Japan was one of the first countries worldwide to face the challenges associated with a super-aging society; the population over 65 years of age (older adults) exceeded 21% of the total population in 2010. Japan’s total population is also declining, decreasing by 510,000 in 2021 compared to the previous year. In contrast, the older adult population in the same year was the largest ever at 36.4 million, corresponding to 29.1% of the total population (1). The proportion of older adults in Japan is projected to increase to 35.3% (38.6 million people) by 2042 (1). This super-aging society is a consequence of a demographic crisis caused by low fertility rates and prolonged life expectancy. Life expectancy in Japan was 81.4 for males and 87.5 for females, with an increase of 1.86 and 1.15 years in males and females, respectively, in nine years (1). In the same year, Japan’s healthy life expectancy was 72.7 years for males and 75.4 years for females, with a difference of 8.7 years for males and 12.1 years for females (1). Healthy life expectancy is defined as the average number of years a person can live in full health, without limitations in daily activities (1). In other words, during the 10 years between these two periods, a person requires nursing care and support, where ADL (Activity of Daily Life) and Quality of Life (QOL) decline, which is referred to as an unhealthy period. The unhealthy period also increases social security burdens, such as medical costs and long-term care benefits; therefore, it is a critical issue that must be solved not only as an individual health issue, but also as a societal issue. Therefore, extending healthy life expectancy is a global health issue, not only in Japan, which has a leading aging population.
In Japan, the government, in cooperation with local governments, has been taking measures to extend healthy life expectancy for at least three years; the life expectancy is expected to reach 75 years and above by 2040 (1). Due to the measures taken from the perspectives of exercise, diet, and smoking cessation, healthy life expectancy has increased between 2010 and 2019 by 2.3 and 1.8 years in males and females, respectively (1). However, improvement in the unhealthy period was only 0.4 and 0.6 in males and females, respectively (1); reducing unhealthy periods might be difficult simply by using measures to extend healthy life expectancy. Thus, preventing conditions requiring care and support, which are significant causes of unhealthy periods, is indispensable to resolving the discrepancy and reducing unhealthy periods.
Japan has a long-term care insurance system that supports people who require long-term care by providing services, such as welfare services, according to the level of required long-term care based on each individual’s mental and physical conditions (1). Individuals certified as requiring support or long-term care under this system can be considered unhealthy. In 2022, the number of individuals certified as requiring support or long-term care under this system reached 7.0 million (about 19.0% of people aged > 65 years) (1). We believe the number of older adults in an unhealthy period should be larger because certification is based on voluntary applications. The major causes of support or long-term care requirement were dementia (18.7%), cerebrovascular disease (CVD, 15.1%), and frailty due to old age (frailty, 13.8%), followed by musculoskeletal diseases, such as joint disease (10.2%) and falls and fractures (12.5%) (1). Musculoskeletal diseases account for approximately 25% of all musculoskeletal diseases. Notably, this proportion increased to 54.6% when we also included diseases such as CVD and frailty, which often impair musculoskeletal function and limit ADL. Therefore, preventing musculoskeletal dysfunction is vital for preventing people from becoming supported and requiring long-term care (long-term care prevention), which will contribute to reducing the unhealthy period by maintaining and even improving ADL and QOL.
Exercise and dietary interventions are recommended for long-term care prevention (2). Exercise directly affects physical function and improves balance and muscle strength. An indirect effect that improves gut microbiome diversity is also known (3). The gut microbiome is endemic to the digestive tract, and previous studies have shown a close relationship with human health, not only gastrointestinal diseases (4, 5). For example, interventions that target modification of the gut microbiome environment are reportedly effective in diabetes mellitus, liver disease, depression, and irritable bowel syndrome (4–8). One study suggested that physical activity might benefit gut microbiome composition, which contributes to healthy aging (9). However, the biological mechanisms by which exercise induces these changes have not yet been clarified. Furthermore, the involvement of the gut microbiome in age-related decline in musculoskeletal function has not yet been elucidated. Thus, we focused on studying the association between the gut microbiome and musculoskeletal function, considering the effect of age. We believe that by clarifying this association, the gut microbiome may serve as a tool for the prevention of long-term care. For example, if the gut microbiome affects musculoskeletal function, changes in the gut microbiome that deteriorate nutrient absorption might be the cause. In this case, supplementation with food or products that would improve the gut microbiome environment and conventional nutritional interventions might be effective. Conversely, if musculoskeletal dysfunction affects the gut microbiome, an altered gut microbiome environment may trigger sequelae that further impair musculoskeletal function. Nevertheless, clarifying the association between the gut microbiome and musculoskeletal function may provide novel measures for long-term care prevention that contribute to reducing unhealthy periods.
We aimed to clarify the association between gut microbiome and musculoskeletal function using cross-sectional data from a cohort of healthy individuals in Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan. To achieve this, we employed decision tree analysis, a method particularly suited for exploring complex, non-linear relationships in biological data. This approach allows for the identification of key variables and their interactions without assuming a predetermined model structure, making it ideal for investigating the potentially intricate associations between gut microbiome composition and locomotive syndrome risk.