The composition of canid communities across the world shows both negative and positive values of NRI and is influenced by distinct factors across the world. However, environmental filters play a greater role than traits related to biotic factors (body size dissimilarity and Felidae richness) to explain the phylogenetic composition of assemblages. This pattern is consistent as it is supported not only for our main dataset, but also for different phylogenetic and spatial scales through our sensitivity analyses.
Temperature during the Last Glacial Maximum is the main force that shapes how Canidae lineages are phylogenetically distributed today. This result is in line with studies that suggested glacial oscillations as an important factor to contemporary biodiversity patterns through environmental filtering (Svenning et al. 2015a). Regional extinctions might have been triggered by paleoclimate shifts and limitations in species dispersal events, leaving behind lasting paleoclimate legacies that continue to impact modern biodiversity (Svenning et al. 2015b).
If oscillations in temperature over large time scales were indeed crucial for the distribution of Canidae, one would expect the current mean temperature to also have played a significant role. Indeed, our findings supported this notion, as the current mean temperature emerged as the second strongest force acting on NRI, but in the opposite direction to that of LGM temperature. The influence of LGM on the current distribution of canids can be elucidated by considering several key factors. Firstly, it is known that forests in Africa and South America, two major hotspot areas for Canidae (Porto et al. 2023), significantly contracted their areas due to global aridification during LGM (Clapperton 1993; Cowling et al. 2008a; Novello et al. 2019). Global aridification likely concentrated Canidae lineages into climatic refugia, fostering closer phylogenetic relationships into warm regions that offered suitable environmental conditions. This is in line with Carnaval and Moritz (2008), who proposed, through the use of paleoclimatic models, the presence of historical forest refugia in the Atlantic rain forest through the Pleistocene in South America. In contrast, the negative effect of current mean temperature suggests a different dynamic, possibly driven by the expansion and dispersal of species in response to contemporary climate changes.
These contrasting effects of temperature during LGM and current times may have influenced Canidae distribution in distinct ways, perhaps on different continents with varying degrees of overdispersion. This nuanced interplay underscores the complex and varied impacts of Quaternary climatic oscillations on the phylogenetic structure of Canidae worldwide. In fact, Quaternary major oscillations have been suggested to drive aspects of biodiversity such as species endemism and functional structures of communities at continental scales (Sandel et al. 2011; Brown et al. 2017).
However, we can also argue that Canids, as carnivores, are intrinsically linked to their prey (Vettorazzi et al. 2022), and this relationship could have played a prominent role in their distribution patterns (i.e. canid distributions are determined by a biotic factor, namely their prey, but the prey distributions in turn are determined by abiotic factors). As temperatures dropped and ice sheets advanced during the LGM, many herbivorous species sought refuge in forested areas (Cowling et al. 2008b). Canids might have naturally followed the distribution of their prey into these forested refugia, which is in line with the findings of Rowan et al. (2016) that demonstrated the distribution of Ungulate communities were strongly influenced by paleoclimate in Africa during the LGM, which in turn seems to have been followed by the distributions of carnivores.
The positive relationship between the LGM and NRI indicates that higher temperatures led to increased phylogenetic clustering. This observation strongly suggests the presence of environmental filtering, particularly prevalent in South America and Africa. It is likely that the drastic changes in vegetation in these regions created a robust filter that dictated which canid species could inhabit the remaining refuge areas. Furthermore, we highlight the negative effect that vegetation cover has on body size dissimilarity, showing that as areas become more forested, species turn out to be more similar in their sizes (less dissimilarity).
One can argue that body size dissimilarity, while not necessarily stronger than abiotic variables, plays an interesting role in structuring Canidae phylogenetic composition. When examining the distribution of this variable on the map (Fig. 2D), most of its variation occurs in the Northern Hemisphere, a region known to have undergone significant aridification during the LGM (Clark 1995). Therefore, in these areas, is it probable that ecological refuges may not have been as abundant, and competitive exclusion likely played a more pivotal role. In this sense, we can consider body size dissimilarity among current species as a proxy for past competition. Finarelli (2007) suggests that trends in body size were shaped by interactions between species throughout the evolutionary history of Canidae. Consequently, it is reasonable to assume that competition was most intense between species of similar body sizes, and if body size is evolutionarily conserved (as assumed here), competition led to the displacement of phylogenetically related species. But in the end, abiotic factors together were still the most important.
The observed relationship between Felidae richness and the assembly composition of canids unveils intriguing ecological dynamics, potentially rooted in several compelling explanations. Firstly, interspecific competition emerges as a potential force shaping these communities, wherein areas abundant in felids may exert stronger selective pressures on canids. This heightened competition could propel convergent evolution among canid species, fostering phylogenetic similarity as a means to mitigate overlap in ecological niches. Such mechanism could be similar to the one already suggested by Pires et al. (2017), indicating an incumbent effect in the Bering Strait. Their findings point to Felidae imposing a filter over extinct Canidae lineages, allowing only one clade of canids to cross it to Eurasia. Moreover, the diversity and specialization of prey that would reduce the competition against felines, could direct canids towards comparable evolutionary paths, further accentuating the observed clustering. However, canids inhabiting assemblages with fewer felines could explore diverse niches, fostering phylogenetic overdispersion.
Human footprint presents a low effect on NRI values. This is surprising because Di Marco & Santini (2015) demonstrate that human impacts influence the geographical distribution of lineages of terrestrial mammals better than the biological traits of species. Anthropogenic impacts seem to be important to understand the spatial distribution of the phylogenetic information of Canidae, considering the reports of endemic canids in the Americas constantly losing habitat and being killed by humans (Hoffmann et al. 2011). We hypothesize that the strong influence of human footprint on assemblages, found by Di Marco & Santini (2015), was not corroborated in our study due to the lower number of species that were analyzed here compared to their paper, corresponding to only 0.73% of all the terrestrial mammals they took into account. Moreover, Di Marco & Santini (2015), different from our study, explored several groups of mammals together, and apparently canids do not follow the general rule they found for all terrestrial mammals.
Our sensitivity analyses performed here yield similar results compared to our main framework, highlighting the robust pattern of temperature variables (mainly from the LGM) strongly influencing the geographic distribution of Canidae phylogenetic information.
We emphasize the better performance that models with environmental variables influencing body size dissimilarity had compared to the ones that did not. This points towards environmental control over body size dissimilarity. Our findings suggest a pattern of habitat filtering prevalent in warmer regions across the globe, such as deserts and tropical forests, with increased competition more pronounced in colder climates. This outcome stands in contrast to what was proposed by Dobzhansky (1950), who argued that biotic factors are more limiting in the tropics, while abiotic conditions are more important at higher latitudes. However, our results may not be entirely surprising given that the earliest ancestors of extant canids likely exhibited a pack-hunting lifestyle with medium body sizes around 70 cm (Wang and Tedford 2008; Porto et al. 2019). Deserts and tropical forests may act as a strong filter to canids that still present such a lifestyle because food is scarce in deserts and pack hunting is difficult inside dense forests.
Even though canids are not dispersal limited, because they can travel long distances (Wang and Tedford 2008; Wilson and Mittermeier 2009), they may still tend to be found in higher numbers near to their center of diversification than far from it. This can also help understand the phylogenetic structure of the Middle East + Northern Africa, and South America, which, based on the fossil records and biogeographical models, had major diversification events of foxes and South American canids, respectively (Wang and Tedford 2008; Porto et al. 2023). The ecological refugia created for canids within these regions during the LGM might have generated species’ phylogenetic clustering.
The majority of studies of the phylogenetic structure within communities concerns plants or focus on small geographic scales (Cadotte and Tucker 2017). Nevertheless, some studies with vertebrates at large spatial scales have demonstrated contrasting patterns of phylogenetic composition. Cooper, Rodríguez, & Purvis, (2008), also using NRI values, found for the first time in mammals a widespread tendency of overdispersion in assemblages of New World monkeys, Australasian possums, and North American ground squirrels, and debate the importance of competitive exclusion in these communities. However, Yan et al. (2016), applying a distinct metric to understand the phylogenetic structure of assemblages, found phylogenetic clustering for Mammalia, Aves, Reptilia, and Amphibia from China. Cardillo (2011), using NRI values and distinct null models for each region studied, demonstrated an unstructured phylogenetic pattern on African carnivore assemblages. Here we have presented a case where both patterns are important to understand community composition across the planet, depending on the region studied.
Larger geographical scales are expected to generate more phylogenetic clustering than overdispersion because the rate of speciation increases with more space available (Losos and Schluter 2000) due to higher habitat heterogeneity (Kneitel and Chase 2004), and thus sister species are more likely to co-occur at larger scales. Even though we find many areas with phylogenetic clustering (Fig. 2A), there are also many areas with overdispersed patterns, indicating that the scale we use (2º grid cells) is appropriate.
Sandel (2018) suggests that, if there is substantial variation in species richness along the geographical gradient, the effects that biotic and abiotic factors have on community assembly should not be assessed by only comparing index values, because NRI may depend on species richness. However, this is not the case here, as the species richness spatial gradient for Canidae does not present considerable variation over the planet (Figure S2).
The mechanisms that influence the assembly of a community can act in complex ways (Ricklefs 1987, 2015). In this study we use both a phylogenetic approach and a method based on environmental variables and traits. We demonstrate that canid community composition across the world presents substantial patterns of clustering and overdispersion that follow mainly the environmental gradient, suggesting habitat filtering as the main force acting on Canidae assemblages.