We estimated the cost-effectiveness of introducing the Whooley questionnaire for screening and CBT compared with TAU alone for treating perinatal depression over a single perinatal period using a hypothetical decision tree model. We defined a single perinatal period up to 1 year postpartum. As Hong Kong was the setting for our economic model all costs were calculated using Hong Kong Dollars (HKD). This model was split into two parts, TAU and Whooley screening with possible CBT, and there was one cycle in the entire perinatal period (pregnancy to 1 year postpartum). The model divided 50% of individuals who received TAU or screening using the Whooley questionnaire. In the TAU arm, individuals may or may not have depression, if they have depression, they may remain stable or in remission; if they don’t have depression, they may stay stable or may develop depression after treatment. In the Whooley arm, individuals may have depression. This may or may not be detected by the Whooley, there is also the risk of false positive. Those receiving screening with a positive result for depression would be offered CBT, although it is assumed not all would participate in CBT, they will receive TAU. For those that accept CBT, we assumed to complete 10 sessions at any time during the antenatal period. For false positives and true positives, we assumed some would participate in CBT, and the rest of the patients (true negative and false negative) would participate in TAU.
The probability of perinatal mothers suffering from depression was assumed to be the same as that of the incidence rate in Hong Kong reported in survey data studies. TAU and CBT were considered the current practice in Hong Kong for treating perinatal depression. Due to currently available study data limitations, we did not account for the additional health and economic costs associated with false negative and false positive results. In our model, we defined two possible outcomes post-treatment: remission or no remission of depression (regardless of severity). Since the entire model continues only the perinatal period, we did not include the risk of death for individuals. This model structure of this study is shown in Fig. 1.
The parameters required for this model are presented in 6 sections. For each part, priority was given to the research on the perinatal depression of Hong Kong mothers. When lacking relevant data, we considered the results of research from other countries or regions, where possible studies from similar economies, cultures, and healthcare systems were used. For the same parameter, if different values were reported across studies, the median was used as the baseline analysis parameter, and the reported upper and lower values were used in the deterministic sensitive analysis. For parameters taken from meta-analysis or other studies, we selected the pooled values and 95% confidence intervals for analysis. For probabilistic sensitivity analysis, we constructed the appropriate distributions for the collected data.
2.1.1 Transition Probabilities
We defined the effectiveness of TAU and CBT as the proportion of mothers who experienced treatment-induced remission of depression (excluding spontaneous remission). At the same time, the models also considered treatment failure (remission to depression). To make the parameters of the model more reliable, we collected 34 published and peer-reviewed literature involving evaluating CBT compared to TAU for perinatal depression.
We excluded studies that did not report patient depression remission and dropout rates, specify whether Face-to-Face CBT (FCBT) and TAU that were performed in clinic settings, mothers had severe comorbidities (e.g., epilepsy or HIV), included CBT combined with other active treatments (e.g., medication), and studies that were exclusively focused on specific ethnicities. After screening for articles in MEDLINE, there were 19 studies reporting effectiveness rates and relapse rates for TAU and CBT for perinatal depression [10, 11, 23–40]. Subsequently, we summarized this data and provided additional details to estimate parameters. After completing one treatment cycle, the pooled remission rate for CBT was 0.746, while the pooled remission rate for TAU was 0.423. Additionally, the pooled relapse rate for CBT was 0.089, and for TAU, it was 0.267.
2.1.2 Incidence Rate of Perinatal Depression
In Hong Kong, perinatal depression is estimated to affect 20% of individuals [41–48]. According to this information, we adjusted the model parameters to reflect this real-life scenario. We collected 8 relevant literature sources reporting the incidence rate in Hong Kong [41–48]. The stages of perinatal depression included prenatal, postpartum, and perinatal depression. The screening method was structural psychological interviews administered by healthcare providers. After excluding literature that did not report patient dropout rates and mothers with severe comorbidities, we identified a pooled incidence rate of perinatal depression in our model as 0.197 (19.7%).
2.1.3 Specificity and Sensitivity of Whooley Questionnaire (True-Negative and True-Positive)
For the specificity and sensitivity of the Whooley questionnaire, the results of a meta-analysis were utilized that examined the diagnostic validity in perinatal depression [7]. A total of 10 studies were included in the review. All studies were included in the meta-analysis section and the heterogeneity of these studies was low. The pooled sensitivity and specificity in this study were employed in the decision model for estimating parameters for true positive, false positive, true negative, and false negative (sensitivity 0.950, specificity 0.650) [7].
2.1.4 Willingness to Accept CBT
At present, no data for estimating the acceptance rates of perinatal individuals’ willingness to receive CBT after screening positive for the Whooley questionnaire have been reported. To estimate the acceptance rate of CBT in perinatal individuals 13 RCTs evaluating CBT were used, the acceptance rate was based on the number of individuals who declined during the recruitment to take part in the study, as a proxy for mothers' willingness to accept CBT [25, 49–60]. We excluded studies that failed to report the recruitment process or failed to report the number of samples that declined to enter the study. We found that the willingness of perinatal mothers to accept CBT therapy varied greatly due to differences in samples, and experimental designs. The acceptance rates ranged from 0.273 to 0.980 without any consistent pattern [25, 49–60]. Therefore, we selected the median 0.566 as the baseline parameter.
2.1.5 Measurement of Costs
We were unable to collect any model-eligible cost data for FCBT for perinatal individuals directly from studies conducted in Hong Kong. Therefore, the cost parameters for the model were extracted from an RCT which included a cost-effectiveness analysis conducted [61] in 2014 in Japan. The study spanned approximately 64 weeks and was divided into two phases. We selected the second period of cost data that was more consistent with the model assumptions and expanded the FCBT cost to 10 sessions of treatment. For the cost of performing the Whooley questionnaire screening, we selected data from a study conducted in the United Kingdom, which estimated that the Whooley questionnaire screening takes 1.71 minutes at a cost of professional nurses to administer between £0.92 and £2.65 [62]. We examined the International Monetary Funds’ published inflation rates for the Japanese yen from 2014 to 2023, the purchasing power evaluation of the Japanese yen for 2023, the inflation rate for the British pound from 2014 to 2023, and the purchasing power evaluation of the British pound for 2023 to convert relevant costs. After calculation, the inflation factor for the Japanese yen from 2014 to 2023 was 1.078, and the British pound inflation coefficient from 2014 to 2023 was 1.227 [63–65]. Therefore, in 2023, 1 yen was equivalent to 0.05584 HKD, and £1 was equivalent to 9.739 HKD [63–65].
We modeled for TAU and CBT to be conducted in a clinical setting. The total perinatal period cost of TAU was divided into consultation and medication components, while CBT was divided into consultation, medication, and administration of CBT components. In the cost of a single session, the cost of routine counseling (37.29 HKD) and psychiatric administration (170.91 HKD) were assigned to the consultation cost component. The cost of prescriptions (61.63 HKD) and the cost of average daily weighted clinical medication (40.74 HKD) were assigned to the medication component. The CBT component only included the cost of treatments associated with the CBT in each session (248.59 HKD). A single session of CBT was estimated to last 50 minutes, conducted by a healthcare provider [61]. After collecting all estimated costs, the Whooley screening cost was 35.97 HKD, the consultation components of CBT and TAU were predicted as 4,242.97 HKD and 4,195.79 HKD respectively, the medication component as 4,810.12 HKD and 4,185.33 HKD respectively, and the total CBT component as 2589.48 HKD over a perinatal period.
2.1.6 Health Utility
In our model, we used quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) to represent the post-treatment effects and utilize the data extracted as quality-of-life weights. Since the entire model lasted only one period, we assumed that the QALYs of the sample did not change during the perinatal period. No study was identified that reported that are fully compatible with assessing the QALYs for perinatal depression. Therefore, a pharmacoeconomic study about depression was used to estimate the utility of our study [66]. The study assessed the status of patients in various stages of depression. Based on their health status, the patients were divided into two groups: those with mild to moderate depression and those in depression remission. The mean utility scores for patients with depression were estimated at 0.63 QALYs and 0.86 QALYs for depression remission during treatment [66]. All model parameters in this study are shown in Table 1
Table 1
Model parameters used in the health economic model
Model Parameter | Baseline | Standard Deviation | Distribution Type | Deterministic | Source |
Low | High |
Cost (HKD) | | | | | | |
Unit cost of each healthcare service | | | | | | |
Routine counseling (per visit) | 37.29 | - | - | - | - | [61] |
Psychiatric administration fee (per visit) | 170.91 | - | - | - | - | [61] |
Prescription fee (per prescription) | 61.63 | - | - | - | - | [61] |
CBT (per session) | 248.59 | - | - | - | - | [61] |
Average daily weighted clinical medication | 40.74 | - | - | - | - | [61] |
Cost of whole stage (10 sessions) | | | | | | |
TAU | | | | | | |
Consultation cost | 4195.79 | 2746.20 | Gamma | 3344.74 | 5046.85 | [61] |
Medication cost | 4185.33 | 3235.04 | Gamma | 3182.78 | 5187.88 | [61] |
Whooley combined with CBT | | | | | | |
Consultation cost | 4242.97 | 2363.37 | Gamma | 3510.56 | 4975.39 | [61] |
Medication cost | 4810.12 | 3361.36 | Gamma | 3768.43 | 5851.82 | [61] |
Administration of CBT | 2589.48 | 1906.20 | Gamma | 1998.74 | 3180.22 | [61] |
Whooley screening cost (per person) | 35.97 | 68.15 | Gamma | 14.85 | 57.09 | [62] |
Whooley combined with TAU | | | | | | |
Consultation cost | 4195.79 | 2746.20 | Gamma | 3344.74 | 5046.85 | [61] |
Medication cost | 4185.33 | 3235.04 | Gamma | 3182.78 | 5187.88 | [61] |
Whooley screening cost (per person) | 35.97 | 68.15 | Gamma | 14.85 | 57.09 | [62] |
Incidence rate in Hong Kong | 0.197 | - | Beta | 0.155 | 0.262 | [41–48] |
Screening accuracy | | | | | | |
True negative | 0.650 | 0.290 | Beta | 0.560 | 0.740 | [7] |
True positive | 0.950 | 0.145 | Beta | 0.880 | 0.970 | [7] |
Transition probabilities | | | | | | |
CBT group | | | | | | |
Depression to remission | 0.746 | - | Beta | 0.628 | 0.838 | [10, 11, 23–29] |
Remission to depression | 0.089 | - | Beta | 0.047 | 0.135 | [26, 30–32, 39, 40] |
TAU group | | | | | | |
Depression to remission | 0.423 | - | Beta | 0.326 | 0.524 | [11, 23–25, 27, 33–37] |
Remission to depression | 0.267 | - | Beta | 0.182 | 0.346 | [30–32, 38, 39] |
Willingness to accept CBT | 0.566 | - | Uniform | 0.273 | 0.980 | [25, 49–60] |
Health utility (QALYs) | | | | | | |
Depression | 0.630 | 0.174 | Beta | 0.576 | 0.684 | [66] |
Remission | 0.860 | 0.121 | Beta | 0.823 | 0.897 | [66] |
Table 1. Model parameters used in the health economic model
Sensitivity Analyses
This study involved synthesizing data from various sources, forms of error, and model uncertainty had to be assessed in a multivariate approach using various assumptions. To account for uncertainty in the model parameters, we conducted deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. For the deterministic model, we used 95% confidence intervals of various reported cost values, specificity and sensitivity of the Whooley questionnaire and patients' QALYs, as well as the reported minimum and maximum values for willingness to accept CBT, transition probabilities, and the incidence rate of perinatal depression. For the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, we conducted 10,000 Monte Carlo simulation repetitions. We randomly selected input parameters from the Gamma distribution (cost of treatment), Beta distribution (sensitivity and specificity of the Whooley questionnaire, QALY values, transition probabilities, incidence rate of perinatal depression), or Uniform distribution (willingness to accept CBT).
We calculated the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) based on the combined costs and effectiveness derived from the sensitivity analyses. If there is a trade-off between cost and effectiveness, a threshold is needed; that is, how much society is willing to pay for additional health. We set the level of society's willingness-to-pay (WTP) at 194,780 HKD (about £20,000) per QALY, which is the lower threshold set by NICE [9]. In addition, we generated tornado diagrams, incremental cost-effectiveness scatter plots, and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves to assess the likelihood of the intervention being cost-effective.