Geotechnical investigations were conducted at 31 borehole points along the study site by laboratory soil sample tests and standard penetration tests (SPT). The borehole test point distribution map is presented in Fig. 2. The results of geotechnical investigations show that the soil stratigraphy of the study site is dominated by sandy soil with a medium density level, with the dominant soil classifications described as silty sand, well-graded sand, and poorly graded sand. Figure 4 provides a cross-section of the soil stratigraphy at the study area, represented by 6 borehole points, namely TB BH-01, TB BH-04, TS BH-11, TS BH-27, TT BH-04, and TT BH-08. There are small portions of clay and silts in the form of sandy silty clay, at a depth between 24 to 38 m at TB BH-04.
Penetration resistance values at borehole points on the west side of the Progo River indicate the presence of hard soil layers beneath 30 m depth, characterized by N-SPT values of 60 at a depth of 30 m to 40 m. The soil that appears to be looser on the west side of the Progo River is at a depth of 0 to 8 m with an average N-SPT value below 30. In contrast to the west side, the penetration resistance values at the borehole points on the east side and riverside tend to be more variable. The soil layer at a depth of 40 m in four (4) borehole points on the east side (TT-BH 01, TT-BH02, TT-BH03, TT-BH04) and six (6) borehole points on the riverside (TS BH-17, TS BH-19, TS BH-21, TS BH-23, TS BH-25, TS BH-27) have N-SPT values in the range of 18 to 32. The soil layers on the east side and riverside tend to be slightly less dense than the west side with N-SPT values below 30 to a depth of 16m. Figure 5 shows the soil profile for each west side, riverside, and east side.
Figure 6 shows the H/V Curve as output from data processing through Geopsy version 2.9.1. Each line on the H/V curve represents the vibrations recorded by the seismograph during the test. The dashed lines indicate the range of all detected vibration frequencies.
In the noise filtering process, the number of windows (Iw) used is between 40 to 80. Microtremor recording data at 18 test points resulted in frequency values between 1.26 Hz to 3.66 Hz with an average frequency value recorded at 2.42 Hz. Frequency values above 1 Hz indicate that the vibration sources are generally due to human activities, wind, and water flow, and other vibration sources close to the ground surface.
Frequency values above 1 Hz also indicate that the test time was conducted during the day. Furthermore, considering the reliability of the curves formed, the f0 value obtained shows that the reliability criteria of the H/V curves produced are fulfilled (f0 > 10/Iw).
Figure 6. shows that based on the 6 microtremor test sample points at the site, there is variability of the H/V curves resulting in different forms of curves at each test point. Broad peaks (multiple peaks) are shown at the point of TA 05 in Fig. 6 (a). This form of the H/V curve may occur due to the difference in slope between the soft soil layer and the hard soil layer in an elongated alluvial valley.
TA 10 and TA 14 in Fig. 6. (b) and (e) respectively show clear peaks. Clear peaks at the sedimentary deposits indicate that the upper part of the study site is soft soil (not a disturbance). This is consistent with the results obtained through SPT which shows that there is a layer of loose soil with N-SPT value below 15 with a thickness of 6 m on the ground surface at points TB BH-04 and TT BH-04. Ground motion amplification is very likely to occur at points that have clear peaks due to soil conditions.
Three points are showing H/V curves with two peaks, namely points TA 07, TA 16, and TA 01 shown in Fig. 6. (c), (d), and (f). The two peaks in an H/V curve can occur due to impedance contrast in adjacent soil layers that can be indicated by the different values of shear wave velocity. Generally, points with two peaks have relatively low velocities at the surface and higher velocities in deeper soil layers. Impedance contrast in this case is supported by the results of the geotechnical investigation at point TS BH-11 (TA 07) which showed that the top soil contained loose soil with a thickness of 2 m. The soil layer below the topsoil showed an N-SPT value of 60. In addition, the V̅s values obtained for TA 07, TA 16, and TA 01 were 180. 11 m/s, 161.35 m/s, and 150.15 m/s at the top of the soil layer and V̅s values of 580.29 m/s, 579.36 m/s, and 349.05 m/s at depths below 15 m. The reliability of using curves with two different peaks is indicated by the considerable difference in values between the values of f0 and f1.
The ground profiles generated from processing the H/V curves show the values of compression wave velocity (Vp) and shear wave velocity (Vs) in m/s for each soil layer as shown in Fig. 7. Ground profiles obtained at 6 sample points show a similar curve pattern. The curve shows that the Vs value in the soil layer up to a depth of 20 m is below 400 m/s. At deeper soil layers the Vs value increases to above 500 m/s. These values indicate that the soil layers at the site at depths below 20 m are significantly denser than the upper layers.
The analysis of soil density levels in deeper soil layers was supported by geotechnical investigation data including standard penetration test data to a depth of 40m. Figure 8. shows the comparison of N-SPT and Vs at 6 sample points. The Vs values at borehole points TB BH-01, TB BH-04, TS BH-11, TS BH-27, TT BH-04, and TT BH-08 were obtained through N-SPT correlation using the Brandenberg et al. (2010) as shown in Eq. (1). Vs values at points TA 05, TA 10, TA 07, TA 16, TA 14, and TA 01 were obtained by referring to ground profile curves through microtremor.
The Vs value derived from the N-SPT correlation is relatively smaller than the Vs value obtained through microtremor data. At a total of 31 borehole points, the Vs values were consistently below 400 m/s with V̅s values between 210.98m/s and 271.04 m/s.
The highest V̅s value is at the TS BH 11 point with a value of 271.04 m/s. On the other hand, the V̅s value obtained through microtremor data at 18 microtremor test points has significantly varied values ranging from 227.99 m/s to 418.39 m/s. A total of three microtremor test points have values below 300 m/s, namely test points TA 04, TA 05, and TA 12. The highest V̅s value is at TA 08, which is 418.39 m/s. The ground profile representation shown in Fig. 8. indicates the Vs values calculation through both N-SPT correlation and microtremor testing adequately describes the density at the site.
The determination of the site classification in this study was performed by referring to Table 2 using the average shear wave velocity (V̅s) and average standard penetration resistance (N̅) parameters through Eq. (2) and Eq. (3). The site class at the site is dominated by medium soil (SD) at 27 borehole test points and 14 microtremor measurement points. Based on the N-SPT correlation, two test points are considered hard soil (SC), namely TS BH-05 and TS BH-11, while TS BH-13 and TS BH-15 are soft soil (SE). A total of four microtremor measurement points are considered as hard soil (SC), namely TA 06, TA07, TA 08, and TA 16.
3.1 PGA Determination based on microtremor measurement
Microtremor measurements recorded frequencies in the interval of 1.26 Hz to 3.66 Hz. PGA calculation was carried out using a 2006 earthquake scenario with 6.3 Mw, which obtained values varying from 0.126 g to 0.214 g.
Figure 9 (a) presents the distribution of PGA values derived through microtremor analysis. The PGA values are quite uniform on the west and east sides of the Progo River. However, the PGA value on the side of the river has a lower value. The microtremor recordings at the point show that at the point located in the center of the river, the predominant period value is higher compared to the points on the west and east sides.
Based on the analysis of the geotechnical investigation results and the determination of the site class, the soil conditions in the central part of the Progo River are relatively loose. Several points in this area are classified in the SE (soft soil) site class. Soils with lower density tend to have large period values so wave amplification at this location is very likely to occur. This large period value indicates a slower wave propagation time, resulting in a lower acceleration value.
Predictions of PGA values that occurred due to the Yogyakarta earthquake in 2006 have been performed by Elnashai et al. (2006) using the data available at YOGI and BJI stations located approximately 10 km and 90 km from the earthquake epicenter. The results of the reconstructive analysis carried out using vibration recordings at YOGI station gave the results of horizontal peak ground acceleration at around 0.197 g to 0.336 g while vertical peak ground acceleration is in the range of 0.183 g to 0.303 g with a mean value of 0.262 g in the East-West direction, 0.270 g in the North-South direction, and 0.243 g in the vertical direction. Meanwhile, PGA values at the BJI station 90 km away from the earthquake epicenter tend to be smaller around 0.028 g in the North-South direction and 0.020 g in the vertical direction.
The determination of PGA values based on microtremor recording data has been carried out by Fathani et al. (2006) on two scenarios of the Yogyakarta earthquake in 2006 with variations in epicenter distance. The first scenario was conducted using epicenter data referring to Indonesia Meteorological and Geophysical Agency (BMG) resulting in values of 0.140 g to 0.480 g. The second scenario was carried out using epicenter data issued by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) resulting in a map of the distribution of PGA values with a value range of 0.146 g to 0.534 g.
The use of microtremor recording data in determining PGA was also carried out by Pawirodikromo (2020) on 9 microtremor test points in the Special Region of Yogyakarta resulting in a predominant frequency range of 0.5 Hz to 12 Hz and resulting PGA values ranging between 0.05g to 0.45g. In Srandakan District, the PGA value obtained based on microtremor testing data at point 1 Argodadi, Sedayu is about 0.20g.
Fathani and Wilopo (2017) conducted research in Yogyakarta City, which is in the north direction of Bantul Regency, resulting in values varying from 0.05g to 0.30g. While Siadari et al., (2023) conducted the microzonation study in Magelang District, Central Java Province, located on the northwest side of the Special Region of Yogyakarta, directly adjacent to Sleman District resulting in values of 0.036g to 0.088g.
Considering these previous studies, the range of values generated based on microtremor measurement at 18 test points in the study area is close to the range of PGA values recorded at the YOGI station. This shows that the determination of PGA values using microtremor recording data in certain areas is suitable. However, to increase the accuracy of the calculation, data support from geotechnical investigation is necessary to represent local site conditions.
3.2 PGA Determination Based on Attenuation Relationships
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) in this study was conducted through two approaches, applying the attenuation equation based on considering the nearest earthquake source and controlling earthquakes that cause significant damage.
Based on previous studies (Soehaimi et al., 2019; Ulinnuha et al., 2022), the Opak faults are one of the potential sources of earthquakes that are estimated to cause earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 Mw to 7.0 Mw. The attenuation equation model used in the deterministic analysis in its consideration of the Opak Fault, namely the New Generation Attenuation Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE NGAWest 2) through the equations of Boore et al. (2014), Campbell and Bozorgnia (2014), Chiou and Youngs (2014). The weighting in this deterministic analysis was carried out regarding the logic tree framework as shown in Fig. 3, which is 0.33; 0.34; and 0.33 respectively. The amplification factor value of 1.50 (150% median) was used to represent the 84th percentile. Thus, the PGA value obtained from these equations ranges from 0.475 g to 0.549 g, as shown in Fig. 9 (b).
Another approach was taken for the controlling earthquake, which was estimated to produce a significant damage on the study area. This analysis was performed using Kanno et al. (2006) equation, as shown in, as shown in Eq. (13). The 2006 earthquake in Yogyakarta with 6.3 Mw scenario was used, resulting in a PGA range of 0.266 g to 0.394 g. PGA distribution map using the attenuation relationship by Kanno et al. (2006) is shown in Fig. 9 (c).
Figure 9 (b) and (c) show that there is uniformity in the distribution of PGA values obtained by the deterministic method with the GMPE NGA West 2 attenuation equation and the attenuation equation of Kanno et al. (2006). The PGA values obtained by the deterministic calculation method through both attenuation equations tend to be higher on the east side. This study shows that the more proximity the site to the earthquake source, the more the PGA value is generated.
The development of deterministic analysis in seismic hazard analysis has resulted in the development of attenuation equations with various approaches. Elnashai et al. (2006) conducted deterministic analyses for several areas in the Special Region of Yogyakarta, using the attenuation equations of Ambraseys et al. (2005) and Campbell (2003). In Bantul Regency, the PGA values obtained are in the range of 0.121 g to 0.3591 g in soft soil and 0.1127 g to 0.2939 g in stiff soil through the attenuation equation of Ambraseys et al. (2005). While using Campbell (2003), PGA values produced in the range of 0.122 g to 0.492 g in soft soil and 0.122 g to 0.449 g in stiff soil.
Siadari et al. (2023) conducted a deterministic analysis of the Yogyakarta earthquake in 2006 using the attenuation equations of Kanno et al. (2006) and Fukushima and Tanaka (1990) in Magelang District, Central Java Province. The values obtained tend to be smaller, in the range of 0.115 g to 0.181 g using Kanno's et al. (2006) attenuation model. Whereas Fukushima's (1990) attenuation model resulted in a value of 0.082 g to 0.114 g. The difference in values may occur because the research location of Siadari et al. (2023) is in Central Java Province with a distance to the earthquake source estimated at 20 km to 35 km
The deterministic analysis uses an approach to the potential earthquake that generates the most damage. In this context, the identification of earthquake sources in this analysis is done by selecting earthquake sources that are considered to have the most potential earthquakes with large magnitudes and cause the most damage. Several parameters are considered in the deterministic analysis, namely magnitude, distance, and other parameters related to the earthquake source. This analysis tends not to consider site conditions and the probability of reoccurrence. Therefore, when compared to the values obtained through microtremor test data recording and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, the PGA values obtained through deterministic analysis tend to be higher. This indicates that the deterministic analysis process is often considered more conservative because it produces the maximum possible value.
The application of deterministic seismic hazard analysis is more appropriate when used in locations near earthquake sources with the potential to trigger earthquakes with strong magnitudes. In addition, deterministic analysis is also suitable if used in the planning and designing of earthquake-resistant structures, especially in strategic or vital infrastructure where the impact of damage is highly avoided. It can be concluded that one of the important steps in deterministic seismic hazard analysis is to thoroughly identify the study area, the earthquake sources, and the design of the planned structure.
3.3 PGA Determination based on the Indonesian Seismic Code
The PGA value through probabilistic analysis in the study area resulted in a uniform value at all review points, which is 0.414g. This value is then multiplied by an amplification factor according to the site class for each test point. The overall site class at the research location is in the SD (medium soil) site class; however, there are several location points with SC (hard soil) and SE (soft soil) site classes.
The site class coefficients for each site class SC, SD, and SE were obtained through a linear interpolation calculation of the amplification factor (FPGA) as shown in Table 2. Linear interpolation calculation was performed on the PGA value of 0.414 g for each site class SC, SD, and SE resulting values of 1.00, 1.086, and 0.90, respectively. As a result, the PGA values obtained for each site class are 0.414 g, 0.450 g, and 0.373 g, as shown in Fig. 9 (d). The lower PGA values in the SE (soft soil) site class indicate the conformity of the distribution pattern of PGA values with the PGA values obtained through microtremor analysis.
Pawirodikromo (2022) conducted a probabilistic analysis study in Pleret District, the northern part of Bantul Regency using a 3-D seismic source with a 10% probability exceeding 50 years of building lifetime. The resulting PGA value in bedrock is 0.254 g to 0.289 g. The amplification factor used is 1.401 and 1.426 resulting in a PGA value at the surface of 0.398 g to 0.412 g.
The PGA values obtained in the southern part of Bantul Regency tend to be higher. This can occur because this study considers a 75-year design life with a 7% exceedance probability and a 1000-year return period. The larger the use of design life and return period will result in a larger final PGA value because it indicates the broader use of data used. The probabilistic analysis in this case reviews all earthquake mechanism schemes and historical earthquakes that have occurred by considering site conditions. These considerations result in the PGA value through probabilistic analysis tend to be smaller when compared to the PGA value from deterministic calculations.
Moreover, probabilistic methods in seismic hazard analysis are appropriate for various types of infrastructure. However, in planning and designing infrastructure close to the earthquake source (less than 10 km), the use of deterministic analysis or Site-Specific Response Analysis will produce more appropriate ground motion predictions.