Seasonal flooding plays a crucial role in nutrient cycling, water purification, aquatic diversity, ecosystem productivity, and the evolution of flooded ecosystems (Junk, 1989; Junk et al., 2011; Castello et al., 2015). Belo Monte Hydropower Plant diverted the Xingu River and subtracted most of VGX´s water discharge, resulting in a large modification of the biocultural habitats, along a river stretch of 130 km (Pezzuti et al., 2018). Our results show that the drastic changes in the duration, amplitude, and timing of the flood along this river stretch (Pezzuti et al. 2018; Juruna et al., 2024 in review) are causing a massive depletion of important igapó ecosystem components and associated services.
4.1. Altered ecology of flooded forests
The environmental impact assessment report from the period before the Belo Monte Hydropower Plant construction described the understory of these forests as "clean, with limited regeneration of canopy species” (MPEG, 2008). This is expected in an undisturbed and highly flooded igapó, where flood-induced environmental filtering favors seedlings from flood-tolerant habitat specialists that have been adapted to these conditions over evolutionary timescales (Fig.5A; Wittmann and Junk, 2003; Wittmann et al., 2010). These plants are an important autotrophic source at the base of seasonally flooded food webs. However, the reduction in water flow in the VGX is allowing species replacement, favoring less flood-tolerant individuals that are more competitive. In addition, the lack of seasonal floods affects highly flood-tolerant specialist species by an alteration in their dispersion cycle, as most of these species are effectively dispersed through water and aquatic dispersers (i.e., Kubitzki and Ziburski, 1994; Correa et al., 2007; Weiss et al., 2016). Together, these factors potentially drive a breakdown of important ecosystem services in the affected igapó forests (Fig. 5B).
The most extreme observation during the monitoring was the elevated mortality of plant species in the sarobais. Sarobais are critical habitats because they support high abundance of flowers and fruits during the initial months of the river's rise, when the forest has not yet become fully flooded, supporting nutritional resources for fish, turtles and people (Pezzuti et al., 2024). In some places, vegetation suppression was so strong that it could even be detected in satellite images, despite the patchy distribution of this vegetation kind. The plant species of sarobais grow upon rocks or extremely thin soils and have evolved long and deep roots to access water during periods of low water levels (Cunha and Ferreira, 2012). However, reduced river water discharge after the damming caused groundwater levels to drop below root horizons, likely affecting trees particularly during the dry season, which in this region may extend to up to 5 months/year. Moreover, surface temperatures of gneiss/migmatitic rocks and laminated ironstones of the VGX were reported to reach temperatures of up to 64°C (unpublished data). Therefore, we hypothesized two non-exclusive causes of sarobais death: prolonged periods with high temperatures that cause cell degradation or/and water deficit causing hydraulic failure or cavitation (Gessler et al., 2018; Hartmann et al., 2018).
In the absence of flooding, terra-firme upland species are increasingly invading the igapó, and, in some places, these species already dominate the understory. Eventually, these colonizers may outcompete and cause igapó species populations decline, as observed in Balbina Hydropower Plant, 30 years after dam implementation (Rocha et al., 2019; Lobo et al., 2019). High herbivory and leaf-cutter ant nests are triggered by the increased density of seedlings, coupled with the lack of floods that normally prevent nests from establishing (Adis, 1982). Seedlings are particularly palatable and vulnerable to herbivores because they tend to have less chemical defenses and lignified cells than mature plants (Eichhorn et al., 2010) and could attract leaf-cutter ants (Atta spp.). This corroborates earlier observations that leaf-cutter ant nests typically increase in disturbed areas in tropical forests (Terborgh et al., 2001; Wirth et al., 2007).
Another evidence of the ecological services breakdown in the igapó is the observation of abundant fish-dispersed diaspores rotting on dry ground. One common adaptation for igapó life is seed and fruit dispersal by water and fishes (Kubitzki and Ziburski, 1994) and many tree species synchronize their fruiting with the high-water season (Giarrizzo and Camargo, 2009). This is true for 22 out of 26 dominant plant species in the igapó forest of the middle Xingu River (Fig.5C; Giarrizzo and Camargo, 2009). Under natural conditions, these fruits fall in the water. Drought-induced reduction of fish stocks and fruit quality poses a serious risk to food security and autonomy for Indigenous and ribeirinhos in Amazonia given that igapó fruits are the primary food source for people and aquatic fauna (Camargo, 2013; Pezzuti et al., 2024). Fish stocks in VGX are potentially threatened in several ways. First, flooding creates essential nursing habitats for aquatic species and drought-induced reproduction failure leads to fish population declines. Secondly, the drought disrupts the delicate nutrient recycling process; lack of nutrient input provided by the flood reduces the production of fish-dispersed fruits, compromising food availability. Third, fruits that are eventually produced, commonly fall in dry ground, once again compromising food intake for the aquatic fauna. Our results suggest that at least the third process is ongoing. Further research is needed to confirm whether the first two processes are also active and whether they operate cumulatively.
In fact, there was a strong shift from fish-based to meat-based diets in the Yudjás communities before and after the closure of the Belo Monte Hydropower Plant (Lopes et al., 2024). According to the reports from Yudjá leaders (Pezzuti et al., 2018), this is because fish individuals of the preferred species became thin, with less fat. The asynchronization of phenological processes and the flood cycle have far-reaching consequences for the local socio-biodiversity because fish were the main source of protein for these populations. Finally, it is important to stress that the significant shifts in vegetation structure, composition, and high mortality started to occur only two years after the full Belo Monte Hydropower Plant operation. The real magnitude of the impacts may only be known after up to decades after the establishment of the hydropower plants (Moran et al., 2018; Schöngart et al., 2021). Adult trees of floodplain specialist species may show a gradual loss in vitality to the altered flood pulse over several years or even decades, as reported for river stretches of up to 120 km downstream of the Balbina hydroelectric dam, where the mass mortality of adult individuals from several highly flood-tolerant tree species started only up to 10-20 years after dam closure (Resende et al., 2019; Schöngart et al., 2021).
4.2 Research agenda in VGX seasonally flooded ecosystems
The extent of the seasonally flooded vegetation suppression, the mechanisms of drought-induced mortality in VGX, and the consequences of vegetation changes to the fauna and livelihoods remain unknown. Therefore, it is urgent to:
- Quantify plant mortality, especially in the sarobais
- Determine which species are more vulnerable
- Understand the physiological mechanisms of plant mortality
- Determine if the vegetation in VGX is reaching a tipping point
- Determine action to revert or at least minimize the detected vegetation decay before it is too late
- Determine if water dispersed species can adjust their phenology to a shorter flooding season
- Determine the cascade effect of lower input of fruits into the river in the food-chain, how it affects aquatic wildlife and food security of local people.Our hypothesis is that most of the sarobais species are extremely vulnerable and will die after accumulated years of water stress, being vegetation loss irreversible since succession over bare-rock is an extremely slow process. On the other hand, some igapó species may be able to adapt to the new conditions and co-exist with the terra-firme species.
These questions can be addressed by benefiting from the in-depth local knowledge and regular monitoring of both affected and non-affected areas in the recently established plots. Moreover, rapidly evolving remote sensing products such as airborne LiDAR and high-resolution satellite images can provide time series and detect changes in spectral patterns that indicate variations in vegetation status. The answers would bring applied insights on how to mitigate habitat loss both at the VGX and at the Amazon Basin scale. The VGX represents a small-scale experiment of a more generalized drought trend in the basin due to climate change and watershed deforestation (Rizzo et al., 2020). The dam-induced disruption of the Xingu River's hydrology, when combined with climate change and deforestation, creates a negative feedback that intensifies ecological degradation. Dams alter natural water flow and disrupt seasonal flooding (Schöngart et al., 2021), while climate change further destabilizes water availability and temperature patterns. Large-scale deforestation exacerbates these effects by increasing temperatures through enhanced sensible heat loss and decreasing evapotranspiration, which reduces air humidity and impairs water recycling in the atmosphere (Covey et al., 2021). Frequent biomass burning linked to deforestation in this region (Brando et al., 2020) leads to significant aerosol emissions, further polluting the atmosphere. This convergence of factors accelerates biodiversity loss and reduced fertility, ultimately harming local communities that rely on the river and surrounding ecosystems for their livelihoods. It would increase our understanding of the real dimensions of the impact of the Belo Monte Hydropower Plant and provide information towards a fair sharing of the Xingu waters. Finally, it is important to highlight that local people's involvement, transparency, and open access to raw data are crucial to ensure the reliability of the findings.
4.3. Final consideration: More water to VGX
Norte Energia inc. regulates the flow of water into VGX, determining the fate of the seasonally flooded ecosystems and of indigenous and ribeirinhos food security and livelihood. The currently applied water discharge regimes are extremely low and distinct from the natural flood cycles. The ongoing processes of depletion of seasonally flooded ecosystems will likely result in irreversible socio-environmental harm. Vegetation mortality may be worsened by the interplay between the extreme drought events trend as a consequence of global warming (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/) and local impact caused by the Belo Monte Hydropower Plant. The impact on seasonally floodable environments and species' life cycles has far-reaching consequences for the Indigenous and ribeirinhos communities, jeopardizing their sociocultural way of life and access to essential resources for rituals and traditional fisheries. Conservation efforts and research conducted independently and involving local communities are essential to better understand and address the long-term consequences of these structural shifts.
The most effective mitigation measure for the impacts reported here would be to return the VGX hydrological conditions as close as possible to the natural flood pulse. Access to water is a basic right and should not be sold as a commodity in Amazonia or anywhere. Efficiently restoring natural hydrological patterns and mitigating factors contributing to reduced water flow is crucial for preserving the ecological integrity and biodiversity of these unique Amazonian forests and the ecosystem services they provide.