The household size and mean landholdings found in this study in Kiruhura was lower than those earlier reported [11, 12, 17]. Kiruhura district land holding per household was 13.3 times more than that in Isingiro district. Land in Kiruhura was for livestock keeping whereas in Isingiro it was for crop growing.
Local, cross and exotic breeds of cattle, goats, sheep, pigs and chicken were kept (Table 1). Cattle kept were mainly exotic Friesian breeds and Friesian–Ankole cross breeds. In Kiruhura, cattle herds were mainly cross–breeds and were Friesian exotics in Isingiro. This showed that farmers in the study area were geared towards improvement for milk yield production. Climate change was therefore becoming bottleneck for achievement of this ambition.
Cattle stocking density was twice more in Isingiro district (1 cattle unit per 0.4 acres of land) as compared to Kiruhura district (1 cattle unit per 1 acre of land). In Kiruhura, cattle were more free-ranged on pasture. While in Isingiro cattle keeping was on small scale, whereby a cow, sub-adult either heifer or steer; and calf were being kept at any time. The steers were fattened for sale and in-calf heifer raised for replacement or sale. The cattle were supplemented by feeding on crop after- harvest residues mainly of banana, beans and maize stover.
The cattle herd structure in Kiruhura (Table 2) had a high proportion of female cattle, which was purposely geared towards production of calves for herd growth and milk. Similar observation had earlier been made in this study area [11, 12, 17]. This observation has been seen with pastoral herds elsewhere for example the Masai in Kajiado, Kenya [18], Fulani [19] and Darfur, Sudan [20]. This was contrary ‘ among cattle herds in crop-livestock systems in Teso Region in eastern Uganda [21], in Zimbabwe [22], Mali [23] and in Ethiopia [24] where herds were geared towards provision for traction for crop production.
In the study area, goat keeping was for meat production where local Mubende breed; and cross breeds of Exotic Boer and local Mubende goats were kept. It was also found that non- traditional livestock keeping of sheep, pigs and chicken was been being undertaken in this study area. This could be an attempt of diversification sources of income and as a strategy for empowerment of disadvantaged groups: the women and children and coping for effects of climate change.
The mean total household income in Kiruhura (USD 2,531.8) was four times more than that earned in Isingiro district (USD 632.3. This was because sources of household income in Kiruhura were diversified as compared to Isingiro (Table. 3). The sources of income were from sale of cattle, milk, goat, sheep and crops. In addition, in Kiruhura, income was also being earned from sale of ghee, chicken and charcoal; and from fishing.
In Kiruhura, more income was earned from charcoal sale. Lake Mburo National Park and its surrounding rangelands were invaded by Acacia hokii as a result of frequent burning and overgrazing [11, 25]. Frequent burning was done towards the end of the dry season so as to avail lush pasture for livestock grazing during early rainy season. This caused human-livestock-wildlife conflicts because Acacia hokii bush had encroached, replacing pasture. Uprooting Acacia was recommended as a measure to check bush encroachment. Acacia uprooted was used for making charcoal. The increased income earned from the sale of charcoal during droughts was an adaptive strategy to mitigate the effects of drought. Similar observations had been experienced elsewhere in Africa in Zimbabwe [26], Senegal [27] and in Botswana [28] where production of livestock and crops had dropped due to climate change.
During wet seasons, annual crop yields per household in Kiruhura district were high for bananas, beans and maize (Table 9). While in Isingiro crop yields were good for bananas, beans, maize, Irish potatoes and peas (Table 10). Coffee was a major cash crop grown in both districts. After meeting home consumption demands, the crop surplus was sold.
The mean household Total Gross Output (TGO) from agricultural enterprises (Tale 11) in Kiruhura (USD 17,182.3) was 10.1 times more that earned from Isingiro. This showed that Kiruhura was in good position in handling climate change shocks. Cattle was a major source (94.5%) of TGO; of which milk output contributed 88.7%. While in Isingiro district, crops contributed 68.7% of TGO.
Climate change caused economic cost (Table 11) 10.1 times more in Kiruhura (USD 10,262.7) than in Isingiro (USD 1001.8). Drought caused economic loss of 58.7% and 58.1% of TGO in Kiruhura and Isingiro respectively. In Kiruhura, it caused 96.2% loss of output from cattle enterprises due to loss of milk production (Table 4). It caused 80.2% decrease in milk yield, which caused 91.8% increase of milk prices. This greatly affected the profitability of cattle enterprises and the ability of farmers in this geographical location to meet their livelihoods. The aspirations of farmers to modernize their dairy industry according to the Uganda NDP III goals [29] and attaining United Nations Sustainable Development Goals [30] were shattered. The cattle farmers in this area should therefore adopt climate change mitigation measures for production and conservation of forages. Sustainable water catchment and storage facilities also need to be developed and cheap water pumping equipment use be adopted. Similar adaptive strategies have been advocated in Ethiopia in Somali region [31] and in Borana zone [3].
Decrease in milk production disrupted ghee production. There was 84.8% reduction in ghee production in Kiruhura district (Table 4). Ghee production which during normal periods constituted 4.3% of TGO. This was a major source of income for women. There was 74.1% increase in ghee prices.
In Kiruhura, cattle sale off-take increased by 2.3 times during drought periods (Table 5). While cattle crude mortality rate was increased 1.73 times during drought periods. Mortality occurred in all age groups due to lack of pasture. Mortality loss caused 5.8% of EC caused by drought. However, the crude mortality found in this study was much lower than what was earlier reported [14] in the study area. Elsewhere a lot cattle deaths due drought had been observed in Narok county in Kenya [33] and in Southeast Nigeria [34].
Owing to the panic caused by death of cattle, poverty and the need for money to buy food, cattle were sold off at salvage low prices. There was decrease of prices of cattle of all age categories (Table 6). Cattle prices dropped by 46.8% (0.5 times). There was 2.3 times increase in cattle sale off-take during droughts in Kiruhura. Salvage sale loss contributed to 2.9% to economic cost due to drought in Kiruhura (Table 11). In Kaabong district, Karamoja region in Uganda, salvage sale losses contributed 7.2% of economic cost due cattle diseases per household [35]. Elsewhere these effects were also most felt among the pastoral communities in Kenya [36, 37, 38], in Ethiopia [39, 40, 41], in Burkina Faso [42] and in Nigeria [34]. Earlier work done in the study area [14] showed that the economic cost of drought among cattle in this area was less severe. The more economic cost observed in this current study was high due to increased losses from milk output as local Ankole cattle breed was been improved using exotic Friesian Dairy breeds for milk production.
In Isingiro and Kiruhura, drought crop losses constituted 96% and 3.8% respectively to economic losses caused by climate change. Climate change caused 70.7% and 82.6% of crop output loss in Kiruhura and Isingiro respectively. In Isingiro, crop losses caused by drought was very severe blow to the survival of households. They were solely depended on crops for livelihoods (Tables 3 and 11). Isingiro was previously known as the food basket of western Uganda.
Due to scarcity of food and their high demand, the prices of food increased (Tables 9 and 10). Isingiro was the worst hit because it mainly depended on crops for livelihoods. This finding was in agreement with what was earlier reported [43] in the same district. This situation forced households to sell their property, like land and iron sheets or to contract loans from various microfinance institutions in order to procure food. In some households, men abandoned their homes after failing to pay their loans. The sale of family assets often resulted into domestic violence. Earlier study [44] in Ethiopia confirmed these findings. The distortion of food prices and supply caused by climate change in the area was being exacerbated by the current Ukraine-Russian war [45].
Elsewhere in the Okavango region of Botswana, drought had a high negative impact on crop yields, especially maize and sorghum [28, 39]. In Eastern Africa, reduction in rainfall by 50-150mm caused drastic reduction in maize and sorghum yields [39, 46]. Drought caused total crop loss in Somali region in Ethiopia [41] and among agro-pastoral households in Southeast Nigeria [34].
In this study, it was shown that sorghum, millet, cassava, sweet potatoes and cabbages could with stand effects of drought. Growth of these crops should be promoted in the study area as adaptive measure to proof crop losses caused by climate change. Elsewhere, in sub-Africa, this has been promoted as climate change resilience proof measure [34, 47].
Income losses from climate impacts were felt more in Kiruhura than in Isingiro (Table 11). Kiruhura lost (USD 10,203.7) 10.2 times more than Isingiro (USD 1,001.8). The economic cost due to drought found by this study in Kiruhura was twice the amount of losses earlier reported [14]. This was because most of the economic losses (83.5%) were from milk losses. This was due to a shift of the Bahima cattle keeping community in the study area from being purely pastoralists to sedentary agro-pastoralists who were now keeping improved dairy cattle for milk production. With this new adopted production system, climate change becomes a very sensitive factor. Drought affects pasture and water availability which severely affected milk production hence profitability of cattle enterprises. There was a complete shift from using mobility as an adaptive strategy during harsh dry periods [48].
It was shown that goats thrived well during droughts in the study area. The mortality rates were decreased by 89.4% (Table 7). The prices of goats more than doubled (Table 8). The goats were doing well due to plenty of Acacia hokii bush. Goat keeping should be promoted in the study area to act as drought proof measure and as well as a biological control for Acacia hokii bush pasture weed in Kiruhura district. Off-ake rates of goats increased by 27.8%. Similar findings have been earlier been reported [28] in Bostwana.
Climate change affected crop yields making food insecurity inevitable [46, 49]. The study showed that food insecurity in the study area (Table 12) affected food consumption trends during droughts. There was drastic reduction in milk production in Kiruhura during droughts. Milk consumption among children also reduced to zero in Isingiro and by 60% in Kiruhura. There was no milk consumption among adults in both Isingiro and Kiruhura during drought periods. Similar effects had been observed [42] in Burkina Faso where milk, which used to be the staple food by farmers, was replaced by cereals due to reduction of milk production caused by climate change. The frequency of meal consumption was reduced to one meal per day. This risked both children and adults becoming malnourished. Elsewhere climate change has caused global food insecurity [46] especially among African people [32–34, 47, 50–58]. In the study area, prices of food, especially cereals, increased during drought periods (Tables 9 and 10). This indicated that, in future, to alleviate food shortages as climate change takes tighter grip, external support may be required to provide food relief.