the Ghab Basin (Syria) to the Amik Basin (Türkiye).

The on-land DSFZ has not experienced large-magnitude earthquakes during the instrumental period. Nevertheless, the historical, archaeological and paleosesismological data show the occurrence of large-magnitude earthquakes with surface ruptures. From north to south, the most recent surface rupturing earthquake on the Hacıpaşa Fault was the historical 1408 CE earthquake (Ambraseys and Melville 1995, Akyüz et al. 2006). The most recent surface rupturing earthquake on the N-S trending Apame Fault (Fig. 1), bounding the eastern margin of the Ghab Basin, was the 1157 CE event (Meghraoui et al. 2003, Sbeinati et al. 2005). Further south is the Missyaf segment; this section's last surface rupturing earthquake was the 1170 CE event (Meghraoui et al. 2003). The NE-SW trending Lebanese Restraining Bend consists of several sub-parallel faults. Still, the main fault is the Yammouneh Fault, and according to Daeron et al. (2007), the last surface rupturing event was in 1063 in the northern section and 1202 CE in the southern section. Further south is the Jordan Valley segment of the DSFZ, which last ruptured during the 1033 CE earthquake (Ferry et al. 2011). The southernmost segment of the DSFZ on land is the Araba Valley Fault, and the last surface rupturing event on this section was in 1458 CE (Klinger et al. 2015). The DSFZ has been experiencing approximately 600 to almost a millennia-long seismic quiescence between the Gulf of Aqaba and Amik Basin (Fig. 1).

The southwestern extension of the February 6, 2023, M 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake surface rupture follows the western margin of the Karasu Valley towards the Amik Basin, where there is a releasing segment boundary associated with an approximately 10.5 km left step between the fault extending along the western side of the Karasu Valley and the northernmost segment (Hacıpaşa) of the DSFZ (Figs. 2A, B).

The southwestern extension of the surface rupture terminated in the Amik Basin (Fig. 2A). Detailed mapping of the southern extent of the surface rupture shows that the left-lateral surface rupture extends in a relatively narrow zone to the town of Kırıkhan (Fig. 2a). From this location southward, it extends with increasing normal and decreasing strike-slip components in a left-stepping en-echelon pattern (Fig. 2B, Figs. 4A, B, C). The surface rupture, observed across a ∼3.5-km-wide deformation zone, terminates immediately west of Suvatlı village (Fig. 2D, Fig. 4D). The distance from this location to the northernmost segment of the DSFZ is about 7 km, which makes the total width of the releasing step over about 10.5 km (Fig. 2B).

Possible role of Amik Stepover: Inferences from Niksar Stepover and 20th Century EQ sequence in the NAFZ Analogy

A segment boundary with a certain size and/or level of complexity may act as a barrier to stop the lateral propagation of surface rupture during an earthquake (e.g., Sibson, 1985; Wesnousky, 1988; Harris and Day, 1993; Biasi and Wesnousky, 2021). The southern part of the February 6, 2023, M 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake surface rupture dies out in a left-stepping en-echelon pattern within a ~ 10,5-km-wide releasing step over in the Amik Basin (Figs. 2A, B and Fig. 4). This releasing stepover defines the segment boundary between the fault reactivated during the February 6, 2023, M 7.8 earthquake in the west and the northernmost segment of the DSFZ in the east. The role of the 10,5-km-wide releasing stepover in the Amik Basin presents an intriguing similarity to the Niksar Basin along the NAFZ during the 1939 Ms 7.9 earthquake. The rupture of the 1939 earthquake could not propagate across the 10,4-km-wide Niksar Basin to extend westward onto the main trace of the NAFZ (Figs. 2C, D). While the Niksar Basin acted as a rupture propagation barrier, the large magnitude 1939 earthquake loaded stress onto the adjacent western NAFZ segment (Fig. 3A, Stein et al. 1997). Three years later, in 1942, the main trace of the NAFZ bounding the northern margin of the Niksar Basin ruptured (Fig. 2D), and the large magnitude surface rupturing earthquakes successively propagated for nearly 800 km westward, reaching the Marmara Sea within 60 years (Fig. 1). The westward migrating earthquake sequence that started with the 1939 earthquake on the eastern part of the NAFZ is an unsurpassed example showing how a large magnitude earthquake can trigger the neighbouring segment. Similarly, we suggest that the 10,5-km-wide stepover in the Amik Basin acted as a barrier, inhibiting the propagation of the earthquake rupture, similar to the Niksar Basin during the 1939 earthquake on the NAFZ. The 2023 surface rupture could not propagate across that releasing segment boundary in the Amik Basin to extend onto the northernmost segment of the DSFZ but loaded stress (Schmitt et al., 2023) (Fig. 3B).

Implications for size of the next earthquake

The slip rate estimations on the DSFZ rely on geological, geomorphological, archaeoseismological and geodetic data. However, the slip rate on the DSFZ across various spatiotemporal resolutions converges at approximately 4–5 mm/yr (Marco and Klinger 2014), and according to space-based geodetic data, the transient slip rate is 9–10 mm/yr (Reilinger et al., 2006). Considering the slip rate on the DSFZ and the ~ 6–9 century-long seismic quiescence, it is clear that the potential for M > 7 earthquakes is very high. In this context, the southeastward termination of the February 6, 2023, rupture towards the northernmost reach of the DSFZ (i.e. Hacıpaşa Fault) suggests a failed rupture propagation attempt arrested by this potentially persistent segment boundary. As Stein et al. (1997) demonstrated for the NAFZ, large magnitude earthquake ruptures load stress on neighbouring faults, which sets up the next large one for failure if enough stress has accumulated. Similarly, February 6, 2023 earthquake loaded stress on the neighbouring Hacıpaşa Fault as modelled by Schmitt et al. (2023) and has increased its potential to rupture. Both archaeological and paleoseismological data show that the DSFZ has been seismically quiet for about 600 years in the north and over 900 years in the south. A similar fault connection geometry at the western end of the 1939 Ms 7.9 earthquake on the NAFZ and the subsequently triggered successive large-magnitude earthquakes migrating westward within a few decades provides a stark analogy highlighting an increased seismic hazard for the entire DSFZ. Following the 1939 earthquake, the NAFZ experienced subsequent rupture north of the Niksar Basin, leading to seven M > 7 cascading seismic events covering nearly 800 km over six decades (Fig. 1). We anticipate a similar phenomenon along the DSFZ following the 2023 M 7.8 earthquake, with potential earthquakes starting in the northernmost reach of the DSFZ and migrating southwards at varying intervals, possibly extending to the Gulf of Aqaba (Fig. 1). The combination of over 600–900 years of seismic strain accumulation along the DSFZ at ∼5 mm/yr (calculated from geological, geomorphological, and archaeoseismological data) and ~ 10 mm/yr (calculated from geodetic data) indicates that 3–9 m slip may be released during M > 7 earthquakes, which would have dramatic consequences considering ~ 30 million inhabitants in southern Türkiye, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan and Egypt live within or alongside the DSFZ.

The ∼375 km long surface rupture of February 6, 2023, Mw 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake died out within a 10,5 km wide releasing stepover between the western boundary fault of the Karasu Valley and northern DSFZ (Hacıpaşa Fault). This relationship resembles a similar situation between the 1939 Erzincan (Ms 7.9) and 1942 (Mw 7.0) Niksar-Erbaa earthquakes, which triggered a 60-year-long earthquake sequence with M > 7 along the 800 km of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. February 6, 2023, the Kahramanmaraş Earthquake has a similar potential to trigger a cascading earthquake sequence, considering centuries-long seismic quiescence along the DSFZ. The 10,5 km wide releasing stepover likely arrested the M 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake surface rupture further south. However, it loaded significant stress on the Hacıpaşa Fault, the northernmost branch of the DSFZ. The seismic quiescence of the Hacıpaşa Fault since 1408 CE and the 5–10 mm/yr slip rate of the fault increases the probability of the occurrence of another large magnitude (M > 7) earthquake in the same region. If it happens, this might also trigger an earthquake sequence that includes neighbouring segments toward the south, which have been in a seismic quiescence for more than 600–900 years. The preponderance of the data unequivocally indicates that an 800-kilometre-long zone spanning from the Antakya region in Türkiye through western Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel, and eastern Egypt is under significant seismic hazard, necessitating preparedness for large earthquakes exceeding magnitudes M > 7. This heightened seismic risk underscores the imperative for proactive measures to mitigate potential devastation. Compounded by the fragile socio-political landscape of the region, the urgency of addressing this issue is paramount.

Acknowledgements

Field reconnaissance for Ozgur Kozaci and Erhan Altunel were funded by the Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance (GEER). We are grateful to the Hatay government for providing a helicopter for aerial reconnaissance of the southern termination of the February 6, 2023, Kahramanmaraş earthquake surface rupture. We owe a debt of gratitude to helicopter pilot Adnan Öztürk (Ministry of Internal Affairs). We thank Mr. Kemal Altunel of Kocaeli Metropolitan Municipality for providing a tent for us to stay in Hatay. We thank Mathew Herman of California State University, Bakersfield, for kindly providing the Coulomb model in Figure 3B. The field reconnaissance immediately following the earthquake was funded by Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance. Cengiz Yıldırım thanks to Istanbul Technical University Research Fund (Project ID: MCAP-2023-44517), The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Türkiye (Project ID: 123Y189), and the Foundation for the Development of Istanbul Technical University for funding of field studies. We are grateful to Chris Madugo (PG&E, CA) for reviewing the draft version of the manuscript.

Author contributions:

Erhan Altunel and Özgür Kozacı made observations in the southernmost termination of the February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake and mapped the surface rupture in the step-over area. Erhan Altunel, Özgür Kozacı and Cengiz Yıldırım made observations along the whole surface rupture of the 2023 earthquake and documented field observations. Reda M. Sbeinati and Mustapha Meghraoui contributed to the historical seismicity of the DSFZ. All authors have reviewed the manuscript.

Competing interests:

The authors have not disclosed any competing interests.

Data availability:

The data used in the study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Potential of 20th Century North Anatolian Fault Style Domino Effect of the February 6, 2023, Kahramanmaraş Earthquake on the Centuries Long Dead Sea Fault Seismic Quiescence.

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Abstract

Figures

Introduction

Tectonic Setting and Seismicity

The southern termination of the February 6, 2023, Mw 7.8 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake surface rupture

Discussion and implications

Implications for size of the next earthquake

Conclusion

Declarations

References

Additional Declarations

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