4.1 Sun, geomagnetic activity, and ozone
Solar activity has its cycle. The Schwabe cycle or 11-year cycle is the most pronounced of all the cycles of solar activity change (Arlt 2011). The next 25th solar cycle is predicted to be moderately weak and similar to the 24th cycle. The coming cycle will continue the secular minimum of solar cycles for the period 1914–2021. A maximum of cycle 25 is expected in July 2025 with over 110 sunspots. For comparison, more than 200 sunspot cycles were observed during the 21st, 22nd, and 23d sunspot cycles (Nandy 2021).
Geomagnetic activity - disturbances of the Earth's magnetic field associated with changes in the magnetospheric-ionospheric current system. The main manifestations of geomagnetic activity are strong disturbances - magnetic storms, which are a complex process of interaction between the solar wind and the magnetosphere, more often observed near the maxima of the 11-year cycle of solar activity (Richardson et al. 2000). Various features of this interaction operate at different altitudes in the ionosphere and the neutral atmosphere. At the heights of the mesosphere and upper stratosphere (lower ionosphere), the main effect is due to an increased level of deposition of secondary high-energy particles (electrons, protons) from the Earth's radiation belts (Energetic particle precipitation, EPP) (Lastoviˇcka 1996).
The precipitation of particles significantly affects the chemical and ionic composition of the atmosphere at geomagnetic latitudes 55–65o, and this effect is most significant during and after geomagnetic storms. The precipitation of high-energy particles significantly disturbs the budget of nitrogen oxides (NOx) at the heights of the lower thermosphere - upper stratosphere, and contributes to the loss of ozone in the mesosphere and stratosphere (Krivolutsky, Repnev, 2021). At altitudes below 80 km, EEP leads to the formation of HOx and an increase in its content after ionization and ion-chemical reactions, which has a short-term effect on mesospheric ozone through the known catalytic reaction. It was found that 56–87% of OH variations at mesospheric heights can be explained by changes in EEP (Brasseur, Solomon 2005).
The issue of the influence of various manifestations of solar activity on the TO is the subject of numerous studies, especially recently, since there are numerous evidences of the participation of ozone in solar-terrestrial relations and the influence of its distribution on tropospheric circulation (Krasouski et al. 2021).
The influence of geomagnetic storms on the total ozone content in the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere has been observed, but it occurs rarely and under certain conditions. A significant and constant TO response is observed above 50o N for very strong storms in winter under conditions of maximum solar activity and in the eastern phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (E-QBO, quasi-biennial oscillation), no effect was found for lower latitudes. Immediately after a strong storm, a significant increase in TO was observed, with two sectors being the most sensitive to the geomagnetic storm: the North-East Atlantic and European sectors, and the East Siberian and Aleutian sectors. The probable cause of such a TO reaction to a geomagnetic storm is considered to be strong circulation disturbances in the middle atmosphere (Danilov, Lastoviˇcka, 2001).
It was found that increased geomagnetic activity leads to an increase in temperature due to Joule dissipation (heating by particles), which is essential for the dynamic of the lower thermosphere. The ascending movements in the lower thermosphere and horizontal wind speeds intensify, and the meridional wind, directed to the equator, intensifies. All these phenomena affect the lower layers of the mesosphere and the upper stratosphere and can contribute to changes in TO. Observations and model studies of the response of mesospheric temperatures and dynamics give an ambiguous picture (Sinnhuber et al, 2012).
The impact of solar activity on the earth's atmosphere is a complex process. Comparison of the contribution of EPP, sharp variations of wave UV radiation to TO in the polar upper atmosphere, carried out using the potential regression, showed a significant contribution, comparable to the contribution of UV radiation, of magnetic field disturbances to variations in the ozone content in the atmosphere (Cong H et al, 2017).
4.2 Chizhesky-Velhover effect
In the 30s of the 20th century, Chizhevsky A.L and Velhover S.T. found that changes in the intensity of metachromasia of corynebacteria appear several hours earlier than the registration of solar flares, which made it possible to make a statement about the manifestation of the effect of an early reaction of living beings to a disturbance of the geomagnetic field and solar flares. (Chizhevsky 1995). Chizhevsky's processing of a huge amount of statistical material has shown synchrony in the curves of the general mortality of people and solar activity. The scientist considered a sick organism as a system brought out of a state of stable equilibrium, for which an insignificant external influence is sufficient for this instability to sharply increase up to the death of the organism. Such an impulse can be sharp changes in the physical factors of the external environment, which are triggered by changes in solar activity. Chiszevsky wrote: “... It would be completely wrong to assume that diseases or deaths are caused by cosmic or atmospheric-telluric phenomena. This, of course, cannot be allowed. We can only talk about that impulse from the indicated external factors, which, falling on a prepared organism, leads it to death” (Chizhevsky 1976). Chizhevsky identified some patterns of manifestation of epidemics depending on the solar cycle. Epidemics tend to start 2–3 years before or after the maximum solar cycle and last for about 4 years (Gumarova et al. 2013). He also noted that fluctuations in the strength of the electric field of the atmosphere, an increase in negative electricity on the Earth's surface, or positive electricity in the atmosphere, associated with the influx of solar electrons during sunspots, should affect physiological processes in living organisms and microorganisms, in particular. In the development of epidemics, two main features should be outlined: some epidemics should most often coincide with epochs of maximums, others - with epochs of minimums solar activity (Chizhevsky 2004).
Subsequently, the results of research in the field of heliobiology indicated a connection between living organisms and changes in geomagnetic and solar activity (Mavromichalaki et al. 2021; Khabarova 2002; Lipa et al. 1976; Ulmer 2002; Dimitrova 2006). The mechanism of action is generally believed to be a trigger - it is believed that the reaction of biological objects causes a sharp jump in the magnetic field during the explosive phase of a magnetic storm (Palmer et al. 2006; Zilli Vieira et al. 2019). As a result, the main attention of researchers of solar-biosphere relations is currently focused on studying the effect of strong disturbances of the geomagnetic field - magnetic storms on human life.
Oscillations of the electromagnetic field in certain frequency ranges cause the body to respond both positively and negatively. The results of the statistical assessment confirmed the conclusion of Chizhevsky about two peaks of morbidity in the periods before and after the magnetic storm (Ragulskaya and Khabarova 2001; Khabarova 2004). Thus, the beginning of the development of the disease process coincides with a sharp change in solar activity, and the subsequent increase in the level of geomagnetic disturbance and post-storm effects determines the deterioration of the state (Dimitrova, Stoilova 2003).
4.3 Solar and Galactic Cosmic Rays impacts and the COVID-19 pandemic
During a decrease in solar activity or the minimum of the solar cycle, galactic cosmic rays penetrate more strongly onto the earth's surface (O'Sullivan 2007). This leads to the growth of mutations in the cells of the DNA of living organizations, in particular, in bacteria and microorganisms (Atri, Melot 2014).
Nasirpour, et al. (2021), based on an autoregressive statistical analysis of past pandemics since 1918, indicated the development of new solar cycles until 2100 and new virus mutations mainly in tropical zones due to variations in sunspot extremes.
Ragulskaya and Tekutskaya (2021) found that variations in solar activity and the occurrence of pandemics for 1880–2021 show that all influenza pandemics of the 20th century occur at the peaks of 11-year solar cycles. Typhus pandemic 1847–1848, 1899, and civil war 1918–1919 also occurred during the period of maximum solar activity. Pandemics also developed at the lows of 11-year solar activity (for example, the 1989–1990 influenza pandemic, the 2009 swine flu pandemic, the 2019–2020 COVID-19 pandemic).
Over the past 70 years, the maximum intensity of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) was recorded in 2008–2010 and 2019–2020 (Ragulskaya, Tekutskaya 2021). According to the authors, the emergence of new strains of influenza and coronavirus viruses over the past 11 years is associated with a decrease in the ozone layer, an increase in UV radiation, and an increase in galactic cosmic rays during solar minima of the 23d and 24th solar cycles.
Among other effects that determine the solar impact on pandemic activity in the world, one should mention the effect of infrasonic impacts from the atmosphere, space on living organisms, observed as a result of the impact of modulated fluxes of high-energy particles, especially in the minima of solar activity (Negoda and Soroka 2001; Broner 1978) and the influence of high-energy systems on the Earth’s surface, in particular during the launch of heavy rockets (Persinger 2014), as well as the operation of a climate impact installation (Deruelle 2020) on atmospheric trace gases, in particular ozone.
This study confirms previous work on heliobiology, solar-terrestrial relationships, and focuses on the geomagnetic contribution to the surge in disease incidence during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since it was during this period that the virus had its original state, and not new mutated varieties, strains.
An anomalous sharp decrease in TO, a gradual activation of the appearance of sunspots on the Sun, an increase in geomagnetic disturbance events, and a GCR maximum during the winter and autumn period of 2020 in the Northern Hemisphere most likely contributed to the rapid development and mutation of the SARS-CoV2 virus, which affected the appearance of the first and second wave of pandemic cases infecting people around the world. The main contribution to the sharp changes in the number of cases of the virus was observed after the maximum of geomagnetic disturbances of the Ap index. On the other hand, the widespread of this virus began in the southern countries, and with timely precautions and restrictions, a global pandemic could be prevented.