Our study represents a unique long term monitoring effort of a salmonid population in an environment experiencing significant anthropogenic pressure. In addition to providing insights into demographic trends, the results raised the interesting possibility of concordance between migration timing and kinship in smolts and adult spawners. Finally, and most importantly, parentage assignment of an entire cohort of migrating smolts showed that resident parents contribute substantially to the anadromous run. We discuss these findings and their conservation implications in more detail below.
Temporal trends of census and effective population size
The number of anadromous trout ascending the Guddal River varied considerably among years, but did not show a general tendency for decline over the study period, although numbers of spawners were lower in 2006-2016 than in 2000-2006. Salmon farming in the Hardangerfjord accellerated during the 1990s, so it is expected that the most severe population declines occurred during that period and have subsequently stabilized, as indicated by our results.
Similar to census sizes of anadromous spawning run, effective population size estimates also showed no general trends towards declines during the study period. This comes with the caveat that estimates of Ne based on linkage disequilibrium are sensitive to low sample sizes [71], which for some years/samples resulted in low precision of estimates. It may seem surprising that the Ne estimate based on smolts (51) was much lower than any of the estimates based on anadromous spawners. However, as noted previously this estimate is not completely comparable to estimates from adult anadromous spawners; the smolt run in a given year is expected to represent fewer cohorts compared to adult spawners and would therefore represent something in between Ne and Nb (the effective number of breeders in a single breeding event [63, 64]).
The Ne estimates of a few hundreds are comparable to most other estimates found in anadromous brown trout populations using temporal or LD-based methods [54, 72-74], but higher than most estimates from strictly resident populations [75-78]. Whereas Ne in the Guddal population is lower than the 500 or even 1,000 assumed to be required for maintaining evolutionary potential [79, 80], it should be noted that it is part of a larger system in the Hardanger Fjord where gene flow occurs among populations [54]. In general, anadromous brown trout populations have been found to exhibit a hierarchical genetic structure shaped by both geographical distance between populations and environmental parameters, with low genetic differentiation among local populations resulting from gene flow [81]. Evolutionary potential should thus be considered across several neighbouring populations, where total Ne is expected to be higher [82].
Concordance of migration timing of related individuals
Association of kin along with the possibility of kin selection has been studied intensively in salmonids [30, 83-87]. As sibs during the earliest life stages are situated in the same spawning redds, spatial association of kin would be expected to occur immediately after hatching, whereas subsequent drift and dispersal would lead to decreased kin association over time, unless active kin recognition and association takes place [87]. The significant association betwen migration timing and relatedness as observed in smolts in the present study can hardly be ascribed to reminiscent patterns of association of kin several years back in time in their spawning redds, but could reflect: 1) active aggregation of kin, 2) genetic components in the timing of smolt migration, and/or 3) similarity in size of sibs and thereby propensity for migrating at the same time, simply because sibs hatched and emerged from the same redds at the same time. Whereas the study does not allow for distinguishing between these possibilities, we note that 2) and 3) are the most parsimonious explanations and also indirectly supported by empirical results [42, 88, 89], including data from Atlantic salmon demonstrating clear genetic components in migration timing [90].
Interestingly, our results are at odds with those from a different study on migration timing and kinship in Atlantic salmon, which found no significant association between kinship and schooling and migration timing in smolts [91]. Part of the reason for the discrepancy of results could lie in different experimental set-ups. The study by Fernandes et al. [91] was based on experimental full-sib families stocked into a natural environment at the same point in time, whereas our study encompassed the total smolt run composed of families naturally spawned and hatched over an extended period of time. This would leave more statistical power in our study for detecting association between kinship and migration timing resulting from similar hatching time and size of sibs, without necessarily involving active kin aggregation or genetic components in migration timing.
We also found some support for association between kin and timing of upstream migration among anadromous trout, although significant associations were observed in only four out of eleven years. Few studies of possible kin-biased aggregation of adult salmonid fishes have been conducted, undoubtedly due to challenges with sampling. However, one study found kin associations to occur at the adult stage outside the spawning period in brook char (Salvelinus fontinalis) inhabiting a large freshwater lake [30]. Nevertheless, kinship analysis of spawners in a tributary to the same lake provided no evidence for association of kin [92]. As noted by the authors, this could be an effect of accummulated mortality over time, leaving few surviving related individuals at the time of spawning. This could also be the case in our present study, where numbers of anadromous spawners per year were overall low.
In total, there was evidence for association between kinship and migration time in smolts, and also evidence, albeit less consistent, for such an association in spawners returning to the river. The association found in smolts raises the possibility that episodes of increased marine mortality, e.g. due to salmon lice exposure or fluctuating aggregations of predators, could potentially increase variance in mortality among families, which could again lead to higher variance in reproductive success among families and lower effective population size. Sibs were found among anadromous spawners in all years except for 2010 (with only 25 ascending anadromous spawners), but whether this reflects a disproportionally high variance in mortality among families compared to undisturbed conditions cannot be assessed. This would require comparable data from the system before major environmental disturbance of the Hardangerfjord system took place.
To what extent does the resident stock of Guddal brown trout population contribute to the sea run?
In systems like the Hardanger Fjord with increased marine mortality [38-40, 44], it is important to assess to which extent the resident part of the population can compensate for recruitment in the case of a reduced number of anadromous spawners. Moreover, it is important to consider to what extent this will drive changes in anadromy.
Although we did not genotype candidate parents among the resident trout, our findings of parentage nevertheless are in accordance with expectations given the skewed sex-ratio observed among anadromous and resident spawners [7, 27, 32, 34], providing further confidence in our results. Hence, only 4% of all smolts in 2017 had an anadromous father and putatively resident mother, whereas 42% had a putatively resident father and anadromous mother. In total, 70% of the smolts had either one or two inferred resident parents, with the latter category accounting for 24% of all smolts.
In the case of resident males, it is likely that many of them are in fact precocious male parr, as studies of both brown trout and other salmonids have shown that they can be both numerous and have significant reproductive success [8, 33, 34, 93]. On the other hand, the contribution to the 2017 smolt run was higher for anadromous than putatively resident females (72% versus 28%), which could reflect a higher number of anadromous relative to resident females and/or the fact that it is more advantageous as a female to migrate to sea in order to maximize body weight and egg production and thereby reproductive success [94, 95]. In the context of elevated mortality rates at sea, these results demonstrate the resident trout may indeed have some buffering effects towards a decline of anadromous spawners and that a sizeable proportion of smolts in fact have two resident parents. Given the high contribution of anadromous females to the smolt run it is nevertheless also evident that strong declines of the anadromous portion of the population would likely have significant negative demographic consequences for the total population. It should also be stressed that high marine mortality would lead to reduced gene flow among populations, hence reducing overall effective metapopulation size (as in for instance the entire Hardanger Fjord system) and potentially leading to inbreeding and loss of variation in individual populations [82].
Could long-term elevated marine mortality select against anadromy and ultimately remove it from the population? If we assume that anadromy is a quantitative trait with an environmentally-cued threshold [12], then in this case high levels of genetic variation could be preserved even under directional selection acting against it [96]. This way, even if migration costs are increasing, the propensity to migrate within a population may persist. This finds empirical support in studies of brown trout [74] and other salmonid species that have been landlocked for centuries (e.g. by dams) such as brook charr [97], rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss [98] and bull trout Salvelinus confluentus [99], but where migratory behaviour is retained. Nevertheless, recent studies have demonstrated major quantitative trait loci for important life history and migratory traits in e.g. Chinook Oncorhynchus tshawytscha [14] and Atlantic salmon [15]. If such genetically based variation also exists in brown trout, then increased marine mortality could exert strong selection and lead to genetic and phenotypic changes in populations, even if anadromy per se is retained.