Study Setting
Uganda had a population of about 44.3 million in 2019, with nearly half its population under age 15 (33). Uganda is characterized by high fertility; the total fertility rate (TFR) in 2016 was 5.4 births, down from 6.9 in 2000-2001 (19). Modern contraceptive use in Uganda has also increased in recent years, from 21% in 2014 to 30% in 2018. Injectables were the most common method used in 2018 (39%), followed by implants (20%) (ibid). Despite the increase in contraceptive use, high rates of contraceptive discontinuation persist; nationally, 20% of IUD users, 17% of implant users, 36% of injectable users, and 46% of pill users discontinued in the first year of use, while in need of protection against unintended pregnancy.
Study Overview and Sampling
Data for this study come from two rounds of Performance Monitoring and Accountability (PMA2020) data collection in Uganda. Specifically, in PMA2020 Uganda’s sixth cross-sectional survey (20), conducted from April to June 2018 (hereafter referred to as baseline), the consent and design were modified to enroll women in a longitudinal study. A follow-up survey was conducted approximately after one-year from May to June 2019.
The PMA2020 is a multi-stage cluster, nationally representative survey of women age 15-49. In the baseline survey, 110 Enumeration Areas (EA) were selected using probability proportional to size sampling and all occupied households were enumerated. Forty-four households were randomly selected within each EA, consented, and interviewed. All women age 15-49 who were either usual members of the household or who slept in the household the night before were approached for interview, and if consented, interviewed by a trained interviewer. A total sample of 4,288 women were interviewed in the baseline survey (response rate: 96.9%); the majority (95.5%; n=4,095) of women agreed to participate in the follow-up survey. Further information on the design of PMA2020 surveys is available from www.pmadata.org and Zimmerman et al (2017).
At follow-up, interviewers returned to the households of women who completed the baseline survey and re-consented women to participate in the follow-up survey. We were able to relocate and successfully interview 2,755 of the original sample, resulting in a follow-up rate of 67%. Due to potential bias from loss to follow-up, we constructed an inverse probability weight from estimated propensity scores to adjust differential loss to follow-up. Using the total sample of women from baseline (n=4,288), we adjusted for the probability of being interviewed at follow-up accounting for age (five-year age groups), education (none, primary, secondary and higher) , marital status (currently married/in-union, not married), wealth (five quintiles), and residence (urban,rural). The original baseline individual female weight was then multipled by the inverse probability weight to construct the final weight in the analyses. No significant differences in baseline characteristics between all women in the baseline and those who were successfully followed-up were detected after the application of the final sampling weights.
Analytic Sample
This analysis was restricted to women who reported currently using hormonal contraception (implant, injectable, pill) and IUD at baseline. Of note, we are unable to differentiate between hormonal and non-hormonal IUD use. Users of emergency contraception were excluded due to the periodicity in its use and female sterilization users were excluded as they would not be able to discontinue or switch methods. Condoms and other barrier and traditional methods were excluded as systemic side-effects were not anticipated from using these methods. In total, 550 women were included in this analysis; the flowchart of sample selection process is shown in Figure 1. Data was complete for all observations used in analysis. The follow-up rate for the analytic sample was also 67%; 550 users were relocated out of 819 pill, implant, injectable, and IUD users at baseline.
Measures
At baseline, women were asked to report whether they were currently experiencing any side-effects, and if so, to specify all that they were currently experiencing (with multiple-response options; responses were not read aloud). The list of side-effects was drawn from the literature on clinically documented side-effects, and those that have been reported in qualitative research in Uganda. The list was reviewed with the in-country team and pilot tested; the complete list of side-effects and frequencies with which they were reported is shown in Appendix 1.
The outcomes related to contraceptive behavior were defined based on the woman’s contraceptive use status at the time of follow-up survey. Specifically, women were categorized in to three groups: either continuing (using the same method at baseline and follow-up), switched (using a different method at baseline and follow-up), or discontinued (not using a method at follow-up). We assessed the distribution of each outcome by method type (implant, IUD, injectables, and oral pills).
Covariates
All analyses adjusted for the following socio-demographic variables measured at baseline: age (categorical variable of 15-24, 25-34, and 35 and above), marital status (binary variable indicating married/in-union), residence (urban or rural), education (categorical variable indicating none, primary, or secondary and above), and parity (categorical variable of 0-1, 2-3, or 4+ children). We combined nulliparous and primiparous women, as there were only nine nulliparous women included in the analytic sample. Due to sample size limitations, we created a binary variable for wealth, indicating whether the respondent resided in a household in one of the lowest two wealth quintiles (0) or the wealthier three (1). To account for the fact that side-effects may be more frequent when initiating a method and resolve over time, we included a binary variable indicating whether the woman started her method less than 12 months prior to the baseline interview. We used a 12-month time frame to align with previous research (32). We adjusted for method used at baseline with a binary variable indicating short-acting (pill and injectable) or long-acting method (IUD and implant). As the mechanism of discontinuation differs between short- and long-acting methods (i.e. a clinical visit is necessary to stop using either the implant, the hormonal or the non-hormonal IUD, but not necessary for the pill or injectable), we felt that it was important to understand whether the risk of discontinuation and switching is modified by the method type. Finally, we adjusted for stated fertility intentions at baseline (wanted child within two years, wanted child after two years, wanted no more children). The purpose of our analysis is to assess the effect of experiencing side-effects at the population level of contraceptive users, thus, we adjusted for, but did not exclude observations, based on women’s reported fertility intentions. It is possible that women are more likely to tolerate side-effects when their desire to control their fertility is more pronounced, for example, women who want no more children, and thus, we felt the inclusion of fertility intentions in the model was critical. Using the full sample also enables us to make inferences about the results at the population level rather than for a sub-group of women who wish to avoid or delay a pregnancy.
Analysis
Exploratory analyses assessed the prevalence of each side-effect for further modeling considerations. Based on sample size, the following side-effects were combined: “uterine cramping”, “cramping”, “headache”, “nausea”, and “weakness” (“physical discomfort”); “vaginal dryness” and “lowered libido” (“vaginal dryness/lowered libido”); “spotting” and “irregular bleeding” (“irregular bleeding”).
Only side-effects that were reported by a minimum of 20 women were included in models. Unadjusted multinomial models assessed the risk of discontinuing or switching, relative to continuing, among women who reported experiencing the side-effect compared to women who did not. As women could experience multiple side-effects at once, we ran adjusted multinomial models that included all side-effects and the covariates listed above. Sensitivity analyses were conducted with the inclusion of only one side-effect at a time and results were largely consistent (Appendix 2 and 3).
Descriptive analyses (Table 1- Table 3 below ) applied the survey weights described above. Due to small sample sizes and because weighting increases variances and design-effects substantially, we tested the efficiency of the application of weights in the multinomial regressions. The inefficiency index (34) of each unadjusted multinomial model assessing the relationship of each side-effect ranged from 8% to 56% with a median of 30%. To maximize efficiency, we followed guidance from Korn and Graubard and did not apply the survey weights to the regression multinomial models (34); we did, however, adjust for clustering using design-based analysis. All analyses were conducted using Stata v16.0 (35). We used the STROBE cohort checklist when writing our report (36).