A total of 298 women who underwent surgery between April 2004 and March 2019 was enrolled in this validation study. Demographic and clinicopathological features of the patients at baseline by RI-DR risk category are shown in Table 1. According to the criteria of the gene expression assay, 145 (48.7%) patients had a RI-DR score below 29, which means a low-risk of having distant recurrence, and 153 (51.3%) patients had a RI-DR score of greater than or equal to 29, which means a high-risk of having distant recurrence. With an overall median follow-up time of 47.4 (IQR 29.4–71.7) months, 36 patients were identified as having a distant recurrence event during the period study (respectively, 7 and 29 in the low- and high-risk group). The relapse event occurred in an additional 24 patients with, respectively, 10 and 14 patients being assigned in the good and poor prognosis group. A majority of patients were older than 50 years at surgery (54.4%), had luminal-like subtype (85.6%), N0 stage (60.8%), cancer grade I-II cancer (81.5%), no prominent lymphovascular invasion (83.4%) and were not treated with adjuvant chemotherapy (66.9%). In the high-risk group, patients were more likely to undergo a mastectomy (p-value = 0.0187), to have nodal metastasis (p-value ≤ 0.0001), a high cancer grade (p-value ≤ 0.0001), prominent lymphovascular invasion (p-value ≤ 0.0001), a negative ER/PR status (p-values ≤ 0.0001) and to carry the overexpressed HER2-receptor protein (p-value = 0.0018). In a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model in which distant recurrence was evaluated in relation to the RI-DR score, N stage, cancer grade, lymph vessel invasion, adjuvant chemotherapy and RI-DR risk group were not statistically significant (Table S1).
Table 1
Baseline characteristics of the subjects by risk level of distant recurrence (n = 298)
Variable | Low-risk of DR (n = 145) | High-risk of DR (n = 153) | P-value |
Median follow-up time | 47.1 (26.7–70.1) | 47.7 (29.9–72.0) | 0.7105 |
(months), IQR |
Age (years) | | | |
<=50 (n = 136) | 65 (47.8) | 71 (52.2) | 0.7846 |
>50 (n = 162) | 80 (49.4) | 82 (50.6) |
N stage | | | |
N0 (n = 180) | 122 (67.8) | 58 (32.2) | ≤ 0.0001 |
N1 (n = 80) | 21 (26.2) | 80 (73.8) |
N2 (n = 15) | 0 (0.0) | 15 (100.0) |
Unknown (n = 2) | 2 | 0 | |
Cancer grade | | | |
I (n = 51) | 36 (70.6) | 15 (29.4) | ≤ 0.0001 |
II (n = 191) | 101 (52.9) | 90 (47.1) |
III (n = 55) | 7 (12.7) | 48 (87.3) |
Unknown (n = 1) | 1 | 0 | |
Molecular subtype | | | |
Luminal-like (n = 255) | 141 (55.3) | 114 (44.7) | ≤ 0.0001 |
HER2/TNBC (n = 43) | 4 (9.3) | 39 (90.7) |
Axillary lymph node | | | |
Negative (n = 180) | 122 (67.8) | 58 (32.2) | ≤ 0.0001 |
Positive (n = 118) | 23 (19.5) | 95 (80.5) |
Lymphovascular invasion | | | |
Absent/focal (n = 242) | 142 (58.7) | 100 (41.3) | ≤ 0.0001 |
Prominent (n = 48) | 2 (4.2) | 46 (95.8) |
Unknown (n = 8) | 1 | 7 | |
Estrogen receptor | | | |
Negative (n = 29) | 0 (0.0) | 29 (100.0) | ≤ 0.0001 |
Positive (n = 269) | 145 (53.9) | 124 (46.1) |
Progesterone receptor | | | |
Negative (n = 49) | 7 (14.3) | 42 (85.7) | ≤ 0.0001 |
Positive (n = 249) | 138 (55.4) | 111 (44.6) |
HER2 overexpression (IHC score (+)) | | |
Negative (n = 275) | 141 (51.3) | 134 (48.7) | 0.0018 |
Positive (n = 23) | 4 (17.4) | 19 (82.6) |
Surgical treatment | | | |
Mastectomy (n = 162) | 69 (42.6) | 93 (57.4) | 0.0187 |
BCS (n = 135) | 76 (56.3) | 59 (43.7) |
Unknown (n = 1) | 0 | 1 | |
Adjuvant chemotherapy | | | |
No (n = 190) | 121 (63.7) | 69 (36.3) | ≤ 0.0001 |
Yes (n = 94) | 17 (18.1) | 77 (81.9) |
Unknown (n = 14) | 7 | 7 | |
Adjuvant hormone therapy | | | |
No (n = 40) | 9 (22.5) | 31 (77.5) | ≤ 0.0001 |
Yes (n = 244) | 136 (55.7) | 108 (44.3) |
Unknown (n = 14) | 0 | 14 | |
PMRT & RNI | | | |
No (n = 134) | 71 (53.0) | 63 (47.0) | 0.9511 |
Yes (n = 97) | 51 (52.6) | 46 (47.4) |
Unknown (n = 67) | 23 | 44 | |
Locoregional recurrence | | | |
Free (n = 267) | 135 (50.6) | 132 (49.4) | 0.0536 |
Yes (n = 31) | 10 (32.3) | 21 (67.7) |
Distant recurrence | | | |
Free (n = 262) | 138 (52.7) | 124 (47.3) | 0.0002 |
Yes (n = 36) | 7 (19.4) | 29 (80.6) |
Table S1
Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis of demographics and clinicopathological factors of patients associated with the likelihood of distant recurrence (n = 298)
| Crude model | | Adjusted model |
Variable | HR (95% CI) | P-value | | HR (95% CI) | P-value |
Age (years) | | | | | |
>50 vs. ≤50 | 1.045 (0.54–2.02) | 0.8948 | | | |
N stage | | | | | |
N1/N2 vs. N0 | 2.1493 (1.10–4.21) | 0.0259 | | 0.758 (0.31–1.88) | 0.5527 |
Cancer grade | | | | | |
II vs. I | 4.251 (1.00–18.16) | 0.0507 | | 3.272 (0.75–14.23) | 0.1163 |
III vs. I | 7.096 (1.58–31.81) | 0.0105 | | 3.303 (0.65–16.80) | 0.1499 |
Lymph vessel invasion | | | | | |
Prominent vs. Absent/focal | 3.331 (1.70–6.53) | 0.0005 | | 2.224 (0.99–4.98) | 0.0513 |
Adjuvant chemotherapy | | | | | |
Yes vs. No | 2.442 (1.26–4.72) | 0.0080 | | 1.487 (0.63–3.53) | 0.3720 |
PMRT & RNI | | | | | |
Yes vs. No | 1.698 (0.83–3.48) | 0.1490 | | | |
Adjuvant hormone therapy | | | | | |
Yes vs. No | 0.537 (0.24–1.20) | 0.1300 | | | |
RI - DR risk group | | | | | |
Low vs. high | 0.278 (0.12–0.64) | 0.0024 | | 0.483 (0.18–1.31) | 0.1520 |
Table 1. Baseline characteristics of the subjects by risk level of distant recurrence (n = 298)
Tables 2a and 2b show the 5- and 10-year Kaplan-Meier DRFS and RFS rates of female patients in the good and poor prognosis groups. Figure S1 illustrates the Kaplan-Meier curves of primary and secondary outcomes.
Table 2. Estimated survival rates at 5 and 10 years according to RI-DR risk classification
(2a) Primary outcomes: DRFS estimates
Risk group by population | 5-year DRFS, % (95% CI) | 10-year DRFS, % (95% CI) | P-value | Crude HR (95% CI) |
All patients (n = 298) | | | 0.0012 | |
Low-risk (n = 145) | 91.9 (86.1–98.1) | 91.9 (86.1–98.1) | | --- |
High-risk (n = 153) | 83.1 (76.6–90.1) | 62.9 (49.8–79.4) | 3.59 (1.57–8.20) |
Luminal-like patients (n = 255) | | 0.0210 | |
Low-risk (n = 141) | 91.6 (85.5–98.1) | 91.6 (85.5–98.1) | | --- |
High-risk (n = 114) | 88.8 (82.4–95.7) | 65.3 (50.3–84.8) | | 2.71 (1.12–6.53) |
HER2/TNBC patients (n = 43) | | 0.2500 | |
Low-risk (n = 4) | 100.0 | 100.0 | | --- |
High-risk (n = 39) | 70 (56.4–86.7) | 61.2 (43.6–85.9) | | --- |
Abbreviations: HR hazard ratio, CI confidence interval |
Bold values denote statistical significance at the p < 0.05 level.
(2b) Secondary outcomes: RFS estimates
Risk group by population | 5-year RFS, % (95% CI) | 10-year RFS, % (95% CI) | P-value | Crude HR (95% CI) |
All patients (n = 298) | | | 0.0025 | |
Low-risk (n = 145) | 84.3 (77.0-92.2) | 78.2 (68.2–89.8) | | --- |
High-risk (n = 153) | 72.7 (65.2–81.0) | 53.6 (41.6–69.2) | 2.32 (1.32–4.07) |
Luminal-like patients (n = 255) | | 0.0082 | |
Low-risk (n = 141) | 85.5 (78.3–93.4) | 79.3 (69.2–91.0) | | --- |
High-risk (n = 114) | 76.5 (68.1–86.0) | 54.2 (40.3–72.8) | | 2.28 (1.22–4.26) |
HER2/TNBC patients (n = 43) | | 0.7000 | |
Low-risk (n = 4) | 50.0 (18.8–100) | 50.0 (18.8–100) | | --- |
High-risk (n = 39) | 63.5 (49.8–80.8) | 55.5 (38.9–79.3) | | 0.75 (0.17–3.31) |
Abbreviations: HR hazard ratio, CI confidence interval |
Bold values denote statistical significance at the p < 0.05 level.
Patients with less favorable prognosis had worse outcomes than patients with good prognosis in all populations, with, respectively, a 10-year DRFS of 62.9% [95% CI, 49.8–79.4%] and 91.9% [95% CI, 86.1–98.1%] in the two groups (p-value = 0.0012). Women in the high-risk group had statistically significantly an increasing risk of distant recurrence related to women classified in the low-risk group (crude HR = 3.59 [95% CI, 1.57–8.20]). The same observation was valid when considering only luminal-like subtype patients in the analysis; however, the sample size of non-luminal-like breast cancer patients was too small to draw a confident conclusion. The relapse-free survival rates – the secondary endpoint – for all patients were 72.7% [95% CI, 65.2–81.0%] at 5 years and 53.6% [95% CI, 41.6–69.2%] at 10 years in the high-risk group of distant recurrence. Compared to the low-risk group, the two survival curves were statistically significantly different from each other when considering all patients and luminal-like subtype patients (p-values of 0.0025 and 0.0082, respectively).
Figure 2a shows the observed distribution of distant recurrence events by RI-DR score interval in all patients and Fig. 3 the predicted probability of distant recurrence for each RI-DR score. As a large group of patients (63.7%) not being treated with adjuvant chemotherapy were assigned in the low-risk group (Table 1), the observed probability of distant recurrence in this subpopulation were calculated and displayed in Fig. 2b.
Figure 2. Histogram of the frequency distribution of distant recurrence by RI-DR score interval in patients with EBC. X-axis stands for the RI-DR score, with a 10-score interval in each column; Y-axis is the frequency of distant recurrence and distant recurrence-free events. The blue color represents DR; the orange color displays DR-free. The study sample is stratified by (2a) all patients (n = 298) and (2b) patients without adjuvant chemotherapy treatment (n = 190).
(2a) All patients (n = 298)
(2b) Patients without adjuvant chemotherapy treatment (n = 190)
The observed 5-year distant recurrence-free rate was more than 97% for patients with a RI-DR score < 11 and decreased to 87.5% for those having with a RI-DR score above 30. In the subset of patients having a RI-DR score greater than 50, the distant recurrence-free rate dropped to around 50% (Fig. 2a). For patients not receiving adjuvant chemotherapy (n = 190), the risk of having distant recurrence still notably increased for patients with a higher RI-DR score (Fig. 2b).
Through Royston-Parmar modeling, the risk of distant recurrence rose constantly with increasing RI-DR score. The predicted 10-year risk of developing DR in patients with breast cancer was nearly up to 80% when the RI-DR score reaches its maximum value (Fig. 3). In addition, as shown in the forest plot (Figure S2), the overall HR for distant recurrence was 1.031 [95% CI, 1.017–1.046] per unit RI-DR score increment. For each increment of the RI-DR score, most prognostic factors were associated with a worse DRFS.